Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

This is the current screenshot of the action in Malaya--Sumatra on the 26th. Dan's Invasion Force is plodding slowly southwards...

[John 3rd]

I have officially christened the Japanese assault on Rarotonga as Operation Phantom Wind.  On the 26th, the anchors lift from the sediment of Suva's Harbor.  This is probably the last offensive of the war for Japan.  The overall operation is entrusted to Rear-Adm Nobutani who flies his flag on the CV Unryu.  The Japanese Task Forces are arranged in the following manner:
 
Adm Nobutani's Task Force is comprised of:                  Total Aircraft--127
CV Unryu
CVLs Chitose and Zuiho
CA  Tone
CL  Jintsu
5 DD
 
Adm Kakuta's Task Force is comprised of:                    Total Aircraft--115
CVEs Taiyo, Chuyo, Shinyo, and Kaiyo
CL  Noshiro and Abukuma
5 DD
 
Adm Owato's PUNY Strike Force
CL  Oi and Kitakami
2 DD
 
The Rarotonga Invasion Force has about 25 AP/AK and 6-10 small escorts (PC/MSW).  I have yet to chose the Admiral to command this TF.  Anyone have any suggestions?
 

[JeffroK]

is St Jude available??

[John 3rd]

St. Jude?  Does that leader come from Hokkaido or Kyushu???
 

[John 3rd]

I chose to fallback on the BEST the Japanese have for leadership!  Rr-Adm Tanaka Raizo is airlifted from his recent Singapore leadership to take the help of the Rarotonga Invasion Force.  Within this command appointment the Japanese chose to use Rr-Adm Fujita instead of Nobutani.
 
The anchors of 60 Japanese ships rise from the mud of the harbor on March 27, 1944.  They will procedd to Tonga to pick-up up two more small Engineering Battalions as well an Aviation Regiment.  Total numbers of Japanese commited to the attack is about 47,000.
 

[John 3rd]

March 27, 1944
Combat Report
 
Malaya
The Allies chose to land at Georgetown, Malaya.  As stated earlier, the stronger move would have been to land at Malacca and blast the Japanese blocking force there and then drive straight to Singapore. 

This said, Dan elects to land at a new location.  I don't know why but he does.  Georgetown has Forts at 5/58 and an AS rating of 338.  Most of the defence is built around a full strength Brigade.  I order another Brigade one hex up from the town south of it.  A large Naval Guard unit and full-strength Engineering Regiment also move towards Georgetown from Alor Star.  These additions--which should arrive within 1-2 days--will double the strength of the garrision.

Ten units are seen in the assaulting waves.  I noticed at least 4 units that had landed at Malacca in this attack.  These are now fragments hitting Georgetown. 

Rarotonga
A good pair of strikes hit this base in anticipation of the impending landing.  A large strike of 68 Betty destroy a PBY, inflict 94 Cas, and hit the AF 36 times.  The field is now at 48% damage.  A second strike of 28 Betty kill 36 men and 2 guns of the 52nd.

Darwin
Things are now getting a little squirrely at Darwin!  I am down to an Aviation Regiment and small Base Force.  The fighters that were defending the port are pulled on the 26th so the Allied Liberators strike at AP/AK.  My last troops will be lifted off of Australia on the 28th or 29th.

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I chose to fallback on the BEST the Japanese have for leadership!  Rr-Adm Tanaka Raizo is airlifted from his recent Singapore leadership to take the help of the Rarotonga Invasion Force.  Within this command appointment the Japanese chose to use Rr-Adm Fujita instead of Nobutani.

At least with Tanaka you know you won't get a timid effort. I would love to see Tanaka and Halsey in a fight sometime. I suspect that even if every ship on both sides was sunk the guys in the lifeboats would still be flailing at each other with oars and bits of wreckage.

[John 3rd]

Thanks for hoping on the Thread Cuttlefish!  Your comment elicited quite a laugh from me...
 
I can use all the laughter I can get.  [:D][>:][:D]

[John 3rd]

Life being what life is at the moment has prevented me from doing a formal update of the campaign. We have reached April 1, 1944 and the Japanese position has totally collapsed in Malaya-Indochina. I have attached a screenshot for viewing.

My sole hope is to conduct a reasonable evacuation immediately from Saigon. Troops pulled from there will be moved to Java for reconstruction. I've already lifted (as of today--April 1st) the shattered remains of two Infantry Divisions for transfer to Batavia.

