8MP Team Game - The Axis team

[thedude357]

we were discussing the same thing several turns ago....our best course of action was to ignore them?

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

Someone help me out please. WTH are the units in the highlighted yellow box actually guarding for the Soviets? I know this is the German side but sheeeessshhhh. These units might as well be in Siberia imho.

ORIGINAL: thedude357

we were discussing the same thing several turns ago....our best course of action was to ignore them?

This has been a recurring point of discussion, and from long before turn 9. The triangle between Gomel, Chernigov and Kursk has always looked surprisingly strongly held.

We''ll have to wait for the end of the game for the Soviet team to tell us but some ideas have been
i) The legacy of armies starting there on turn 1 and not having the rail cap/priority to move them
ii) Being, perhaps, on a command border there can be redundancy/ duplication - something that the Axis team has had to contend with and is part of, and an interesting part of, the team game. This friction of command is closer to the war situations being simulated than solo games.
iii) You are looking at the screenshot "after", the "before" shot is not so bad. And remember the "after" screenshot of HardLuckYetAgain is after Stelteck.....

Also in turn 9 airbases were deployed IN FRONT of the ground units. The only way this could make any sense is the Soviet team did not expect Axis non-motorised forces to reach there this turn. As it turned out this was incorrect. But on that assumption the forces there are not to halt an Axis advance this turn.

It does not make sense to post forces there turns in advance to dig in a defensive line - it is perpendicular to a North to South front!

So if not meant to meet Axis forces this turn or next turn perhaps many were just forces in transit. They had arrived there walking last turn from the South and were walking north?

I posted earlier that it looked like the Soviet team had over reacted to events earlier in the North by redeploying a lot of forces that way. Perhaps there was too little rail cap and so many had to walk. Whether planned or not it is certainly the case many will now be scrambled north.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

Someone help me out please. WTH are the units in the highlighted yellow box actually guarding for the Soviets? I know this is the German side but sheeeessshhhh. These units might as well be in Siberia imho.

ORIGINAL: thedude357

we were discussing the same thing several turns ago....our best course of action was to ignore them?

This has been a recurring point of discussion, and from long before turn 9. The triangle between Gomel, Chernigov and Kursk has always looked surprisingly strongly held.

We''ll have to wait for the end of the game for the Soviet team to tell us but some ideas have been
i) The legacy of armies starting there on turn 1 and not having the rail cap/priority to move them
ii) Being, perhaps, on a command border there can be redundancy/ duplication - something that the Axis team has had to contend with and is part of, and an interesting part of, the team game. This friction of command is closer to the war situations being simulated than solo games.
iii) You are looking at the screenshot "after", the "before" shot is not so bad. And remember the "after" screenshot of HardLuckYetAgain is after Stelteck.....

Also in turn 9 airbases were deployed IN FRONT of the ground units. The only way this could make any sense is the Soviet team did not expect Axis non-motorised forces to reach there this turn. As it turned out this was incorrect. But on that assumption the forces there are not to halt an Axis advance this turn.

It does not make sense to post forces there turns in advance to dig in a defensive line - it is perpendicular to a North to South front!

So if not meant to meet Axis forces this turn or next turn perhaps many were just forces in transit. They had arrived there walking last turn from the South and were walking north?

I posted earlier that it looked like the Soviet team had over reacted to events earlier in the North by redeploying a lot of forces that way. Perhaps there was too little rail cap and so many had to walk. Whether planned or not it is certainly the case many will now be scrambled north.

Thank you Sir for the update. So a few mitigating circumstances caused them to be there. Well you used it to your advantage and that is always a good thing. Again thank you.

[Telemecus]

Turn 9 20-August-1941 Economic War

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
What will the HI and Arms count be after the capture of all these towns?

HardLuckYetAgain's wish is our very desire!

