Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

In reviewing the map the final time while issuing orders, taking into consideratino everything that's going on, it's pretty clear that Steve is moving very carefully because he's "terrified" of the great weight of Allied air power at Oosthaven and Palemabang (and augmented by carrier air and Batavia).  I'm 99.9% sure his carriers are to provide CAP for an invasion of Ketapang (funny, because he could take the vacant base by paratroop, air transport some base force personnel, land an engineer unit by fast transport, and get a decent airfield operational, thus saving himself the time and fears).  In all likellihood, he's not going to hit eastern Sumatra until he has a mammoth network of airfields in close proximity, includng western Java.  If that assessment is accurate, the Allies have another month or two before the enemy will come.  That puts us into the summer months.

[Canoerebel]

5/14/42
 
IJN Carriers:  The Japanese carriers, moving in conjunction with what appears to be a massive armada of amphibious ships, slipped by Ketapang and continued on a southeast cuorse.  I don't know what Steve is up to.  Why would he invade the north coast of Java from this direction - by far the more hazardous of the two (he could have slipped into the Java Sea by way of the Makassar Strait with no risk at all).  Moreover, why risk a major invasion at all?  He has 300 AV ashore on the southeastern tip.  That force can easily roll up Java all by itself.  Perhaps Steve is just trying to orchestrate a massive CAP trap to attrit Allied air power.  This is puzzling (but if I heard Steve's explanation I'm sure it would make sense). 
 
Allied Carriers:  Allied air on Java and Sumatra are reigned in by short range settings.  The Allies carriers are at Cocos Island and heading west.  I'll keep them in the vicinity to draw off air sqadrons if needed, but I plan to rotate the carriers back to Colombo - two at a time - to replenish sorties. 
 
Java:  A stout TF flagged by CAs Exeter and San Francisco hit the enemy amphibious shipping at Loembajang, jousitng to no great effect with enemy combat ships including Mogami, but also doing serious damage to the Japanese LSD Akitsu Maru and another AMC.  Meanwhile, KXVI got another AMC near Makassar.  I think six IJ AMCs and the one LSD have been sunk or seriously damaged.  I'm hoping that stings since Steve will need big sea lift capacity when he comes for Sumatra.
 
Burma:  The Allies have landed roughly 75% of the firepower at Moulmein.  The Japanese paratroops didn't attack, so Steve doesn't know exaclty what the Allies have here.  27th Div. a tank regiment, and a Brit brigade will immediately move north to Pegu.  The scouting Burma Army unit just arrived there and found it vacant, so in all likelihood it will fall tomorrow.  The Allied garrison at Schewbo is on the move - it will attack across the river at Mandalay in about four days.  To protect the shiping at Moulmein, the Allies have one RN BB, CA Portland, and a handful of other combat ships.  This move is shaping up nicely.
 
SoPac:  Most of the Allied troops have come ashore (finally!) at Pago Pago. The AV is now 349, up from 137 two days ago.  Also, a good SeaBee unit came ashore, which will help with fort building (curently at 3.75).  That should be enough to hold off anything but a titanic enemy invasion, and I don't think the enemy can afford such.  I do think Steve has supplies and a few more small units on the way.  An unpleasant surprise awaits them.

[Canoerebel]

5/15/42
 
I recall in my craziest game with John III, the Allies (me) had a massive amphibious armada that sailed slowly from Hawaii to Iwo Jima and then steamed around for awhile before the opportunity was right to strike.  The trip was so protracted that it was dubbed "the magical mystical mystery tour."  That's what Steve seems to be doing in the Java Sea right now...

Java Sea:  The Japanese armada - KB, transports, everything - has continued east in the Java Sea so that it's nearing Banjermasin and not making any obvious feint towards an Allied base.  The only thing I can come up with is that Steve was testing my defenses, though he's gotten very little intel to this point.  Banshees from Oosthaven did sortie to damage/sink an xAP and an xAK.  Since time is gold for the Allies now, I hope the tour continues.

Sumatra:  In retaliation for an ineffective IJ night attack at Palembang a few days ago, B-17s returned the favor and hit Singapore, damaging/sinking an ACM, sub, and xAK.  Sub O-22 sank a sub just east of Singers.  I forgot to mention that IJ subs and mines claimed three Allied minelayers near Oosthaven yesterday - a bit of a blow.  Things are mostly quiet on Sumatra at the moment as the Allies continue to dig an build.

Burma:  Things look good here.  The Burma Army unit took vacant Pegu, and a US tank battalion from Moulmein will arrive there tomorrow or the following day, followed in four or five days by 27th Div., a UK Bde, and artillery and tank destroyers.  (A UK brigade and a US battalion will remain on guard at Moulmein).  The Allies paid 300 PP to buy two small Chinese infantry on the border.  The units, totalling 150 AV, will move on Lashio.  The Burma Army is on the move towards Mandalay from Schwebo and should cross the river to assault in three days.

