More Dispatches from OKH: Q-ball (A) v Von Beanie (R) Rnd 2 v1.04

[Q-Ball]

Turn 21: First Turn of Snow

Our SNOW offensive got off to a fair start, causing 80,000 Soviet losses for 15,000 in return, and creating several smaller pockets.

Von Beanie's layered defenses prevent big pockets and breakthroughs, and I also need to keep the Panzers close at hand.

Next turn, if all these pockets hold (I think they will), I will liquidate the 14 units I have surrounded, and probably push just a little more for positioning. I don't want to leave Panzers in the open the last turn of Snow, because they'll suffer attrition losses, so I really need to wrap-up my attacks next turn.

If I can destroy 16-20 units and cause 250K Soviet losses, that will be a successful Snow campaign, and take the edge off Winter. I hope.....

[Q-Ball]

schmauser: I don't know that SUs take the same attrition as regular units. I started to wonder about this last winter. The units that attached directly to Mountain Divisions DEFINITELY did not suffer attrition, and checking a few more, they didn't appear to either.

I will investigate this again, not sure if it's WAD, or maybe my SUs were just taking replacements quickly so I didn't notice.

[Mynok]

I'm thinking maybe snow is the time to use the panzers to eliminate the pockets. They will be moving back to cities and rebuilding where the infantry will be out in the cold suffering.

[Schmauser]

I don't either and can't check since I am WITEless until I get a new computer.

I do know that attached SU's are counted for troop levels, guns and afv's on the unit counters including HQ's.

You might want to look at the FBD units too. They have very high manpower levels due to all the attached construction units.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 24: Winter Cometh

Snow Offensive Wrap-Up: The results were somewhat disappointing; we inflicted about 150K Soviet losses in return for 25K casualties. We destroyed a total of 10 Units; would have been more, but Von Beanie did a good job breaking pockets, so that in the end, I had to rout 6 units rather than pocket them. C'est la guerre!

We did inflict over 30 routs, so hopefully that disrupted him somewhat. I did that last game though where I got slaughtered, so I don't think it really does much.

Pre-Winter Sitrep:
See graphics below; pretty self-explainatory.

Here is my BLIZZARD strategy:

Turn 1: Withdraw one hex to new trenches, and present only every other hex to attack. We are going to pull back a hex a turn, except at the entrances to the CRIMEA; here, we are using the Romanian Mountain units to hopefully hold the line.

Here is my winter checklist, let me know if I missed anything:

1. LEADERS: I replaced my worst German leaders
2. PANZERS: Are all tucked away in cities
3. RESERVES: 17 German Infantry Divisions are sprinkled around the map in Blizzard-Safe Cities. Initially, I am using depleted ones; they are going to REFIT while they recover. I also have 10 Romanian Divisions in reserve. Both German Mountain Divisions are in reserve.
4. CHECKERBOARD: Limited front, pulled back a hex per turn
5. FORTS: I have constructed a line of forts 10 hexes to the rear of the front, and tried to construct some close to the front, but I can't fill 10 hexes with forts. I created FORTIFIED zones to help; 100% of them are picked-up now. None will be in the open.
6. EXCESS UNITS: 10 airbase units and extra Corps HQ (mostly Romanian) are back in the no-Blizzard Zone
7. TOWNS: All units, if possible, seek shelter in towns and cities. All close to the front occupied.
8. OREL BULGE: That Orel Bulge, where I almost made it to Voronezh? That's definitely being pulled back, probably a little faster than the flanks.

I'm probably screwed despite all this, but it's not for lack of understanding of how this works

[PeeDeeAitch]

Keep in mind that the Finns can attack over the "no move" line. Small help I know, but that slow down things a wee bit...in my game I have a nice row of empty hexes south of the that line where the Soviets dare not move.  Thos units east of Orel might lose as much as some of my guys did that were on the edge of supply.  By January they are unready.

[randallw]

Your worst German general would be taken by the Soviet player with no grumbling. [:'(]

[Klydon]

What are your plans with the Luftwaffe over the winter?

[Ketza]

I am no expert but keeping the Luftwaffe active seems to have helped me in the Blizzard.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: PeeDeeAitch

Keep in mind that the Finns can attack over the "no move" line. Small help I know, but that slow down things a wee bit...in my game I have a nice row of empty hexes south of the that line where the Soviets dare not move.  Thos units east of Orel might lose as much as some of my guys did that were on the edge of supply.  By January they are unready.

I, and Von Beanie, are well aware of this. There are only 3 hexes between Lake Ilmen and the No-Move line; Von Beanie attacked in this corridor, and angry Finns constantly routed units on his flank. For this reason, he gave up on that approach.

I have 2 Finnish Divisions up there poised for this purpose.

LUFTWAFFE: Most of the airbases I have moved are ARMY airbases, which only have Recon Planes. I don't really need tons of recon IMO, the Russians are attacking, not much I can do about it. I anticipate disbanding most of theses for replacements in the spring.

I also sent back 3 LW Airbases, by sending planes to RESERVE. I plan to keep the Ju-52s in reserve for now (I can't see needing them), and use alot of fighters.

The Romanian Airforce, I sent alot of units to RESERVE, ones that were very short-handed. Alot of Romanian Bomber units don't get replacements, and end up very depleted, because they use Polish or French A/C. I am down to only 2 Romanian Airbases at the front, they are both piled-high with the best RUM units. I will bring some Airbases back in spring, but I can see disbanding 3 or 4 to get more Romanian Rifles in the line.

