wneumann vs Jolly Pillager- the Allied perspective

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 12/9/43

North Pacific: Jap recon flight over Attu Is.

U.S. planes strike Paramushiro Jima. AAR follows. Paramushiro is probably the only Jap base at any point along Pillager's Japanese outer perimeter in the Pacific that is within attack range of any currently available Allied LBA (in this case reachable by only 4E bombers) - that situation being a very serious handicap in any Allied offensive ops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Paramushiro Jima , at 82,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 11
A6M5 Zeke x 9

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 15
PB4Y Liberator x 12
B-24D Liberator x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2-N Rufe: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
A6M5 Zeke: 8 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 9 damaged
PB4Y Liberator: 4 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
12 casualties reported

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 24

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
6 x PB4Y Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x PB4Y Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
3 x PB4Y Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detected status of Jap base in Paramushiro - airfield damage 1, 14 aircraft (8 fighters), one Jap TF, 3 Jap LCU's.


Central Pacific: No reported Jap air patrol activity near Kwajalein or the Canton Is area, light Jap air patrols (Ki-49 Helen, Ki-51 Sonia) reported by U.S. subs off the Japanese home islands.

This information largely confirms Pillager is concentrating at Pago Pago virtually all available Japanese LBA from the Pacific theatres. Aside from the "bad news" of U.S. transport ship losses in the Pago Pago area, two additional conclusions may be drawn - (1) there's little or no Jap LBA anywhere else, and (2) defeating or inflicting heavy losses on Japanese LBA in the Pago Pago area would greatly impact Japanese air strength throughout the Pacific.

No reported contacts between U.S. subs and Japanese surface ships or ASW near Kwajalein, Canton Is area, off Japanese home islands.

34 Japanese ships detected at anchor in Kwajalein base, 3 ships detected in port at Truk.
207 ships detected in port at Tokyo.

F-5A recon over Canton Is reporting 27 aircraft, 15 Jap LCU's.


South Pacific: Sectors other than Pago Pago area are quiet.

Day 84 of Pago Pago Operations - Weather forecast for Pago Pago area is heavy precipitation. AK Steel Ranger sinks from previous damage during Ship Damage Adjustment phases of 12/9 game turn.

Airlift of supply from Penhryn into Pago Pago with U.S. 4E bombers continues. Pago Pago base hex is at the extreme limit of 4E bombers' extended range from Penhryn Is, Upolu is completely beyond their range which eliminates any use of U.S. 4E bombers in combat ops.

The last several transport ships remaining at Upolu (all heavily damaged) still unloading a small quantity of cargo. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coastal Guns at Upolu, 95,113, firing at TF 1177
TF 1177 encounters mine field at Upolu (95,113)
TF 1177 troops unloading over beach at Upolu, 95,113

Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coastal Guns at Upolu, 95,113, firing at TF 1187
TF 1187 encounters mine field at Upolu (95,113)
TF 1187 troops unloading over beach at Upolu, 95,113

2 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coastal Guns at Upolu, 95,113, firing at TF 1177
TF 1177 encounters mine field at Upolu (95,113)
TF 1177 troops unloading over beach at Upolu, 95,113

2 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


KB remains in the same position SE of Wallis Is. Planes from the KB along with Jap LBA attack U.S. transport ships remaining at Upolu and Pago Pago - these ships all heavily damaged and attempting to unload remaining cargo before they are sunk by either enemy action or the game turn Ship Damage Adjustment phases. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, at Pago Pago - 96,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 12
A6M5 Zeke x 137
N1K1-J George x 5
D4Y Judy x 97
A6M3a Zero x 5
B6N2 Jill x 185

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 8
F4U-1 Corsair x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 5 destroyed, 13 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 4 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied Ships (all later sunk))
AK James Lick, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
AK Horace Wells, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
TK Malacca, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
AK Jack London, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AK Henry L. Hoyt, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
2 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, at Pago Pago - 96,113

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 28

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
AK Leonidas Merritt, Bomb hits 6, on fire, heavy damage (system damage 96, float 34, fire 19)
AK John S. Casement, Bomb hits 9, on fire, heavy damage (system damage 99, float 68, fire 19)
TK Gulfbelle, Bomb hits 2, on fire (system damage 40, float 6, fire 19)
AK Joseph Simon, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (system damage 57, float 78, fire 9)

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, at Pago Pago - 96,113

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
AK Joseph K. Toole
AK Matthew B. Brady, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (later sunk)
AK Margaret Fuller, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (system damage 84, float 82, fire 19)

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, at Upolu - 95,113

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 24

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AK Draco, Bomb hits 5, on fire, heavy damage (later sunk)

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 95,115 (S of Upolu)

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 24
B6N2 Jill x 17

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AK Fort Wilhemus, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage (later sunk)

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Air strikes mainly by Jap LBA against base facilities on Pago Pago and Savaii, also ground attack strikes against U.S. LCU's on Upolu. The last operational U.S. fighter planes transferred into Pago Pago airbase on 12/7 and 12/8 went up as CAP this game turn, nearly all these planes are now grounded in damaged status. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Pago Pago , at 96,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 9
A6M5 Zeke x 84
N1K1-J George x 5
J1N1-S Irving x 11
B6N2 Jill x 71
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 19
Ki-45 KAIb Nick x 35
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 20
Ki-49 Helen x 46
Ki-48-II Lily x 63

Allied aircraft
F6F Hellcat x 40
F4U-1 Corsair x 32

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3 Zero: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
A6M5 Zeke: 10 destroyed, 27 damaged
N1K1-J George: 3 damaged
J1N1-S Irving: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed, 11 damaged
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
Ki-45 KAIb Nick: 3 destroyed, 21 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 3 destroyed, 5 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 1 destroyed, 13 damaged
Ki-48-II Lily: 19 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 37 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 17 destroyed

Allied ground losses:
532 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 5

Airbase hits 23
Airbase supply hits 7
Runway hits 58

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
6 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
6 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
9 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
9 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
6 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
4 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
6 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Savaii , at 95,112

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 20
B6N2 Jill x 46

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 2 damaged

Allied ground losses:
24 casualties reported

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 43

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
7 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
12 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
6 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
6 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 37th US Division, at 95,113 (Upolu)

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 4
G4M2 Betty x 4
P1Y Frances x 21

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
78 casualties reported
Guns lost 4

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
2 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
4 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
4 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 1st US Cavalry Division, at 95,113 (Upolu)

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 13
G4M2 Betty x 11
P1Y Frances x 29

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 3 damaged

Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
5 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
13 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
11 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
6 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ground bombardment attack launched by Jap ground forces on Upolu. Two new Jap LCU's appear on Upolu as reinforcements. Jap 7 Field Artillery Brig moved into Pago Pago from Port Arthur (last reported there on 11/5/43). Arshaan Garrison Rgt was moved onto Pago Pago from Wallis Is - this LCU had been on Wallis Is for some time and was also previously with the Kwantung Army. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Upolu

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 26508 troops, 187 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 518
42nd, 51st, 53rd & 61st Naval Gd; Sasebo 7 SNLF, 51 Independent Mixed Brigade (-), 9 & 11 Independent Mixed Rgts,
Arshan Garrison Rgt, 7 Field Artillery Brigade,140 IJN Base Force, 127 IJNAF Base Force (-), 5 AF Construction Bn (-),
9 AF Construction Bn, 24 Aviation Unit, 2 Aviation Rgt, 10 Special Base Force (-)

Defending force 63318 troops, 274 guns, 32 vehicles, Assault Value = 1353
1st Cavalry, Americal, 32nd, 37th & 1st Marine Divisions, HQ I Amphibious Corps

Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported

Allied ground losses:
225 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 12/9/43 - continued

Australia: Ground attack strikes by U.S. and Australian planes against Jap LCU's in NW Australia. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 51st AA Regiment, at 35,85 (Jap LCU detected along rail line outside Darwin on 12/8)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 18
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 21

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 36
B-24J Liberator x 70

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 9 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 11 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 12 damaged
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 24 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
189 casualties reported
Guns lost 6

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
4 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
6 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
4 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
4 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
6 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
4 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 15000 feet
3 x B-24J Liberator bombing at 10000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 3rd Mountain Gun Regiment, at 35,90 (Daly Waters)

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk III x 30

Allied aircraft losses
Kittyhawk III: 30 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
12 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x Kittyhawk III attacking at 100 feet
10 x Kittyhawk III attacking at 100 feet
10 x Kittyhawk III attacking at 100 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hudson I recon over Exmouth reports 30 aircraft (14 bombers believed to be G4M Bettys), 5 Jap LCU's.
Hudson I recon over Darwin reporting fighters on CAP, 1 Jap TF, 8 Jap LCU's.
26 Jap LCU's detected in Daly Waters base hex.


