See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[BBfanboy]

You may be reading too much into it Macclan5. He can get fuel easily from nearby Soerabaja and Balikpapan. The entire Celebes generates lots of resources but no supply at all, but it does not take all that much to support ships. He is bringing it in from Java, most likely, where Soerabaja and Batavia generate supply.

I read the use of Kendari as just a good blocking position against any Allied move west or north. It is an important base to keep because in Allied hands it might be in HB range of Balikpapan.

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

You may be reading too much into it Macclan5. He can get fuel easily from nearby Soerabaja and Balikpapan. The entire Celebes generates lots of resources but no supply at all, but it does not take all that much to support ships. He is bringing it in from Java, most likely, where Soerabaja and Batavia generate supply.

I read the use of Kendari as just a good blocking position against any Allied move west or north. It is an important base to keep because in Allied hands it might be in HB range of Balikpapan.

+1 good observation.

I think your analysis is bang on.

I did mention Soerabaja .... thanks for that note on Batavia

There is very good recon on map.. besides the TFs identified there would appear to be ship LCU and LBA there... so while its coming in its : (1) not going to the home islands and (2) in steady consumption if Japan attempts to counter attack including loading up xAPs and xAKs..hmmmm

I think Ser Apborag has a really good idea ... a series of feints even with some empty xAks xAps at Dobo / Taberfane to be purposely spotted ...should draw out the IJN and continue to use supply.... he can make some hay elsewhere i.e. Japan cant be strong everywhere...

[apbarog]

Thanks for the comments BBfanboy and Macclan5.
My feint toward Taberfane is not with empty ships. I want to push more supply and more troops into Timoeka, particularly some armor. My movement toward the area may look like another invasion. My carriers will support the movement.

I was tempted to immediately make my next invasion, but I shouldn't rush. My troops could use more prep time. None are prepped completely, and some are less than 50 prep. Waiting for another carrier, waiting just a couple of weeks, won't hurt. In the mean time, I'll reinforce Timoeka, Babar, and Saumlaki.

Lots of stuff are moving behind the scenes, getting things set up for bigger and better operations to come.

I still have to be careful. My 4 big carriers aren't a death star. I'm more vulnerable than Walker thinks I am, in my opinion. But with each week, I'm gaining more strength. I will make a big move soon, just not today. No point in losing my carriers now, with Hornet coming soon and Essex coming from Panama. I've been lucky to not lose any big carriers so far. It would be unwise for me to invade so close to where KB is stationed.

I've decided that a little bit of patience, while I consolidate things, isn't a bad thing.

[apbarog]

14 May 43

Both minefields near Boela are now being swept by the enemy.

2 P-38 squadrons sweep Dili, individually. Results are good. Enemy losses are 9 A6M3 Zeros, 8 Ki-43IIa Oscars, and 7 Ki-43IIb Oscars. 5 P-38s are lost, losing just 2 KIA. I'll rest for a day.

One B-17 squadron bombed Dobo's airfield. I'm not coming for Dobo yet, but I don't mind making it look like my nearby ships are headed this way.

US carriers will escort ships carrying supply and troops for Timoeka. They'll move just 2 hexes from Dobo, keeping my destination not completely obvious. Troops for Timoeka include vehicle fragments of several units already there, and an armor unit.

Fletchers will move back to Darwin. Had they been there today, they might have made a high speed run to Lautern.

I have a P-47 squadron now. I'm switching out the average pilots that came with it for my best. They are at Sydney.

I am going to force reinforcements to Timoeka, Babar, and Saumlaki over the next week. When Hornet arrives from repairs, we'll make the next jump.

[apbarog]

15 May 43

Tiny enemy minesweepers continue to slowly clear my mines near Boela.

3 US subchasers go to Dobo, hoping to appear like an invasion is imminent. The SCs find an enemy patrol boat and a small xAKL. Both sides retreat from battle.

B-25s hit Dobo's airfield and part of the enemy 8th Infantry Division there. More misdirection, hoping to give my ships moving to Timoeka an extra day of safety, if the enemy reacts to a possible invasion of Dobo instead.

36 SBDs escorted by 36 F6Fs attack the mentioned ships at Dobo. Both small ships are sunk.

The Indian LRP Brigade at Saumlaki attacks the remaining enemy outside of the base. The enemy will be eliminated easily, given a week or so.

