IN-COW Leaked Report on WW II.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Victory Totals.

[rkr1958]

End of Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. (con't).

Conquest.
1. Belgium by Germany. The Belgium monarchy flee into exile, along with most of their government's gold reserve, to England. That is, Belgium's new home country is England.

Global Maps.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940.

Reinforcements.
1. Germany - Mil (Hamburg), Arm HQ (Guderian), Mech, LND2, sub.
2. Italy - NAV2, CP, BB Littorio.
3. Japan - Terr x 2 (Korea, Manchuria), FTR2, BB Hiei, Sub.
4. China - none.
5. CW - Mil x 2 (Bombay, Glasgow), CV Illustrious w/CVP, CP x 2, FTR2, NAV2, CA Fiji. Removed Belgium fighter.
6. France - Inf, Gar.
7. USA - CVP (deployed to USS Enterprise), Sub.
8. USSR - CA Voroshilov, Inf, Mtn, Gar.

Severe Oil Shortages on Sicily.
Or, fully realizing the impact of the optional rule limited supply across straights. Specifically, the Italians were unable to use the necessary oil to reorganize three air units (NAV and two fighters) based in Sicily because that can't trace supply through the Italian Coast.

Confidential Message from Italian Garrison Commander of Sicily to Benito Mussolini.
URGENT: Italian air force critical to fighting for control of the Italian Coast and the East Med and based in Sicily are grounded due to extreme shortages of aviation fuel and oil. If our air forces based in Sicily are to support our navy's effort to supply Field Marshall Grazian's forces in Egypt and Libya, it is vital that our navy regain control off the Italian Coast and protect the supply across the Straights of Messina to the island of Sicily.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940.

French High Command.

A second argument is raging inside the French High Command as to whether or not to continue their counterattack on the German Salient, which has been significantly reduced in strength. One again the French generals call in their military analysts to assess the situation, who once again apply the WARGAMING technique licensed to them by IN-COW.

FRENCH WARGAMING ANALYSIS 2.

Assumptions.
1. Initiative/Move first. The initiative track is +1 in favor of the allies. However, the allies won the last initiative, though they elected to move second, which means that ties for the initiative go to the axis. So, with a +1 modifier for the first roll and with ties go to the axis this gives the allies a 55% of winning the first roll (i.e., of getting to go first). If they lose then with a 0 modified and the axis winning ties, the allies would have a 45% chance of winning the second roll. So assuming that the allies will request a re-roll if necessary, the chance of the allies winning the initiative and getting to move first is 75.25%, or slightly better than 3 out of 4.
2. Fine weather. This first assumption is actually a requirement. If the French do decide to continue the counterattack and win the initiative, but the weather isn't fine then the counterattack will be canceled.
3. Artillery ground strike, 3 factors against German airborne and artillery division. The expected number of German units disorganized is equal to 0 x 49% + 1 x 42% + 2 x 9% = 0.6 units. So for this analysis the French wargamers assumed that the artillery division was disorganized giving +1 to the land combat odds.
4. HQ Support. George with provide +1.5 in HQ support.
5. Ground support. The French wargames assumed that the Luftwaffe would be able to provide the maximum ground support of 7 factors to their defense of the Salient. An accurate assumption they thing as the French have only one available fighter unit of poorer quality against an half dozen Luftwaffe units of superior quality that could escort.

Land Combat Odds.
1. The resultant odds are +10.4, which gives the French better than 91% of successfully eliminating the Germany Salient.
2. The expected number of units lost are <0.1 for the French and nearly 1 for the Germans.
3. The chance of the French remaining organized is nearly 59% and 1/2 organized is better than 28%. There's only a 13% of the dreaded "all" attackers disorganized chance, most of which occurs in the 8.4% chance that the counterattack fails.

Back to the French High Command.
Looking for a victory that will give a morale boost to the French army and people and turn this war around the French High Command decides to order a continuation of the French counterattack against the German salient.

The French high command sends orders to General Georges to continue their counterattack, eliminate the German salient and liberate the Belgium territory occupied by German forces of said salient.

MWiF player comments. In term of playing MWiF strictly as a game the decision to continue the counterattack is a bit too risky. If the French attacking forces are disorganized (13% chance) or even 1/2 disorganized (28.4%) then this would accelerate the Fall of France. However, from a simulation point of view, neither the French or the British can conceive that Germany can beat France and, for now, expect a war of attrition as was fought over this very same terrain 20-years earlier.
Therefore, the decision to continue the counterattack is made from a simulation as opposed to a gaming perspective.

[rkr1958]

5. May/June 1940. The Initiative.

"The best made plans of mice and men ... "

1. First roll. Axis 6, allies 3 + 1 = 4. Axis win.
2. Allies request a re-roll.
3. Second roll. Axis 7, allies 2.
4. The axis win the initiative and, or course, elect to move first.
5. Weather is fine across the globe.