I hope to hold at Singapore for a while yet. The APs that just finished the Australia evacuation at headed for Singapore. They have a troop lift capability of about 100,000 AP.

I won't be able to do a thorough update today but will prepare a synopsis on the last 4 turns and April Economy/VP Report to be posted on Monday.

[John 3rd]

[font="times new roman"]Combat Report[/font]
[font="times new roman"]March 28-31, 1944[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I am going to divide this four-day report by Theatres of Operation.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]North Pacific[/font]
[font="times new roman"]No activity of consequence.  The Americans continue to bomb my remaining Aleutian bases and Paramushiro Jima everyday.  I cannot run small supply convoys in now so these troops are on their own.  The good news here is that there are few troops on the Aleutian bases and a reasonably strong pair of garrisions in the Kuriles (Paramushuiro Jima and the base due north of Hokkaido).[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Central Pacific[/font]
[font="times new roman"]I expect the Americans to make a move into this are sometime soon.  This would be an invasion that is long overdue in fact.  Wake and the Marianas would be the most logical place for a landing.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Truk[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A Japanese CV Task Force has arrived at this base.  Four CV and 2 CVL with a meager escort of 6 DD arrive here on March 31st.  These ships will be joined in about a week by 2 CA, 1 CL, and 6 DD that have completed repairs at Nagasaki.  I will use this CV TF to raid American supply lines.  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]South Pacific[/font]
[font="times new roman"]There has been no significant Allied activity here whatsoever.  New Caledonia, Guadalcanal, Port Moresby, and Rabual are still held by decent forces with reasonable supplies that will contest any Allied landing.  My aerial contingent is concentrated at Suva, Tonga, and the Society Islands for Operation Phantom Wind.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Operation Phantom Wind[/font]
[font="times new roman"]On March 31st the Invasion Force reaches Tonga and takes on its final landing disposition.  Nearly 40,000 troops and 12,000 supply make-up the assault.  They consist of an Inf Div, 2 Naval Guard units, an Aviation Regiment, and 2 small Construction Battalions.  The troops are at 70% prep for the landing.  The landing is now scheduled for April 7th.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]FINAL Naval dispositions are:[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Rarotonga Close Escort Force           3 CL and 2 DD[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV TF 1                      1 CV, 2 CVL, 1 CA, 5 DD[/font]
[font="times new roman"]                                    F          DB       TB[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV       Unryu             3          54        9[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVL    Zuiho               9          24[/font]
[font="times new roman"]            Chitose            9                      19[/font]
[font="times new roman"]                                    21        78        28[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV TF 2                      4 CVE, 1 CL, 5 DD[/font]
[font="times new roman"]                                    F          DB       TB[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE    Taiyo               27[/font]
[font="times new roman"]            Chuyo             27[/font]
[font="times new roman"]            Shinyo                         27        9[/font]
[font="times new roman"]            Kaiyo                           9          16[/font]
[font="times new roman"]                                    54        36        25[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Total Complement      75F, 114 DB, 53 TB[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I have shuffled most of my attack planes to the CV/CVL due to their higher sortie capacity and placed the majority of my Fighters on the CVE so it doesn’t cost them their limited number of sorties.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]This isn’t much of a force but it will have to do…[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I have been flying an average of 100 out of 145 Betty Bombers against Rarotonga everyday.  A portion of my planes have been hitting the AF and causing an average of 50-80 Casualties each day as well as slowly building up the damage to the field itself.  As of the 31st the AF was at 70% damage.  Another major element of bombers has been on land attack and it has been averaging 80-125 Casualties, a gun or two, and a vehicle or two every day.  They always attack the 52nd Base Force.  I have to believe that this is the strongest unit (of the 3 there) present.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Plan of Operations                  Invasion Date set for April 7, 1944[/font]
[font="times new roman"]D-3      All Rarotonga Betty will shift to land attack and work to disrupt the defense.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]D-2      The same[/font]
[font="times new roman"]D-1      The Attack Planes on the Unryu, Chitose, and Zuiho will add their weight to the attack.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]D-Day  We’ll see if all this planning amounts to anything!  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Appraisal[/font]
[font="times new roman"]This attack really won’t matter very much but if it succeeds then I will capture about 8,000 Allied troops and draw Dan’s attention to an unimportant theatre.  He will have no idea that I plan to immediately life these troops off the island and re-deploy them towards the center of operations.  If the attack fails then I will still do the same.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]DEI[/font]
[font="times new roman"]American SS are appearing in greater numbers throughout the region.  I am moving more ASW TF into the area to try and counter this.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]A convoy departs Jesselton on March 29th carrying 75,000 Oil and 25,000 Resources.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Another smaller convoy departed Balikpapan with small amounts of oil and resources for Manila, Cebu, and Davao.  I might run some oil into Singapore as well to help keep production their for whatever time the base has left.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I haven’t divided the DEI up by regions since April of 1942!  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Eastern DEI[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Katherine, Australia [/font]
