Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

Yes, Michael, that's pretty much what I believe he'll try. A Commonwealth offensive in Burma plus a US attack in SOPAC.

FYI, we have successfully re-sized the KB air groups to emphasize more Zeros. Soryu and Hiryu are almost done with CV upgrades, Shokaku and Zuikaku are next.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Obviously very disappointing, especially as these are the first carriers of any kind I've lost in 3 PBEMs.

The first one is always the toughest. Can't say it gets any easier though. [:(]

[ny59giants]

My re-size was to enable me getting two torpedo strikes out of each CV if I don't have any losses. Them like you focus on the fighter size.

I had a lot of very small size FP taken off my BBs and CAs that did not use the CS to re-size. Just ran them through an AV to get them to size 9.

[Cribtop]

July 21, 1942

A good day in China!

Subs

We have shifted the Karachi wolf pack to the tip of the subcontinent. We also have another wolf pack near Colombo. This is because of several recent "heavy volume" intercepts from Colombo.

4th Fleet, SE Fleet, 14th Army

No change.

16th Army

Madjene occupied.

It appears that the enemy armor in NW Oz is not advancing after all. There is also no sign of the B-17s.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

We will soon upgrade the Rangoon Nells to G3M3 and then swap them with Bettys currently at Port Blair.

Airfield buildapalooza: Prome to 4, Toungoo to 2, Calcutta to 7.

China

So far, the enemy has responded to Operation Red Dragon with a series of local counter attacks by existing stacks near Kukong and Changsha. We believed we had sufficient force defending the sides of the developing kessel, CF apparently disagreed. Today is judgment day, and our forces are not found wanting.

First, we DA the former Kweilin garrison at 76, 53, achieving a 2:1 and retreating 6 LCUs a second time, which should leave them shells. Casualties are 7352(526) vs 982(1). Our armor pursues, leaving the new enemy occupied hex "unowned." This means our armor can move to cut the enemy off from Hengyang.

CF tries two Allied DAs. The first, at 77, 56 (near Wuchow), is a 1:2 affair with casualties 2385(20) vs 871(2). We have lots of supply nearby to recover and will use the IJAAF wing at Canton to pound the enemy here.

Next, a much bigger DA at Changsha goes in at 1:2, destroying one enemy LCU and resulting in casualties of 10249(287) vs 4067(13).

Thus, with his only reserves still at Chungking, CF finds himself stuck at the bottom of the bag with 17th Army's crack troops only three hexes of good road away from closing the top of the sack on up to 45 LCUs.

His situation here, IMHO, is dire. He has lost 1,575 Chinese squads in a week, while our main maneuver force is about to slam the back door to Changsha. Meanwhile, two more divisions will reinforce the IJA in the region over the next few days. He can still abandon Changsha, but that is fine with us as the loss of the Changsha cluster should cripple supply on a strategic scale for the Chinese army.

[Cribtop]

Michael,

On your good advice, I've taken the "2" FP groups off BBs and CAs, re-sizing to 20 using a CS. The "1" groups upgrade to Jakes and re-size to fit the ship. This gives more nav search groups (20 Jakes cover a good bit of arc) and improved search for the IJN.

Mike,

I hear you. [:(] Still, we learn the lesson and move on. Not sure what else to do with slow CVEs, but in time it seems all raiders are brought to justice.

[Cribtop]

July 22, 1942

Subs

An active day. An ASW TF DCs Porpoise near Groot Natoena and gets a fuel tank hit. O 20 misses a DD near Singers and then takes a penetrating hit from return fire. DD Fortune hunts but can't locate I-20 near Bombay.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

More engineers unload at Gasmata. Bases are building fast in this AO now. Luganville makes level 5 airfield, so CF has his engineers hard at work, too. Cribtop Intel suspects we could be in for a show here whenever CF is ready to attack.

14th Army, 16th Army

No change.

25th Army

We have finally gotten the third brigade of 18th Division loaded and shipped to Batavia. From there 18th and 56th Divisions will sail to Luzon.

