The Accidental War Obvert vs Lowpe

[njp72]

As you may recall Lowpe, i do have some recent experience fighting the Soviets[:D] (3 games thus far)

It is great fun and adds a bit of novelty.

From the Japanese perspective I believe it needs to be a war of maneuver where you can outflank and encircle key Soviet positions. I haven't traditionally tried to assault the larger fortified cities due to the weakness of IJA firepower and Soviet artillery. If you get tied down/ fixed to key positions in sieges, the Soviets will swarm you.

You can cut them up pretty well thanks to their poor starting positions and the inferiority/ low replacements of their Armour/ air until mid 44. Cut the rail lines immediately and just don't let them concentrate.

My dribble for what it is worth!

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I have to say I am leaning towards fight the Soviets...[8|]

Obvert is fine either way and OTH we would endeavor to recreate the identical turn with just the once exception on Japan's side...but Obvert probably couldn't do nearly as well recreating his turn should we decide instead to redo the turn.

So I will take a week and look at it...and see if Japan wants to tackle the Bear. I am definitely leaning towards this as it would make for a very different game. Perhaps, even surprising.

Obvert is on vacation so no time lost in making the decision.

If you had been preparing from 7 Dec 1941 for Soviet activation the plan I would recommend would be different to the following.

1. In early 1942 the Soviets are not particularly strong. Their greatest weakness is their airforce. Their pilot replacement rates are low, most of their airframes are obsolete. They are yet to receive sturmoviks and very significantly (IIRC in this scenario) their sturmovik production is on map and the factories located in "vulnerable" territory.

2. With activation the Soviet navy becomes available. Whilst lacking much in the way of heavy units it has a lot of subs and destroyers which can wreck havoc on your SLOC and go a long way towards reducing the effectiveness of your "magical highway".

3. Soviet supply flowing to Chinese bases is not your real concern; the real concern should be Soviet supply flowing to Chinese LCUs located in the countryside.

4. Soviet raw materials are meagre in comparison to what is available in the SRA but they are close to the Home Islands and not particularly well defended. They can therefore be captured and transported back to Japan relatively easily.

I recommend that you base your conduct on 3 principles:

(A) interdict Soviet supply flow to China

(B) safeguard your SLOC

(C) weaken the bear in a cost effective manner else you won't capture the SRA

Bearing in mind these principles, I would not attempt to destroy the Soviet land forces in and near Vladivostok. Instead I would:

(a) drive hard across the Gobi desert to capture the dot base Wuteh (IIRC it has light industry) Dalan Dzadagad and Ulan Bator. Enemy forces are weak here and thus you do not need a sizeable force. Units from China can be used here. This operation will help in creating a desert between Soviet supply sources and Chinese LCUs.

(b) as part of the desert operation, the Soviet bases Obote, Yugodzyr, Tamsag, Ondorhaan, Choybalsan and Borzya also need to be captured. This area is more strongly defended than (a) and therefore you will need to use Manchukuo units as your nearby China units are needed to drive hard to Wasu and Urumchi.

(c) to seal off supply arriving from Alma-Ata capture Wasu and park a small LCU between it and the Alma-Ata "worm hole" exit.

(d) if the sturmovik factories are located at Komsomolsk in this scenario, aim for this base which should also have some useful other industry present. There are two approaches to Komsomolsk; overland via Khabarovsk/Birobidzhan or seaborne (with a short overland move subsequently) via Sovetskaya Gavan/Nikolaevsk. Going overland means fighting through strong Soviet land forces and consequently would consume much of your Manchukuo forces (leaving little to contain the Vladivostok area forces) and a lot of supply. It is therefore not recommended. The seaborne route has one serious disadvantage viz the Soviet CD guns at either location but two significant advantages viz relatively weak Soviet garrisons and it helps to neutralise the Soviet navy and protect your SLOC. Note that with Nikolaevsk under Japanese control you can send merchantmen up river to Komsomolsk.

(e) very high priority is to capture the Soviet half of Sakhalin Island. This is where the useful Soviet raw materials are found. It also safeguards your SLOC. A naval landing directly at Okha has to be seriously considered, thereby bypassing the Soviet frontier "forts".

(f) Petrovpavlovsk and the two dot islands Bering Island and Medny Island should be captured ASAP. There are some raw material here but more significantly it strengthens your northern defences against an Allied drive against the Kuriles/Hokkaido. These locations are weakly defended. Consideration to capturing Magadan should also be given

(g) whilst doing all of the above you need to speed up the conquest of northern China in particular. In this game your Chinese units should not be viewed as providing a strategic reserve for further conquests in the SRA (and beyond) but as your reserve against the Soviets. A quick conquest of China might release sufficient forces to take on the Vladivostok area forces or provide the force to move on to the significant industrial centres of Ulan Ude, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk.

