The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

With respect to your sub operations....

Have you ever coordinated sub commerce raids with the weather and moonlight? Withdrawing them during periods of good weather and sending them in during periods of low moonlight and bad weather?

Ive wondered about this and Ive thought would that not cut both ways? More difficult for sub to be spotted yet also more difficult to spot and hit ships?

[paullus99]

I believe the fact that Allied subs get radar makes up for that.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I believe the fact that Allied subs get radar makes up for that.

Bingo. Lousy Allied sub radar gives a 4/4 DL most times.

[Canoerebel]

9/1/44

Peep Show II, D-Day, Invasion of Taichu, Formosa: I have time only for a brief post (more later today), but D-Day Formosa unfolded seamlessly today.

Unless John can get reinforcements to Taichu by tomorrow (possible if he was thinking two days ahead; not possible if he just started reacting today), the base should fall. In that event, all Allied troops will land at Taichu and then spread out, south for Kagi and Takao and north for Taihoku.

If IJA reinforcements due make it in time to spoil the deliberate attack tomorrow, I'll land my main army at Taihoku the day after.

There are a lot of interesting developments today, but I think we're seeing three major Japanese mistakes unfolding at the same time.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

With respect to your sub operations....

Have you ever coordinated sub commerce raids with the weather and moonlight? Withdrawing them during periods of good weather and sending them in during periods of low moonlight and bad weather?

Ive wondered about this and Ive thought would that not cut both ways? More difficult for sub to be spotted yet also more difficult to spot and hit ships?

In game terms maybe but not in real life terms. Unlike their German counterparts, Allied sub commanders liked attacking on the surface at night. The darker the better. Rain was icing on the cakes. Japanese ships very rarely had working radar and their lousy sonar was useless vs subs on the surface. Radar, radar, radar baby...[;)]

[Canoerebel]

9/1/44

Peep Show II - Additional information on the map. Things went remarkably well today.

SEAC: John is counterinvading Vinh. Two divisions with no support (HQ, arty, whatever). He has enough to punch through, take the base, and roll around the interior, making noise and creating some consternation. Ultimately, this means nothing.

Enemy Miscues: I think John is currently involved in three or four unfolding mistakes:

1. Formosa Defense: He doesn't seem to have Taichu defended and doesn't seem to have troops in strat mode ready to steam to the beachhead. If that's really the case, this campaign was just decided on the opening day. I'll know tomorrow if that outlook is too optimistic.

2. KB Location: I understand why KB is in the DEI from a game/VP perspective. Some players think it's a good location from a military perspective too. It's that I disagree with. John would've complicated things 500% if he had KB lurking and if his Formosa defenses were properly configured. From a military standpoint this is just disastrous play.

3. China: He has a big army barreling for the China coast. When they meet Allied bombers in a week or so, he'll probably throw up his hands in frustration, exclaiming over the power of Allied bombers. But he's walking right into them. This campaign was decided when the Allies took these bases. He should be establishing a new MRL in good terrain, not marching forth boldly into open terrain that's gonna be close to Allied airfields. Disaster.

4. Indochina: He'll have fun with the Vinh invasion for a few weeks, but ultimately he's exposing two more division to Allied air. I was counting on facing a tough 10th Div. at or near Singers. Instead, 10th and 116th just got roughed up landing unprepped. Now they're gonna roam the countryside for a week or ten days. The fun'll stop as soon as I can move more of my air forces to the theater. That may not be long.

[Canoerebel]

9/1/44

DEI: Here's where most of KB is lurking. John probably has a local mission in mind, but there's the chance he'll move his carriers back to Japan now.

[Canoerebel]

9/1/44

Australia: The Allies recapture Darwin after a long, quiet little campaign. John probably won't give up here, though.

[BBfanboy]

Re: bringing the Amphib Force HQ to the DS, it can still do good work next turn if you put it in the Taichu hex - assuming you are still landing troops amphibiously next turn before your shock attack. I assume DS is not in the Taichu hex because of the 50% reduction in carrier ops that would entail.

[Lowpe]

Everything west of Wenchow is already destroyed...dead men walking.

The KB has other purposes than VP generation which it doesn't seem like it is accomplishing anyhow. But I feel if the KB were lurking in the Yellow Sea you would have slowed your advance down some and Japan in a much more beneficial position. You have been incredibly lucky in that you have had fairly perfect intel on the KB for what is seemingly months. I couldn't play this way. I would lose sleep.

