The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[jwolf]

Was the Japanese air raid from Shanghai a "normal" raid, or Kamikazes?

[Canoerebel]

Normal bombing raid.

John's flown a few kamikaze raids in the DEI - mostly Zeroes that end up targeting PT boats and LCTs to little effect.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Seems strange that Osaka's HI and LI have suffered so badly from the fires but only one aircraft (Tony) plant has taken damage.
In Tokyo and Nagasaki the damage is spread around a bit more.

To me, it looks like the reason is because the non-industry factories are much smaller. At Tokyo and Nagasaki, the factories are larger - more likely to suffer some damaged when rolled up against 1K-point industries.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe said the strat bombing learning curve was tough. He was right.

Lokasenna urged, "Bomb at 2k! The losses are worth it." He was right.

Targeting Manpower definitely seems the way to go. I'm taking pretty heavy losses now at 2k (sometimes 3k or 4k) - in fact, the losses aren't sustainable. At this rate, I'll run out of B-29s in about a month. But the hits scored at 2k are dramatically higher than at 8k or 10k or more. Dramatically. Enough so that the attrition/point scored is probably considerably lower.

And there's hope. I'm hoping that getting the B-24Js flying from Ningpo will take a big part of the load.

And the newer, fast, longer-range B-29s start coming online in three days. I probably won't get them in the war for at least two or three weeks but they'll make a big impact before the year is out, I think. (It takes a long time for B-29s that arrive at East Coast to make West Coast and become airworthy and make the hops to Midway to Formosa).

I probably need to score another 30k to 40k strategic points to get within striking range of auto victory by year's end. That may be possible but it's going to be hard. If auto vic is the objective, I probably need to forego the DEI and pour all resources - supply, men, ships, aircraft - into Formosa and the China campaign. That's the most efficient, will open up ground war possibilities, and keeps my schwerpunkt intact as my air force turns its full attention on Japan.

When I switched to "long term" bombing for points, I upped my altitude to 7K (minimum to avoid balloons). In most cases.

When I really wanted to bomb a particular target, like a certain factory or ships I suspected were in a port, I absolutely hit at 2K. The risk is worth the reward, but it isn't sustainable for B-29s. For B-24s, yes... to an extent.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

5000 Kamikazes? I thought there were only a dozen or so kamikaze squadrons so the number can never exceed a few hundred?

Any group can be made a kami group. The pilots in group at the time have to be less than 50 exp. Japan can have a LOT of kamis.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe said the strat bombing learning curve was tough. He was right.

Lokasenna urged, "Bomb at 2k! The losses are worth it." He was right.

Targeting Manpower definitely seems the way to go. I'm taking pretty heavy losses now at 2k (sometimes 3k or 4k) - in fact, the losses aren't sustainable. At this rate, I'll run out of B-29s in about a month. But the hits scored at 2k are dramatically higher than at 8k or 10k or more. Dramatically. Enough so that the attrition/point scored is probably considerably lower.

And there's hope. I'm hoping that getting the B-24Js flying from Ningpo will take a big part of the load.

And the newer, fast, longer-range B-29s start coming online in three days. I probably won't get them in the war for at least two or three weeks but they'll make a big impact before the year is out, I think. (It takes a long time for B-29s that arrive at East Coast to make West Coast and become airworthy and make the hops to Midway to Formosa).

I probably need to score another 30k to 40k strategic points to get within striking range of auto victory by year's end. That may be possible but it's going to be hard. If auto vic is the objective, I probably need to forego the DEI and pour all resources - supply, men, ships, aircraft - into Formosa and the China campaign. That's the most efficient, will open up ground war possibilities, and keeps my schwerpunkt intact as my air force turns its full attention on Japan.

Having seen it from the Japanese side I can tell you that 7k is fine. No need to skewer your beasts on balloons.

Keep hitting Tokyo and Osaka. That's about it. Once they're toast, the Japanese economy will begin to unravel. Then pick your spots and torch aircraft factories, big industry bases (don't forget resources work too, and there are some very big resource bases with less defences), and refineries.

The B-29 with no guns and double the load makes it all much easier. Just don't use them in daylight unless you know there is no CAP. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

10/29/44

KB East: John is concentrating a lot of carrier power in the DEI. I'm watching. I have lots of ships moving to and from Rangoon, and to and from Boela. Those are the main concerns. He may be planning a counter-invasion - best guess is south of Phnom Penh. (That wouldn't be a concern even if he landed five divisions with hopes of retaking Bangkok.)

[Canoerebel]

10/29/44

Bay of Bengal: Allied safeguards are in place just in case John chooses to raid the Bay of Bengal.

[Canoerebel]

10/29/44

Fancy Pants: Sensing weakness in the enemy stacks at Shaohing, to the north, and Chaochow, to the south, the Allies will attack in strength tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

10/29/44

Estimating Victory Conditions: Based on current scoring and likely future trends, I think the Allies will achieve victory around February or March 1945. It is possible but difficult to achieve victory in January 1945. And if John manages to rough up the Allies, the ate could be put off until the summer of '45. Something really bad would have to happen to the Allies to push the date further than that.

[JohnDillworth]

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Having seen it from the Japanese side I can tell you that 7k is fine. No need to skewer your beasts on balloons.

Having been Japanese and seeing bombers at 7K not do what my bombers at 2K do...

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

Having seen it from the Japanese side I can tell you that 7k is fine. No need to skewer your beasts on balloons.

Having been Japanese and seeing bombers at 7K not do what my bombers at 2K do...

Sure, but you lose and damage the beasts at 2k. Your operation frequency is also a factor in strat bombing. The more strikes the better, so your results might not be as good each strike, but you get more in per week.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in

Retirement set-night bombardment.
remain on station-day bombardment.

Except if you are bombarding a non base hex which I never really do.

I have never seen this vary in ten years of playing this game.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in

Retirement set-night bombardment.
remain on station-day bombardment.

Except if you are bombarding a non base hex which I never really do.

I have never seen this vary in ten years of playing this game.

If you already have a good D/L from night recon, your "Remain on Station" TF has a chance of bombarding both night and day.

[Canoerebel]

10/30/44

The Allies win decisive battles on both the north and sound ends of Fancy Pants. The question becomes: can John stabilize this front or does this destabilize the entire Japanese position in China. I think it's the latter. I think, therefore, that I'm going to poor all units and supply into China rather than breaking contact to attend to the DEI.

Battle of Chaochow: See graphic.

[Canoerebel]

10/30/44

Battle of Shaohing: See graphic.

[Canoerebel]

10/30/44

Fancy Pants: Things rapidly heating up in China.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in

Retirement set-night bombardment.
remain on station-day bombardment.

Except if you are bombarding a non base hex which I never really do.

I have never seen this vary in ten years of playing this game.

If you already have a good D/L from night recon, your "Remain on Station" TF has a chance of bombarding both night and day.

I've never even heard of that.

[Canoerebel]

I don't know one way or the other but in most cases bombardment TFs are good for one run - and one run only. They use a lot of their ammo so that the second run is considerably dampened. You might can affect that my having a low aggression commander that doesn't shoot off a lot of ammo on day one but I've never tried that before. Not sure why I'd do it.

Bombardment TFs, like Starland Vocal Band, are one-hit wonders.