This turn the advance of Axis forces meant the factories at Kramatorskaya have been lost by the Soviet Union. In addition the factories at Stalino, Makeevka, Gorlovka and Mariupol cannot currently be evacuated - if we assume these are lost too total Soviet indutrial losses are

86 Arms (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 6 Dnepropetrovsk, 8 Poltava, 15 Kharkhov, 3 Kramatorskaya, 1 Mariupol, 29 Stalino, 3 Makeevka, 3 Gorlovka)
37 Hvy (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 2 Dnepropetrovsk, 4 Kharkhov, 2 Kramatorskaya, 5 Stalino, 3 Makeevka, 3 Gorlovka))
25 Vehicle (20 Kharkhov, 5 Stalino)
Su-2 (Kharkhov)

This turn the Il-2 factories were evacuated from Voronezh. It is worth taking a perspective on the impact these evacuations will have, and what the bombing for the last 4 turns of them will mean.

The Il-2 in War in the East v1.10 Bitter End
The Red Air Force starts the game with 217 Il-2 Bombers, and gains an extra 1 from an airgroup that arrives in turn 1 just after the Axis bombing. There are two Il-2 factories at Voronezh which start with a very small production run which increases by 3 every turn until it reaches a capacity of 45 a turn. If undisturbed they will produce 2,742 Il-2s each until they are upgraded in October 1942. In addition the MiGG-3 factories in Moscow upgrade to Il-2 factories in January 1942. Typically they will have already been evacuated from Moscow and do have to build capacity from scratch anyway. If undisturbed they will produce 1,440 Il-2s each.

However in many games the Il-2 factories at Voronezh do have to get evacuated and typically before they have built up to full capacity- which means they stay producing at only that level for another 17 turns. If, as in this game, an Il-2 factory is evacuated on turn 8 it would stay on a capacity of only 27 until turn 25 - meaning even if they never ceased production due to damage they would produce 2,436 Il-2s only. But the probabilities are that we should expect production to cease in just under 9 of those turns meaning another 239 never get built for each factory. In other words evacuation would reduce production by about 545 aircraft each (just under a fifth) compared to if they had never been evacuated. Clearly by leaving the evacuation to later this amount can be reduced as capacity is frozen at a higher level for those 17 turns. Or conversely if the evacuation occurs earlier a smaller amount will be produced.

But in this game we started bombing the Il-2 factories on turn 5 meaning they have remained on a capacity of 15 each. If this remained so the factory could only produce 987 Il-2s and likely less due to damage sometimes stopping production.

However having started bombing the factories on turn 5 the Soviets have evacuated the factory on turn 8 and to a location where our bombers are unlikely to reach. Given that they are currently on a capacity of 15, and will take 17 turns to repair, we would expect them to produce 1,640 Il-2s. This is more than a thousand less than an untouched factory, or 600 less than if evacuated without bombing. The bombing of these factories has only consisted of eight bombing missions - four for each factory, no more was possible as they are in the same hex which can only be bombed twice in a turn.

Vulnerability of expanding factories
The key fact has been they have been damaged by only 1% - how much more than 1% mattered little. Factories at the start of their expansion with a way to go before they reach full capacity are very vulnerable to massively disproportionate losses of production as a result.

Which begs the question which other factories are like that?

Kharkhov/ Stalingrad/ Gorky T-34 M1941 factory (51/26/2 capacity turn 1 and expands to 70)
Engels/ Saratov/ Tatischevo Yak-1 factories (4/4/5 capacity on turn 1 and expands to 25)
Voronezh/N Moscow BM-13-116 Rocket Launcher (1/1 capacity on turn 1 and expands to 32)

These are all within bomber range in 1941 with large expansions - we have been bombing them all! Whatever your general attitude to strategic bombing it should be part of the game plan of every Axis player to get and keep these at at least 1 % damage at the earliest date possible. The effects are so overwhelming that I cannot really see an argument against. And doing this, even if it is with a night bombing mission, is eminently doable.

What should the Soviet reaction be - perhaps do everything possible to defend these. But always being able to avoid just 1% damage is not realistic. Given these circumstances it would be better for a Soviet player to evacuate these factories as early as possible out of range of Axis bombers so that they can repair and start expanding as soon as possible.