Vinh is hard to understand. Two divisions eh?

Moving troops in open hexes can be justified. Even beneficial for Japan under the right circumstances.

[DRF99]

John has allowed CR to keep that little island just south of Makassar ever since it was taken. I think it has a patrol squadron and has been keeping a close eye on the various KB task forces as they've paraded back and fourth the past few months. The common theme over the last few months of game time has been that the location of the KB is known at all times, leaving CR to push forward where they aren't.

He should have taken it out a while ago but has chosen not to or overlooked it.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: DRF99

John has allowed CR to keep that little island just south of Makassar ever since it was taken. I think it has a patrol squadron and has been keeping a close eye on the various KB task forces as they've paraded back and fourth the past few months. The common theme over the last few months of game time has been that the location of the KB is known at all times, leaving CR to push forward where they aren't.

He should have taken it out a while ago but has chosen not to or overlooked it.

I constantly marvel at how good CR's visibility is of the KB. It's like he has Keyholes. When John reads this AAR some day I hope he learns from these screen shots. He's had his skivvies showing for a long time.

[Encircled]

Every Japanese player needs to put the time and effort into making sure all the little islands and atolls behind the perimeter are held by him of her.

All it takes is those three naval guard fragments that start the game and a few AKLs and its done.

[Canoerebel]

John's body language indicates that he's pretty worked up about the state of the game at the moment. It's probably a mixture of excitement about his Vietnam counter invasion and China offensive and concern about the Allied invasion of Formosa. The body language and his email comments last night lead me to believe he may try something drastic at Formosa.

He just sent an email indicating he's running the turn now. I'll be watching for his early posts (like early election returns) in an hour or so. Is it "Banzai!" or is it "September 1944"? Will he post fast and furious or desultory?

This next turn is critical: if Taichu falls, he's going to lose Formosa fast, allowing me to turn my attention to China, Indochina and Japan far sooner than expected. If reinforcements arrive so that he holds Taichu, this could turn into a protracted campaign for a month or more, considerably delaying the opportunity to strike his vulnerable assets elsewhere.

I think Taichu falls.

[Lokasenna]

The biggest thing I don't understand about the KB being all the way down there is that... how's he going to get them out? Does he expect to be able to just bust through either the Mindanao/Celebes channel or the Formosa/Luzon channel?

[Canoerebel]

The Celebes Sea channel is still a viable option for him. KB is too strong for my airfields (Morotai/Talaud) to pose a threat. And I don't have enough combat ships to deter or threaten his carriers. So he can egress safely if he wants to.

[paullus99]

I would guess that eventually, he'll take them the long way around & get them back to Japan before you're in a position to effectively intervene.

Of course, in the meantime, this grace period will allow you to finish off Formosa, deal with his Chinese Offensive & probably also fully secure your LOC.

[uncivil_servant]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think the sitzkreig you have along your Chinese line is allowing him to flood SE China with units to head off yours. After the war of attrition in Sumatra, your land units took a beating. Even if he doesn't retake all of what you took with his counter attack, he can isolate and destroy your land units which are the greatest threat to him. Canton went from Dark red to light red. Several areas along his line went slightly lighter shades of red as he's flooding the SE China coast with his spare units. If you start pressing his line,yes you'll use supply but you'll also "use" Chinese units which you have scores of replacements of. You might even find a weak spot that you can exploit. Just sitting there allows him to send all his reinforcements to your allied landings.

[Canoerebel]

Let Chinese units flood the coastal areas of China. The more the merrier. They aren't the hunters, they're the hunted. I'm going to lay low and let them come for another week or two. When they arrive at a coastal city like Swatow, Amoy or Foochow, I'll turn loose my 4EB.

I can't believe John's going to send his units unprotected in open terrain, but he's probably going to.

[paullus99]

But, he'll be sending his infantry against "late war" allied formations. These aren't the same guys he fought in Sumatra & he also doesn't have air or sear superiority either.

John will also be fighting in the open, which, at this point in the war puts his units into a meat grinder. Not only will he lose those units, but it allows CR to move his Chinese front forward as well.

This is about to be a very painful lesson for John, in just how deadly late war allied airpower is.