[font="times new roman"]This base falls on the 29th.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]My withdrawal from Darwin, Australia is completed on March 29th.  At the end of the evacuation Dan’s 4EB were hitting AP and AK pretty hard.  I’ve lost a few ships and had about a dozen seriously damaged.  My troops are digging in throughout Timor, Amboina, Kendari, and Makassar.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Central DEI[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Java will receive all of the ground units I evacuate from Indochina.  They will be able to reconstitute themselves and build-up the defense of this vital island.  I have a significant aerial presense here as well.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Western DEI[/font]
[font="times new roman"]I need to augment the troops in Northern Borneo and Palembang.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Malaya[/font]
[font="times new roman"]The battle for Malaya is HUGE!  At the northern edge is the Allied landing and capture of Georgetown, in the middle is the Japanese containing the previous Allied landing at Malacca, and in the south is where the Japanese are finishing off the Indian/Chinese troops landed at Johore Bharu.  What a mess…[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Georgetown[/font]
[font="times new roman"]The Allies begin landing at Georgetown on the 27th and the base falls on the 30th.  The Landing included 6 Infantry Divisions (mostly Chinese), 4 American Armor units, an Engineering unit, and large Base Force.  The 2 Japanese Brigades hold for two days worth of attacks but finally are driven from the hex on 30th.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]They SHOULD withdraw southwards but instead choose the worst possible choice of moving east to Alor Star.  What a terrible move by the AI!  I order them to withdraw down the eastern side of Malaya towards Kuantan but stand a real chance of losing them due to the slowly movement along that side of the peninsula.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Malacca[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Japanese forces continue to contain the Allied troops here.  IF Dan moves south from Georgetown then these troops will be freed up pretty quickly.  I MUST get troops up here from Johore Bharu ASAP.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Johore Bharu[/font]
[font="times new roman"]I attack the two Infantry Divisions here with mass number of bombers on the 28th--30th.  Over 200 bombers attack while protected by 150 Fighters.  There is an average of 10 P-38 flying CAP here from Bankha.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]On the 30th I launch a Deliberate Attack that yields a 76-1 result with the 29th Regional Army Division of China surrendering (4,000 POW).  The 31st sees a 246-1 result with NO SURRENDER from the Indian troops there.  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Thinking[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Once I capture these troops at Johore Bharu this will free up nearly 1,000 Assault Points of troops that SHOULD enable me to hold Malacca against the combined Allied Forces in Malaya.  If I can link-up with my main force at Malacca then I will be gin a measured evacuation of my most damaged ground forces.  These troops will then re-deploy to Java for R&R.  [/font]
[font="times new roman"]  [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I have over 200 fighters flying out of Singapore with another 100+ at Palembang so they SHOULD be able to protect shipping moving back and forth through Singapore.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Indochina[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Haiphong[/font]
[font="times new roman"]The Japanese troops trapped here finally end their resistance on March 31st.  I lose about 39,000 soldiers in the final three days.  This is my first major troop loss of the war.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]The good news is that I pulled decent-sized fragments out of Haiphong over the last two weeks.  I manage to grab about 12,000 troops from their perimeter using barges and transfer them to Samah.  These soldiers will be redeployed to Java as well.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Cam Rahn Bay[/font]
[font="times new roman"]The surrender of the Haiphong garrision means that EIGHTEEN enemy units will be freed up to attack southern Indochina.  CRB sits with Forts at 7 and an Assault Strength of 750.  It will not hold against what is now available for Dan.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Saigon[/font]
[font="times new roman"]I still control the air over Saigon with nearly 150 Fighters.  The evacuation begins on the 31st with the battered remains of two Infantry Divisions being loaded for Java.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Bangkok Area[/font]
[font="times new roman"]I am withdrawing from Pisanluke, Thailand towards Bangkok.  There are 4 units holding the Allied column (Jap—Inf Div, Inf Brig, Tk Div, and Tk Reg vs. 3 Chinese Inf Div, 2 Ind Brig, a Base Force, and a Tk Reg) blocking hex 29,38 west of Bangkok.  My biggest concern is three Japanese units who are cutoff from the lines due west of Tavoy.  They are withdrawing cross-country and I have a real chance of losing them when I pull back towards Saigon.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Home Islands[/font]
[font="times new roman"]I am trying to figure out how dangerous the Allied bomber attack is right now on the Home Islands.  Sakhalin’s two bases are at 6 and 7 (650 possible planes) and Iwo Jima is at Lvl-5 (another 250).  So far my Fighter defense has been pretty decent unless he hit a base where I have little protection.  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Sendai[/font]
[font="times new roman"]This base is attacked from Sakhalin on the 29th.  I put up 88 Fighters to fight 48 P-38 124 4EB.  I lose 22 Fighters (12 pilots) and 43 Resources in exchange for 14 P-38 and 9 4EB with another 48 4EB damaged.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tokyo[/font]
[font="times new roman"]On the 30th, the Americans at Iwo Jima attack Tokyo for the first time.  The Japanese put up 75 Naval Fighters (George and Zekes) against 126 4EB.  The Navy Fighters do pretty well.  I lose 4 Fighters in exchange for 14 4EB w/66 damaged!  Only 31 Liberators drop their bombs over Tokyo Bay.  The bombers hit 8 ships in the port and manage to sink an Ro-SS that was being repaired there.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]End-of-the-Month[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Dan gets hit with his second 2,600 PP penalty in a row for not withdrawing a CV and 2 DD.  I cannot imagine that he has very many PP available for unit transfers.  This could be very important when it comes to him trying to attack my eastern DEI positions from NW Australia.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]