15th Army

No change.

China

There are no further Chinese attacks this turn. Our bombers hit Changsha airfield hard, aiming to kill supply. We also bomb the stack near Wuchow.

One armor unit slips between the former Kweilin garrison and Hengyang. Our lead element is thus only two hexes west (map) of Hengyang now.

5th Fleet

After a surprisingly long battle against the ocean, DD Murasame slips under the waves today, adding to the CVE Raider butcher's bill. The brave crew worked the pumps until getting the "decks awash, abandon ship" message. The Captain survived and we assume the Emperor's portrait was packed into the lifeboats.

[Cribtop]

Open Questions

A few open questions to the readership:

1) nygiants59 - you recently indicated that the CVEs would be useful in future operations. Granted I'd love not to have lost them, but didn't make them part of MKB due to low speed. In your opinion, how are they useful?

2) To all - What, if anything, are the lessons of the failure of Operation Kraken (the CVE Raiders)? What have I missed? Should raiding be left to subs? To subs or LCTFs?

3) To all - Is my optimism in China warranted or am I off base? It seems to me that Changsha, Kukong and eventually Nanning fall, opening the Singers to Port Arthur land route; and that the KMT starves. This allows me to shift divisions to the Pacific and DEI. What do you think?

[vicberg]

Vietnam to Fusan LOC is IMO the MOST import japanese strategic objective of the game, often overlooked because it's not as exciting as India/OZ/SoPac/PH.  The savings in fuel alone is massive.  Pull from Fusan while increasing the port (and the port next to it, forget the name) and you can pull fuel/oil/resources a 3 hex distance instead of 60+ hexes from Cam -> Formosa -> HI.  There are plenty of players who have conquered China or at least opened the LOC.  Balikpan -> Soerabaja (8 hexes? maybe 9).  Merak -> Osthaven (2 hexes).  Palembang -> Singers (6 hexes).  Fusan -> HI (3 hexes).  Easy (as can be expected) to escort, protect from subs and save fuel. 
 
IMO, India/OZ/SoPac/PH are diversions.  They keep the enemy further away, but as Greyjoy just showed us, doesn't prevent an allied attack elsewhere. 

[vicberg]

Also, the japanese attempted this very same thing.  They attacked Changsha in 1944 with 17 divisions and eventually won.  Unfortunately for the japanese, it was too late. 

[Cribtop]

Operation ICHI-GO, right? Thanks for the input vicberg!

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

3) To all - Is my optimism in China warranted or am I off base? It seems to me that Changsha, Kukong and eventually Nanning fall, opening the Singers to Port Arthur land route; and that the KMT starves. This allows me to shift divisions to the Pacific and DEI. What do you think?

Absolutely agree. If you can take china out of the war, it is a big deal. It should allow you to seal Burma longer ... keeping the DEI flow going that much longer.

[ny59giants]

While CVEs are not the fastest carriers you have now and will have in the future, they can be part of Mini-KB which you may need to protect transports and use as a supplement to KB and hopefully KB2 which will be formed after the 6 Unryu Class CVs come out in late '43. They could help in ways that do not rely upon speed as an asset.

Your raid was a risk and you lost. Besides not having the number of Kates needed to inflict more than minor damage to any TF they came across, they are not fast enough to get away, IMO. I would say that the cost analysis would not have had me sending them out just for a raid. Not with the American CVs able to run you down. Use them as bait to get the Americans CVs out with KB lurking, would be something I would have tried.

I do better as an Allied player as I'm more methodical. Thus, the need to play a game or two as Japan to get out of that comfort zone. [;)] At this point in the game, I would have to go back and tell myself to play somewhat more aggressively to try to get some more breathing space. Attack Pearl again....hell no!! But, I would try to send most of my CVs of all size and speed to operate in the eastern part of the map.