KB remained at Kendari, again. My carriers will move adjacent to Timoeka to protect shipping rushing into Timoeka. Supply, armor, and some men will unload. Corsairs arrive to Timoeka to provide CAP.

I spot a minesweeper halfway between Ambon and Babar/Saumlaki. I order 2 destroyers to rush to Babar to make a possible night intercept. Walker has been sending single tiny minesweepers to Babar at night.

SigInt reports that the 38th Infantry Division is loaded on APs and headed to Singapore. I have no recent information on this unit. The last info I had on it was that it was planning an attack at Chittagong. That was quite awhile ago, and I didn't know its location at the time.

[apbarog]

16 May 43

Sub Balao fires 2 torpedoes at an xAKL west of Nagasaki. One hits but is a dud.

At Nadzab, in New Guinea just north of Lae, the US Americal Division attacked parts of 7 enemy units, most of which had been kicked out of Lae. The enemy 4th Infantry Division was just a tiny fragment, so part of it may have been evacuated from the area. The attack goes at 2 to 1 and lowers the fort to 1. The dot base will fall. I plan on Americal heading further north.

At Saumlaki, the Indian paras attack and destroy 19 enemy squads. The rest of the 83rd Naval Guard Unit is then surrounded and eliminated.

Today Japanese carriers left Kendari, and headed east. It is too soon to know what its intentions are. It can get to within 7 hexes of Timoeka with an 8 hex move if it so chooses today.

I decide to pull back my carriers toward Gove. I keep my transports at Timoeka, and now have Corsairs and P-39s there on CAP. I don't think that KB will challenge the landing today, seeing my carriers right there. It may change its mind tomorrow, after seeing my carriers leave. We'll see.

There is one of my sub minefields just to the east of KB, a minefield that hasn't been found yet. Today would be a good day for a mine hit, I think.

I have LSTs loading at Darwin, and a small troop convoy heading north from Gove. These ships will move to Babar with carrier support. Saumlaki will then be reinforced.

The next big operation will start when CV Hornet arrives from Sydney.

[Macclan5]

Thanks for the update - very good one AP...

One wonders with all those subs deployed in theater - if you could not just walk invasion troops from Darwin to Taberfane across the hulls [8D]

---

Your Timokea TFS indeed probably hint at an invasion force into Dobo / Taberfame ... the suggested feint we discussed above. The feint may hav succeeded.

Well done as forcing the KB move east increases risk of your mines and / or a sub hit...and if you have sufficient Corsairs /experience on CAP at Timokea ...and he strikes...you could very well significantly thin the KB heard leaving you well positioned for a counter strike with Hellcats.

The only other question is if he has decided to move out of theater to deliver a blow on Northern New Guinea... it would be hard to race around the south end to spot position to the KB... no updates from you over there but I assume you have lots of LB airframes RAAF / USAAF providing support.

[apbarog]

16 May 43 - New Guinea and Solomons Update

US Americal Division is about to take Nadzab, just north of Lae. Many enemy units are stranded in the interior mountains. As long as the enemy doesn't build an airfield, or take one of mine, these troops are essentially prisoners of war. There is a division at Kokoda, and another on the coast fighting my Marines between Buna and Salamaua. Base building continues everywhere.

The Solomons have been quiet. Equal combat value exists at Munda. I do have a regiment prepping for Munda, but it is still on the West Coast and not filled out yet. This unit was lost at either Taberfane or Dobo awhile back.

New Guinea and the Solomons are a low priority for me now. It's just an area to keep the enemy's attention. My focus is from Darwin north. As such, I've been shuffling units, and, in general, pulling out the full infantry divisions. The only 2 divisions staying here are Americal, which will push north toward Madang, and a division guarding Milne Bay. A division is being taken out of Lae, as well as one out of Salamaua. The US 43rd Infantry Division has been split, and pieces will guard Finschafen, Salamaua, and Lae. Buna has an Australian unit.

I don't think that Walker will counter-invade here. I have too many bases, too big, and too close together. A couple of divisions could take most of these bases, but Walker would be destined to eventually lose these units. Having lost 2 divisions in India, and now having 2 divisions isolated in New Guinea, I don't see something that risky occurring here.