The French High Command.

With the loss of the initiative the French High Command rescinds their order to continue with the counterattack on the German salient. The French bemoan their luck as the weather is perfect but they failed to get the initiative when they had a 75% chance of doing so. Though, some may argue that failing to win the initiative may have saved the French army from themselves.

[rkr1958]

"One army's salient is another army's spearhead." -- unknown German staff officer, Gerderian's HQ.

General Guderian's HQ near the German-Belgian Border, late April 1940.

Day 1.

Snow continued to fall outside of Guderian's HQ adding to the six or so inches blanketing the ground. Not the weather one would expect to see the French carrying out a massive counterattack. But, there was no doubt now in General Guderian's mind that was exactly what the French were massing to do as he re-read the latest dispatches from the front. More frustrating to Guderian was that the French apparently were moving to strike at the German spearhead held by X corps, the II FJC and supported by a division of heavy artillery. But most frustrating to Guderian was the two weeks that he and his staff had spent meticulously planning a major spring offensive with the German spearhead at the center of his plan. Now all this was in jeopardy not to mention the troops occupying the spearhead.

Guderian grudgingly gave General Billotte, the French commander apparently who had planned and was in charge of this counterattack, his dues. He didn't think the French general had it in him to attempt such a daring attack, especially in this weather. Guderian was heard mumbling that, "... that French general had the daring necessary of a German general." Guderian called in his chief of staff, a colonel Mueller, to ask what the estimates were that the French counterattack would succeed. Muller depressingly told the General that initial estimates put the French "PWIN" at 70%. Muller went on to add that the French counterattack was being made by 8 corps, including Billote's inf HQ corps and the lone French armor corps, supported by 3 divisions and nearly all of the French air force. Guderian just shook his head and was heard saying, "... 2 weeks of planning wasted ... and the those men in the spearhead ... ".

Day 2.

Guderian was a bit more cheery as he read through day 2 dispatches. No doubt about it, the Luftwaffe had ruled the (previous) day. Not a single French bomber got through the German fighter cover. And, a large number of the French bombers that tried were sent spiraling into the ground. Also, the Luftwaffe had successfully sent in their remaining organized bombers in ground support to the defending German troops.

Guderian had hope that the French loss in the air would be enough to stop Billote and his counterattack. But it wasn't. Billote pushed on with the intention of eliminating the German's spearhead. Again, Guderian was impressed by Billote's aggressiveness and apparent understanding of the significance of the German spearhead pointing to the French border. Muller arrived with the latest (French) PWIN estimate, which after the one side air battle, was down to 51.5%. So now, the chance of holding on was a coin flip.

Day 4.

After two days of heavy fighting on the ground it looked like the spearhead was going to hold but at the expense of X corps who took the blunt of the French armor and was being shredded. However, the FJC with Col. Student's airborne regiment in the lead had stopped the French cold and, in some places, were even pushing them out of the spearhead.

Day 6.

Billote appeared to be calling off the French counterattack. The German spearhead would hold, for now at least. The problem as Guderian now saw it was whether or not the Germans could regain the initiative and reinforce the weaken spearhead before the French attacked again. It was imperative that the Germans get the initiative. But the estimates from Muller were not good. There was only a 25% chance that the Germans would gain the initiative and have a chance to reinforce the spearhead before the French had another crack at it. Guderian mused to himself on what would it take for him to even have a chance to carry out his plan, which hasn't even been pitched to Berlin, much less approved by them.

[rkr1958]

Berlin, Germany. OKW Headquarters.

Day 8.

General Guderian couldn't believe his luck. Not only had Germany regained the initiative but the late winter weather had turned to fine. Guderian now had two of the three elements he need to attempt his ambitious planning: (1) the initiative and (2) the weather. The 3rd was the approval of OKW and specifically the Fuhrer himself.

Operation Salient Offensive Buster (SOB).

Guderian started off pitching his plan to the OKW by explaining that the proper way to look at the front lines in Europe was not that there was a German salient sticking into the allied lines (south-central Belgium) but that there were three French salients sticking into the German lines along the Belgium-French and German-French borders. Guderian's plan was to attack across a broad front, eliminate and occupy these three French salients. While not obvious, but most necessary, was that Guderian's Operation SOB would require an o-chit to double attack factors. A fact that Guderian would surely mention but only if, and after, his operation was approved.

Guderian went on to explain that Operation SOB wasn't intended to produce an armor breakthrough. It's objective was to break the allied line and produce the conditions for an armor breakthrough, or breakthroughs, in follow up operations (i.e., impulses). Also, by breaking the allied lines, both the French and CW would be put in the mode of reacting instead of trying to dictate the battle. Importantly, these reactions, especially those of the CW, would siphon away actions need so desperately by the British and their RN in their fight against the Italians in the Med and in Egypt.