The Slovaks, Hungarians, and Italians, I just sent them all back. Their air units are all pretty weak. No reason to sit out in the Blizzard when they barely contribute.

I am open to suggestions though, I am really NOT the expert of Luftwaffe management!!!!

[Lecivius]

Hey  Q-Ball, no update?  I've come over here from WITP, always liked learning from your AAR's.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 25: Blizzard!

After a hiatus, Von Beanie and I are continuing the game with the latest patch installed.

The House Rules limiting attacks are OUT. Von Beanie can unload all he wants.

This might be the first AAR going through the new Beta Blizzard, so if everyone wants, I post some details.

First turn we suffered 29,000 attrition losses, which is less than I expected. Most of my units left in the open were not hurt that badly, so I am not as concerned with making sure everyone gets to a city or town. Because I set this up, though, before the beta, all my Panzers with a couple exceptions are in cities.

Orel/Kharkov Salients: My heavy snow attacks near Orel and Kharkov created salients; we are abandoning gains, though I am holding on to forts in many areas rather than fall back onto open ground. At least this turn, Rivers help a ton, so I am holding any river lines (Ice Level is 7, which provides alot of defense benefits).

We will see how this develops, but letting everyone know this is back ON!

[Sabre21]

Can you post the OOB screen. I would like to compare where you guys are at with the game I did while testing this. In my test game I made it to turn 38 but that was before the armaments were increased by 50%. A new game will no doubt play much different than your current one due to this increase. You will be facing much stronger Soviet units throughout the summer and into the mud season.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Sabre21

Can you post the OOB screen. I would like to compare where you guys are at with the game I did while testing this. In my test game I made it to turn 38 but that was before the armaments were increased by 50%. A new game will no doubt play much different than your current one due to this increase. You will be facing much stronger Soviet units throughout the summer and into the mud season.

A few posts up, #125, has the OOB the turn before. Is that good enough? It didn't change much to turn 25.

The Soviets enter Blizzard with 4.9 mil men, and 4100 tanks. Higher than I would like. V-B did a good job not getting guys cut-off, after the first few turns.

[abulbulian]

I think the attrition loses you seeing on the t25 loses view are from the last snow turn and not the first blizzard turn? But I could be very wrong on that?

[Aussiematto]

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

In my opinion your Panzers in the AGS are not placed well. Ideally, Panzer movements in the south should depict the letter W, cutting up and down each turn, encircling Sovs with every "cut", also ignoring Kiev (it's not important at all, it will fall eventually anyway).

Oleg -- you are right about the cutting up and down, this is definitely working for me. However, the positioning of the panzers driving to Kiev might also be necessary, so as to lure the Soviets into defending it? In almost all cases I

[kswanson1]

ORIGINAL: abulbulian

I think the attrition loses you seeing on the t25 loses view are from the last snow turn and not the first blizzard turn? But I could be very wrong on that?

I think you are right. I ran an AI vs AI game over the weekend to record various game stats. One of the stats I was interested in was Axis attrition rates during the first winter with the v1.04.11 patch. The Axis were suffering about 100,000 casualties per turn strictly from attrition during December. This rate looks to drop to about 50 or 60k per turn in January. It seems to drop again to about 30 to 40k in February.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 27: 12/18/41

Attacks up and down the line; I have a serious problem in the sector around Orel, and also along 17th Army front in the south.

In AGN's sector, not much of a push at all.

In the Center and South, I figure to get pushed back to Smolensk, and probably right to D-Town and Z-Town before the winter is over

Here is some data so far on winter results:

[Q-Ball]

Turn 29: 1/1/42

Not too bad so far; I am losing alot of ground in AGC and AGS, but I expected that. I hope to hold Z-Town/D-Town through the winter, but that's doubtful. Kharkov, Orel, and Bryansk are not gone yet, but I expect them to be shortly. C'est la guerre.

The Wehrmacht is doing OK, though, the new rules certainly make a big difference. By this time in my last game vs. Von Beanie, I had at least 3 dozen infantry units that were already UNREADY. Now, I might have one or two.

Here are the current numbers for posterity:

[marty_01]

From your description, it sounds like blizzard attrition is toned down some. It also sounds like your getting pressed in an across the map gigantor winter offensive. Is that about the size of it? It still sounds like the Soviet attack capability during winter isn't in tune with their historical capability.

Soviet Documents on the Use of War Experience, Vol II, The Winter Campaign 1941 - 1942, Translated by H.Orenstein. Sort of a quick synopsis. The study indicates that the Soviet Army felt German defensive positions were extremely difficult to attack and push back during the winter of 41-42. Much of this was apparently related to the Red Army’s inability to coordinate multi-divisional attacks – these are the Red Army’s own words not mine. Lessons learned by the Red Army were along the lines of German strong points should be bypassed and isolated rather than attacked directly. It sounds like the more successful ground gains during the winter offensive were the result of Red Army units shoe horning Isolated German stong point out of position via flanking moves rather than by direct frontal assault. I think they took these lessons to heart in terms of how they went about executing Operation Uranus -- double envelopment of Stalingrad by pincers pushing through Axis Allies rather than attempting to crash through German units.

Granted the Red Army was able to Push Army Group Center back from the gates of Moscow during the winter of 1941-42. But that is a much more focused winter offensive relative to the across the map winter offensives we are still seeing in WiTE.