The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[MakeeLearn]

Canoerebel

There is some risk in doing these things, but I think my analysis is correct.

[paullus99]

Just my $0.02 from reviewing the last few weeks of the AAR. It doesn't appear that John is either itching for a fight or ready to commit his fleet in any meaningful way to interfere with your operations around Formosa.

If he was preparing to do so, he wouldn't be frolicking in the DEI and allowing you to smash all of his airfields within effective range of the island.

I fully expect that he'd be happy to commit the IJAAF in large quantities, should he be able to, but everything points to his wanting to work around the periphery - and maybe concentrate on getting supplies to places where he thinks be can sting you.

[Lowpe]

I am Mr. Naval Bombardment here, in this AAR at least, and if you suspect a CAP trap over a base the counter is naval bombardment or sweeps or both.

Also, here is an interesting tactic to pull out of your hat..for use when night bombing opens up.

Drop a ton of aerial mines on Palembang or Singers when you feel the KB is enroute to said base, and watch what he does. File that information for later when you might be KB hunting. You won't hit anything with the mines, but it may scare him and stop his KB from refueling for a day or two so that you can predict the KB's action with a fair bit of certainty.

[Canoerebel]

A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure that KB was heading to Soerabaja to refuel. I considered sending Superforts to drop mines there. I elected not to because I wasn't sure whether aerial mining fell into the "no night bombing" rule. That expires in two days, I think (it might be one day). So I'll look for the right chance to do exactly what you're suggesting, Lowpe.

Paullus - you're right. From a military standpoint it's amazing how little fight John has put up for Indochina and Formosa (especially the latter). He must be solely hung up on the gaming aspect now - Victory Points.

[Flicker]

Good job so far CR.

I can respect someone (like John) who gets hung up on Victory Points. The gaming aspect is important to a game.

Personally, I like Wenchow because it makes supply, but for you, Foochow is a better air base. I'm still looking forward to a Pearl River (China, not MS) campaign, along with a Red River (Viet Nam, not Louisiana) campaign. If I were John I'd be collapsing my defense east along the railroad to a Line west of Shanghai. Remember that if people warn you about getting involved in a land war in Asia, that YOU are Asia. However, MacArthur did urge caution about committing US troops to a land war in Asia (ensuring that American interests were considered).

[palioboy2]

The ironic thing is. I think his victory points tactics is going to end up costing him even more victory points because of all the strategic advantages you will have.

[Canoerebel]

My comments about John focusing on Victory Points were not a criticism of his strategy. This is a game and the VP system is there for a reason. It works. I like the VP system and the way it provides the Japanese player with a fun way to work the end game. If I were a JFB, I'd work VP hard, twisting reality into all kinds of knots while working the system.

I suspect that John is not by nature a VP guy. We know he's a Navy man by preference, and I suspect that simulating real war Japanese doctrine (albeit, beefed up by mods and bolstered by house rules) is psychologically important to him. Ordinarily, I think he'd have attacked by now, in keeping with the Bushido Code. I suspect that he hasn't done so partly in response to some excellent tutelage by smart Forumites urging him to work the VP system hard. John has responded, and the current score is a testament to how competitive VPs can make the game.

But I think John has backed so far away from his natural tendencies that it's affecting his enjoyment of the game. His VP-productive carrier raid in SoPac while Death Star was in the East China Sea was an example. And the current position of KB in the DEI, while the Allies have been invading coastal China and shutting down Formosa's airfields, is another good example. There are good VP reasons for doing what he's doing, but militarily he's contorted himself into a painful and dangerous position.

Things can still change. There's a chance of a major action in the DEI in the next day or two that could help him a lot. But if the Allied carriers and supply TFs do link up with Death Star in two or three days, what does John do then? Does he keep working the VP angle, with KB steaming around the DEI looking for something to hit while the Allies reduce Formosa to ruins? Will he be satisfied working the VP angle, or at some point does he give in to the historic Japanese ethic? I'm guessing the latter.

[Lowpe]

It would be really hard to find a Japanese player that would suffer thru the final year of the game without the VP mechanic.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I suspect that John is not by nature a VP guy. We know he's a Navy man by preference, and I suspect that simulating real war Japanese doctrine (albeit, beefed up by mods and bolstered by house rules) is psychologically important to him. Ordinarily, I think he'd have attacked by now, in keeping with the Bushido Code. I suspect that he hasn't done so partly in response to some excellent tutelage by smart Forumites urging him to work the VP system hard. John has responded, and the current score is a testament to how competitive VPs can make the game.