[John 3rd]

[font="times new roman"]April 1, 1944 [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Victory Points and Economic Summary[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Victory Points:[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Score[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Japan   52,108  (Up 744 Points)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Allies    43,018  (Up 4,420 Points)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]The only good thing to say about the month is that I still managed to GAIN victory points.  I don’t know about other players but for the Japanese to have a month in 1944 where they raise their victory points seems a small victory to me.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Main features of the month were the final withdrawal from NW Australia, the furious battle over Malaya and Sumatra, and the collapse of the Japanese position in Indochina.  Other then fight a delaying action, there is little I can do other then evacuate with as many troops as I can to various positions in the DEI.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ships Sunk[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Japan   802—8,137 VP (up 466)—I lost 61 ships during March.  For the most part, the losses remain in the area of support shipping.  These were my losses:  21 AK, 14 AP, 9 MSW, 4 PC, 1 AE, 1 TK, 9 DD, CA Suzuya and 1 SS.  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Major Japanese Vessels Sunk to Date---CV Junyo, Hiyo, Hiryu, and Katsuragi, BB Fuso, Yamashiro, Mutsu, Nagato, and Musashi, BC Kirishima and Haruna, 6 CA , 12 CL, 103 DD, and 40 SS.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Allies    1,206---13,772 VP (up 247)---Dan lost 43 ships for the month of March.  Exact Losses are:  13 AK, 1 AP, 2 MSW, 1 AD, 2 AGP, 13 LCT, 3 DD, 1 DE, 1 PT, and 6 SS.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Major Allied Vessels Sunk---CVs Enterprise, Lexington, Hornet, Wasp and Intrepid, CVL Langley, 5 CVE, BBs Colorado, West Virginia, Idaho, Tennessee, Arizona, Prince of Wales, Alabama, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Mississippi, BC Renown, 15 CA, 8 CL, 74 DD, and 50 SS.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]My ship loss numbers didn’t jibe with my notes for the month so I went with my notes.  This is the first month I have lost more ships then Dan in a long time.  His SS arm has certainly taken on the chin with 50 sunk!  This is a decent total considering that I am just now really getting a decent number of good ASW escorts produced in Japan.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Manchukuo Garrison---9,384---Up 355---(8,000 Needed)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Political Points---1,264[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Units Transferred:  [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Restocking my Political Points for transfer of another unit from Manchuria to elsewhere.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Industrial Report[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Supply              1,919,792[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Fuel                  1,126,291[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Manpower       747 (1,388,570)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Heavy Industry 14,559 (308,760)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Resources        16,281 (1,967,276)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oil                    2,391 (469,470)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]In industrial totals things went fairly well this month.  My fuel increased nearly 200,000, manpower continued to rise, accruing Heavy Industry points have stagnated at 308,000, resources dropped 250 due to Allied bombing, and I repaired another 12 Oil Centers.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Shipyards[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Naval               1,366 (9) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Merchant          981 (3)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Repair              1,470[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Carriers[/i]           All CVs are accelerated.[/i][/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kasagi (234Days)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aso                  (277 Days)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ikoma              (284 Days)   [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ibuki                (239 Days)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Weapons[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Armament        638 (11,248)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Vehicles           179 (17,909)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Armaments are still dropping at a pretty quick rate.  I increased armament production by nearly 70 (another 70 to go) in Manchuria.  Vehicle Production stayed the same but my stockpile increased by nearly 3,000.  Considering the massive amount of rebuilding I have to do with units being evacuated from Malaya—Indochina I am nervous about my totals…[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aircraft[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Engines 2,215[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Assembly         1,800+(370-Rd)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Another good month for the Japanese:  Engines rose 28, Assembly up 26, and Research up 46.