The enemy has also drawn down troops in this area. Rabaul has seen a decrease in troop levels, as well as airpower based there. I could do a maximum heavy bomber effort on Rabaul now, but I don't see the need. Sure, I could shut down the base, but Walker isn't hiding ships in port here, and if I don't have an offensive plan in the area, there isn't much point. Other than attrition.

Right now I need my planes at the point of my attack, which isn't going to be here.

[jwolf]

On the other hand, perhaps if you made some aggressive actions in the Solomons it could help to divert Japanese forces and soften the defenses where you really are going to operate.

[apbarog]

I'm pretty sure that I don't have any infantry divisions available for the Solomons. With so many targets being prepped for already, and New Guinea bases being backfilled with regiments and brigades, it would be a challenge to come up with a Solomons plan that had enough force to warrant a response.

A slow advance in the Solomons isn't much of a threat. It's probably the least threatening point of advance really. Lots of distance and work to do, just to get to the northern tip of New Guinea. But I do have a threatening advance going north of Australia, and it's pointed right at oil production.

I hope that I will have a wide enough front of advance, from western New Guinea through Dobo, Taberfane, Saumlaki and Babar, and then further west. Room to strike north from many places. Enough room to not have KB sitting right at my next target. Hopefully.

The time will come soon enough to bludgeon my way forward, KB or not. But I'd like to finesse my way a bit further first.

[apbarog]

17 May 43

Southwest of Koepang, Dutch sub KXI hits already damaged AMC Akagi Maru with 2 torpedoes. This was the AMC previously torpedoed as it approached Broome. It is reportedly sunk now.

B-25s hit enemy troops near Daly Waters, causing massive losses in the clear terrain. An Australian unit is headed south to clean up what is left.

Nadzab is captured.

Ground combat at Nadzab (98,125)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 11873 troops, 202 guns, 125 vehicles, Assault Value = 325

Defending force 6405 troops, 63 guns, 39 vehicles, Assault Value = 83

Allied adjusted assault: 277

Japanese adjusted defense: 79

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied forces CAPTURE Nadzab !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), supply(-)
Attacker: leaders(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2042 casualties reported
Squads: 50 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 117 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 27 (27 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 32 (32 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 6

Allied ground losses:
122 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
Americal Infantry Division

Defending units:
3rd Raiding Regiment
4th Raiding Regiment
Maizuru 1st SNLF
4th Div /3
2nd Area Army
51st JNAF AF Unit
18th JAAF AF Bn

********************

KB is hanging out northwest of Ambon. Intentions are unclear.

Troops and supply continue to unload at Timoeka. SigInt today reported that 2/48 Div is planning an attack at Timoeka. I already knew about this division, but the fragment shows that the unit is probably loaded on ships now. Are they coming? We shall see. Nice that I'm landing tanks right now, just in case.

My carriers start to escort ships to Babar. Hornet still needs 4 days of repair at Sydney.

[apbarog]

18 May 43

Near Cooktown, 4 Fletchers are southbound. These Fletchers took some damage doing a high speed run into Broome last week. Now they are heading for repairs. Near Cooktown they run over I-7, get 3 good depth charge hits, and sink the sub.

At Nadzab, the US Americal Division clears the last enemy unit, the 2nd Area Army HQ. Lots of enemy troops destroyed, kicking the unit to the northeast. Americal will continue north, with an armor unit moving to Nadzab to cover the base.

On the coast, near Buna, the US 3rd Marine Division makes another effort against the 9th Division. The enemy is out of supply, but the attack is still rough. With current troops, this is going to be a long attritional battle.

Ground combat at 99,128 (near Buna)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14881 troops, 208 guns, 274 vehicles, Assault Value = 410

Defending force 15467 troops, 79 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 347

Allied adjusted assault: 268

Japanese adjusted defense: 631

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
528 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
758 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 77 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 26 (4 destroyed, 22 disabled)

Assaulting units:
1st Tank Battalion
3rd Marine Division
2/8th Armoured Regiment

Defending units:
9th Division
87th Naval Guard Unit
14th Naval Construction Battalion
19th Army
58th Construction Battalion
2nd Area Army /1


KB moves a bit, still hugging the coast to the north. I'm sending some troops and supply into Babar today, with 4 US carriers covering. I do see a couple of cruisers and destroyers at Koepang.

