Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[Capt. Harlock]

Luzon, on the other hand, is harmless in your rear. About the only thing Dan can do is slowly evacuate units, but even then, most of the units are stuck regardless. They can't get out, they can't hurt me. The only problem is I have to bomb and contain Luzon for a long time,

The one thing you have to worry about is 4E bombers flying out of Clark. That's the biggest reason that the Japanese invaded: they could not allow the disruption of their sea lanes.

[SuluSea]

There are alot of Dutch units in the bush. All the units on Borneo, for who knows what reason, fled to the interior. Anyone know why? Won't they just starve there over time?

 Yes they will die off no need to chase them, bombing them on occasion will use supply and hasten the process.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I have almost every division in Manchukuo and Home Islands prepped for a target in India; as I need them, I am buying them out.

The allies will then be strongly suspecting India as your target. Their intel is just too good. They'll know about the prep on a lot of units.

[Capt. Harlock]

Their intel is just too good. They'll know about the prep on a lot of units.

But is that still true in Admiral's Edition?

[funkpapa]

yes

[Lomri]

There is a dot base in the middle of Borneo that allied LCU's will retreat towards - well at least the southern/southwest ones. Pretty sure that is what you are observing. If the allies pull pieces of these units to rebuild, but the parent retreats and hangs out in the bush, it delays the rebuilding of those units. Silver lining for you.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock
The one thing you have to worry about is 4E bombers flying out of Clark. That's the biggest reason that the Japanese invaded: they could not allow the disruption of their sea lanes.

Yes, and No. He could move bombers to Clark, but what would they bomb? Keep in mind too, I am bombing Clark or Bataan every day myself to burn supplies. Mostly, I am bombing Bataan because I see more SUPPLY HITS there it seems, but if he launches from Clark, I can quickly switch back, and destroy any damaged planes there before they can flee back to Australia.

He should be running low on Supplies too, so using Bombers would burn some precious supplies, and might actually help me.

PAXMONDO: To your point on Intel....I don't disagree. I have done a few things to mitigate that:

1. I initially prepped all Manchukuo Divisions for Australian and Indian targets. That should have created conflicted noise, which would have discounted all intel
2. I only LATELY switched everyone to India. At some point you have to, because the alternative is to invade with no preps; bad idea. At this point, I am about 5 days away from landing, so pretty soon he'll know anyway.

Combat Report, Feb 24-28, 1942:

The first week after Singapore fell was spent basically collecting ships and troops at Singapore. I believe KB and friends made it there undetected; I took pains to make sure all Dutch bases that could support a flying boat were taken.

5 Divisions are ticketed for the initial wave on Ceylon, with 1 more fully-prepped for Colombo about a week or two behind. The initial battle plan:

COLOMBO: 3 Divisions, plus tanks and HQ, are landing here
TRINCOMALEE: 1 Division here
JAFFNA: 1 Division

I have no idea what the Allies dispositions are on Ceylon; without that knowledge, I am landing in 3 places. One of them at least is bound to be ungarrisoned; I need a base to station AOs and AKEs at to support the fleet.

I have 2-3 More divisions that are prepping for Chittagong/Diamond Harbor, but if I get stuck on Ceylon are close at hand. I don't want to break those preps and give up on a NE India landing, but that's better than stranding an Army on Ceylon. Still, I don't expect more than 500AV or so on Ceylon, and most of it not as experienced as my guys.

I will post a more detailed OOB as I get closer to landing.

The Naval Support is most of the fleet; all CVs, 6 BBs, 10 CAs, and plenty of other stuff. I had the NAGATOS off the coast of Australia to add to the illusion that my landings there are real, FUSO supported the Darwin landing, and YAMASHIRO is finishing repairs. I will send FUSO/YAMA to the Indian Ocean shortly.

Other News:

Quiet.....I am just about at the gates of Soerbaya, which I expect to fall pretty quickly. The rest of the DEI is pretty much cleared.

I am landing small forces on Mindanao now; first, to take Zamboanga, the only supply source there, and then to press Cagayan airbase and shut that down.