China:  The Chinese are vectoring units towards three Japanese concentrations - two already defeated and thus very weak; the third a fresh IJA division (40th).

NoPac:  Quiet.

CenPac:  Tarawa invasion TFs are perhaps four days out of Pearl Harbor.

SoPac:  360 AV for the Allies at Pago Pago.  The ships are still unloading supplies and heavy equipment, but most will depart the port in another day or two.

Allied Carriers:  CV Illustrious is on the way from Colombo to patrol south of Sumatra, where she'll join CVs Hornet and Saratoga (in separate TFs).  The other CVs will retire to Colombo to refresh sorties.  I'll set up a chain of carriers to allow carrier squadrons to stage from Colombo to Sumatra if needed.  I don't want to base them there before the carriers depart because the fields are packed.

Summary:  Nemo made a very good point about the Allies committing their reserves and the costs involved.  I'm paying some of that cost now as some carriers and combat ships need to replenish at Colombo, which puts them out of position for at least ten days.  On the other hand, the Allies have been able to attrit Japanese shipping and display a aggressive stance that might further slow Steve down as he contemplates how to deal with Fortress Sumatra.  The vortexes all over the map - DEI and Kuriles and now Burma and (to a lesser extent) Pago Pago have locked up a sizeable percentage of IJ assets.  As a result, Steve doesn't seem to be paying attention to NW Oz or Port Moresby.  Given time to accumulate the needed PP, the Allies will next look to reinforcing these places.  That will be effective if it occurs before Steve wraps up things in the DEI, which I hope is never.

[GreyJoy]

If you'd manage to try to get that Armada with a fast SCTF (maybe composed only by cruisers and british destroyers) during a night time engagement i think you'd come up with a wonderfull result...for sure you'll lose your ships but you could tear apart the whole invasion

[Canoerebel]

Steve's alert to that possibility, so there's a 99.5% chance such a mission would fail.  The Allies would have to slip combat ships close enough to strike, but Steve holds bases to each side, meaning his patrols would almost certainly report Allied combat ships at least two days before they could strike.

[paullus99]

If he isn't committing to a particular invasion location, my inclination is to say that he's trying to goad you into letting loose with your carriers, LBA and surface forces, particular that on Sumatra, to bleed you in anticipation of an actual invasion later on. Of course, the backup plan could be (if you don't attack him directly) to then stage a real invasion at a less vital location, but some place you do have to defend.

Either way, I think you are correct in going for the low-cost, low-risk approach in the face of that much combined power. Actually, it continues to work in your favor, because you will continue to frustrate him & chew around the edges. Of course, keep an eye on any real opportunities that may come up to hit an isolated portion of that force.

[vettim89]

I know this is unlikely but he could be going for Oz. He just showed you this blob to try to get you to react. Like I said, unlikely but still a possibility

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that's a possibilty.  Certainly, Perth, Darwin and Townsville are legitimate and important targets.  However, at this late date committing a major force there when he has a world of trouble in the DEI seems very unlikely and counterproductive.
 
He could drop fifteen divisions in Oz and could quite possibly conquer the entire continent, but doing so would trigger the reinforcements that the Allies would use to forever hold Burma (and possibly Sumatra), so that the game would essentially end.  It would be a form of suicide.
 
For those reasons, I don't expect a big move on Oz at this time.
 

[John 3rd]

I remember your wanderings with that invasion fleet (the magical, mystical, mystery tour) and the craziness of the Iwo Jima landing! Seems like a long time ago.

[Canoerebel]

It does seem long ago now, but so fun.

A remarkable feature of that game - that neither of us new at the time, but which our AAR readers followed with barely concealed glee - occurred in 1944.

The Allies had already pulled an inside straight in game by taking and holding Iwo and Sikhalin Island.  You, clever crazy man, decided to counterinvade India...in 1944!  While your massive invasion armada was steaming thruogh the Indian Ocean south of Sumatra, i was busy shifting Allied carriers from Oz to India for reasons that I do not recall now.  Anyhow, it seems that our two forces came in close proximity, almost engage in a mutually surprsing titanic battle, but missing each other by the slimmest of margins.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It does seem long ago now, but so fun.

A remarkable feature of that game - that neither of us new at the time, but which our AAR readers followed with barely concealed glee - occurred in 1944.

The Allies had already pulled an inside straight in game by taking and holding Iwo and Sikhalin Island.  You, clever crazy man, decided to counterinvade India...in 1944!  While your massive invasion armada was steaming thruogh the Indian Ocean south of Sumatra, i was busy shifting Allied carriers from Oz to India for reasons that I do not recall now.  Anyhow, it seems that our two forces came in close proximity, almost engage in a mutually surprsing titanic battle, but missing each other by the slimmest of margins.

Wasn't that the so-called "ball bearings rolling around a metal trash can" game? Or similar wording.

[Canoerebel]

Dang, Moose, what a memory!  Yes, I referred to all those Japanese troops roaming around the interior of India as "marbles in a metal bucket."

