Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 1st[/font]
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Nothing to report but a small boon in China. Through some miracle the defenders outside Kienko manage to get enough supply in.

Ground combat at 79,41 (near Kienko)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 37065 troops, 466 guns, 64 vehicles, Assault Value = 917

Defending force 26647 troops, 104 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 895

Japanese adjusted assault: 355

Allied adjusted defense: 799

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4093 casualties reported
Squads: 55 destroyed, 334 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 40 disabled

Allied ground losses:
769 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 50 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
36th Division
39th Division
41st Division
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
1st Mortar Battalion
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
24th Chinese Corps
60th Chinese Corps
2nd War Area

[zuluhour]

I like which way he's going. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

I like which way he's going. [:)]

Its a wet dream of mine to have him move into Calcutta and then close the hex side behind him... [:)]

[JocMeister]

PS. No turn until Saturday due to RL commitment from both Jeff and I.

Christmas party at work tomorrow!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 2nd 1942[/font]
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I hope to catch up a little on the AAR today and tomorrow but I´m alone with the kids until Sunday evening. I had a very small allied victory in the IO last turn. Some good VPs! [:)]

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NORPAC
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2 TFs pop up at Allford bay. I´m wary of another bombardment though so I won´t pull the trigger on this one. Got a SIGINT report of "heavy radio traffic" just a few hexes from Coal Harbor. Could it be that KB has returned?

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SOPAC
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The big TF previously hit with a 2/2 DL exits the map. I have another big TF incoming with loads of engineers. This one is covered by North Carolina and Wasp.

The engineers will start working on bases in New Caledonia as well as bases on NE OZ. Cruisers will start patrolling more aggressively down here. Still no sign of KB.

Another CAT squadron arrived at Suva but I´m dangerously low on planes (only 12 in the reserve) and most squadrons are below 50% strength.

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India
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A good day here at Chittagong. What was mostly intended as a CAP trap instead turned into a small naval battle. I had a CL force moving in under heavy CAP south of Calcutta. But instead of being attacked they remained undetected. So I sent them in to Chittagong the following turn. Jeff was covering what looks like a supply TF with several DD squadrons.

The Japanese DDs fought very well but wern´t able to keep the British ships from getting to the cargo ships.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Chittagong at 55,41, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Chosa Maru, Shell hits 9, heavy fires
PB Kyo Maru #8, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Yamahagi Maru #3, Shell hits 26, and is sunk
SC Ch 22, Shell hits 2, on fire
xAK Taigen Maru, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Ryuzan Maru, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Tamahoko Maru, Shell hits 2
xAK Josho Maru, Shell hits 2, heavy fires
xAK Meisho Maru, Shell hits 2
xAK Midori Maru
xAK Toyu Maru, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Hobart
CL Enterprise
CL Dauntless, Shell hits 1
DD Arrow, on fire
DD Decoy
DD Hotspur

Night Time Surface Combat, near Chittagong at 55,41, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Chosa Maru, Shell hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
PB Kyo Maru #8, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC Ch 22, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Taigen Maru, and is sunk
xAK Ryuzan Maru, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
xAK Tamahoko Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Josho Maru, Shell hits 15, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Meisho Maru, Shell hits 19, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Midori Maru, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Hobart
CL Enterprise
CL Dauntless
DD Arrow, heavy fires
DD Decoy
DD Hotspur

A good haul of 72 VPs! [&o]

I don´t think any Japanese DDs will sink and I lost the Fortune and will probably lose the Arrow too. Still a very good VP exchange for the Allies today! [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Tojo Arrives![/font]
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Been waiting for a while for it to show up. On the 2nd of July it did over Vancouver. And it did gloriously horrible against a big P40 CAP! [&o][&o]

Morning Air attack on Vancouver , at 209,49

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 13 NM, estimated altitude 25,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 14

Allied aircraft
P-40E Warhawk x 84

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Morning Air attack on Vancouver , at 209,49

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 14

Allied aircraft
P-40E Warhawk x 75

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed

19 Tojos are shot down for very few own losses. Sadly though these sweeps are followed up by some Zeroes which absolutely devastate my worn out CAP. Still a good day overall. Sadly I can´t afford too many of these per month...

[zuluhour]

The "K" model will help soon! and in abundance.
I think the P38 will arrive very soon as well, August for both?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

The "K" model will help soon! and in abundance.
I think the P38 will arrive very soon as well, August for both?

P38F in August but I´ll have to wait until September for the "K".