Other than that, everything else is ticketed for Waves 2 and 3 in India.

[Mistmatz]

Tension mounting, do I hear rolling drums? [;)]

Good luck with your plans.

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, Mar 1-2, 1942:

INVASION FLEET: Most of the ships are just approaching the Andaman chain, and have not been sighted as of yet. Dan has had picket ships out in other places, so we might trip over a Picket soon. With only 3-4 days from landing, it's too late for Dan to do much about it.

JAVA: First attack on Soerbaya is 1-2 and drops the forts, so I think this base will fall after a few days.

"Retire" is your friend: I hadn't seen a raiding TF until yesterday, when 4 DDs parked themselves off Paramushiro Jima! So, I moved a DB unit there on the chance Dan didn't notice. He didn't, 3 DDs were sunk.

That might be it for these raiding TFs; the last 3 forays have resulted in lost modern USN DDs, with no IJN losses. He may take solace in that I have to detail air units to protect the Kuriles, except that I used the Yokosuka Val unit anyway, which is perm restricted to the Home Islands. It's a training unit, but the pilots were in the 50s; good enough to hit non-aircovered DDs.

Carriers: Still no sign of the Allied CVs. I predict I'll get a sighting soon, as either a) they will attack my landings around India, or b) they will attack something else, knowing KB is otherwise indisposed.

Dan is an opportunist, so I'm sure he'll do something to take the pressure off India.

[Nemo121]

Yes, and as an opportunist and much more of a tactical and somewhat operational level thinker than a strategic one he is unlikely to fit his reactions into an overall strategic goal. This means you can ignore most of his reactions pretty safely and concentrate on the small number which are strategically significant ( or you can just be all attritionist and try to destroy as much of his reacting forces as possible ).

The key though is that just because he reacts doesn't mean you need to counter-react.

[JohnDillworth]

Even if he has all his carriers around he can't stand up to the KB at this point in the game. Allies have trouble filling out their squadrons, and frankly, their torpedo bombers are useless (well, maybe not the Brits). Even with all forces committed you will have more left than he will. It's a wash on shipyards. Allies may have them, but the ships in them would be sitting ducks. You are still in the "run wild" phase as some admiral once said.
Banzai!

[Nemo121]

Aye but he'd be an idiot to try to face up to KB with his CVs. No, a far better use for them would be to raid your SLOCs far from your CVs destroying convoys loaded with troops and supplies. Sinking 100,000 tons of supplies accompanying the 2nd wave of troop landings and mauling a couple of divisions of troops would be enough to force the landings to fail.

Remember KB is NOT essential to winning a ground war in India. Troops and, more importantly, supplies ARE. If Canoerebel is smart he'll realise this and hit the SLOCs while KB is occupied at the spearhead. It is lower risk and higher reward.

My assessment, however, is that Canoerebel won't make such a strategic assessment and will seek to bring the IJN surface combat elements to battle instead of focussing on their much more strategically important supply echelon. With that said though he';ll try to avoid the CVs of KB if at all possible. He's not that deep IMO but neither is he foolish.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Aye but he'd be an idiot to try to face up to KB with his CVs. No, a far better use for them would be to raid your SLOCs far from your CVs destroying convoys loaded with troops and supplies. Sinking 100,000 tons of supplies accompanying the 2nd wave of troop landings and mauling a couple of divisions of troops would be enough to force the landings to fail.

Remember KB is NOT essential to winning a ground war in India. Troops and, more importantly, supplies ARE. If Canoerebel is smart he'll realise this and hit the SLOCs while KB is occupied at the spearhead. It is lower risk and higher reward.

My assessment, however, is that Canoerebel won't make such a strategic assessment and will seek to bring the IJN surface combat elements to battle instead of focussing on their much more strategically important supply echelon. With that said though he';ll try to avoid the CVs of KB if at all possible. He's not that deep IMO but neither is he foolish.

I agree with that assessment; the supply train is the most important, though I'm trying to keep everyone together enough that going after the supplies is potentially risking a full-on encounter with KB and Friends (meaning all CVLs I have), which would be a disaster for the USN, more than likely.