DEI: SS Snook reports contact with Jap AK in a night action off Singapore. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at 24,52

Japanese Ships
AK Shunsho Maru

Allied Ships
SS Snook

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sigint report entry for 12/9 indicates Jap 4 Construction Bn now located in Soerabaja. Previous location of this LCU was Heijo (northern Korea) on 2/25/43.


India/Burma: No reported ground or air combat.

F-5C recon over Rangoon reports 1 Jap TF, (+1 from last report), 1 ship disbanded in port (+1 from last report), 712 aircraft (312 fighters, 59 bombers), 9 Jap LCU's, heavy industry 52(141).

CW-22 Falcon recon over Magwe reporting 8 Jap LCU's.

Two Chinese 2E bomber squadrons upgrading at Delhi from SB-2c's to B-25J Mitchell. Both these squadrons have pilots with 90 experience level but the squadrons are without planes (replacement pool for SB-2c is at zero). Upgrading Chinese AF squadrons may not be top priority, it's more a matter of getting these pilots into some planes and back to the front lines.


China: Jap recon flights over Chungking and Tuyun. AAR's of latest Jap air strikes in China follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 75th Chinese Corps, at 42,33 (SE of Chungking)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 23

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
31 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 5th Chinese Cavalry Corps, at 41,34 (Kweiyang)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 10

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
19 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
4 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Japanese ground forces continue bombardment attacks at Tuyun and near Chungking, also action outside Kweiyang. AAR's follow.

Jap LCU's attacking at Tuyun reinforced with 29th & 60th Divisions, also 19 & 27 Engineer Rgts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Tuyun

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 240724 troops, 1018 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 6510
3rd, 6th, 13th, 22nd, 34th, 36th, 40th, 41st, 65th, 104th, 110th & 116th Infantry Divisions;
3rd Tank Division; 1 Independent Brigade; 1 Yobi Ebi Rgt, 2, 8, & 20 Engineer Rgts;
2 Mountain Gun Rgt, 2 RF Gun Bn, 6 & 15 FA Rgts, 13 & 15 Tank Rgts, HQ 23rd Army
Defending force 45869 troops, 8 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1377
37th, 46th, 60th, 62nd, 64th, 74th, 79th & 99th Chinese Corps; 71st Chinese Division;
27th Chinese Guerilla Corps; HQ 1st, 2nd, 16th & 20th Group Armies

Allied ground losses:
117 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 42,34 (E of Kweiyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 86249 troops, 357 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1718
26th, 39th & 58th Infantry Divisions, 14 FA Rgt, 16 Aviation Rgt

Defending force 6122 troops, 56 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 192
10th & 31st Chinese Corps (these LCU continually re-entering this hex from Kweiyang to "run interference" preventing Japanese ground forces from moving to enter Kweiyang base hex itself - no actual intent to capture or defend the hex)

Japanese max assault: 1631 - adjusted assault: 2280
Allied max defense: 186 - adjusted defense: 19
Japanese assault odds: 120 to 1

Japanese ground losses:
446 casualties reported
Guns lost 4

Allied ground losses:
1223 casualties reported
Guns lost 28

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 42,33 (SE of Chungking)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 868 troops, 36 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 962
32nd & 47th Infantry Divisions, 1 Mortar Bn
Defending force 35138 troops, 127 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 984
21st, 23rd, 63rd, 75th, 86th & 96th Chinese Corps

[wneumann]

Another question in the "time out" category....

Suggestions would be appreciated on any possible ways to increase the number of U.S. sub contacts and attacks on Japanese ships. Not so much what location(s) to send the subs, a bit more ideas on anything I can do with the game mechanics for subs that is outside the "gamey" category.

This to anyone participating in or entering the recent "time out" discussions - I'd be happy to research and answer specific questions, also put together and post situation maps for specific areas or locations as quickly as possible on request. I appreciate all the input. I've run into a bit of a wall lately and value the ideas on alternatives to the direction of strategy I've been going in.

Unfortunately the Pago Pago operation was the first WitP amphibious invasion I've done in any version (stock, CHS) of WitP vs a human opponent. Also, I still don't really have a good "feel" for Allied plane, ship, and LCU capabilities in CHS. I have been playing conservatively in many respects, but in many instances I also have less than total confidance that "the gun will shoot when I pull the trigger" or if it does nothing. Kinda hard to take on the KB if you're not sure half your carrier planes will leave the flight deck, or shoot and drop ordnance if they do - I've had this experience early and often in WitP with Allied LBA.

[Canoerebel]

I haven't read much of your AAR, so I'm unfamiliar with nearly all of the factors that go into your decision making.  Based upon the general tone of your recent posts and some specifics mentioned therein, here are some "sweeping" thoughts from me:
 
1) Initiative has changed now from Japs to Allies.  You shouldn't need to fear a major Jap invasion at this point.  Spoiling or nuisance invasions, yes, but not major operations that would threaten key Allied positions.
 
2)  For that reason, many/most of your bases can be defended by relatively small garrisons supported by big forts, mines, LBA, and the ability to bring in other help (surface combat ships, reinforcements by air transports, etc.) in an emergency.
 
3.  This should free up alot of troops for major offensives.  IE, if you want to strike somewhere far, far away, you can pretty much empty CenPac (or some other region) to do so.
 
4.  After I urged you to "forget" Wake, you made another post that indicated it's still possibly in your plans.  Son, you need to FORGET atolls that are so far from the Japanese heartland.  Atolls take time and inflict tons of damage.  FORGET them.  You don't NEED them. 
 
5.  In your recent posts you tip-toe around the idea of maybe, just maybe, putting together a force to try and hopefully, perhaps, if you're lucky, take a small base in the DEI.  FORGET THAT!  Son, you are the aggressor now. 
 
6.  What you need to orchestrate is a massive, overwhelming, unstoppable armada that invades some MAJOR Japanese terrtiory.  The kind of territory that gives you several big bases in close proximity to either the Home Islands or Palembag/Batavia/Soerabaja/Balikpan so that you can begin a BIG strategic bombing campaign by Spring '44.  If you hit the DEI, you could put together such a massive armada filled with countless Brit/Indian/ANZAC/American troops and escorts and all carriers (and supply ships!) that your opponent won't know what hit him. If instead you head north to Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island, you should bring many many American troops, all American carriers, and set up a "colony" that will leave your opponent breathless.
 
7.  A little deception would help.  One (and just one) strategy that I would consider:
 
a) Continue giving a credible appearance that you are focused on Pago Pago.  This would hopefully mislead your opponent so that he didn't perceive the REAL threat.
b)  Get all the rest of the American assets ready to invade Sikhalin Island and some of the Kuriles.  Start prepping.  Make sure you bring ALOT of supplies.  Set D-Day for, say, March 1 (the date that winter restrictions end).
c)  Plan a major attack by the Aussies and Brits that will compliment the Sikhalin Island invasion.  Possibly this could go first (slightly before the American operation) to draw your opponent's attention to the DEI.  But if possible you want this to be such a major strike that it also can stand by itself and also poses a threat to the Japs.
d)  Find a target somewhere in China or Indochina that is vulnerable.  Then prep a MASSIVE Chinese army to strike that target.  Time that strike for just before the other operations to get your opponent worried about China or Indochina too.
 
You'll be getting B-29s in April, 1944, right?  By then you need big airbases within, say, 18 hexes (max range is 27, but that's too far and leaves the crews too fatigued) of major industrial targets.
 
When I say Massive Invasions, we're talking about six to ten divisions (assuming that Sikhalin Island isn't uber-defended), lots of engineers and base forces, artillery, tanks, and perhaps 500k supplies to allow you to get up and running.  You'll have a fleet of, what, 6-8 CVs, a similar number of CVLs, and perhaps 10-15 CVEs?  That should scare your opponent to death.  But if you are successful in your misdirections, your opponent may not even have the KB in position to participate in the fight.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 12/10/43

First, today's developments...

North Pacific: Jap recon flight over Attu. Otherwise quiet.


Central Pacific: U.S. subs reporting no Jap air patrol activity near Kwajalein, Canton Is area.

Increased Jap air patrol contacts reported by U.S. subs off Japanese home islands - spotted planes include G5N Liz, Ki-49 Helen, Ki-51 Sonia, F1M2 & E13A1 floatplanes.

204 ships detected in port at Tokyo.

SS Bonefish northwest of Kwajalein reports contact with Jap transport TF (9 ships, moving on NW heading). Possible empty Jap transports returning to the home islands. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at 78,82

Japanese Ships
AP Kensho Maru, Torpedo hits 1
PC Shonan Maru #2
PG Kanko Maru
PG Busho Maru

Allied Ships
SS Bonefish

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11 Japanese ships detected in port at Kwajalein, 10 ships detected in port at Truk.

Detected status of Jap base at Canton Is - 26 aircraft, 15 Jap LCU's (no change).