Use your Glen equipped subs to be your recon there Gen Stuart. Don't go off looking at Washington DC and leave Gen Lee without intel. If anything, some AMC out to shake the bushes.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

3) To all - Is my optimism in China warranted or am I off base? It seems to me that Changsha, Kukong and eventually Nanning fall, opening the Singers to Port Arthur land route; and that the KMT starves. This allows me to shift divisions to the Pacific and DEI. What do you think?

I think you should be optimistic, but keep the pressure on. Do not let the Chinese hunker down in the rough terrain in any kind of numbers. Attack, attack...attack! Bomb, bomb...bomb. Pin your ears back and just don't relent until you exhaust your advance or reach your predetermined defensive line. Time is your enemy in China, do not let them consolidate any kind of defensive line, maneuver around them, keep the battle fluid.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: vicberg

Vietnam to Fusan LOC is IMO the MOST import japanese strategic objective of the game, often overlooked because it's not as exciting as India/OZ/SoPac/PH.  The savings in fuel alone is massive.  Pull from Fusan while increasing the port (and the port next to it, forget the name) and you can pull fuel/oil/resources a 3 hex distance instead of 60+ hexes from Cam -> Formosa -> HI.  There are plenty of players who have conquered China or at least opened the LOC.  Balikpan -> Soerabaja (8 hexes? maybe 9).  Merak -> Osthaven (2 hexes).  Palembang -> Singers (6 hexes).  Fusan -> HI (3 hexes).  Easy (as can be expected) to escort, protect from subs and save fuel. 

IMO, India/OZ/SoPac/PH are diversions.  They keep the enemy further away, but as Greyjoy just showed us, doesn't prevent an allied attack elsewhere. 

I agree with this but have one suggestion. I would pull only oil and resources, not fuel. The fuel suffers from loss during this. Not sure how much but I'd make some changes in the SRA. In the SRA, shut off all refineries except for producing fuel for fleet operations and fueling the HI there. Everything else remains oil so it can be shipped to Singapore then trucked to Fusan without loss. The Home Islands have plenty of refinery capability to handle the oil. If you really want to save the maximum amount of fuel, don't let it move by land.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli


I agree with this but have one suggestion. I would pull only oil and resources, not fuel. The fuel suffers from loss during this. Not sure how much but I'd make some changes in the SRA. In the SRA, shut off all refineries except for producing fuel for fleet operations and fueling the HI there. Everything else remains oil so it can be shipped to Singapore then trucked to Fusan without loss. The Home Islands have plenty of refinery capability to handle the oil. If you really want to save the maximum amount of fuel, don't let it move by land.

Mike,

Great observation ... I had completely overlooked the excess refining capacity in the HI. Making changes to my plans now ...

[&o][&o][&o]

[Crackaces]

Your raid was a risk and you lost. Besides not having the number of Kates needed to inflict more than minor damage to any TF they came across, they are not fast enough to get away, IMO. I would say that the cost analysis would not have had me sending them out just for a raid. Not with the American CVs able to run you down. Use them as bait to get the Americans CVs out with KB lurking, would be something I would have tried.

I would agree with that 100%. I have discussed privately with Cribtop my poker background, but you see this on TV .. going all in when the other player is likely to fold if beat and only call if he has you beat. So a small pot is won with maximum risk. In this situation, to invest a lot to sink a few ships, but if found .. disaster ...

Raids with the CVL/CVE forces are very likely to be found. The SIGINT gives "Heavy radio transmission" where the Allied player simply pivots PA platforms to check out the areas where these transmission are coming from .. and as NY59Giants states once found .. easily smashed ..

BTW) I could see such raids agaisnt a player that has not established regular serach arcs and does not pivot them .. but those SIGINT messages remind the Allied player to go ahead and adjust arcs or move platforms ..

That exact situation occured in my game. I tracked this mini-KB for four fulll turns and caught the Mini-KB whilst undetected launching against Baker Island ... for one xAK and a few planes 1 CVL lost 2 out for 3 months for 10 USNAAF planes lost ..

Just my .02 ..

[John 3rd]

Just caught up on the AAR Cribtop. A good and solid read.

Think your China position is quite promising.