I am fanning out a picket line to provide an early warning system against a CV incursion between Sabang and Ceylon, the most likely spot to attack my supplies. I will probably run supplies close to the Indian coast; at this point, the RAF doesn't have much in the way of ship-killing assets.

I would like to set-up enough aircover along the coastline to withdraw KB completely from the Indian Ocean, and rely solely on LBA.

Any attack or landing by the Allies at this stage has to be considered an opportunity for Japan, as much or more than a problem.

Dan has carefully avoided major combat so far, so I would really like a chance to attrite the Allies on my terms, which I really haven't had yet.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Aye but he'd be an idiot to try to face up to KB with his CVs. No, a far better use for them would be to raid your SLOCs far from your CVs destroying convoys loaded with troops and supplies. Sinking 100,000 tons of supplies accompanying the 2nd wave of troop landings and mauling a couple of divisions of troops would be enough to force the landings to fail.

Remember KB is NOT essential to winning a ground war in India. Troops and, more importantly, supplies ARE. If Canoerebel is smart he'll realise this and hit the SLOCs while KB is occupied at the spearhead. It is lower risk and higher reward.

My assessment, however, is that Canoerebel won't make such a strategic assessment and will seek to bring the IJN surface combat elements to battle instead of focussing on their much more strategically important supply echelon. With that said though he';ll try to avoid the CVs of KB if at all possible. He's not that deep IMO but neither is he foolish.

While I agree with this in theory, I think that execution is somewhat more problematic.

Of course, application of an intact carrier air action group against a soft underbelly of LCUs and supply ships is every AFB and JFB's wet dream. The problem is *finding* this mystical SLOC, which is a transient and mobile line.

A KB fishing expedition trying to find these SLOCs may find resistance-an LBA trap, submarine interdiction, a buttressed allied carrier fleet or maybe even an SCTF awaiting their engagement opportunity. Venturing into the opponent's back yard to try to surprise a supply or troop convoy is a high risk, high reward option. The risk of finding nothing worthwhile needs to be calculated too.

I also differ regarding the supposition that this is the only 'strategic' approach to the defense of India. One could argue that interdiction of LCUs on the high seas is an attempt to ameliorate a tactical issue, not a true strategic compass for the war.

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, Mar 3, 1942:

So far So good: We still seem undetected; most transports have cleared the Andaman islands, and will halt at a point approx. 12-13 hexes off Ceylon.

The curtain will go up the day after tommorow, with Port Raids on Colombo and Trincomalee from KB. I thought about not doing that to avoid using Missions and damaging aircraft with the USN CVs possibly in range. Understood, so we are playing it like this:

1. Not all KATES will carry TORPS; I plan to set alot on level bombing.
2. I figure to have a few days to repair damaged A/C before any CVs show up
3. I have every CV; I can afford some losses, and still have plenty to annihilate the Allied CVs

I would be surprised if major units are in either port, but it's worth a shot; maybe Dan is getting sloppy. If he did move the major units, I'll probably get a sub or two anyway.

Stay tuned, we should reveal all within a couple days.....

[JohnDillworth]

Not all KATES will carry TORPS; I plan to set alot on level bombing.

Kates rock as level bombers. Accuracy is uncanny
good luck

[Q-Ball]

Combat Report, Mar 4-5, 1942:

Ceylon: Dan clearly knows it's on; he must have snooped my CVs the day before, because daybreak saw lots of little ships fleeing to the West (well, North on the Map)

KB strikes sank a couple AKs and KVs, thankfully we expended only 24 torpedos. Allied planes sortied against KB, but not surprisingly didn't do well. Over 33 Hurris were shot down, vs. 4 Zeros, and the 6 Stringbags they were escorting prudently fled back to base.

I am taking a couple risks tommorow. I am splitting KB temporarily to cover the landings at Jaffna (18th Div plus Tanks), Trincomalee (6th Div), and Colombo (3 Divisions, HQ, Tanks). I am setting all Kates to BOMBS ONLY; gambling that tommorow I just see small ships I don't want to waste torps on. I am gambling that the USN CVs are not right nearby; if they are, I was really scooped on this invasion, and that won't be a good thing. But the most likely result is that I don't see any naval oppossition for awhile.