South Pacific: Sectors other than Pago Pago area quiet.

Pago Pago, Day 85 of the Fiasco - Weather forecast for Pago Pago area is overcast. No ground combat on Upolu this game turn.

Damaged CVL Langley arrives at Penhryn. Rest of U.S. Carrier Main Force expected to reach Penhryn by end of 12/11 game turn. U.S. Carrier Force TF's literally overran a Jap submarine six hexes out from Penhryn. AAR of this action follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 104,114

Japanese Ships
SS RO-33, hits 7

Allied Ships
DD Smith
DD Perkins
DD Cushing

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Transport TF's returning from Pago Pago with a total of 60 ships and landing craft reached Penhryn this game turn. Other transport TF's with a total of 19 additional ships and landing craft still enroute back to Penhryn - many ships in these TF have damage from enemy action, some of these expected to sink before reaching Penhryn.

Pillager has at least one Jap MSW back on picket duty to the east of Pago Pago. Following action a surface naval combat involving a damaged U.S. AK attempting to leave Pago Pago. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat at 98,114 (ESE of Pago Pago)

Japanese Ships
MSW Himejima Maru

Allied Ships
AK Liberty, Shell hits 1 (later sunk)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current status of Pago Pago base - runway damage 22, airfield service damage 36, port damage 0.
Current status of Savaii base - runway damage 99, airfield service damage 100, port damage 9.
Status display of U.S. LBA on Pago Pago airfield follows end of this report.

Jap recon flight over Pago Pago. Detected position of KB is three hexes west of Upolu. Jap LBA possibly along with KB planes strike

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Pago Pago , at 96,113

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III Dinah x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-46-III Dinah: 1 damaged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Pago Pago , at 96,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 22
J1N1-S Irving x 3
B6N2 Jill x 72
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 3

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 24 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed
PBM Mariner: 1 destroyed
P-47C Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Allied ground losses:
74 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Vehicles lost 2

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 19

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
10 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
9 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
7 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
5 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Savaii , at 95,112

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 48

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 4 damaged


Allied ground losses:
6 casualties reported

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 18

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
12 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
6 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
6 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What appears to be mainly Jap LBA continuing naval air strikes against one damaged U.S. AK attempting to leave Pago Pago. Five other damaged transports still unloading at Pago Pago were left undisturbed. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 97,114

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 13
A6M5 Zeke x 154
N1K1-J George x 5
A6M3a Zero x 5
B6N2 Jill x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 1 damaged

Allied Ships
AK Liberty, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage (later sunk)

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 97,114

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 8
B6N2 Jill x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AK Liberty, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (later sunk)

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 97,114

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 8

No Japanese losses

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[wneumann]

Status display of LCU's on Pago Pago as of 12/10/43.

[wneumann]

Status display of LCU's on Upolu as of 12/10/43. I'm way less than convinced I have 101K supply on Upolu unless I'm drawing supply from the Japanese - no way I was able to put that much on Upolu.

[wneumann]

Status display of LCU's on Savaii as of 12/10/43.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 12/10/43 - continued

Australia: No reported ground or air combat.

Catalina I recon over Port Moresby reporting N1K Nik fighters on CAP, 7 Jap LCU's.
Hudson I recon over Darwin reporting fighters on CAP, one Jap TF, 8 Jap LCU's.
Hudson I recon over Exmouth reporting 25 aircraft (10 bombers), 5 Jap LCU's.


India/Burma: Chinese AF fighters launch ground strikes on Jap LCU's in Magwe, Myitkyina. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 1st Reserve Tank Regiment, at 36,28 (Myitkyina)

Allied aircraft
P-47D Thunderbolt x 12

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
6 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x P-47D Thunderbolt attacking at 100 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 55th Division, at 31,29 (Magwe)

Allied aircraft
P-40N Warhawk x 142

Allied aircraft losses
P-40N Warhawk: 25 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
55 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

Aircraft Attacking:
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
10 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet
12 x P-40N Warhawk attacking at 100 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CW-22 Falcon recon over Magwe reporting 8 Jap LCU's.

F-5C recon over Rangoon reports no Jap TF (-1 from last report), 1 ship in port, 721 aircraft (297 fighters, 53 bombers). 9 Jap LCU's, heavy industry 53(140).


China: Jap recon flight over Chungking. AAR's of latest Jap air strikes in China follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 61st Chinese Corps, at 46,27 (Kungchang)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 6 damaged

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 62nd Chinese Corps, at 41,35 (Tuyun)

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 17
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 8
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 23
Ki-51 Sonia x 74
Ki-21-II Sally x 12
Ki-48-II Lily x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
29 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Ki-43-Ib Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
9 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 10000 feet
18 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
16 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
8 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
17 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
8 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
6 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
9 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
12 x Ki-21-II Sally bombing at 6000 feet
15 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
17 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 95th Chinese Corps, at 44,31 (N of Chungking)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 24

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
6 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 64th Chinese Corps, at 41,35 (Tuyun)

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 4
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 3
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 6
Ki-51 Sonia x 24
Ki-21-II Sally x 4
Ki-48-II Lily x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-43-Ib Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
6 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
6 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-51 Sonia bombing at 2000 feet
4 x Ki-21-II Sally bombing at 6000 feet
3 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
4 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 64th Chinese Corps, at 41,35 (Tuyun)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 44
Ki-46-III Dinah x 1

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
32 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
12 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 5th Chinese Cavalry Corps, at 41,34 (Kweiyang)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 9

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
4 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jap ground forces bombard near Chungking, launch major attack at Tuyun. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Tuyun

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 321923 troops, 1279 guns, 402 vehicles, Assault Value = 6556
3rd, 6th, 13th, 22nd, 29th, 34th, 36th, 40th, 41st, 60th, 65th, 104th, 110th & 116th Infantry Divisions; 3rd Tank Division; 1 Independent Brigade; 1 Yobi Ebi Rgt,
2, 8, 19, 20,& 27 Engineer Rgts; 2 Mountain Gun Rgt, 2 RF Gun Bn, 6 & 15 FA Rgts, 13 & 15 Tank Rgts, HQ 23rd Army
Defending force 46025 troops, 8 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1393
37th, 46th, 60th, 62nd, 64th, 74th, 79th & 99th Chinese Corps; 71st Chinese Division;
27th Chinese Guerilla Corps; HQ 1st, 2nd, 16th & 20th Group Armies

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 6
Japanese max assault: 6483 - adjusted assault: 5797
Allied max defense: 1280 - adjusted defense: 2229
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 6)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 6

Japanese ground losses:
4163 casualties reported
Guns lost 72
Vehicles lost 7

Allied ground losses:
3164 casualties reported
Guns lost 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 42,33

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 868 troops, 36 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 958
32nd & 47th Infantry Divisions, 1 Mortar Bn
Defending force 35083 troops, 126 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 983
21st, 23rd, 63rd, 75th, 86th & 96th Chinese Corps

[wneumann]

Some strategic considerations...

(1) I am heavily leaning towards Canoerebel's idea of shifting U.S. offensive operations in the Pacific to the north. Taking Sakhalin, Paramushiro Jima, plus one or more of the other Kurile Islands to threaten the Japanese homeland and a "launch pad" for 4E bombers to strike Japan proper.

Several advantages I see with a northern campaign -

It keeps the USN in the Pacific, relatively close to its supply base and also major shipyards on the U.S. west coast for ship repairs and refits. Australian and Indian bases do not have anywhere near the close-in support capability for U.S. naval forces.

It is a relatively shorter distance (and time) to re-group U.S. LBA and ground forces from the West Coast and elsewhere in the Pacific theatres.

Facilities at U.S. bases in the Aleutians are built-up in most cases to maximum airfield and port sizes. Bases in the outer Aleutians can already support naval and amphibious ops (though with more supply and fuel stocks than they have now) and are as close to Japanese-controlled territory as anywhere else.

The time frame to launch a northern offensive (3/44) suggested by Canoerebel is attainable, though April could be more desirable as it's appearing I'm somewhat dependent on LCU reinforcements (particularly INF divisions) arriving in the next 120 game turns. Availability of other U.S. LCU types is not a concern - plenty of these available, just have to move them up north from wherever they are now.

I am posting below a listing of available U.S. LCU's in the Pacific theatres with current locations.

To reach Sakhalin and establish anything approaching a secure transport route into there, Paramushiro Jima will certainly have to be taken as well as at least one of two of the smaller Kurile Islands immediately to the south of Paramushiro.


(2) Pago Pago. I agree with both Feinder and Canoerebel on maintaining this operation at some level. First, as a diversion to keep Japanese attention in the south. Equally important is to preserve (as much as possible) the ten U.S. divisions and other LCU's caught in the Samoan Islands - also keeping open the possibility of later extracting at least some of these LCU's from their present circumstances and getting them available for operations elsewhere.

