Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

4/2/44

Battle of Timor Sea: With the end of the day it's apparent that Dave withdrew from the field of battle, as did the Allies.

Early in the war, there was a similar fight in the Gilberts, though on a smaller scale. It felt like this one, outcome and all. In that case, Dave retired...and then really retired. He didn't come back to contest the region. He instead withdrew a considerable distance to the safety of a new MLR.

He may or may not follow a similar pattern here. He may feel that Timor is lost to him, or him may return and fight with a vengeance.

The Allies will concentrate at Darwin, replenishing everything capable of fighting. Troops are prepping for Dili - 3rd Marine Div. is already at 38%, and will go at 50%, since the base is lightly held.

As for damaged Allied capital ships, they won't move until I know what Dave is doing with his carriers. It suits me if he floods the Arafura Sea, because then Allied ASW can get at them. But he may not do that - prior conduct shows that once he suffers heavy sub attrition he doesn't like to operate forward in unfriendly waters heavily patrolled.

[Canoerebel]

4/2/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Looks like an enemy carrier went under, today.

[RangerJoe]

I think that he has to fight for Timor to keep the DEI as long as is possible. Although he might send his carrier air to land bases if his carriers are damaged. It also depends upon his pilot and aircraft pools.

[Canoerebel]

Seems like that's right.

[Canoerebel]

4/3/44

Battle of Timor Sea: All quiet today, as both sides continue retiring.

The ships lost screen report CVL Chitose sank, which doesn't mean a thing, but the report comes from "near Balikpapan." That might well indicate Dave's line of retreat for KB, or at least for his damaged ships.

[Canoerebel]

4/3/44

Old Battles: Confirmation that CA Myoko was sunk near Manus or Wewak during the big battles there a month or two back.

In that series of clashes, Dave lost the CA, BB Mutsu and a number of DDs and subs. The Allies suffered damage to BB South Dakota and CAs Pensacola and Louisville (all of which were repaired and have been back in action) and BB Colorado (damaged by shore guns at Rabaul and still in the yard at Pearl).

Japan has lost five BBs and seven CAs.

[Canoerebel]

4/03/44

Dave knows where the bulk of the Allied forces are, has the bulk of his in the same area, and has a strong MLR several layers deep.

Sometimes, especially earlier in a game, I'd prefer to sidestep now rather than taking on prepared enemy defenses. But I think this is the time and place to fight hard - and to do so as soon as possible, while he's still licking some of his wounds.

3rd Marine Div. is 40% prepped for Dili. That'll happen as soon as it's 50%.

APDs with handle some fast transport invasions in coming days.

And a lot of additional forces will come forward, to help flood this zone. Like short-legged SCs embedded in cargo TFs bound for Darwin, to help deal with the sub threat. ARs and perhaps an ARD will come to Darwin, as soon as I can verify that there isn't a major sub threat in the Arafura Sea.

B-29s are arriving now at Karachi, and they'll eventually stage forward to Darwin.

If the Marines can take Dili, the Japanese MLR is punctured, and Soerabaja and Balikpapan are within moderate range.

The long term plan is to move west to Java before turning north to Borneo or Mindanao. That big shipyard at Soerabaja is a high priority.

[RangerJoe]

Don't forget that now that you know where the KB is, that the KB and surface forces are depleted and damaged, this is also the time to strike elsewhere. [8D]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/2/44

His total for aircraft losses is 50% more than yours! That's remarkable, given the modern aircraft he has advanced.
I wonder if it is also affecting his pilot quality.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Don't forget that now that you know where the KB is, that the KB and surface forces are depleted and damaged, this is also the time to strike elsewhere. [8D]

Marcus was the last invasion "elsewhere" for awhile - five months of non-stop invasions and campaigning and thinking forward have me without the forces to commit out on the wings, for awhile. Allied troops and ships are gathering (and prepping) in other theaters but it'll take some time to have the right forces available.