Strategic Bombing
Our strategic bombing campaign continues to halt expansion of key factories and augment damage levels, apart from one key miss this turn. The Stalingrad tank factory will see its capacity expand this turn

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
Thank you Sir for the update. So a few mitigating circumstances caused them to be there. Well you used it to your advantage and that is always a good thing. Again thank you.

I should say those are the rational explanations - there is always the cock-up explanation

[Telemecus]

Turn 9 Allocations

For information only - team allocations and submissions for turn 9 attached.

[The original post 126 was moved to the end of post 118]

[Telemecus]

Turn 10 27-August-1941 North

Our North commander sends this report back after their go.

ORIGINAL: lowsugar
Leningrad isolated, nothing more happened.

Understatement of the century!

[Telemecus]

The Soviet team will be visiting our forum until we send back our turn 13 to them AND update our AAR and add more detail to it up to and including for turn 13.

I will be interested in their reactions so I hope they will be posting here.

[SparkleyTits]

This feels dirty

[Telemecus]

Turn 10 27-August-1941 Centre

A breakthrough at Vyazma sees motorised troops arrive to Kaluga and surround again (almost) the Western front as far as Bryansk. This running battle every turn is seeing more units destroyed and more units in pockets to be. No Soviet forces appear to remain between us and Tula again.

[thedude357]

Turn 10 Army Group South

With all Stalino rail exits cut off, I was interested in what the Soviets were going to do. To my surprise they held fast and doubled down on holding Stalino. 1 panzer corps was initially isolated, but this worked in my favor as I had 2 panzer corps that performed a HQBU last turn that were there for the rescue. But the rescue mission turned into an opportunity for a decent encirclement as the Soviets stood fast. So now not only did the Soviets lose all the industry of Stalino, they lost practically half of the Southern front. This was a weak encirclement however and it was not expected to hold.

In the far south the assault on the Crimea is set to begin. Massive amounts of nebelwerfers and artillery are transferred to break the defensive stronghold.

[Telemecus]

Turn 10 27-August-1941 Air War



A much quieter turn with for the soviet air with some recon and a few ground unit bombings. The Finnish air force again shows how far south they will fly interceptions beyond the no move line and their Finnish airforce manual missions line.



Soviet interception continues to degrade - and bombing airfields almost turns into a turkey shoot.



{Edit: The following has been retrospectively following a post asking about staging bases which used this turn as an example - and has been placed here too as it describes this turn]

In the graphic below: The red arrows show second stage air missions, black arrow first stage. Airbases are highlighted in red. You will see the vast bulk of the bombers are based 1 hex or less away from the HQ of Luftflotte 2 - so absolutely no range penalty on almost all of them. The graphic shows some of the air missions conducted in turn 10 with their staging bases. The rail line bases are on repaired rail hexes, so one turn behind the rail repair of FBD3. You will also see an example of one of the forward fighter bases - both giving fighter cover over part of the front and staging as escort for some bomber missions.

[Telemecus]

Turn 10 27-August-1941 Economic War

This turn the advance of Axis forces meant the factories at Kaluga, Mariupol and Taganrog have been lost by the Soviet Union. In addition the factories at Stalino, Makeevka, Gorlovka and now in and around Leningrad cannot currently be evacuated - if we assume these are lost too total Soviet indutrial losses are

96 Arms (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 6 Dnepropetrovsk, 8 Poltava, 15 Kharkhov, 3 Kramatorskaya, 1 Mariupol, 29 Stalino, 3 Makeevka, 3 Gorlovka, 2 Taganrog, 8 Leningrad and environs)
51 Hvy (4 Minsk, 3 Kirovgrad, 3 Krivoi Rog, 3 Odessa, 2 Kremenchug, 3 Nikolaev, 2 Dnepropetrovsk, 4 Kharkhov, 2 Kramatorskaya, 5 Stalino, 3 Makeevka, 3 Gorlovka, 2 Kaluga, 2 Tagnrog, 10 Leningrad and environs)
25 Vehicle (20 Kharkhov, 5 Stalino)
Su-2 (Kharkhov)
LaGG-3 "11 series" (Taganrog)
BA-10 Armd Car (Leningrad and environs)

Our strategic bombing campaign, after targetting key vehicle and aircraft factories, has been concentrating solely on heavy industry. They take longer to repair (2% per turn instead of 3% per turn) so the impact will last longer assuming bombing is equally effective against them as against other types. Looking at the figures for factories over run it could be that a better alternative would be to concentrate only on arms factories.