The P38s won´t help me as much in this game as they usually do. With PDU OFF NO unrestricted squadrons upgrade to the F model! Only 2 WC restricted squadrons do.

When the G model arrives in October I have 2 unrestricted squadrons able to use it though!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Strategic situation[/font]
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Half of 42 has passed and I think I´m in pretty decent shape. VP ratio seems to have stabilized around 3.5 lately. Jeff will get a big influx of VPs from China shortly but I hope I can keep up. After all I only have to gain 1 VP for each of his 4.

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NORPAC
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Japanese strat bombing efforts seems to have quieted down lately. If SIGINT is to be believed most (all?) of the Japanese forces used to capture PH and the Alaskan bases are still there. This is both a blessing and a curse. Its a blessing because he is not actively using them to capture something else. But its a curse since it means I will have to devote a lot of allied forces to cover Canada and the WC.

There are substantial forces currently tied up in the defense.
-25th ID (still not full TOE)
-2 RGTs of the 37th ID
-22nd Marine Regiment
-3rd USMC ID
-40th ID (a yellow restricted ID I usually buy out)

All the allied 4Es are also currently on the WC together with most of the Seventh USAAF (250+ fighters). So a lot of forces usually available for the autumn operations are now stuck in Canada and the WC. I´ve tried to make up for the loss by buying out a lot of the OZ IDs instead. TOE wise though those IDs are pretty poor although of decent EXP/MRL.

About 1/3rd of the US sub fleet is also stationed here. Currently have no surface assets in place on the WC. The BB fleet is sitting on the EC.

I´m also lagging behind on airfield expansion here as the engineers have been building forts instead. While not many VPs every missed VP is a bad thing for the allies.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Strategic situation (SOPAC)[/font]
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Most of the USN is operating down here besides the old BBs. Generally speaking I´ve shifted focus from a mainland defense of OZ and started pushing out a bit. Noumea is turning into a cornerstone of the defense but I´ve not expanded the port and airfield yet. No need to draw attention here if I can avoid it. But fort have just passed 6 and two divisions are defending the place.

The 2nd Marines are digging in at Suva but I´ll switch their prepp to something offensively eventually. Americal and 27th ID are on mainland OZ but have been prepping offensively for the last 2 months. They are both prepping for PM together with some 100 tanks but I need to expand my bases in NE OZ before I can think about actually landing.

In the coming 2 weeks I´ll be reinforcing Luganville with some infantry and engineers. There has been no sign of Japanese ground activity here. No bases expanded and the biggest unit I´ve seen down here is a battalion which landed on Ndeni.

I could probably move more offensively here but I´m in no rush. Don´t want to land somewhere just to have Jeff plonk down 4 IDs there 3 months later.

There are no major reinforcement slated to go here for the rest of 42 besides BFs and engineers.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Strategic situation (India)[/font]
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Very interesting situation. Jeff made a very weak incursion here. He doesn´t have enough to be a serious threat and I don´t have enough to throw him out.

A big chunk of the Japanese air force is operating here making it hard for me to get any naval assets into play. Allied strength will increase dramatically here over the next month. The 32nd US ID just arrived in Bombay. The 2nd British ID will leave Aden in 5 days and the 1st US Marines will arrive in CT in just 10 days together with a US tank battalion. A slew of engineers are also coming in over the coming months.

First 4E squadrons will arrive in about 30 days.

Japanese reinforcements are coming though. Jeff has soon cleared Luzon and I would be VERY surprised if those troops didn´t end up in India.

I have a lot of Allied troops cut off at Ledo and I hope to rescue them before they are overrun. Interestingly enough supply seems to get to them (from China?) and forts are approaching 4.

Allied fleet has pulled back to refit and upgrade.

[JocMeister]

Found this in a thread in the tech support forum.

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If the base is captured, the shipyard that built the ship is lost and the ship will never be built.

Bill

This I did NOT know! Pretty scare if you would lose a place like LA or Portland. [X(]

Does the Jap player get VPs for those ships as well?

[paullus99]

I believe they do - but I need to go back and check again.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Found this in a thread in the tech support forum.

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If the base is captured, the shipyard that built the ship is lost and the ship will never be built.

Bill

This I did NOT know! Pretty scare if you would lose a place like LA or Portland. [X(]

Does the Jap player get VPs for those ships as well?

You get partial VPs for ships cancelled or "destroyed while building". I am not sure of the ratio, but it seems to me that the closer to completion date for the ship the more points you get.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Found this in a thread in the tech support forum.

ORIGINAL: wdolson

If the base is captured, the shipyard that built the ship is lost and the ship will never be built.