And I'd have to be careful, anyhow. Now that KB needs some yard time, Dave may put together a Medium KB and send it someplace like Marcus, to restore order. I wouldn't like one of my CVE TFs to bump into that.

A major army is prepped at Colombo, with ships to boot, but it cannot take on big LBA until it has a lot more CVE strength.

Things aren't going to slow down in the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

….
His total for aircraft losses is 50% more than yours! That's remarkable, given the modern aircraft he has advanced.
I wonder if it is also affecting his pilot quality.

Overall, air losses for both sides have been light, in keeping with my overall strategy of minimizing his denominator. But when the Allies fight, I've worked hard to make it work right. I've given far more attention to pilot training and tactics than I've ever done before.

[Canoerebel]

4/4/44

Battle of Timor Sea: No action in the region today.

All remaining Allied TFs made Darwin today, replenishing ammo, fuel and, for the carriers, aircraft. Things look good.

Things look so good that, when I began to press "Unload" Koepang troop transports (to allow the units to recover while the ships got ready for the next campaign), it struck me that Koepang is more open now than it was before, even though I have less carriers (two less CV, two less CVL, one less CVE, but partially offset by five more CVE from the Perth TF).

So DS & The Herd will head back to sea tonight, bound for Koepang. This rather than wait the 7-9 days for 3rd Marine Div. to reach 50% on Dili prep.

Over at Marcus, Allied transports are offloading a powerful coastal CD force. Each TF that comes in loads a part of 43rd Div., toting it to the assembly point (Townsville) for its next mission. Dave has a Glen-sub here but hasn't sent anything bigger to investigate. That may change.

[ChuckBerger]

Looks to me like a tactical draw, more or less, and a strategic victory for you. He's left the field, you'll have free rein to advance across the Timor Sea, and whatever else you have planned right now.

I guess saving grace for your opponent is that KB will remain a powerful force in being, after a few months of repair and regroup.

You came close to an exchange of queens, but in the end you both retain your queens...

...or what's your take?

[T Rav]

"Edge of seat" abated for now. Well done!

[Canoerebel]

Dave put it something like this: "It was a close thing, but you edged me." I think that's about right.

Tactically, no Allied capital ship suffered more than moderate damage. It's possible only BB Alabama will go to Pearl. On the Japanese side, I think Dave will lose one or both of CV Aso and CVL Chitose, he lost CL Oyodo, and several other ships (Kaga? Shoho? Furutaka?) probably took at least moderate damage. Strategically it should be an Allied victory, since I'm able to carry on.

But all this can change momentarily. If Dave isn't as hurt as I think, perhaps he wins a carrier/LBA/combat-TF battle. Or perhaps his subs cause mayhem. (I'll post a screenie in just a moment, showing how his subs are arrayed. It's "gulp" time again.

[Canoerebel]

4/5/44

Battle of Timor Sea: DS & The Herd made six hexes today, so Koepang is about 2-3 days away.

Ordinarily, I'd approach slowly, to let ASW clear a path. But that doesn't feel right this time. This is the time to move fast, to try to catch Dave as off-guard as possible. If the subs prove too much, the armada can retire.

[HansBolter]

Set the lead ASW TF's reaction range to zero.

Unlike carrier reactions, which are a special case, they shouldn't ignore the setting.

[Canoerebel]

4/6/44

Battle of Timor Sea: The new day begins with the following questions:

1. Will DS & The Herd properly follow the lead ASW TF, or will there be issues?
2. Will enemy subs prove effective?
3. Will there be indications that Dave is sortying KB and/or combat TFs?

[Canoerebel]

4/6/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Early in nighttime hours, a small AM TF acting as ASW encounters an enemy sub on the precise lane of travel to be taken by DS & The Herd.

[Canoerebel]

4/6/44

Battle of Timor Sea: Small DD TF detached from DS to scout Koepang for merchant shipping, for signs of enemy combat vessels, and for mines. This action looks good and clean.