The LaGG-3 "11 series" factory at Taganrog
The Red Air Force starts the game with no aircraft of this type. This is the ninth fighter or fighter-bomber factory the Soviet Union has and between starting production in August 1941 and its end in April 1942 it could produce 780 aircraft. In it's two weeks of production we know some were produced, so the Soviets have either 20 or 40 of this aircraft. It would have upgraded to the The LaGG-3 "29 series" where it could have produced 846 aircraft, then 1026 of the LaGG-3 "66 series", and 1618 of the Yak-3 at the end of the war. These figures are prone to errors in my understanding of Soviet air production later in the war. But whatever the case this seems a big factory to lose and especially when this is becoming a key shortage. At most the 40 aircraft they have of this type, if used, would mean airgroups swapping in and then out of them after a relatively short use.

BA-10 Armd Car
There is a tendency to deprecate the usefulness of armoured cars - they do not show up as critical in battle reports. Nevertheless they were important historically, this was the means of secure transport by road immediately behind front lines - so critical for command and communication. I do not know if this is modelled at all in the War in the East game engine. At the very least there may be an impact on vehicle numbers somehow somewhere.

Strategic Bombing

Ivanovo is the first factory we are bombing that gets to 50% damage, the level we know it will definitely stop production at. From now on Ivanavo will be a lesser target with occasional top up bombing to keep it at or near 50%



We start to attack less important equipment that nevertheless is motorised. Forcing the red army to use more vehicles for the anti aircraft guns can only help.



And extend our bombing campaign into the Caucasus proper

[Telemecus]

Turn 10 Allocations

For information only - team allocations and submissions for turn 10 attached.

[The original post 134 was moved to the post 135]

[Telemecus]

Phase I Barabrossa: Turn 1 25-June-1941 To Turn 10 27-August-1941 Retrospective on Strategy

The Plan
For the 1941 Barbarossa campaign we followed the historical and conventional broad front strategy. Indeed a team game probably means you are constrained to do so. Our ground commanders were given a broad remit to maintain and advance their section of the front, eliminate as much of the enemy armed forces as possible, capture industry and manpower needed for the enemy's further pursuit of the war effort and had the following specific objectives
North- Leningrad
Centre- Moscow
South- Kharkhov (ASAP), Kiev and Stalino
Within these parameters each commander had a broad remit to pursue them as they saw best and to organise their own internal allocations and chains of command.

Supreme Command restricted itself to deciding the boundaries between the different commands, allocations between them and building up the capacity of each. In addition Supreme Command had the role of air commander although in practise this meant delegating control of airgroups to the other commanders during their go. However the air function had its own goal of suppressing the red air force by its own aggressive air offensive.

All cities and urban areas needing garrisons were garrisoned. Each commander was given responsibility for this in their area. But security units in 101 and 102 RHG were successively reassigned to OKH and OKH took on a new rear area of operations away from principally the North and Centre commanders.

Intrinsic to the strategy was the rail repair plan. The approach we took was conventional and has been used and described elsewhere. Three FBDs would operate in the North and Centre creating a double loop. A fourth FBD would rail repair out of Rumania towards Stalino. However this would leave us weak in the centre of the map where our forces would be distant from rail supply, and without the prospect of a lateral North-South line soon. Additionally RHG HQs would be loaded up with construction SUs and placed, together with OKH and army group HQs, to optimise auto rail repair. A particular priority was to get a rail connection from Germany to FBD1's route bypassing Rumania. It is also worth remembering that repaired sea ports and overland from Finland are important additional possible supply routes.