But I think John has backed so far away from his natural tendencies that it's affecting his enjoyment of the game. His VP-productive carrier raid in SoPac while Death Star was in the East China Sea was an example. And the current position of KB in the DEI, while the Allies have been invading coastal China and shutting down Formosa's airfields, is another good example. There are good VP reasons for doing what he's doing, but militarily he's contorted himself into a painful and dangerous position.

I think that until recently he didn't realize that AE is a series of games, not one. He's only ever played the first one. He likes the first one a lot. But that one is over.

I think you're being prudent, but I also think you worry a lot about what he's going to do when you don't need to any more. Was it Patton who said something like "Stop telling me what they're going to do. Tell me what you're going to do to kill the sumbitches"?

I think you want a big naval battle as much as John used to. The game now is strat bombing.

[witpqs]

John is also playing the clock. That route for your convoys plus the need to pull back major carrier assets to escort them chews up additional time. If you get sloppy trying to save time - well, how many VP for a 100 Liberty ships and/or Victory ships? Add a bunch of LCU to that. John can only threaten that extended SLOC with a navy. If and when he gives battle any sort of victory will make things easier and quicker for you.

[MakeeLearn]

He may sail as Task Force "Flying Dutchman" until presented with a opportunity. You can [font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]slyly[/font] give him that opportunity.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I think you're being prudent, but I also think you worry a lot about what he's going to do when you don't need to any more. Was it Patton who said something like "Stop telling me what they're going to do. Tell me what you're going to do to kill the sumbitches"?

The game now is strat bombing.

It was Grant that said something like that when asked always about Lee this and Lee that.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure that KB was heading to Soerabaja to refuel. I considered sending Superforts to drop mines there. I elected not to because I wasn't sure whether aerial mining fell into the "no night bombing" rule. That expires in two days, I think (it might be one day). So I'll look for the right chance to do exactly what you're suggesting, Lowpe.

Paullus - you're right. From a military standpoint it's amazing how little fight John has put up for Indochina and Formosa (especially the latter). He must be solely hung up on the gaming aspect now - Victory Points.

With the Allies on the Chinese mainland in force, Indochina no longer has much strategic significance. John should have bailed out long ago and left a few garrisons. He might be playing for VP but those VP are gonna fall sooner or later. Formosa is a bit different but you can do a job on Japan with or without Formosa now. Hong Kong is nice because of the repair yard but since you hold Manila, it does not matter much either. Once Japan is severed from the DEI, the only thing that matters is big bases close to the HI-something that he just has to fight for.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My comments about John focusing on Victory Points were not a criticism of his strategy. This is a game and the VP system is there for a reason. It works. I like the VP system and the way it provides the Japanese player with a fun way to work the end game. If I were a JFB, I'd work VP hard, twisting reality into all kinds of knots while working the system.

I suspect that John is not by nature a VP guy. We know he's a Navy man by preference, and I suspect that simulating real war Japanese doctrine (albeit, beefed up by mods and bolstered by house rules) is psychologically important to him. Ordinarily, I think he'd have attacked by now, in keeping with the Bushido Code. I suspect that he hasn't done so partly in response to some excellent tutelage by smart Forumites urging him to work the VP system hard. John has responded, and the current score is a testament to how competitive VPs can make the game.

But I think John has backed so far away from his natural tendencies that it's affecting his enjoyment of the game. His VP-productive carrier raid in SoPac while Death Star was in the East China Sea was an example. And the current position of KB in the DEI, while the Allies have been invading coastal China and shutting down Formosa's airfields, is another good example. There are good VP reasons for doing what he's doing, but militarily he's contorted himself into a painful and dangerous position.

Things can still change. There's a chance of a major action in the DEI in the next day or two that could help him a lot. But if the Allied carriers and supply TFs do link up with Death Star in two or three days, what does John do then? Does he keep working the VP angle, with KB steaming around the DEI looking for something to hit while the Allies reduce Formosa to ruins? Will he be satisfied working the VP angle, or at some point does he give in to the historic Japanese ethic? I'm guessing the latter.