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Engine Production[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Mitsubishi         641(59)—Need 676—1,263 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Nakajima         1,205(50)—Need 1,223---1,233 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kawasaki         260---Need 314---154 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aichi                109(11)---Need 98---154 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I didn’t see very much in the realm of repairs for expanding my engines and this concerns me.  There needs to be an increase in Kawasaki engines.  I forgot to do this last month.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Plane Production[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Fighters            Planes/Month (in Pool)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M2              0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M3              0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M3a            0 (171)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oscar               0 (85)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oscar IIa          0 (26)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tojo                 40 (11)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tony                0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Jack                 194 (33)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M5c            31 (230) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M5              318 (112)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oscar III          44 (25)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ki-61 Tony      314 (34)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]N1K1 George  83 (38)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Frank 1a          171-Rd (08/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Frank 1c          54-Rd (12/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M8              15-Rd (06/45)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]My Fighters are still in trouble!  I am simply not producing enough airframes to keep up with the fight.  Naval fighters are reasonably OK because I am producing three main models:  Jacks (expanding—up 10), A6M5 (expanding—up 13), and George (up 8 over last month).  The Army side continues to be the problem.  I am bringing Tojo back online (up 15) and expanding Ki-61 Tony (up 31) while the research into Frank continues to expand at a decent clip.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Bombers[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Betty                0 (203)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Betty 2             40 (56)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Frances            107 (138)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Sally                 0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Helen               122 (85)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Lily                   40 (40)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Nick-a             20 (31)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Nick-b             12 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Val                   0 (370) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kate                 0 (142)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Judy                 98 (40)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Jill                    125 (47)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Grace               2-Rd (6/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Randy              0-Rd (07/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Peggy               104-Rd (8/44)              TWO months early.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Betty 2e           24-Rd (10/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Frances is now in solid production.  I scaled back Betty 2 and am concentrating on Frances/Betty 2E.  Helen doing better and Peggy still expanding in research.  Naval aircraft (DB/TB) are doing OK.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Recon/Float[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Emily    20 (8)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Alf        6 (4)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Pete     0  (100)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Pete A  0  (32)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Rufe     23 (42)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Glen     0 (40)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Dinah   0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Irving-R 24 (85)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Irving-S 23 (11)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Jake     6 (3)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Babs    0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Dinah-3 52 (9)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]C6N Myrt 14 (2)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I estarted to Alf and Jake production.  I CANNOT keep enough Emilys and Dinah in the air!  My Myrts started production in March.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Transports[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tina      8 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Sally     0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Topsy   28 (5)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Mavis-L 0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tabby 0 (21)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Due to heavy losses in Malaya—Sumatra—Indochina, I will be pulling all my transports out of action so I can restore their numbers somewhat.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]

[Q-Ball]

Good update John, keep 'em coming.