The Results
At the start North and South were each given a corps of motorised troops from Centre's command meaning Centre has been understrength relative to its at start complement. Arrivals have generally been allocated to where there was spare command capacity. German support units generally were on call at OKH headquarters, meaning a large saving in lorry use, but a fair number are directly assigned in particular to motorised units. Generally support units have been used far less during this stage.

The North-Centre boundary on turn 5 turned sharply northeastwards to prioritise the capture of Leningrad. After South met the forces from Centre east of the Pripyat their boundaries has been moving northwards allowing Centre's forces to concentrate on Moscow

North- Leningrad is isolated. A breakthrough in the North in turn 8 led to a cascading effect of breakthroughs across all fronts in the turns afterwards. But the Finns have been unable to get past the Janisjarvi line.
Centre- Moscow has not been achieved, but this is to be expected at this stage. However large numbers of Soviet forces have been captured and solid progress made. However there is an ominous line of dug in positions we can see waiting for us outside of Moscow.
South- Early turns saw slow progress against large numbers of Soviet forces. A plan to keep forces frozen on the Rumanian border for two turns failed. The strategic bombing effort which froze tank production at Kharkhov meant it was not as urgent as we had thought at the start. However once the Dnepr was crossed spectacular gains were made in territory and in industry at Kharkhov and will be made soon at Stalino. All main objectives have effectively been achieved. Crimea, Rostov and Voronezh are possible further goals in the South.
Air- A large proportion of air resources has gone into suppressing the Red Air Force, at some cost to its use as ground support and assistance. There has been a noticeable decline in the quality and quantity of the Red Air Force, so hopefully this can be cashed in as a greater supporting role for the ground forces in the next phase. Our strategic bombing campaign which started in turn 5 was not part of our original plan. Conventionally when the red airforce is not doing its job of protecting the rear of the Soviet Union a few bombing raids usually reminds them - the Red Air Force moves a few airbases and airgroups to protect its industry, honour is restored and all go back to fighting on the front lines. The fact that the Red Air Force has declined to defend its cities and industry has meant we had to make a virtue out of necessity - and show that this is not an optional extra but that strategic bombing is effective. The effect on "named" equipment factories is demonstrable and the impact on the Red Air Force is already apparent, but the impact on tank forces and other arms will only be realisable later. The impact on general industry needs further analysis. We have been targetting an arc of industrial territory roughly along the course of the Volga. This would mean that beyond the area that Axis land forces would normally reach there will be a further area of industrial damage between there and the maximum range of our bombers. This damage from 1941 bombing will still not be fully repaired during our 1942 campaign.

Rail repair in the south was delayed by the period that forces remained frozen in Rumania. Arguably the FBD would have been better used repairing a hex or two in the north and being railed down to Rumania to start repair in turn 3. However the opening did isolate the Soviet forces in the Carpathians from the start, so there were no "Hungarian marauders." As a result our auto rail repair has very nearly finished a critical rail connection by-passing Rumania to the main FBD line going East.

In earlier turns the plan did mean a lot of the forces in Centre were more distant from rail that would have been desirable. In turn 8 it was decided to deprioritise the North East and change the course of the FBD from going East to Dno to going South from Pskow and then on to Nevel to finish a loop earlier.

The following shows the relative states our OOB, manpower and formations.





Attached are all the exact allocations for each turn across the team. As these are condensed bullet points meant for reference by commanders during their turn they have not been included in the narrative of this AAR. Also attached is a spreadsheet detailing how every point was actually spent when, by whom, for what and with what reason. While there are many guides and threads of advice sometimes it is good to see a detailed rundown of how points were actually spent. It is hoped the attached could be useful for others planning a team game, or those looking for actual worked examples for their own games.

The following images, not embedded, depict boundary maps for each turn. After turn 8 it was found that text descriptions of how boundaries should be altered in allocations was sufficient. Where a commander was covering for another commander that turn no boundary was provided.