I have many subs patrolling north and east of Timor.

[apbarog]

19 May 43

Near Makassar, sub Swordfish spots a big task force with mostly xAKs and xAKLs. It targets a tiny tanker, Seiwa Maru, and hits it with one torpedo. It is not loaded. This task force is later spotted, and its course shows that it is heading to Soerbaja. Sub Pike gets a torpedo hit on xAK Tsuyama Maru.

The enemy finally responds to the loss of Attu. 3 cruisers and 5 destroyers move to the island, finding small minesweeper Kelowna, sinking her. The enemy does not bombard, and it also doesn't find the cargo task force unloading here. The enemy ships are spotted 9 hexes west during the daylight, on course to the most eastern Kurile island.

3 US cruisers bombard Taberfane, causing moderate damage to troops and the runway, less to the port.

2 US cruisers bombard Dobo, doing almost no damage.

A squadron of B-26s bomb enemy troops at Saidor. These troops had been pushed here from north of Lae, and I wanted to slow there movement as they attempt to not be cut off by my division moving north. I sent no escort, and there was ranged CAP, with Oscars and Tojos patrolling. 9 Marauders were downed. I learned that Walker is still using distant ranged CAP even where we aren't fighting much.

A large US tanker was lost near Darwin. It was inbound with fuel, in a tanker convoy. The only message I got about it was during the replay, when it said that the fires were out of control. I checked the files and didn't see the cause of the damage, but the ship was lost. No mines seen in the area.

Today KB is hugging Ambon. I unloaded men and supply at Babar. US carriers will move south today. CV Hornet has 2 more days of repair at Sydney. It will move to Gove and then the next phase of landings will begin. A Brit carrier has one more day of repair from upgrade at San Francsico. CV Essex is moving from Panama to Pago Pago.

Today I start more intensive work on Timor. I have 4 P-38 groups at Darwin. I will sweep Timor with them, 2 at a time, and wear down the fighter defenses. I'm mixing in an F6F group also. Bombers will join in after a day or so.

[apbarog]

19 May 43 - Other Information

Allied Carriers:

CV Yorktown, Saratoga, Enterprise, and Wasp north of Darwin
CV Hornet repairing at Sydney, 2 days to release
CV Lexington near Suva heading to Pearl Harbor SYS 2, FLT 34, ENG 22
CV victorious at San Fransisco upgrading, 1 day to release
CV Essex heading to Pago Pago from Panama

CVE Chenango near Suva heading to Pearl Harbor SYS 1, FLT 48, ENG 9
CVE Barnes at San Francisco upgrading, 10 days to release
CVE Nassau at Pearl Harbor SYS 16, 4 days to release
CVE Copahee at Pearl Harbor SYS 13, FLT 30, ENG 8, 20 days to release
CVE Suwanee at Rockhampton
CVE Prince William at Melbourne
CVE Sangamon nearing Sydney SYS 18 FLT 63

My CVEs were damaged quite awhile ago, and I was lucky to get them from Milne Bay to Australia without losing any. I placed them in Australian ports to repair SYS damage while more important repairs and upgrades to fleet carriers occurred at Sydney. With Hornet about to leave Sydney, Sangamon will be arriving and starting lengthy repairs. I'm not going to be using the CVEs until I have more than a few of them to keep together. Also, some CVEs will be able to upgrade.

The map shows my divisional commitments to potential targets. The number in parentheses is the current prep level for that target. I'm not committed to any or all of these targets at the moment, but I'm preparing for all of them. This map only shows my infantry divisions. There are many other units prepping also.

My current preparations are probably not enough to take Taberfane or Koepang outright. Taberfane has an division there, and Koepang has over 30,000 men. It could have the equivalent of 2 divisions. I may decide to bypass Koepang initially.

First on the agenda will be Lautern and Dili, as well as the dot base Wetar to the north, and the dot base between Lautern and Babar. With KB sitting right there by Ambon, a big battle looks likely. Hornet has 2 more days to repair at Sydney, then about a week to get to the area. Then we go.