Your Oil looks very low, only 400K on the map. Hopefully most of that is in Japan. That could become critical if you can't get ships in/out of Palembang anymore. You are correct in that your Armaments are also too low. You do have a nice reserve of HI points though.

Having more A/C Engines would help as well, though I wouldn't worry as much about the Kawasaki. Once you get the Frank, you won't need the Tony anymore, and I think in Big-B the Kawasaki engine isn't used past the Ki-61c. Expanding Naka would be a much better idea, you need those for the Franks.

The Tony is a better plane than Tojo, but right now illustrates why I invested more in the Tojo: The Naka engines for that can be used on Frank or other models, and those Tojo factories all auto-upgrade to Frank. That allows an instant switch-over from the older IJA fighters. If those 315 Tony factories auto-upgraded, and you had Naka engines, you would be at nearly 500 a month!

Not sure why you're researching the Ki-84c, it's not much better than the a, and you will tie that factory up for 3 months when it could be producing A models. I would rather build the a, and have them auto-upgrade to c when the time comes.

[John 3rd]

Q-Ball,

Nice thoughts on my economic report:
1.  That is a great thought regarding the Frank-C!  I could shift all that research for it over to the initial variant and--perhaps--bring it in a little early.
2.  Oil will be the crisis point with me.  Since I was handicapped by not getting my oil centers fixed at Palembang and Balikpapan until recently I have been behind that 8-Ball from the beginning.  I am; however, pulling about 50,000 oil a week out of Palembang, sending it to Jesselton (to form convoy), and then on the the Home Islands.  I have been sending a convoy a week home with an average of 60-70,000 oil and 40-50,000 resources.
3.  I will also expand the Nagasakis some more to handle the planned shift to Franks.  Wish I had them now...
4. The 308,000 HI reserve is nice but as my Retired Economicsa Minister would say---that will only carry me for a month!

Thanks for the ideas.

Does anyone have any idea how much that 2,600 political point hit hurts Dan? He has taken that two months in a row.

I am trying to keep the AAR going but life is not too fun and it has been difficult for Dan and I to get regular turns in.

[FOW]

Re Dan's PP

With FOW on, the notification of political points losses is "fogged" just like any other intel. The loss may never have happened or it could be mis-reported/exagerated.

Dan could well have chosen not to (or could not) return a CV+2DD. Either way his PP total cannot be accurately gauged from Intel.

[ny59giants]

4. The 308,000 HI reserve is nice but as my Retired Economics Minister would say---that will only carry me for a month!

Thanks for the ideas.

Does anyone have any idea how much that 2,600 political point hit hurts Dan? He has taken that two months in a row.

Would I say something like that?? [;)]

The large hit on his PP may hurt somewhat. I don't know how closely you two are following the need to change commands once they are spend to change from a restricted command to non-restricted. That point total is just over one American division worth.

[JeffroK]

Probably by this time all combat units arriving are already allocated to Active Commands.
 
Doesnt it cost PP to upgrade squadrons?
 
(PS Pet hate in WITP, Dan should have received a PP bonus for capturing, say Sakhalin, Iwo Jima and any bases in Malaya/Java.)

[John 3rd]

I got this note from Damian a couple of days ago and thought the forum might like reading his advice.  He said it would be fine to place in the AAR:
 
Hey John,
just thought I'd check in and see how things were going ...

Isn't it getting to the point where it is pointless repairing any Oil Ctrs? I see you are also down to a months supply of Oil.

I'm sure that you are NOT at the break point yet, but there will become a point where you will have to start riding the HI down, and thereby need to shut off some more production (engines/merchies) or conserving your Oil/Res by shutting off some HI. I guess only you can make the decision when you will do this. It is a pity we didn't have some more time to build up those reserves...

I'm still optimistic, & believe if you are conservative with what you have, slowly reduce your needs over time and can keep bringing in oil for a few more months, you can keep in the fight well into '45.

Rebuilding your troops is going to be an expensive proposition, as you know it is a *6 multiplier for both Arm/Veh ... YES it is very important, but how long can you sustain using & rebuilding it? I think that this will have to be the first line of reductions after the Merchant build is reduced... &  Arm points are much more important IMO than Veh. 17K must be almost good enough to rebuild some of those units ... The last unit that needs Veh for production is the 2nd Tank Div (10K) -- and I think you should have that by now, but then I can't see how badly beaten your units are on the ground... but an increase in 3k, and the fact the game engine really takes a long time to reinforce a unit, makes me think that you don;t need all that much ... Tracker can tell you more.