To implement this, Feinder's point of getting an Aviation Rgt onto Pago Pago to provide additional general purpose and aviation support elements is in the immediate plans - this along with as much supply as possible. U.S. forces on Upolu and Savaii will have to make do for now - hopefully they can.

The operations needed for getting an operational airfield up on Pago Pago will keep at least some of Pillager's attention drawn in this area. An operational airfield on Pago Pago allows U.S. LBA fighters to engage and destroy Jap air strength, bombers to hit nearby targets (particularly the Jap airfield on Upolu), and transport planes to ferry supply from Pago Pago to Upolu and Savaii.

Short-term plans for the U.S. Carrier Main Force is keeping them in the south and mainly operating in the Pago Pago area. This move is consistant with keeping Pillager's attention fixed to the south, also has the benefit of keeping the KB locked up in the South Pacific and presence of U.S. carriers is vital to supporting any transport operations into Pago Pago.

If possible, at least one or more U.S. carrier TF's will be rotated or withdrawn from action near Pago Pago to allow ship refits as the situation allows. Basically, plans are to keep U.S. carriers to the south until the last possible moment before operations in the north.


(3) An attack in the south against the DEI with Australian and/or British forces. I'm still working on a picture of how many and exactly which LCU's from India and Australia would be available and where they will come from. I'm posting below a list of New Zealand and Australian LCU's with current locations. A similar list for India is forthcoming.

Several hurdles and considerations re: this operation.

The Royal Navy not particularly strong in numbers or ships to support an amphibious operation. Except for one CVE plus CVL Unicorn due to enter the game in 8 turns as a reinforcement, the British carrier fleet is non-existent. The others are rusting on the bottom.

The Repulse and BB Ramillies are now the only Allied battleships in the Indian Ocean area. BB's Repulse and Prince of Wales are reparing on the U.S. West Coast from battle damage in the initial Pago Pago landings. BC Renown and BB's Queen Elizabeth, Valiant and Revenge are due to enter the game as reinforcements within the next 60 turns or so. A full complement of British & Commonwealth cruisers and destroyers are available. The bad news is that I did all the British ship withdrawals, the good news is that I still have the ships.

Lots and lots of transports (AK and AP).

Availability of Australian ground forces has things to take into account.

I'm facing 26 detected Jap LCU's in Daly Waters (including Jap 2nd & 5th Divisions) - sufficient Allied ground forces are needed in Tennant Creek to stay "across the table" from them.

Plans are to go ahead with a land operation against Portland Roads in NE Australia, this operation to eliminate any Jap foothold on this part of the continent and free further Allied LCU's for things elsewhere.

I do have 7th Australian Division holding down Colombo, this unit is available along with whatever else is dredged out of India. As far as available Indian ground forces for the DEI, a closer look will have to be taken on them.

Some good news on LCU availablity for a DEI operation - many "deceased" Allied LCU's were salvaged from the Philippines, Singapore and elsewhere and exist as full or near full strength LCU's. This roster includes 4 Marine Rgt, 31 US RCT and HQ USAFFE from the Philippines, 22 & 27 Australian AIF Brigades from Singapore, five Indian and one Commonwealth brigades also salvaged from Singapore, plus a small collection of Dutch and Australian LCU's rescued from various places now in Japanese hands.

Few U.S. ground forces in Australia - other than the above mentioned 4 USMC Rgt and 31 RCT, there's the 40th Division and some tank & artillery LCU's. That's it.

Much needs to be worked out for the DEI.


(4) China. Forget it. The Chinese army is very badly depleted and suitable for not more than passive defence ops on the Chinese mainland. Absolutely no help.


(5) India & Burma. Holding it should not be a problem unless Pillager overruns China and turns a horde of divisions from the China armies to the south.

There's probably more but that can be brought up later or if someone brings it up first.

[wneumann]

This post lists U.S. & Canadian combat LCU's in Pacific theatres and the U.S/Canadian mainland (excluding base forces and engineering units) with their current locations. LCU's stuck on Pago Pago/Upolu/Savaii are not included here as they are "temporarily" unavailable for operations in the near future.

Prince Rupert: 15 Canadian Brigade
Vancouver 13, 19 & 20 Canadian Brigades
Victoria: 14 Canadian Brigade
San Francisco: 4 Marine Division, HQ V Amphibious Force, 191 Artillery Group,
XIV Corps Artillery, 763 & 767 Tank Bns, 708 Armored Amphib Bn,
30, 40, & 144 FA Rgts, 1 USMC Armored Amphib Bn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anchorage: 4 RCT
Kodiak: 153 RCT
Dutch Harbor: 37 & 58 RCT
Adak: 138 & 279 RCT
Amchitka: 53 & 159 RCT
Attu Is: 201 RCT

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pearl Harbor: 24th & 25th Infantry Divisions, HQ I Corps, 34 Combat Engr Rgt,
72 & 183 FA Rgts, 198 FA Bn, 640 TD Bn
Hilo: 4 USMC Para Bn, 188 FA Rgt
Kona: 33rd Infantry Division, 2 USMC Para Bn, 2 USMC Raider Bn
Johnston Is: 125 &140 RCT
Laysan Is: 198 RCT
Midway: 111 & 197 RCT

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Palmyra: 7th Infantry Division, 161 RCT, 4 USMC Raider Bn,
HQ’s V Amphib & XIV Corps, 641 TD Bn
Washington Is: 2 Philippine Rgt
Fanning Is: 1 Philippine Div, 150 RCT, 754 Tank Bn
Christmas Is: 112 Cavalry Rgt, 102 RCT
Jarvis Is: 3 USMC Raider Bn, 3 USMC Para Bn


Penhryn Is: 2 Marine Division, 503 Para Rgt, 24 & 298 RCT, 1 USMC Raider Bn,
1 USMC Para Bn, 19 Combat Engr Rgt, 1 USMC Medium Tank Bn
Papaete: 33 & 147 RCT
Aitutaki: 5 & 158 RCT


U.S. reinforcements due to enter game within 120 Days: 6th Marine Division, four U.S. Army divisions, one RCT, two Corps HQ’s, one Amphibious Force HQ, two Corps Artillery LCU’s, one Artillery Group, three Tank Bns, three TD Bns, one USMC Armored Amphib Bn

[wneumann]

This post lists Australian & New Zealand combat LCU's. This list also excludes base force and engineering units.

Auckland: Fiji Infantry Brigade; 1, 8 & 14 NZ Brigades, 1 NZ Cavalry Brigade
Gisborne: 2 NZ Cavalry Brigade
Wellington: 2 NZ Brigade, Norfolk Is Force
Christchurch: 3 NZ Brigade, 3 NZ Cavalry Brigade


Adelaide: 6 Australian Cavalry Brigade
Melbourne: 9th Australian Division AIF, Sparrow Force Bn, 2/6 Armored Rgt,
Makassar Garrison Bn (Dutch)
Sydney: 2nd Australian Division
Newcastle: NGVR Infantry Bn
Brisbane: 7 Australian Brigade
Rockhampton: 29 Australian Brigade
Townsville: 1st Australian Division
Cairns: 1st Australian Cavalry Division

Cooktown: US 40th Infantry Division; 11, 22 AIF, 27 AIF, 31 Australian Brigades;
Lark Force Bn, 2/5 Independent Co, HQ US III Corps, US 148 FA Bn, US 82 CM Bn, 1 1 Australian Artillery Rgt, 3 Australian AT Rgt, 4 Australian Tank Rgt, 2 & 3 Australian Tank Bns, 2/4 & 2/8 Armored Rgts, US 632 TD Bn
Coen: 1 Australian Motor Brigade, 2/1 & 2/3 Independent Cos

LCU’s in Cooktown and Coen plus 32 Australian Brigade now prepping for attack on Jap base at Portland Roads.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tennant Creek: 3rd & 4th Australian Divisions, 2nd Australian Cavalry Division, 23 Australian Brigade AIF, 31 US RCT,
4 USMC Rgt, Gull Force Bn, 2/2 & 2/4 Independent Cos, HQ I Australian Corps, HQ Australian 1st Army, 131 US FA Bn,
147 US FA Rgt; 1, 2, 101 & 106 Australian AT Rgts, 2/9 Armored Rgt, 1 Australian Army Tank Bn


Perth: 6th Australian Division AIF, 3 Australian Brigade
Geraldton: 13 Australian Brigade

7th Australian Division AIF located at Colombo

Australian/NZ combat LCU reinforcements due to enter game within 120 Days: none

[Canoerebel]

For what they're worth, additional thoughts:

1.  You have all kinds of troops available in CenPac and NoPac, going by the roster you posted.  Start planning how to get them to the main staging point or points.  Do it quietly, of course!