I still have no idea what's on Ceylon; I am already loading more troops just in case, though I hate to break preps for Chittagong. One division that is 100% prepped for Colombo is 2 weeks away via ship, and I have 2 more Regts prepped for Koggala as a 2nd wave. I need to get at least one base on Ceylon, to take pressure off KB and provide some aircover.

So, Dan knows what I am up to now.

Australia: No idea if I sold this as an objective; hopefully I did. I probably won't know for sure until this game is over.

I am suspending operations anywhere else at the moment, as Dan will know with 100% certainty that I won't have aircover for it.

Soerbaya: First attack there dropped the forts; another attack came off 1-2, but did kill alot of Combat Squads. I will rest, bring up another unit, and try again. All my units there are only 15% prepped or so, and the garrison is probably 100%; so each day we'll get stronger. I have revised the fall date to mid-March, which is acceptable given the forces I have committed (basically, 21st Div, plus various odds and ends)

[JohnDillworth]

Same post in both AAR's:
Boy I love 2 sided AAR's!!

[Alfred]

I have been looking at garrison requirements and whilst I expect Q-Ball has already undertaken this exercise, some of the readers of this AAR might not be aware of the ramifications. The garrison requirements are derived from the “stickied” planning map which is scenario 1 data, but AFAIK, there is no change to garrison requirements in scenario 2. The Imperial force data comes from the scenario 2 at start unrestricted command hierarchy and therefore does not fully account for the purchased units (2 divs, 2 tank regts, 1 bde, 1 regt plus an Air HQ).

Aggregate Japanese AV Garrison Requirements

Australia 1040
Burma 160
Canada 300
Ceylon 80
DEI 160
Hawaii 80
India 3380
Malaya 100
New Zealand 260
Philippines 340
Soviet Union 720
USA (continental) 1140

Unrestricted Japanese AV Forces

Command, At 7 December 41, Additional Received by 1 April 42
14th Army, 1164, 240
15th Army, 694, 0
16th Army, 1015, 0
21st Army, 0, 1694
25th Army, 1847, 0
Southern Army, 1440, 31
4th Fleet, 434, 724
Southeast Asia Fleet, 152, 287
Combined Fleet, 803, 68

Two observations immediately strike me.

(1) India and Ceylon combined account for 44.58% of all theoretical maximum garrison requirements.
(2) By 1 April 1942, the total unrestricted Japanese AV (excluding any purchased units and assuming campaign losses have been fully replenished) is 10,613. Thus, to fully garrison all of India and Ceylon immobilises 32.6% of the unrestricted AV. When you add in the garrison requirements for the already/soon to be conquered SRA (Burma, DEI, Malaya, Philippines), the immobilised garrison figure jumps to 39.76%. Further reducing the available field army is the need to maintain forces at key bases elsewhere.

Ramifications

The inevitable conclusion is that a successful conquest of India will, with one exception, destroy Japan’s capability to launch any significant land offensive. The exception is the use of the Manchukuo units against the Soviet Union.

By paying PPs, Q-Ball could release restricted units to march across borders to replace his immobilised unrestricted garrison units. This however would take a lot of time and in the intervening period the Allied position elsewhere should have been stabilised and able to defeat any Japanese offensive.

Japan is also going to be vulnerable to mid 1942 Allied offensives because Japan will not have mobile reserves. Basically, Japan will need to garrison India with the equivalent of the entire 14th, 15th, 16th Armies and Southeast Asia Fleet. Plus half of Southern Army would be required for the rest of the SRA.

Alfred

PS: My formatting has gone askance. Hopefully the two intended tables above make sense.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

PS: My formatting has gone askance. Hopefully the two intended tables above make sense.

Kind of a pain, but the forum doesn't like tabs or multiple spaces. If you need to align some things, use a mono-space font, then make a PDF or JPG, or take a screen capture into JPG.