In the end, Guderian's plan was emphatically approved and endorsed by the Fuhrer. OKW's enthusiasm was less so, but them being the OKW and the Fuhrer being the Fuhrer they too gave their ok to Guderian's, "Operation SOB", which was to be launched as soon as was practical but no later than with in a week of now.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1.

Objectives (impulse/turn).

Germany.
1. Operation SOB (impulse).
2. Capture Paris (turn).
3. Trap/destroy BEF (turn).
4. Interdict CW convoys/supply lines (turn).
5. Build up Nazi-Soviet pact garrison ratio (turn).
6. Prop up Mussolini in the Med, Libya and Egypt (turn).

Italy.
1. Establish and maintain supply in the Italian Coast (impulse/turn).
2. Maintain supply through East Med (impulse/turn).
3. Capture Alexander (turn).

Japan.
1. Capture Chengchow, China (impulse).
2. Shore up defenses in Central China (impulse/turn).
3. Capture Wuhany, China (turn).

DOW - none.

Actions.
1. Japan - land.
2. Germany - land w/o-chit (Guderian).
3. Italy - naval.

Naval Air.
1. Italy - NAV to 3-box, Italian Coast.

Italian RM Naval Moves.
1. CP to Italian Coast, which restores supply (for the moment) through to Grazian's army in Egypt.
2. 3 CA's in Tripoli (which are now back in supply) move to the 4-box of the East Med.
3. BB & 2 CA's from Trieste to 0-box of the East Med (convoy escort).
4. 2 BB's and CA from Trieste to 3-box, Italian Cast.
5. 3 CA's from Trieste to 4-box, Italian Coast.
6. BB and 2 CA's from Trieste to 0-box, Italian Coast (convoy escort).
7. 2 subs to Cape St. Vincent (2 & 3 boxes).
8. 2 subs to Cape Verde Basin (1 & 2 boxes).

Italian sub combat.
1. Cape Verde Basin. Search, Axis 10, Allies 7. No contact.
2. Cape St. Vincent. Search, Axis 9, Allies 8. No contact.

Naval Combat.
1. Italian Coast. Italian RM no attempt and RN no attempt.
2. East Med. Italian RM - no attempt and RN no attempt.
The British RN is out numbered by the RM in both sea areas and has unescorted CP's in the East Med. No need to risk supply or possibly defeat when overwhelming naval assets are waiting in nearby ports.

Ground Strikes.
1. Japan - Chenchow (city/clear). NAV2, LND2 versus 3 stack. 1 of 3 disorganized. Adds +2 to land combat.
2. Italy - Alexander, Egypt (city/clear). LND3 versus 2 stack. 1 of 2 disorganized (inf corps and not Wavell's HQ). Adds +2 to a potential land combat.
3. Germany - Belgium[54,32] (woods & SOB objective). LND3, FTR3(F/B) escorted by FTR2 which are intercepted by a French FTR2. Both the Luftwaffe FTR3(F/B) and French FTR2 are shot down. LND3 is cleared against a 3 stack. 2 of 3 units (corps & division) are disorganized. This adds +3 to land combat. Pre-ground strike analysis, which assumed that both the LND3 and FTR3(F/B) would both be cleared, put the expected modifier due to ground strike at +2.2. So actual results matched fairly well to expected.
4. Germany - Belgium[52,31] (clear & SOB objective). LND2 x 2 versus a two stack. No units disorganized, +0 modifier to land combat. This ground strike result was disappointing as the expected modifier was +2.8.

Rail.
1. Japan. Korean MIL to Haichow, which frees up the IJA 2nd inf division from anti-partisan garrison duty.
2. Japan. Manchurian MIL to Nanking, freeing up an Engineering Division.

Note. Yamamoto, 2 mar corps, 2 MILs and 2 TERRs in reserve in Korea, Manchuria and holding Zukhov, 3 inf armiers, 2 cav division and 1 artillery division in Asia. This prevents such units form being used to increase/break the Nazi-Soviet pact ratio or to expand Soviet influence into the Middle East (i.e., Persia and possibly Iraq).

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1 (con't).

Japan. Land Combat.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1 (con't).

North/Central China.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1 (con't).

Italy. Grazian, Egypt.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1 (con't).

German. Operation SOB.

Operation SOB is a "smashing" success, exceeding the already high expectations. In fact there were no land units for Guderian, who will become disorganized due to the o-chit played, so he reorganized two LND2 instead.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #1 (con't).

The Western Front.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2.