2.  The success of an operation like this depends upon surprise and the enemy being unprepared.  You should carefully monitor and record SigInt sightings of troops on Hokkaido, Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and (if he holds any) the Aleutians.  If he's clearly prepared or clearly expecting an attack, you may have to scrap the plan.  Have a backup, because you'll want to strike somewhere else (in that event, something's tipped his hand and you can continue to give the appearance that you're coming when in fact you're looking somewhere else, maybe far far away).

3.  You can get some useful intel just by the size of the bases.  If your opponent is building (or has built) the Sikhalin bases, he may be expecting trouble.  But if they're small and from all appearances undefended or lightly defended, your plan should work.  Rely upon that info and SigInt; don't begin an obvious buildup or recon flights or send ships that way; don't do ANYTHING that will altert your opponent to your intentions.  A small and poorly organized surprise attack against an unprepared enemy can often succeed where a massive, well-prepared invasion against a prepared enemy would fail.

4.  You need surprise and you need to move quickly.  If your opponent is unprepared, I'd have my invasion armada set to hit the beaches by March 1 (or as soon as I can possibly have my troops loaded and the ships sent to the Bering Sea vicinity.  It's mid-December, so you might can do it if you hurry.

5.  For whatever reason, a Jap player who isn't expecting a NoPac attack will still have Paramushiro defended.  It just seems like an "obvious" target.  Don't get bogged down in an opposed landing.  If it appears defended, bypass Paramushiro and look instead to Sikhalin (two big bases there), one or two or three or more of the Kuriles (they are likely undefended and of little use to your opponent, but landing there creates a sense of mayhem for the Japs and gives you a little buffer zone to work with).  Tiny fragments of an RCT should be sufficient to take undefended Kuriles.  In the Mod I play Onnekotan Jima is also a good target as it can be built up to rival Paramushiro.  If not already held, the western Aleutians bases are important too.  If already held, don't start building them yet, but build quickly as soon as D-Day begins.

6.  If you are successful, your opponent is in deep do-do.  You'll be able to build big bases (two on Sikhalin, and possbily Onnekotan too).  Your flank and supply line will be protected by big bases in the western Aleutians.  And in short order you'll have big air bases operational just as B-29s become available to the Allies.  Of course, bring engineers and sufficient supplies (500k is my guesstimate) to allow you to get things up and running quickly and then operate until you get supply convoys working.

7.   A massive strike like this is going to panic your opponent and he's going to turn all his attention this way.  It will create a sudden vaccuum elsewhere on the map.  Be prepared to take advantage of that vaccuum by invading other places in SoPac, SWPac, etc.  You probably want to adopt the island hopping campaign, avoiding strongly held Jap bases in favor of lightly held bases that can be built up.

8.  Creating noise elsewhere just PRIOR to your NoPac invasion should also throw the Japs off balance and add to the sense of mayhem.  The Brits and Aussies should be prepared to engage in separate or combined invasions that will be a threat to the Japs.  The DEI (Timor, Java, Sumatra) are obvious targets.  The sudden vaccum effect created by the Sikhalin invasion may benefit you down here.  If things get to hot for the main invasion, you may also want to have a separate smaller force set to hit somewhere else - Ambon?  Ceram?  Some lightly defended but buildable western New Guinea base?

9.  Remember to have the Chinese striking to just before all the (*#(@#$& hits the fan to further rattle your opponent.

10.  I am not familiar with the particulars of your game, so reject all or parts of my plan if you know there are problems with it.  But the point is you should be developing a massive, well-coordinated campaigns that will throw the enemy into confusion and allow you to get big, mutually supporting bases within range of key Japanese targets (Home Islands or the big DEI oil/resource centers).

11.  In the meantime, keep up appearances at Pago Pago.  If you aren't able to get the upper hand before then, the vaccuum effect of Sikhalin invasion ought to allow you to take control here and salvage the situation.  You DON'T want to lose ten divisions that are here.

12.  Don't risk a major carrier defeat before the invasion.  You need (and will have) a huge number of carriers by March 1944.  You'll really be able to go anywhere you want at least one time (and more than once if you win any ensuing carrier battles). 

13.  If you have carrier superiority or parity, if Sikhalin is essentially undefended or very lightly defended, and if you bring the kitchen sink including supplies, you will win.  Your opponent cannot stop you, and thirty days later you'll have two big air bases operational and flying P-38s, Corsairs, B-24s, and B-29s.  Your opponent will be doing the shivering.  While that's going on right at his doorstep, all other areas suddenly become a backwater (at least until your opponent regains his equilibrium) so that you should be able to advance rather rapidly.  Don't waste your time advancing step-by-step on the far reaches of the Jap perimter.  Ignore his perimeter and head toward his underbelly, leaving his perimater to become a useless frontier that withers away from irrelevance.

14.  Good luck!

[wneumann]

For what they're worth, additional thoughts:

1.  You have all kinds of troops available in CenPac and NoPac, going by the roster you posted.  Start planning how to get them to the main staging point or points.  Do it quietly, of course!

Starting to move them should not be a great problem. Despite the transport and landing craft losses at Pago Pago, there's still enough Allied shipping in the Pacific theatres to pick up and move troops and cargo. Just a matter of getting transports to where they're needed when they're needed. For security purposes, I intend to route transport convoys well to the rear or at least far enough back where there's little or no possibility of Japanese detection in any form.

2.  The success of an operation like this depends upon surprise and the enemy being unprepared.  You should carefully monitor and record SigInt sightings of troops on Hokkaido, Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, and (if he holds any) the Aleutians.  If he's clearly prepared or clearly expecting an attack, you may have to scrap the plan.  Have a backup, because you'll want to strike somewhere else (in that event, something's tipped his hand and you can continue to give the appearance that you're coming when in fact you're looking somewhere else, maybe far far away).!

I've been keeping detailed information (spreadsheet) of the full roster of known Japanese LCU's going back to 12/41, this list including identities of units, their last known location, and the date (game turn) when they were known to be there. Information for this list was obtained mainly from Sigint, also from ground combat and ground attack air strike AAR's. Making a long story short... if I saw it, it's on the record.

Another practice I've done mainly in Burma, NW Australia and China is launching small ground attack air strikes on detected Jap LCU's within range of Allied planes that are seen moving (along rail lines, etc) between their bases. Not so much for a few Jap casualties, it's the intel value. Anything that get hit goes into the list. Recent larger scale low-level ground attack strikes into Jap bases in NW Australia and interior areas of Burma also do the job - getting more Jap LCU information, plus these strikes actually inflict Jap casualties.

My estimate is at any given time my Jap LCU "listing" is 95%+ complete and 80% or so accurate. Accuracy of the known location for a Jap LCU can be readily gauged by how "old" the information is, also how many times this LCU has been sighted in the same location.

From my Jap LCU list it is easily concluded that Pillager has stripped garrisons in Manchuria and Korea to the bare minimum (do I wish I had the Russians right now). Most of these troops have reappeared in bases all over the Pacific - their new locations all recorded on the list. The information here very heavily supports your recommendation on not attacking atolls.

Santa has his list (of good and bad Jap LCU's) - now just a matter of time before Christmas.

3. You can get some useful intel just by the size of the bases.  If your opponent is building (or has built) the Sikhalin bases, he may be expecting trouble.  But if they're small and from all appearances undefended or lightly defended, your plan should work.  Rely upon that info and SigInt; don't begin an obvious buildup or recon flights or send ships that way; don't do ANYTHING that will altert your opponent to your intentions.  A small and poorly organized surprise attack against an unprepared enemy can often succeed where a massive, well-prepared invasion against a prepared enemy would fail.

I have monitored Jap base sizes to some extent. Pillager seems to build the ones he's using to their max sizes.

I did look over sizes of the Jap northern bases. Other than a slight adding to the airfield size of Paramushiro, Pillager does not appear to have done much in the way of base construction in this region.

As you probably have seen, I've been launching occasional small 4E bomber raids from Attu against Paramushiro - mainly as nuisance raids. I can continue these raids but will not change their size or composition (maintain same number and types of planes) or the time interval between raids.

Pillager has been sending almost daily recon flights over Attu. I don't see that as a major problem in launching a surprise northern campaign. I will simply not use Attu as a staging point. Kiska is already built up and adjacent islands in the Aleutians to the east of Kiska will work for this. I have a very large base up at Adak - this base has superceded both Anchorage and Dutch Harbor as the primary U.S. base in the North Pacific theatre. All northern HQ's already on Adak, along with quantities of supply, fuel, LBA, and base force LCU's. Adak is already supporting submarine ops.

Ship traffic into the Aleutians has been moving almost entirely due west into the area primarily from Seattle. Also no U.S. warships have been operating in the North Pacific. This appearance can be maintained for the most part with two measures - (1) Movement routes of all U.S. shipping moving into the North Pacific area can be done so they appear to be "coming from Seattle". It may add a extra "dogleg" to my ship movements but if it helps the deception, the better. (2) Limit ship traffic into the North Pacific to transport ships. Keep warships and landing craft out of the North Pacific theatre (or at least far enough to the rear inside this area) until the last possible moment.