If I were to capture all of these targets, attacking initially on a broad front rather than a narrow deeper strike, I would then be pressuring more points than the enemy can prepare for. Java would be right there, Borneo and Celebes within range also, or a jump to Ambon and beyond. I have to say, Soerbaja would be a very nice place to be before the end of 1943.

[jwolf]

The Japanese will certainly fight every step of the way, as that offensive through Timor will threaten most or all of the DEI oil. Should be a lot of fireworks for your fans. [8D]

[apbarog]

20 May 43

KV Cyclamen, escorting LSTs leaving Babar for Darwin, attacks 2 enemy subs. One is probably sunk.

My fighter sweeps of Dili did very poorly, and very well. F6Fs sweep first, at 10,000 feet, and find Tojos on high CAP. Many Hellcats are lost, for a few Tojos downed. The Tojos are apparently manned by elite pilots. But then an elite P-38 squadron sweeps at 20,000 feet, and the Tojos don't have a chance. Total losses for the sweeps are 26 Tojos, 13 F6Fs, and 0 P-38s. It appears that I should keep the Hellcats for CAP and escort. Well-rested elite P-38s are awesome for sweeps.

KB moves north some, and there's a bunch of enemy task forces looking for subs nearby. US carriers will move to Darwin, having no real mission until Hornet arrives. I may come up with something interesting for the carriers, having about 10 days until they will be needed.

CV Victorious, upgraded nicely with AAA, will leave San Francisco and head to Pearl Harbor.

Some bits of interesting SigInt today. A fragment of the 48th Division is at Sorong. I recently got info that this division was planning for Timoeka. Also, the 8th Division/B is at Boela, which I knew, but today it said that 1/8 Div/B was at Boela. Now a fragment.

[apbarog]

21 May 43

Lots of action today.

Sub Snook sinks an xAKL west of Nagasaki.

DE Arrow damages RO-34 near Taberfane.

Northeast of Ambon, sub Drum spots a carrier task force, fires 6 torpedoes at CV Kaga, but all miss.

US destroyers damage RO-104 near Babar. Probably not enough to sink her.

US 43rd Infantry Division/C invades an unoccupied Finschhafen. Unloading begins.

Finally, I've spotted a big tanker convoy. Sub Tautog spots lots of tankers near Puerto Princesa, fires 4 torpedoes at big tanker Nisshin Maru #2, and gets one hit. The tanker is not loaded, and probably won't sink. Looks like a tanker route from northern Borneo towards Manila. I'm just starting to send subs into this area, coming from Darwin.

With daylight comes a major enemy air effort at Lae and Finschhafen.

First 36 Oscars sweep Lae, finding 16 Kittyhawks and 15 P-40Ks. The defenders do very well, downing about 12 Oscars while losing 2 Warhawks.

Then 10 Tojos sweep Lae, finding just 22 Allied fighters. Losses are light for both sides.

Then 26 Vals escorted by 45 Zeros arrive, with 13 Allied fighters on CAP. About 6 Zeros are lost, and fortunately for me, the Vals target a YMS at Lae. The minesweeper is lost.

Next, even more sweepers. 32 Tonys find just 8 Allied fighters. 4 Allied fighters are downed.

13 Nells and 26 Zeros from Rabaul arrive, with 13 Allied fighters still on CAP. Some Zeros are downed. The Nells target cruisers Chester and Houston, and destroyer O-Brien, and miss all of them.

At Finschhafen, it was unfortunate that I decided to invade today. I relied on ranged CAP from Lae, and that had been whittled down to nothing by this point. I post the results to give proper credit to my opponent.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Finschhafen at 100,126

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 23
A6M3 Zero x 8
G4M1 Betty x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
xAP Robert Morris, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAP Peter H. Burnett
xAP Leland Stanford, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
2719 casualties reported
Squads: 29 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 166 destroyed, 63 disabled
Engineers: 11 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 96 (95 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 45 (44 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Then another strike at Lae.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Lae at 99,126

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 90 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 33 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 38
A6M3a Zero x 13
B5N2 Kate x 8
D3A2 Val x 25

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk III x 2
P-40K Warhawk x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
xAK Jalarashmi, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CA Houston
xAK Jalaratna, Bomb hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Stawell, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Chester

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 28 (4 destroyed, 24 disabled)

This is followed by another Betty strike that targets the cruisers, and misses again.