I dunno. I think VP considerations skew the end game and as I have said before there should be a final objective (Tokyo) before a certain time or all VP go out the window. This will give the Japanese player another option-that is an all out defense of the HI with no regard for his losses (hey, isn't that exactly what they were planning to do?) Now, it is kind of absurd. It is like he is in a chess game and trying to run around the board snapping up your pawns while your queen is sitting next to his king. Oh wait! I can't use that analogy in this AAR because I have already used the queen sacrifice analogy to explain your foray into Sumatra. You no longer have your queen...[&o]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

John is also playing the clock. That route for your convoys plus the need to pull back major carrier assets to escort them chews up additional time. If you get sloppy trying to save time - well, how many VP for a 100 Liberty ships and/or Victory ships? Add a bunch of LCU to that. John can only threaten that extended SLOC with a navy. If and when he gives battle any sort of victory will make things easier and quicker for you.

The clock. The clock. I hate the clock!

You're right.

With the purchase CR has in various places there is a lot less of a need to haul log from PH or CONUS. One reason to focus on HK, and to a lesser extent, Canton. Max Manila's supply production, and the rest of the PI. Repair if needed. The Allies don't need to worry about LI breakeven. The repair investment can be made up in 1945 easily with fetched supply if it's critical. Right now supply on point is far more important than ROI by August 1945 on industry repair.

And the best way to get the KB to behave is to weld it to the pier. Take the rest of his fuel out in a concerted bombing effort.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I think you're being prudent, but I also think you worry a lot about what he's going to do when you don't need to any more. Was it Patton who said something like "Stop telling me what they're going to do. Tell me what you're going to do to kill the sumbitches"?

The game now is strat bombing.

It was Grant that said something like that when asked always about Lee this and Lee that.

Bingo! I recently re-watched Ken Burns' "Civil War" and that line, without the sumbitches, was in there. Floating around in my head apparently.

(Still something Patton would have said, in the complete version. [:)])

[Flicker]

How is Rangoon as a port for supply? Do you have plans for a supply chain there? Does John still hold Port Blair?

[palioboy2]

I also just watched that documentary

That historians little antidotes have always been my favorite part.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A few weeks ago, I was pretty sure that KB was heading to Soerabaja to refuel. I considered sending Superforts to drop mines there. I elected not to because I wasn't sure whether aerial mining fell into the "no night bombing" rule. That expires in two days, I think (it might be one day). So I'll look for the right chance to do exactly what you're suggesting, Lowpe.

Paullus - you're right. From a military standpoint it's amazing how little fight John has put up for Indochina and Formosa (especially the latter). He must be solely hung up on the gaming aspect now - Victory Points.

With the Allies on the Chinese mainland in force, Indochina no longer has much strategic significance. John should have bailed out long ago and left a few garrisons. He might be playing for VP but those VP are gonna fall sooner or later. Formosa is a bit different but you can do a job on Japan with or without Formosa now. Hong Kong is nice because of the repair yard but since you hold Manila, it does not matter much either. Once Japan is severed from the DEI, the only thing that matters is big bases close to the HI-something that he just has to fight for.

Hong Kong has good VP though, right?

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: witpqs

John is also playing the clock. That route for your convoys plus the need to pull back major carrier assets to escort them chews up additional time. If you get sloppy trying to save time - well, how many VP for a 100 Liberty ships and/or Victory ships? Add a bunch of LCU to that. John can only threaten that extended SLOC with a navy. If and when he gives battle any sort of victory will make things easier and quicker for you.

The clock. The clock. I hate the clock!

You're right.

With the purchase CR has in various places there is a lot less of a need to haul log from PH or CONUS. One reason to focus on HK, and to a lesser extent, Canton. Max Manila's supply production, and the rest of the PI. Repair if needed. The Allies don't need to worry about LI breakeven. The repair investment can be made up in 1945 easily with fetched supply if it's critical. Right now supply on point is far more important than ROI by August 1945 on industry repair.

And the best way to get the KB to behave is to weld it to the pier. Take the rest of his fuel out in a concerted bombing effort.

Repairing LI at this point makes no sense at all because it eats 1000 supply per. It's not about the break even calculation per se at this point, getting back a few points per turn for a few thousand consumed makes no sense.