I will likely send some U.S. surface ASW into the North Pacific area to deal with Jap subs. ASW operations for me in WitP have been quite successful - Pillager is well aware of my basic doctrine, "see it, whack it, sink it". He hasn't sent Jap subs into Allied controlled sea areas for some time, most of the ones he sent before did not come back once they were detected.

Pago Pago was a nasty lession in not having surprise (though in that situation surprise was impossible) and in not having sufficient force to capture what you are landing on. That's how ten U.S. divisions got marooned. There is quite a bit of material on amphibious ops in the forums and I looked at it - however, direct experience being no substitute for research (though research is useful). I've done very little in the way of amphibious ops in WitP and the mechanics of execution a bit daunting even with all the research.

4.  You need surprise and you need to move quickly.  If your opponent is unprepared, I'd have my invasion armada set to hit the beaches by March 1 (or as soon as I can possibly have my troops loaded and the ships sent to the Bering Sea vicinity.  It's mid-December, so you might can do it if you hurry.

Completely agree. The only question I'd have on a March timeframe is how dependent for success of the operation will be on arriving U.S. division LCU reinforcements between now and March or April '44. Including U.S. Pacific theatre divisions in the game not stuck on Pago Pago and anticipated arrivals of U.S. divisions in the next 120 game turns (this by early 4/44), I will be back up to a total of ten divisions available by March-April '44. Do also have to keep in account I have a considerable number of RCT's on hand - these are no doubt useful as well. An late March, early April invasion date in the north may be more practical if U.S. LCU's entering as reinforcements are needed.

A point either you or Feinder made earlier... a second attack to divert Pillager's attention, preferably shortly before the attack in the north. A second attack could be decisive.

I'm still assessing what I have on hand in Australia and India, and how much of it can be collected for an invasion of the DEI. Though what is increasingly important is launching an expedition into the DEI, however big or small it might be, and at whatever location it hits. My biggest concern is lack of a British carrier force - wherever these guys go into the DEI, they're doing it with no air cover.

Completing the planned ground attack on Portland Roads accomplishes several things to the overall scheme - (1) it clears the Japs out of NE Australia. (2) it frees up Australian and U.S. ground troops for a DEI offensive. (3) I can throw a few bombers at Port Moresby - not as a serious exercise but to put out some more smoke and mirrors.

An Allied presence will have to be kept in NW Australia, also along the Burma-India frontier. These two areas and what needs to be kept there will have some effect on how much LCU strength will be on hand for a DEI operation.

5. For whatever reason, a Jap player who isn't expecting a NoPac attack will still have Paramushiro defended.  It just seems like an "obvious" target.  Don't get bogged down in an opposed landing.  If it appears defended, bypass Paramushiro and look instead to Sikhalin (two big bases there), one or two or three or more of the Kuriles (they are likely undefended and of little use to your opponent, but landing there creates a sense of mayhem for the Japs and gives you a little buffer zone to work with).  Tiny fragments of an RCT should be sufficient to take undefended Kuriles.  In the Mod I play Onnekotan Jima is also a good target as it can be built up to rival Paramushiro.  If not already held, the western Aleutians bases are important too.  If already held, don't start building them yet, but build quickly as soon as D-Day begins.

All western Aleutian bases are in Allied control. Many of them already built up and garrisoned some time ago - Pillager is likely aware of this. Stockpiling of troops, supply, and LCU's in the Aleutians still has to be done carefully but a built-up, garrisoned island in the western Aleutians should not be a big surprise to Pillager as long as things are carried out slowly and carefully. Movement of U.S. ships entering the Aleutians (particularly the western Aleutians) will need to done carefully. Ships cannot remain or be based there, until the final moments before a northern attack begins, they will have to enter the area, unload, and leave.

Movement of TF's in a northern invasion force will likely have all landing TF's (regardless of destination) initially moving together as a stack, topped off with CVE's, shore bombardment, and the main Carrier force. At some point (probably near Paramushiro), the various invasion TF's will disperse from the stack to complete final approach to their destinations. Though Pillager has seen me perform this maneuver - both Pago Pago landing operations, I also use it with submarine patrol TF's where I'm sending multiple subs together into the same general area.

I would see advantages of this mode of ship movement as obscuring the actual number and composition of ships (the stack formation appearing as a pile of TF's), also making it difficult if not impossible to determine how many target(s) of this force and exactly who is going where until the final approach to their objective(s).

As you probably saw, I have lots of RCT's available.

6. If you are successful, your opponent is in deep do-do.  You'll be able to build big bases (two on Sikhalin, and possbily Onnekotan too).  Your flank and supply line will be protected by big bases in the western Aleutians.  And in short order you'll have big air bases operational just as B-29s become available to the Allies.  Of course, bring engineers and sufficient supplies (500k is my guesstimate) to allow you to get things up and running quickly and then operate until you get supply convoys working.

Agree, and can discuss this further.

I'm working on an inventory of U.S. bomber squadrons/groups already in the game to identify those that upgrade to B-29's. So far, two are based in Australia (Melbourne, both these evacuated from the Philippines and now with B-17D's), a third squadron enroute to Australia now with B-18's, another squadron on Johnston Is, and one or two more still in the U.S. A priority may to collect them in a central location for upgrading as soon as sufficient B-29's appear in the replacement pools and deployment immediately thereafter.

7.  A massive strike like this is going to panic your opponent and he's going to turn all his attention this way.  It will create a sudden vaccuum elsewhere on the map.  Be prepared to take advantage of that vaccuum by invading other places in SoPac, SWPac, etc.  You probably want to adopt the island hopping campaign, avoiding strongly held Jap bases in favor of lightly held bases that can be built up.

Island hopping through Pillager's outer perimeter is going to be difficult, likely even with a diversion and a successful attack in the north. Available U.S. combat LCU's will be in somewhat short supply at least for a time following a northern offensive though reinforcements will mitigate this. The line of major Jap bases forming Pillager's outer perimeter (Wake - Kwajalein - Canton - Pago Pago - Suva - Noumea - Port Moresby) is well-interlocking with few or no good avenues of approach. My best possibilities for island hopping through the outer perimeter would be the Marshalls (if not heavily defended) or Solomons (Pillager appears to be considering this the "rear area" with Noumea and Port Moresby preventing any serious approach).

Island hopping through the eastern DEI and adjacent area could be useful as well. This covers what you mentioned in (8) below and can also isolate Jap positions in Darwin and NW Australia (leaving 30+ Jap LCU's high and dry).

8. Creating noise elsewhere just PRIOR to your NoPac invasion should also throw the Japs off balance and add to the sense of mayhem.  The Brits and Aussies should be prepared to engage in separate or combined invasions that will be a threat to the Japs.  The DEI (Timor, Java, Sumatra) are obvious targets.  The sudden vaccum effect created by the Sikhalin invasion may benefit you down here.  If things get to hot for the main invasion, you may also want to have a separate smaller force set to hit somewhere else - Ambon?  Ceram?  Some lightly defended but buildable western New Guinea base?

9.  Remember to have the Chinese striking to just before all the (*#(@#$& hits the fan to further rattle your opponent.

China is pretty bad news. Chinese LCU's are badly run down, no offensive capability or the supply to support them. The best it appears I can do in China is to defend - keep the Japanese army in China tied down in China. Not much here to help the big picture.

10. I am not familiar with the particulars of your game, so reject all or parts of my plan if you know there are problems with it.  But the point is you should be developing a massive, well-coordinated campaigns that will throw the enemy into confusion and allow you to get big, mutually supporting bases within range of key Japanese targets (Home Islands or the big DEI oil/resource centers).

Keep in touch. If you have any questions or to see a map of something, holler.

11. In the meantime, keep up appearances at Pago Pago. If you aren't able to get the upper hand before then, the vaccuum effect of Sikhalin invasion ought to allow you to take control here and salvage the situation.  You DON'T want to lose ten divisions that are here.

As far as Pago Pago goes, I'm planning whatever ops are needed to get an operational airfield on Pago Pago. Getting U.S. LBA flying out of Pago Pago would be give the Japanese a little bit of a problem, also it convincingly keeps up appearances.

I plan on keeping the main U.S. carrier force in the South Pacific (operating out of Penhryn) until the last possible moment before a northern offensive (I'm anticipating U.S. carriers to be the final component arriving in the Aleutians immediately before the offensive begins). Value of keeping U.S. carriers here is (1) they're needed to provide air cover to transports going to Pago Pago and (2) they keep Pillager's attention rivetted down there, along with the KB.

12. Don't risk a major carrier defeat before the invasion. You need (and will have) a huge number of carriers by March 1944. You'll really be able to go anywhere you want at least one time (and more than once if you win any ensuing carrier battles).