(h) abandon any thought of phase 2 operations against India, Australia, New Zealand, Samoa et al. You will be doing very well if you can hold simultaneously the historical Japanese conquests and the Soviets under control.

Alfred

[PaxMondo]

I like Alfred's assessment (not surprising, he has excellent analytic skills that I admire greatly).

+1 air factories. They convert to VEH factories upon capture, very useful for IJ.

+1 abandon other conquest ideas. If you can take asia proper (CHI/SOV), you have made '45 a MUCH easier task. In terms of AV, you have removed more than 50% of the allied AV on the board ... HUGE. CHI can be taken, SOV cannot, although you can barricade them from the board. Whether you can prevent their return entirely has never been tested in an AAR, but you can surely make it happen MUCH later if they ever do.

Cannot wait to watch this.

[Lowpe]

Having never fought the Soviets before this is all such a great help. Many thanks everyone.[&o]

[Lowpe]

My first guess is that Obvert would use a lot of the Russian bombers at night against my industry....for a variety of reasons: short fighter ranges; plane replacements and pilot pools etc.

He can reach out and touch a lot of bases with his patrols...but I believe you cannot night bomb (other than naval strikes) with them.

[paullus99]

The Soviet Air Force is, for the most part, mere cannon fodder until late in the war - given what you've seen already, if Obvert gets to use it, expect that he'll expend everything he has - because he's going to lose all those planes anyway - might as well lose them trying to hit you & not dying over his airbases (or on the ground).

[SqzMyLemon]

Should be interesting should you decide to go ahead with Soviet activation, and it sounds like you are definitely leaning that way.

Have fun, it will be a blast for all of us to follow. Erik's going to be a busy boy in both his games now.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: njp72

As you may recall Lowpe, i do have some recent experience fighting the Soviets[:D] (3 games thus far)

It is great fun and adds a bit of novelty.

From the Japanese perspective I believe it needs to be a war of maneuver where you can outflank and encircle key Soviet positions. I haven't traditionally tried to assault the larger fortified cities due to the weakness of IJA firepower and Soviet artillery. If you get tied down/ fixed to key positions in sieges, the Soviets will swarm you.

You can cut them up pretty well thanks to their poor starting positions and the inferiority/ low replacements of their Armour/ air until mid 44. Cut the rail lines immediately and just don't let them concentrate.

My dribble for what it is worth!

Your dribble is worth a lot...without the surprise attack it looks daunting, plus he will have 8 divisions till July of 42.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

The Soviet Air Force is, for the most part, mere cannon fodder until late in the war - given what you've seen already, if Obvert gets to use it, expect that he'll expend everything he has - because he's going to lose all those planes anyway - might as well lose them trying to hit you & not dying over his airbases (or on the ground).

Unfortunately the Japanese air force is in no way prepared for this...I am really going to have to play with resizing fighter groups I fear and making a lot more Zeroes than originally planned.

You are quite correct, Obvert will hit very hard I fear.[;)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Should be interesting should you decide to go ahead with Soviet activation, and it sounds like you are definitely leaning that way.

Have fun, it will be a blast for all of us to follow. Erik's going to be a busy boy in both his games now.

Yeah, you really need to start grinding him down....get his attention so he makes numerous mistakes in both our games.[;)]

[Cap Mandrake]

Get something..at least a regiment to Shikuka ASAP. There is a half-strength Rifle Div at Alexandrovsk! [:)]

Valdivostok has same NASTY CD guns up to 330mm and 250m mines.

Sovietskaya Gayan (on the Kamchatka coast) has a weak garrison and a level 4 AF. You might be able to threaten the Trans-Siberian railway from there or at least draw forces away from the border and make it easier to cut if from the West.

Petropavlosk has an understrength regiment, a shedload of crappy planes no mines and light industry, plus buildable oil production. 20 x 130 mm CD guns.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Get something..at least a regiment to Shikuka ASAP. There is a half-strength Rifle Div at Alexandrovsk! [:)]

Somebody starts up there...well, I put them on trains two days ago when I feared an invasion. Plus I have been flying in an engineering unit and a base force which I didn't stop so they should be able to hold.

Have you not been reading this AAR...I have no fear of CD guns under the proper circumstances.

Keep feeding me the info...we are planning desperately for the coming conflict.[&o]

[Lowpe]

I think primarily for the Soviets it will be a question of protecting and getting into position...cutting supply lines and perhaps bombing some industry at night.