...much later down the track ...

There is about 9000 HI in Japan and 1500 Oil produced a day there, so to keep Japan producing, you need to import at least 7500/day. When it comes down to the end-game, at least this self-sustained 1500 HI = 1500 Oil with allow you to build enough of your engines and planes... but this is probably after the loss of Palembang & DEI.

Cheers Damian

[John 3rd]

Thinking on things, I am going to shut down all but a few merchant yards.  This should provide me an immediate boost and not hurt in important areas. 
 
What might Damian and my Retired Economics MInister think of that option?
 
I've often thought about how my AAR has really gotten into the economic questions of Japan and how readers have benefited from this discussion.  Perhaps now would be a good time to discuss the relative merits of when the Japanese economy begins to be strangled.  What are good options?  What are bad ones?
 
Considering that the noose hasn't closed YET we still have time to look at things and discuss 'options.'
 

[Q-Ball]

First, there is a good chance that Dan has no idea how critical your Oil situation is. He is in position already to flatten Palembang. The Oil on Borneo is probably pretty safe. It's too late to repair Oil, you won't get much return for the supplies invested. The fact that he hasn't already bombed Niigata probably means he doesn't know you have an Oil problem. That's good.

Turning off HI doesn't do anything IMO. It will reduce the RATE at which you burn oil, but you can store the HI points, supplies, and fuel that creates, so there is no benefit to stopping HI, unless you need to "ration" yourself. But if you can conserve the supplies/fuel/HI, then go ahead and burn all the oil you can.

I think you need to conserve HI ASAP for the day the Oil stops. Some steps you can afford to take:
1. Turn off VEHICLES altogether. Don't produce any. You have enough for 2nd Tank Div, and Damien is right, you don't need alot more than that.
2. Turn off MERCHANT shipyards altogether. You shouldn't need more merchant ships, even though it looks like you have lost alot.
3. Ramp down KAWASAKI engines; only produce just enough to get you to the Frank. The minute the Frank comes close to on-line, stop these factories and use the stocks. You don't need TONY when you have the FRANK.

You should think about......
1. Turning off some NAVAL SHIPYARDS. Maybe you can live without those accelerated CVs; won't they just become targets anyway? The IJN Navy is dying, and unfortunately, the airforce gets priority.
2. Turn off the A6M5c. You have enough for now.
3. Turn off the A6M5 for now. You have alot of Jacks/Georges for your IJN Daitai

You still need to produce:
1. ARMAMENTS: Your pool here is low, and you need boots on the ground. I would tell you to increase production, but I don't think you can afford it. You may need to set replacements to OFF on the map in order to bring in Reinforcement Units. Most of the new divisions don't cost more than a few hundred ARM points, so make sure you keep this pool alive for all those new infantry units you are about to get.
You have 11,500 ARM in the pool. About 4/15, you get 7 Divisions and 1 Mixed Bde for Reinforcements; that will take your pool below 4,000. That's before the early April Reinforcements, 3rd Gds and one other Div. You are approaching critical in Armaments.
2. AIRCRAFT: Other than those models mentioned above, you need to keep up Aircraft and Engine production. You have a little cushion in engines, but not that much, and you will burn through Nakas fast when the Frank comes online.

[John 3rd]

Q-Ball:

Excellent comments as normal.

I will pull up the game and see if I can get some specifics to throw out for forum consumption.

Initial thoughts:
1.  Turn off Merchant Shipyards
2.  Shut down A6M5c and shift it to Frank/Jack/George??  Probably a bad idea since it will simply cost more supply...
3.  I'll think about the accelerated CVs.  My Fleet is trashed and what I truly need are DDs!
4. Need to think on the whole vehicle proposal. I have armored units that massively need to rebuild. Perhaps I will continue with production for another month or two and then shut it down? Hmmm...
5. YES--I have looking forward to all those new divisions coming in about mid-month to stregthen my Home Island defense. The true way to finish this is for Dan to land on the Home Islands again. Had he NOT shifted from Hokkaido to Sakhalin, I would never have been able to retake that northern part of Home.

You are right in thinking that Dan must have no clue as to my situation.  His bombing has been focused on troops, ports, and occasionally resource centers.  I HOPE it stays that way!