CVEs are tough. Thoughts:
1. I like to use them as Raiders as well and, generally, suffer the same results. One possible way to improve their survivability is to link them with the slower CV conversions--Junyo/Hiyo--for greater firepower. Those two CV are somewhat slow and I don't like to keep them with the carriers so it simply falls to link them up with the even slower CVEs.

2. Another way to use and abuse them is to place only Zeros on them and use them to set-up CAP traps. Use them to draw in the Allied airpower and then sweep in with fully operational CV Air Groups.

My .02...

[Cribtop]

Thanks for all the responses, folks. A few thoughts before moving on...

1) I concur with the idea that in the end, CVE (or CV/CVL) raiding of convoy lanes ends up a high risk/low yield proposition. The only big upside would be catching a troop convoy or a lone CVE or CVL transiting from CONUS to the front. Odds are you'll get a few supply convoys and then get smacked. CVEs are too slow and by definition you have to go into Indian Country to reach the convoy routes.

2) This does not apply to raids against specific, high value targets. For example, the raids in jrcar's AAR by KB smashed lots of key enemy shipping, including tankers and AP/AK assault ships. In my own game, the losses inflicted at Darwin, Soerabaja, and, to an unluckily lesser degree, Colombo, were worth the lower amount of risk to KB.

3) I used FP equipped AMCs as pickets, but kept them too close to the CVE TF to provide enough warning. They were at four hexes, should've been farther out except when making the run between Midway and the Aleutians. I should have posted Glen boats near Pearl and even CONUS to watch for emerging targets and threats as well. Recall the elaborate screens created IRL at Midway to watch Pearl. They were put in place too late to catch the USN's departure due to SIGINT intercepts revealing the IJN plan, but the concept was sound.

4) IMHO upping the ante on raids by including the slow CVs probably doesn't change the equation much in the IJN's favor. If Junyo and Hiyo had been present, we maybe sink, but probably only damage, 1 USN CV and they die too. In a similar situation in other AARs (jrcar and PzB, IIRC) these two CVs ended up sunk too.

Conclusion: deep convoy raiding should be left to subs and, rarely, LCTFs. Raids against specific, fixed targets are a different type of Op and can be done in the right circumstances.

[Cribtop]

July 23, 1942

Subs

Sealion duds on an xAK near Formosa. Plunger hits an xAK near Tokyo. The ship will probably make it.

4th Fleet

As we shift more towards a defensive posture, a small Emily group pulls back from our secret AV base at Nukufetau to TB to ensure coverage of the gap near Ocean Island. We still have a Mavis group at Nukufetau.

SE Fleet

Gasmata makes level 2 airfield, Hollandia level 3. For the enemy, Noumea hits level 5.

14th Army

The last regiment committed to the central PI loads up as garrison issues are finally resolved. They will go to either Sabang or Port Blair.

16th Army

Turns out the enemy armor is indeed advancing on Daly as they move a hex today. It took them four days, a sign our bombing is slowing them up. We will continue bombing, shift one additional brigade of 21st Division forward just in case, use our flanking armor unit to try to cut in behind the enemy, and rely on the strong defenses at Daly.

Waingapoe makes level 1 airfield, Bandoeng level 4.

25th Army

Loading for Luzon while hordes of raw materials (so far) placidly move to Japan.

15th Army

Karachi makes level 7 port.

China

We will catch up to the former Kweilin garrison again tomorrow. Bombing continues everywhere.

Oddly, recon reveals that Nanning apparently has been abandoned by the KMT. We will fly again tomorrow to confirm. We have troops in Liuchow, so we would have seen the enemy if they were marching there (adjacent units). That leaves an invasion of Vietnam, a march south against the coast, or withdrawal into the interior as the possibilities. Cribtop Intel rates withdrawal as the most likely course of enemy action.

[ny59giants]

RF Guns - You have some of these units in China to do what?!? They are equipped with AT guns to fight what Chinese armor?? [&:] If you haven't moved them yet, they should go to Burma or Australia.