[SierraJuliet]

Going back to post 1043. Point 2. Do nothing… behave as if Soviets aren’t activated. You asked will anything crazy happen if you go that route. Todd and I did it both times in our games. Stalin gets very demanding at times and it can result in demands and borders clashes. It certainly gives plenty of scope for your ambassadors to come to grips with each other behind the scenes. We even had the odd aerial skirmish at times which may or may not have triggered a full-on clash. Todd and I adopted the approach that with the Soviets activated each side was free to attack at any time if they decided that is what they wanted to. Hence the mid war attack in our current game.

I take Alfred’s point about Soviet activation assisting the Chinese but I didn’t note any change in their ability to resist (as in supply getting through to them to enhance their staying power) after Soviet activation.

I second PaxMondo on Alfred’s assessment. Very to the point and paints a big picture of just what taking on the Soviet entails.

Yes, do keep a look out for the torpedo variant of the DB-3M. It has the range to sneak in and catch shipping in the Home Islands. It will certainly make you sit up and pay attention to what you are doing in your own back yard.

Don’t underrate the other fighters apart from the MiG. They are very agile and can give as good as they get at times. Very galling when they get behind your rice planes and knock them out of the sky.

I know how you must be feeling about the state of your air fleet now. I toyed with an early invasion but one of my fears was taking on the Soviet air with early model Zeros and Oscars. I started out late but feel much more comfortable taking them one with the A6M5 version allied with Tojo. The Tony is also doing a sterling job as a sweeper in Russia. I think you will have to be judicious about where and with what you use to sweep.

Good luck and enjoy what should be a long campaign.

[Encircled]

Well, I'm trying not to get too excited by the prospect of this!

Downside, probably wouldn't be a long game

Upside, carnage, total carnage everywhere and the dazzling (if unlikely prospect) of a Japan with a secure Asian continent behind it.

Whatever you two decide to to, it will be unmissable from an AAR watchers point of view! [&o]

[JeffroK]

I dont see how there is any question as to whether play on or take a "mulligan"
You made a mistake, should be more careful, or does Obvert get a "mulligan" first time his CV react and he loses all of them.

This opens up a game which is rarely played, and might make JFB more careful, or show up the Soviets as a paper tiger. It would be great to see.

One warning about all of these "super plans", dont forget that the Soviets get a chance to react and have a lot of divisions and brigades to cover their bases.

Go with it, have fun, see what comes out the other end.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I dont see how there is any question as to whether play on or take a "mulligan"

Mainly because of what CR posted a page back:

If Eric is enjoying the game and looking for a hard-fought match that will unfold over years, he might wish to avoid Soviet activation. Activation offers the prospect of novelty but also promises to cut the game short. You may both enjoy avoiding that kind of deviation from the norm.


And please note, CR was warning me that my willingness to play against the Soviets might be a mistake with respect to Obvert's game enjoyment.

For games to last to the end, and be enjoyable, you need a little empathy.[:)]

[Drakanel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I dont see how there is any question as to whether play on or take a "mulligan"
You made a mistake, should be more careful, or does Obvert get a "mulligan" first time his CV react and he loses all of them.

I disagree, this is not "a mulligan". This is the game asininely activating the soviets for a wrong supply drop, which makes no sense at all. It's such a trivial thing,I could maybe understand it if it was troops. But here, for all we know, it's crates of food dropped on the coast of a neutral nation.

"Hey, a japanese group of ships landed some crates of food on our coast". "What? THEY WILL BE ANNEXED!!!!!" Nations do not go to war over crates of food or something similar. They may demand compensation orexplanations, but not declare war.

Please do not compare this to a CV battle between nations already at war. They are two completely different things.


That said, if Lowpe wants to go for it, he can. I just fear it's going to shorten the game a lot [:D]

[Lowpe]

So Obvert and I bounced back a few messages, and it seems like neither Stalin or the Emperor are willing to back down.

Therefore, it surely seems like war.

[AcePylut]

So basically…

Tojo: Hey you Commie Reds, in honor of our mutuar peace in these wartimes, here a shipment of beans and buttwipe for you from bottom of Cherry Brossom Hearts”.

Ivan Jackov: “How dare you suggest Glorious Mother Russia needs toilet paper from you capitalist warmongering imperialists! This is WAR.”

Meanwhile - along the front lines on the outskirts of Mongolia - a "soon to be resident of the Gulag" quips "Dang, I'm sick of this tree-bark arse-wipe. It would be nice to have something smooth."

As the same time - some Imperial Navy Swabbie thinks "Since when did our boys adopt red star uniforms and this doesn't really look like Korea."