Turn 1
https://i.imgur.com/uo8U4qb.jpg
Turn 2
https://i.imgur.com/Mc624Ns.jpg
Turn 3
https://i.imgur.com/C8RckRs.png
https://i.imgur.com/xqRzTr6.png
Turn 4 (North-Centre-Rear only)
https://i.imgur.com/cX3SgNM.png
Turn 5
https://i.imgur.com/eNuZcCe.png
https://i.imgur.com/cCaSpaH.png
Turn 6
https://i.imgur.com/Pn9vs9B.png
https://i.imgur.com/OFivVtL.png
Turn 7
https://i.imgur.com/EDuHNSR.png
https://i.imgur.com/AU7ocos.png
Turn 8 (Centre-South only)
https://i.imgur.com/hsY2RHd.png

EDIT: Special request
Ground losses till end of turn 1 Axis https://i.imgur.com/pj6Free.png
Ground losses till end of turn 2 Axis https://i.imgur.com/DoYvwuD.png
Ground losses till end of turn 3 Axis https://i.imgur.com/nVMJWxz.png
Ground losses till end of turn 4 Axis https://i.imgur.com/l3Pwvoe.png
Ground losses till end of turn 5 Axis https://i.imgur.com/YIRYsaT.png

[The above was originally post 134]

Operation Tottenritt

The first phase of our Barbarossa campaign is over - and now the second phase begins. We have the commanders, we have the manpower, we have the units, and now we have the last critical element - the name. Our commanders nominated five possibilities, but curiously did not vote for their own choices. In a close and hard fought election we decided to call this phase Operation Tottenritt which won by just one vote. Literally just one vote!

Tottentitt, our battle for Moscow, begins ......

Event logs for turn 2 to 10 attached. Also included is a spreadsheet detailing how every point was actually spent when, by whom, for what and with what reason. While there are many guides and threads of advice sometimes it is good to see a detailed rundown of how points were actually spent. It is hoped the attached could be useful for others planning a team game, or those looking for actual worked examples for their own games.

[Telemecus]

Turn 11 03-September-1941 Centre

70 miles to Moscow and Operation Tottenritt begins. More running battles as yet more units in the Western Front are surrounded - Soviet losses are now exceeding their replacements. Tula has yet to evacuate its big arms factories. But the last ditch defensive lines in front of Moscow are looking tough. North and South though will be playing their part for Moscow.

[Telemecus]

Turn 11 03-September-1941 North

The reduction of Leningrad starts slowly. Instead a major breakthrough on the southern end of the Volkhov leaving Novgorod surrounded. North is also taking over more and more of the front allowing Cente to concentrate.



Attempts to break the Janisjarvi are abandoned as better uses for the Finns beckon.

[SparkleyTits]

"the Red Air Force moves a few airbases and airgroups to protect its industry, honour is restored and all go back to fighting on the front lines. The fact that the Red Air Force has declined to defend its cities and industry has meant we had to make a virtue out of necessity"

I see little honour in this carnage!

[SpicyJuan]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

Turn 11 03-September-1941 North

The reduction of the Leningrad starts slowly. Instead a major breakthrough on the southern end of the Volkhov leaving Novgorod surrounded. North is also taking over more and more of the front allowing Cente to concentrate.
[/img]

Do you think you can capture both Leningrad and Moscow before the Blizzard?

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: SparkleyTits

"the Red Air Force moves a few airbases and airgroups to protect its industry, honour is restored and all go back to fighting on the front lines. The fact that the Red Air Force has declined to defend its cities and industry has meant we had to make a virtue out of necessity"

I see little honour in this carnage!

War is a dirty business!

ORIGINAL: SpicyJuan

ORIGINAL: Telemecus
Turn 11 03-September-1941 North

The reduction of the Leningrad starts slowly. Instead a major breakthrough on the southern end of the Volkhov leaving Novgorod surrounded. North is also taking over more and more of the front allowing Cente to concentrate.
[/img]

Do you think you can capture both Leningrad and Moscow before the Blizzard?

We are playing a couple of turns ahead now. But at the time, looking at those dug in lines ahead and successive lines of units without knowing their quality, personally, I was unsure. But it was looking good.