18 Vals then fly to Salamaua to target another YMS, which is sunk. Good luck for me.

Next, 4 Lilys are thrown into the attack, but they miss cruiser Chester.

15 Kates show up, and get one torpedo hit on Chester. SYS 27, FLT 40, ENG 19

More Kates miss Chester.

Now even Sallys arrive, but all miss cruiser Houston.

Then Helens miss one of the remaining xAPs at Finschhafen.


At Tarawa, 25 P-40Es sweep, finding 9 Rufes and 1 Zero on CAP. A bunch of Rufes and a Zero are downed without loss.

Total air losses for the day are 19 Oscars, 19 Zeros, 4 Kates, 4 Rufes, 2 Lilys, 2 Tojos, while I lose 7 Kittyhawks and 5 P-40Ks.

It was a good day for Walker, but it could have been much worse for me. Just yesterday, I finished loading a whole infantry division at Lae. It looks like a lot of the support for the third of a division unloading at Finschhafen was lost. These troops will take the unoccupied base today, and garrison it. No rush to rebuild it. Chester should survive unless a sub finds it.

Today everything will leave Lae and head for safety.

On the other side of New Guinea, KB has moved east and is near Sorong now. What is it doing? Maybe just drifting around, maybe something else. I've seen bits of SigInt that say that a Timoeka invasion could be coming. I could see Walker moving KB down the eastern side of New Guinea to support a landing at Timoeka from relative safety. I'm sending multiple subs over in that area to intercept. US carriers refuel at Darwin and start to head toward Timoeka. I can make an invasion there very costly. US cruisers move from Gove to support.

I'm running 4 Mahan class destroyers into Kendari at high speed. There are lots of task forces here. This is a risky move. Could be mines, could be lots of combat ships. I did get SigInt today that CV Hiyo is moving to Kendari. I don't know if this carrier is already with KB. I like to very occasionally do something risky like this to keep Walker guessing. I don't know if I really have any effect, but it seems to help to reinforce his defensiveness from time to time.

In the air, I send 3 elite P-38 squadrons to sweep Koepang. Another P-38 squadron will sweep Boela. Bombers will hit lots of targets, including the Manokwari, southeast of Sorong, which may have fighters guarding KB should KB move this way.

A fun day. Not a good one for our side of things, but not terrible considering a surprise maximum enemy air effort at Lae. I really expected this kind of air use a long time ago. I've been moving units in and out of Lae for quite awhile. I'm just finishing the garrisoning now.

[apbarog]

22 May 43

Sub Gudgeon spots an unescorted ACM at the entrance to Eniwetok. 2 torpedoes miss. Don't know if the ACM is coming or going.

Destroyers Preston, Case, Drayton, and Mahan make a high speed run into Kendari. There are several encounters there. First they run into destroyers Yunagi and Nokaze, with just a few AA hits on a couple of the US destroyers. Then they run into 3 decent sized patrol boats, sinking them with many hits, using up a lot of ammo. Then they encounter E boats W-7 and W-19, sinking both with lots of ammo used. Next, a task force with 2 xAKs, 2 PBs, and a destroyer is encountered, but the enemy evades immediately and escapes. Finally, they run into Yunagi and Nokaze again. Unfortunately, the US ships are low on ammo and the Japanese ships are not. Destroyers Preston and Case take moderate damage, as does Yunagi. The US ships flee back toward Darwin, using too much fuel to make it back to Darwin. They will rendezvous with an AO tomorrow.

Back on New Guinea, 9 Kates find a tiny minesweeper at Salamaua and sink it. P-40Ks tangled with the escorting Zeros, downing about 4.

Lots of bombers hit Taberfane's airfield. Some hit Dobo. Both are reported with damage over 50.

Manokwari, southeast of Sorong, on the east coast of New Guinea, is hit by heavy bombers. Damage is light to moderate. KB didn't come this way, so it doesn't look like a Timoeka invasion is imminent.