[John 3rd]

I have very fond memories of that long campaign. I used the analogy of being Apollo Creed boxing Rocky Balboa. Sank ship after ship (hit you with punch after punch) and you STILL KEPT coming! Couldn't KO you even after sinking 1,100+ ships. It was wild, unpredictable, and a blast to play.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Dang, Moose, what a memory!  Yes, I referred to all those Japanese troops roaming around the interior of India as "marbles in a metal bucket."

Must be the lack of O2 at altitude. Just back from Bozeman, MT. A 2100 mile drive. Three days with my dad, stepmom, new bride, plus a gelding, a jenny, two fat cats, and two pretty useless excuses for mutts (but they make the 'rents happy, so . . .)

I don't believe I've ever said this before, but I've had enough steak to last me for awhile.

[JeffroK]

Back in those days I was waiting for CR's secret landing on an unoccupied Ilolio, wasnt that where your Iwo invasion was really headed for??

[Canoerebel]

Right, Jeff.  In that game, Alied operations were given space-named themes.  Operation Red Planet was the long-time Allied plan to drop a massive invasion somewhere deep in the enemy heartland - in this case, sailing right past the outer perimiter of Japanese defenses to land a huge army on Luzon.  That plan was built around the fact that Japan hadn't taken Iloilo yet, so that the Allies could transfer some P-38s from China, thus giving a little bit of CAP while also allowing the Allies to do some last-second recon.

Even while the Allis were developing that plan, John III took Iloilo.  So the Allied plan began to morph as I looked for other possible targets and eventually settled on Iwo Jima.  The invasion of Iwo Jima was successful and one of the critical moments in the game.  I think it occurred in mid 1943.

[Canoerebel]

I'm just now seeing the turn for 5/16/42.  While I'll do a regular post a bit later, there are a few interesting things I wanted to mention:
 
1.  The entire KB is in the Java Sea, including Junyo.  That means NoPac is probably carrier free at the moment.  Steve might have Hosho up there, and Hiyo unsually arrives in July, but could be expedited.  That increases the possiblity that the Allies migh be able to ram in some supply to Paramushiro, along with bringing in some fighters.  In other words, if Steve totally puts NoPac on the back burner while he deals with the DEI, the Allies can take advanage of it.  (However, he can easily overwhelm the Kuriles right now simply by bringing three divisions and just plowing ahead; but I'm not sure he's willing to do that given the losses he's taken.)  There's a chance the Allies will send Wasp this way.
 
2.  The Japanese are landing three divisions at Semerang.  So Steve now has four divisions (6th Guards, 4th, 52nd and Imperial Guards) to an island that might have 150 AV.  A massive misallocation of forces due to a failure to gather recon and evaluate the situation (IMO).  He'll steamroll through Java, but doing so will take him a few weeks just due to movement.  He's closing the noose around Sumatra, but doing so much more slowly and methodically than he needed to do.
 
3.  The Aliles have perhaps a month before eastern Sumatra is truly covered from all directions (except south).  I need to bring in as much supply as possible and decide if I want any more troops there.
 
4.  With four IJ divisions on Java and Steve apparently fully focused on the DEI, the odds of a major Japanese amphibious operation elsewhere go down (and they were already pretty low).  This is a good time for the Allies to do as much as possible to apply pressure on the perimeter - Burma, China, NoPac, CenPac (Tarawa), SoPac (Pago Pago), and SWPac (if I can get enough PP to pull some things together over the next two months, I think the Allies will reinforce Port Moresby and occupy Milne Bay).

[paullus99]

What about a strike at Rabaul? If he's not putting a lot of resources into the Solomons, perhaps a jab using the troops you have in the area might pay some dividends (especially if he's forced to commit his LBA to an extended campaign against Sumatra)?

[Canoerebel]

Hmmm, that might be a bridge too far.  I'm desperately short of PP.  It will take weeks to accumulate the PP to buy the restricted Aussie units allocated to future offensive operations in SWPac.  Leaping as far forward as Rabaul, which is well within Japan's air umbrella, would be a roll of the dice.  But leaping forward to occupy PM and Milne Bay in force in the next two or three weeks is a possibility...and at that point a further leap across New Guinea or even further might be possible if Steve is well and truly tied up elsewhere.

It's a good thought.  Japan is certainly going to have its hands full in the DEI and with the serious blazes occuring in Burma, China, NoPac and Gilberts, so the Allies need to be prepared to press forward in more open, less well-defended places.

[paullus99]

Another idea for you - if you've got him tied down at Pago Pago, you might look at using a bit of those troops (if all aren't needed - since there is no reason to eliminate his presence there, if he's supply-starved - he's stuck anyway) to roll up one or two of his nearby bases, if they aren't adequately guarded.

I realize that flat-tops are pretty scarce right now, outside of your main concentrations, but certainly something to keep in mind, should you be able to shake free a CVE or two once they become available.