Bill

This I did NOT know! Pretty scare if you would lose a place like LA or Portland. [X(]

Does the Jap player get VPs for those ships as well?

Playing the Downfall scenario, the Allies get VPs for capturing shipyards where Japanese ships are under construction.

[JocMeister]

[X(][X(][X(]

I really hope Jeff doesn´t know about this!

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I really hope Jeff doesn´t know about this!

If you are getting any SIGINT of troops planning for WC bases, then it would be prudent to conclude he does. Then you have to ask yourself what the VP ramifications of a WC invasion are compared to more conventional strategies? Would he gain a better than 4:1 VP ratio from such an operation? If so, then you need to plan accordingly to reduce the ratio to below 4:1.

One obvious precaution is to delay sending all of the construction units arriving in 1942 into the Pacific and use them to beef up fortifications to at least Lvl 6 at all coastal bases, and Lvl 9 at bases with key industrial significance. You've got enough supplies to make it happen.

[JocMeister]

Nothing on SIGINT for the WC. Not a single unit. But as far as I can tell (from SIGINT) his divisions are still in NORPAC.

I already have SF, Seattle, Vancouver LA, SD and Prince Rupert pretty heavily fortified (6+ forts). But I probably should step up my efforts a bit after reading this. I havn´t sent away the restricted WC engineers that arrived so they are getting some work done. But I should probably do as you suggest and leave some of the unrestricted ones to help out.

[Lokasenna]

IMO, with forts 6 at Noumea... you don't need to keep building them. Save your supplies. Not usually a sentence you see as the Allies, but it's hard enough for you to ship assets in, why make it harder by increasing the need?

I'd consider starting to build the airfield up a bit. At least to level 5, so that you can handle B-17s normally. Then maybe the port after that... if you know you're going to use the base, then there's no reason not to build it up now. With his force allocations as they are in India and NORPAC, there's no way he can come take a Forts 6 Noumea from you. So build it up. Start threatening places later this year.

Another consideration is Noumea's VP multiplier for you [;)]. You may want that come 1/1/1943.

[poodlebrain]

The more I look at this matter the more convinced I am that any Japanese invasion would have to be an attempted knock out blow aimed at achieving an autovictory. There is no real possibility of the forces committed surviving in the long-term, and withdrawing them would not be practical from a fuel use perspective. So any invasion is a one way mission resulting in Japanese victory or ultimate defeat since recovering from the losses would be impossible. Think of it as early kamikaze missions with land units. The VPs committed to the missions are as good as lost, it is the VPs that they can gain that will determine success or failure. The window of opportunity for such a knock out punch is pretty narrow. So it shouldn't be too difficult to plan your defense.

Can a Japanese invasion possibly succeed without capturing a port? It's not likely that he can secure the port of any of the critical bases with a direct assault landing. The existing coastal defense artillery would have a field day with the invasion fleet traveling at AP and AK speeds, and the Japanese simply do not have the forces to suppress the coastal defenses. The disruption to his LCUs would make a successful attack unlikely. So he will probably have to land at an adjacent base, without fixed coastal defenses, and secure the port before advancing to one of the critical bases. Looking at the geography and terrain, it would be difficult or impossible, to accomplish this anywhere except Los Angeles or San Diego. Los Angeles looks like a tougher nut to crack based on its terrain defensive value. So I would make defending San Diego my primary focus. Looking back, you already have 3ID at San Diego. It shouldn't take much more to get an adjusted AV of better than 3,500 for the defense.

What would it take in terms of forces for the Japanese to capture San Diego? A whole lot, in fact just about everything he has now and everything he can scrape together. That means just about everything that can sail to transport LCUs and supply. Protecting that much shipping will limit the role of the KB and surface combatants. Your naval forces should be able to pick and choose battles. His transports withdrawing from the assault landings should be especially vulnerable since they will be without CAP with the KB having to protect the troops on the ground. Conserving PT boats so you can create several squadrons for harassment purposes is an obvious ploy. Getting your carriers between the invasion force and Hawaii is another no-brainer. So having a few AO ready to allow them to patrol outside the reach of Hawaiian LBA and far enough from the WC that the KB would have to abandon covering the invasion forces makes sense. If you can get them to San Francisco, or one of the other nearby ports, you would be able to flank him from a relatively safe location. It would be nice to get the bulk of your surface combatants to San Diego and Los Angeles to give the KB something to worry about other than just supporting the land campaign.

You should hope for a Japanese invasion of the WC at this point. It is at best a long shot proposition for him, and a golden opportunity for you.