3 P-38 squadrons sweep Koepang. 56 Ki-43-IIbs and 14 Tonys are on CAP. Some P-38s are lost, most with the first sweep, but many enemy planes are downed. Walker lamented in his email that I have so many P-38s to use. I have 4 filled out squadrons right now. What he doesn't know is that 2 or 3 of those were shipped from India, allowing me to concentrate them now. They are excellent sweepers with elite pilots, but they repair more slowly, and the replacement pool is low.

I also did an extremely long range sweep with P-38s, from Merauke to Boela. This was wasteful. They downed 5 Oscars, for no loss, except that 6 were OPs losses on the way home. Lesson learned.

For the day, losses were 32 Oscar IIbs, 6 Tonys, 5 Oscar IIas, and 5 Zeros. I lost 20 P-38s. With a pool of only about 20 P-38s available, this is obviously not sustainable. But I'm happy to have discouraged Walker. I'll try to use the P-38s at more decisive moments. As I'm building up to invading Timor, this qualifies.

Yesterday, KB was near Sorong and I thought that maybe it was heading down the east coast to cover a landing at Timoeka. During the night phase, I spotted several task forces heading northeast from there toward Babeldaop. KB is undoubtedly heading there. The question I ask is why. It has been wandering around Boela, Ambon, and Kendari, moving here and there, hugging friendly airbases like Walker likes to do. Now it's making a decisive move to Babeldaop.

My thinking is that he may refuel there and then go to the Solomons. Walker may have been encouraged by his air strikes yesterday. I haven't been showing much air power there. Maybe he could counter-invade somewhere on New Guinea. He must have figured out that I'm pulling divisions out. He may want to try to rescue his isolated units there. He may also sense that he can cut off the gap between New Guinea and Australia with KB. I'm obviously depending on that route for all of my operations in northern Australia.

I'm not sure I would even send my carriers if he comes that way. I may just load up my airbases. If KB stays away from Timor, I can accelerate my operations there. Today, I start loading up troops for Dili at Normanton. I need a few days for APAs to get back to Darwin. Then I start loading up for Lautern. With no KB, I don't think it will be too difficult to land. Lautern will be taken. I won't be landing enough to take Dili, but I will contest it, and wait for troops to walk from Lautern. Lautern's base will then be built up as quickly as possible. As will Dili's, after it falls. I don't know if I will go after Koepang yet or just shut it down.

Today, US carriers will jump west, hoping to hit some shipping spotted at Koepang. The fighter CAP there has been reduced by the P-38s, and another P-38 sweep will occur today.

Engineers are unloading at Selaroe, a dot base adjacent to Saumlaki. As for airbases, the more the merrier.

I moved SBDs to Babar, and they hope to hit shipping at Boela. Heavies will hit Boela's airfield and port.

[Macclan5]

Multiple TFs heading to Babeldaop....why is the KB moving there ?

Great question. [;)]

Despite Kendari being a fine blocking position in the DEI the KB can not reside there for the long term. Its the middle of no where ?

1) Supply / fuel usage must be diverting assets from primary resource centers that are destined for the home islands. By 1943 a competent IJN player will be stock piling madly but at the end of the day the KB can't sit and wait forever to "block secure incremental gains in the theater". You are managing your gains very adroitly.

He will have to trust to Forts and Land based air to try to make you pay a very high price.

I assume at this point the KB option really has two long term strategic uses. Experienced Japanese players can certainly jump in and opine or correct me...

1) Purely defensive ?

Then shift west to protect and block any incursions on SOC between Palembang/Singapore and Home Islands. That is the heart of the economic engine. With LBA in support the KB in 43 in the south China Sea represents "a bridge too far for the Allies". Its also well positioned to defend the Phillipines...strike at any breakouts in Burma...etc

2) "Force in being"

Babeldaop is a great position long term. It allows him to defend the Central Pacific and strike to DEI or Bismark Sea or Central Pacific or back to mainline China or up to the Kurlies.. .....

Since you are having success in the Solomans - look out for a counter punch supported by a KB strike ...

INHO ...in my humble opinion. [8D]

[jwolf]

Sheer speculation: is it possible the KB has to go to a big base (like Babeldaob) to replenish or upgrade some air groups?

If he does use his carriers in the Solomons he can cause some disruption -- maybe even a counter-invasion somewhere? But the cost for the Japanese would be high as Timor etc would be left pretty much up for grabs.