 

My carrier doctrine throughout this match has been to engage in carrier vs carrier action only in cases where it is to the U.S. advantage. Hasn't happened yet but it will. I've been patient (three years in real time) and intend to continue doing so. I've been watching for good opportunities to strike or a mistake on Pillager's part - when it happens, then we hit. Carriers are like the queen in a chess game, you have to use it, but you only have one.

13.  If you have carrier superiority or parity, if Sikhalin is essentially undefended or very lightly defended, and if you bring the kitchen sink including supplies, you will win.  Your opponent cannot stop you, and thirty days later you'll have two big air bases operational and flying P-38s, Corsairs, B-24s, and B-29s.  Your opponent will be doing the shivering.  While that's going on right at his doorstep, all other areas suddenly become a backwater (at least until your opponent regains his equilibrium) so that you should be able to advance rather rapidly.  Don't waste your time advancing step-by-step on the far reaches of the Jap perimter.  Ignore his perimeter and head toward his underbelly, leaving his perimater to become a useless frontier that withers away from irrelevance.

I would estimate carrier parity as of now, especially as no major U.S. or Japanese carriers have been sunk to date. All Allied losses have been CVE's and the British.

14.  Good luck!

Thanks.

[Canoerebel]

Sounds like you have a good handle on things.
 
It also sounds like you think Sikhalin's bases are undefended or lightly defended?  If that's the case, you might want to REALLY do something radical that would have an even higher chance of success:
 
1.  Ordinarily, winter invasions against defended positions in the Arctic are impossible because disruption is nearly 100%.  IE, you send in a division against a Naval Guard unit, but your division takes 95% disruption and can't take the position.   However, if the base is unguarded or essentially unguarded (meaning you have overwhelming force against light opposition), you can take the base and, in turn, you opponent CAN'T COUNTERATTACK because of the same disruption problems.   This is what I did in my game with John III.  With just a scattering of troops, I managed to take the Sikahlin bases, Onnekotan, and some Kuriles.  He tried to counterinvade Onnekotan, which was very lightly defended, but his attack failed miserably due to winter conditions. 
 
2.  So, if you were to TAKE the Sikhalin bases in, say, January or early February, your opponent couldn't counterattack until March 1 (or if he did you'd perish from laughing at the magnitude of his blunder).  So you'd get FREE TIME to consolidate your position, begin building forts and airfield, and organize things for the future.
 
3.  IF the Sikhalin bases are open or lightly defended, you might cobble together something that could take it and hold it until you bring in the reinforcements.  A division or two and a few RCTs might be enough, but the more you could bring on short notice the better.
 
4.  The advantage to moving so quickly is that you increase the likelihood that your opponent doesn't realize what's going on, and so isn't reinforcing.  Right now he might be chuckling over Pago Pago and correctly reading the lay of the land to indicate that there's no threat to Sikhalin.  But if you move quickly, you might catch him totally flat-footed at a time (winter) he doesn't think an invasion is really possible.  Speed could be everything, as Stonewall Jackson would say.
 
5.  I'm a Bulldog, you're a Gator, so I think it's appropriate that I'm giving YOU advice.  BradfordKay will back me up on this.  Gators eat boogers!

[DW]

Why do you consider the LCUs on Upolu "stuck" there?

You don't need to control the base to lift troops off of the atoll.

I've lifted troops off and unfriendly beach (Truk) in a game against the AAR, Canoerebel did it when his invasion of Hokkaido didn't work out as planned and I've seen it done in plenty of other AARs.

In my game against the AAR I mentioned above, I was experimenting with attacking a well defended atoll and ran into much the same scenario that you've encountered, with the LCUs decimated by shock attacks on landing. When it was clear they couldn't take the base any time soon, I pulled two divisions off, sent them down to Brisbane to rebuild. While they were rebuilding I kept Truk isolated and bombed/bombarded/shelled the piss out of it. When the LCUs had recovered sufficiently, I sent them back to Truk and took the base.

You're strong enough in the area where you should be able to gain local air superiority, especially once you get the airfields on Savaii up and running.

If you're wary about sending AP-AK to the beaches at Upolu, although once you've gained local air superiority there's no real reason for you to be so, then spawn some barges at Pago Pago. Send them over to Upolu, lift off troops, unload them at Pago Pago and keep repeating until all the troops you want removed are off the atoll. Then, from Pago Pago you can load them onto AP/AK and send them somewhere to rebuild.

I know you're interested in keeping the area around Pago Pago active to draw your opponents interest and resources, but I think you can maintain your subterfuge without having a bunch of divisions stranded on Upolu.

Get 'em out of there.

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 12/11/43

North Pacific: Jap recon flight over Attu Is. Otherwise quiet.


Central Pacific: U.S. subs near Kwajalein, Canton Is area continue reporting no detected Jap air patrols. Same level of Jap air patrol activity and plane composition reported by U.S. subs off Japanese home islands. No reported contacts between U.S. subs and Japanese surface ships or ASW in any of the above locations.

5 Japanese ships detected at anchor in Truk base, no report of ships at Kwajalein.
215 ships detected in port at Tokyo.

F-5A recon over Canton Is reporting 23 aircraft, 15 Jap LCU's.


Pago Pago, Day 86 of the Fiasco: Weather forecast for Pago Pago area is continued overcast.

U.S. Carrier Main Force arrives at Penryhn Is - replenishing and replacing a small number of destroyed F6F's. Otherwise, carrier forces fully operational beyond some ships needing refit.

KB remains SE of Wallis Is, detected moving on NW heading.

Japanese surface TF enters Pago Pago base - attacks remaining U.S. transports in Pago Pago, also bombards Pago Pago base. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Pago Pago at 96,113

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato
BB Mutsu
CL Kuma, Shell hits 1
CL Tama
DD Shigure
DD Murasame
DD Wakaba
DD Ariake

Allied Ships
TK Gulfbreeze, Shell hits 19, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
AK Joseph K. Toole, Shell hits 37, and is sunk
AK Peter V. Daniel, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Pago Pago at 96,113

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato
BB Mutsu
CL Kuma
CL Tama
DD Shigure
DD Murasame
DD Wakaba
DD Ariake

Allied Ships
AK Jefferson Davis, Shell hits 6, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Pago Pago, at 96,113 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

43 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
DD Ariake
DD Wakaba
DD Murasame
DD Shigure
CL Tama
CL Kuma
BB Mutsu, Shell hits 11
BB Nagato

Allied ground losses:
502 casualties reported
Guns lost 18
Vehicles lost 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Pago Pago, at 96,113

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
DD Isonami
DD Shirakumo
DD Shinonome
DD Fubuki
CL Tenryu
CL Kiso
BB Musashi
BB Yamato

Allied ground losses:
708 casualties reported
Guns lost 17
Vehicles lost 5

Runway hits 1
Port hits 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current status of Pago Pago base - runway damage 99, airfield service damage 76, port damage 2.
Current status of Savaii base - runway damage 99, airfield service damage 100, port damage 9.

Jap recon flight over Pago Pago. Jap LBA strike base facilities on Pago Pago and Savaii, also U.S. LCU's on Upolu. Also Jap LBA naval attack strike on transports leaving Pago Pago. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Pago Pago , at 96,113

Japanese aircraft
Ki-46-III Dinah x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-46-III Dinah: 1 damaged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Pago Pago , at 96,113 (this attack appears to have a little help from the KB)

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 10
A6M5 Zeke x 77
D4Y Judy x 192
A6M3a Zero x 5
B6N2 Jill x 251

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 9 destroyed, 56 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 7 destroyed, 28 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F Hellcat: 16 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 8 destroyed
P-47C Thunderbolt: 7 destroyed
PBM Mariner: 2 destroyed

Allied ground losses:
332 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

Airbase hits 16
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 294

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
9 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
28 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
21 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
25 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
21 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
15 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
23 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
15 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
26 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
21 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
25 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
21 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
16 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
11 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
17 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
13 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
12 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
11 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
11 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
7 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
23 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
16 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
16 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
9 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet
9 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 8000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Pago Pago , at 96,113

Japanese aircraft
A6M3 Zero x 11
A6M5 Zeke x 101
N1K1-J George x 3
J1N1-S Irving x 11
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 25
Ki-45 KAIb Nick x 35
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 14
Ki-49 Helen x 44
Ki-48-II Lily x 64

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3 Zero: 4 damaged
A6M5 Zeke: 11 damaged
N1K1-J George: 3 damaged
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 2 damaged
Ki-45 KAIb Nick: 3 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 16 damaged
Ki-48-II Lily: 1 destroyed, 12 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F Hellcat: 9 destroyed

Allied ground losses:
187 casualties reported
Vehicles lost 1

Airbase hits 13
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 124

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
6 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
6 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
17 x Ki-45 KAIb Nick bombing at 2000 feet
6 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
8 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
4 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
6 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
5 x A6M3 Zero bombing at 2000 feet
4 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x N1K1-J George bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
9 x Ki-45 KAIb Nick bombing at 2000 feet
2 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M3 Zero bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
6 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
4 x Ki-45 KAIb Nick bombing at 2000 feet
4 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M3 Zero bombing at 2000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-45 KAIb Nick bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
2 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
2 x Ki-45 KAIb Nick bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
2 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet
3 x Ki-48-II Lily bombing at 11000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Savaii , at 95,112

Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 27
B6N2 Jill x 62

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 2 damaged

Allied ground losses:
25 casualties reported

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 50

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
18 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
18 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
6 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
7 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
6 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet
3 x D4Y Judy bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 37th US Division, at 95,113 (Upolu)

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 14
G4M2 Betty x 15
P1Y Frances x 74
G5N Liz x 19

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
370 casualties reported
Guns lost 12
Vehicles lost 4

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
4 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
4 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
11 x G5N Liz bombing at 10000 feet
11 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
8 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
5 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
6 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
8 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
6 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
8 x G5N Liz bombing at 10000 feet
3 x A6M5 Zeke bombing at 2000 feet
7 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
7 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
4 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
6 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet
3 x P1Y Frances bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 37th US Division, at 95,113

Japanese aircraft
G4M2 Betty x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
42 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet
9 x G4M2 Betty bombing at 6000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 100,113 (E of Pago Pago)

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 18

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AK Joseph Simon, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage (later sunk)
AK John S. Casement, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage (later sunk)
AK Leonidas Merritt, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
2 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
1 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


One final try. U.S. ground forces launch attack on Upolu (probably shouldn't have even bothered). At this point, U.S. troops on Upolu are taking the defensive. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Upolu

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 62140 troops, 279 guns, 34 vehicles, Assault Value = 1389
1st Cavalry, Americal, 32nd, 37th & 1st Marine Divisions, HQ I Amphibious Corps

Defending force 45344 troops, 247 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 584
41st, 42nd, 51st, 53rd & 61st Naval Gd; Sasebo 7 SNLF, 51 Independent Mixed Brigade (-), 9 & 11 Independent Mixed Rgts,
Arshan Garrison Rgt, 7 Field Artillery Brigade, 140 IJN Base Force, 127 IJNAF Base Force (-), 5 AF Construction Bn (-),
9 AF Construction Bn, 24 Aviation Unit, 2 Aviation Rgt, 10 Special Base Force (-)

Allied max assault: 858 - adjusted assault: 531
Japanese max defense: 564 - adjusted defense: 2277
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 9)

Japanese ground losses:
553 casualties reported
Guns lost 21

Allied ground losses:
1709 casualties reported
Guns lost 38
Vehicles lost 7

[wneumann]

Summary of Operations 12/11/43 - continued

South Pacific: SS Raton now on patrol in Noumea base hex. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack at Noumea - 66,117

Japanese Ships
MSW W.25, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage (confirmed sunk)

Allied Ships
SS Raton

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Australia: USAAF bombers strike Daly Waters airfield. AAR follows.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Daly Waters , at 35,90

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 69
B-26B Marauder x 32

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed, 35 damaged
B-26B Marauder: 2 destroyed, 15 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
352 casualties reported
Guns lost 17

Airbase hits 6
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 74

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
9 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
6 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
4 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
2 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
1 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
2 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
3 x B-26B Marauder bombing at 10000 feet
2 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet
2 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 10000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detected status of Jap base in Daly Waters - airfield damage 95, 26 Jap LCU's.
Hudson I recon over Darwin reports fighters on CAP, 2 Jap TF's (+1 from last report), 680 aircraft (274 fighters, 29 bombers), 8 Jap LCU's.

Catalina I recon over Port Moresby reports N1K fighters on CAP, 7 Jap LCU's.


India/Burma: No reported air or ground combat.

F-5C recon over Rangoon reports 1 Jap TF (+1 from last report), 1 ship in port, 689 aircraft (308 fighters, 56 bombers), 9 Jap LCU's, heavy industry 54(139).


China: Jap recon flights over Tuyun, Chungking. AAR's of latest Jap air strikes in China follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 3rd Chinese Corps, at 46,27 (Kungchang - northern China)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 13

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 5 damaged

Allied ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on 95th Chinese Corps, at 44,31 (N of Chungking)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 22

No Japanese losses

Allied ground losses:
20 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
22 x Ki-43-IIa Oscar bombing at 2000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Japanese ground forces launch attack at Tuyun, continue ground bombardment near Chungking. AAR's follow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Tuyun

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 311777 troops, 1199 guns, 398 vehicles, Assault Value = 6026
3rd, 6th, 13th, 22nd, 29th, 34th, 36th, 40th, 41st, 60th, 65th, 104th, 110th & 116th Infantry Divisions; 3rd Tank Division;
1 Independent Brigade; 1 Yobi Ebi Rgt; 2, 8, 19, 20,& 27 Engineer Rgts; 2 Mountain Gun Rgt, 2 RF Gun Bn, 6 & 15 FA Rgts,
13 & 15 Tank Rgts, HQ 23rd Army

Defending force 40579 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1103
37th, 46th, 60th, 62nd, 64th, 74th, 79th & 99th Chinese Corps; 71st Chinese Division;
27th Chinese Guerilla Corps; HQ 1st, 2nd, 16th & 20th Group Armies

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 5
Japanese max assault: 4827 - adjusted assault: 4432
Allied max defense: 876 - adjusted defense: 3563
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 5)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Japanese ground losses:
5171 casualties reported
Guns lost 36
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
1803 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 42,33 (SE of Chungking)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 868 troops, 36 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 959
32nd & 47th Infantry Divisions, 1 Mortar Bn
Defending force 35014 troops, 124 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 984
21st, 23rd, 63rd, 75th, 86th & 96th Chinese Corps

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[wneumann]

DW,

The problem is... except for when I have the U.S. Carrier Main Force in the area, the Japanese have complete run of the skies over Pago Pago.

Even with U.S. carriers in the area, the carriers have way too many tasks to take on at once - (1) fighter CAP to protect themselves, (2) fighter CAP to protect transports, (3) taking on the KB (yes, it's in the area), (4) naval strikes against Jap surface combat and/or bombardment TF's going after transports and/or troops ashore, (5) attack the large Jap airbase on Upolu (this base supported by other Jap LBA on Wallis Is and elsewhere). Carriers can perform two, possibly three, of these tasks on a given sortie and not all of them at once.

There is absolutely no operational U.S. LBA on Pago Pago (the key word being operational). Won't be until I can get Pago Pago airfield up, which actually involves bringing a little bit of stuff in though not massive reinforcements. If I can get Pago Pago airbase operational and successfully deal with Jap LBA now flying from Upolu (meaning taking out the base or at least the airfield), then and only then I can think about doing anything at all with troops stuck on the islands.

Evacuating LCU elements from any of the three islands is suicidal under the current situation. Assuming transports got there in one piece (far from a sure bet), most if not all of them would be sunk either in the process of loading or while attempting to leave (along with the cargo loaded on them).

If I was gonna lose ten divisions (and I have no plans to), I'd rather they be on-shore fighting back and killing Japs instead of passively drowning as their ship goes down.

Thusly, they are stuck. Kinda like Gilligan's Island with 62,000 men and no Ginger or Mary Ann. (that sucks)

I do have 101K supply on Upolu (or at least the display says). Somebody must be sneaking a patrol through the Jap lines each night to raid the Sake dumps. Gotta be the Marines.

[DW]

I've been following your AAR closely enough to understand your predicament.

I just wanted to make certain that you're aware that you can lift LCUs off of a contested beach.

When Canoerebel was in a tough spot after his invasion of Hokkaido failed, a poster in his AAR was advising that one couldn't pick up LCUs if one didn't control the hex.

I was concerned that you may also share that view, which is, of course, incorrect.

Once you get your base force to Pago Pago and your LBA operational, you'll soon be able to wrestle control of the air and surrounding seas from your opponent. From all the AARs I've read, I've absolutely no doubt of that.

Once you manage that, extracting your LCUs from Upolu should be a breeze.

If you can keep your opponent interested in fighting in the area, Pago Pago isn't really a bad place to start attriting his air power and getting it whittled down for the invasions you're considering for the future.

I like your plan to get your CVs right back into the fight once they replenish at Penryhn.

As Canoerebel noted, you're getting to be the big dog on the block. While there's always attendant risk, getting your opponent to commit his air power is the first step in destroying it.
I think the sort of CV drubbing at the hands of KB is, at this point in the game unlikely. So, I think it wise to get your carriers out there and, within reason, dare him to attack you.

Good Luck.