CW Objectives (Turn). (Note, listed in particular order of priority)
1. ASW Patrols.
2. East Med, break Italian supply.
3. East Med, put on patrol a strong potential for defensive shore bombardment (e.g., for Wavell and stack in Alexandria).
4. Italian Coast, Break supply / convoy route for RP in Sardinia to Italy.
5. India, recapture RP[94,110] and eliminate partisan.
6. North Sea, put on patrol a strong potential for defensive shore bombardment (e.g., discourage Germany from attacking BEF on coast).
7. BEF, survive, assist in French defenses.
8. Med - move more fighters and nav air units to Med.

French Objectives.
1. Survive the turn.
2. Maintain sufficient garrison in Vichy to both discourage DOW by Italy and Germany from not declaring Vichy.

Chinese Objectives.
1. Deny Japan at least 1 RP.
2. Don't allow Japan to capture any Chinese held RP's.

USSR Objectives.
1. Maintain deterrence / counter to USSR forces in Asia.
2. Increase Nazi-Soviet pact ratio.

No DOW, no special actions.

Nazi-Soviet Pact. Germany - NO (62). USSR - NO (8.5).

Actions.
1. USSR (neutral) - combine.
2. China - land.
3. CW - combine.
4. France - land.
5. USSR (neutral) - combine.

Naval Air.
1. CW - Harrow (Malta) to 3-box, E. Med.
2. France - L.298 NAV (last remaining French air unit) to 3-box Bay of Biscay.

CW Naval Moves.
1. HMS Hood & Renown and 3 CA's to 4-box East Med.
2. HMS Malaya, Resolution, Revenge to 3-box East Med.

USA Naval Moves.
1. Sub (San Diego) to Hawaiian islands.
2. CP to Solomons (supply).
3. CP to Polynesia (supply).

Potential Naval Combat.
1. Cape St. Vincent - no way!
2. Italian Coast - no.
3. East Med - yes, Searches, CW 10 and Italians 9. No contact.

ASW, Sub Threat Matrix.

The CW was forced to use a combine to keep the BEF from getting trapped. With only 2 naval moves the RN wasn't able to send out any additional ASW patrols. The two naval moves were use in the East Med. While the RN failed to initiate combat and break Italian supply they have managed to get defensive shore bombardment in place in support of Alexandria.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Allied #2 (con't).

Ground strike.
1. CW in Egypt on Graziani stack. (1 factor, 10% versus 3 units). 0/3 disorganized.

Rails.
1. CW in India, 2nd inf div from Bombay to Concanada. 2nd now assigned, for now, to anti-partisan duties.
2. USSR, 3-5 Mongolia cav from Sverdlovsk to Vilna.

Notable Land Moves.
1. Chicomm use/need all 5 of the USSR's moves.
2. BEF retreated back from Belgium to France.

France (post movement phase).

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3.

Weather. Roll = 4 (None,1).
1. Arctic - fine.
2. North temperate - fine.
3. Med - fine.
4. North monsoon - rain.
5. South monsoon - fine.
6. South temperate - fine.

Realigned Objectives - Japan.

Being that May/June and Jul/August are the fighting season for the North temperate (i.e., fine weather near certain), Japan has decided to hold their push in the North against the Chicomm and pivot south with Terauchi's army group against the Nationalist. The ultimate goal of this offensive is to secure central China and capture the objective RP [88,142].

Germany. Operation Demolition.

Operation Demolition is a moderately risky operation designed to break the allied lines at three points and with armor breakthrough at point 2. This operation is an aggressive follow-up to Guderian's Operation SOB and if successful would lead to the destruction of the French army and the surrender of France within the next four months (i.e., two turns). The most ambitious and critical of the three attacks is the blitz attack, which assumes a modifier of +3 or better from ground strikes.

Italy. Operation Broken Spear.

Assuming the Brits force an assault this operation has only a 1 out of 5 shot of succeeding. But if it succeeds the Brits in Egypt, and Egypt itself are in serious trouble. Given the situation, waiting doesn't the Italians any chance for better odds. If fact, waiting may result in robbing the Italians of the shot they have now to take Alexandria. So it's now or never and the decision is now ...

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3 (con't).

No DOW, no special actions, no alignments (of Hungary, Bulgaria, Siam).

Nazi-Soviet Pact. Germany - NO (62). USSR - NO (8.5).

Actions.
1. Japan - land.
2. Germany - land.
3. Italy - land.

Ground Strikes.
1. Germany vs France [54,31] (i.e., Blitz hex) containing three units including French HQ. LND2 (5 factors) x 2. 75% chance of disorganizing a given unit, which gives an expected modifier from the ground strike of +3.75. (i.e., 2 corps, 1 division; so 75% x 5 = +3.75.). The result was that only the division was disorganized meaning that a modified of only +1 instead of +3.75 as planned would be added, reducing the potential attack odds by 2.75 from 8.050 B to +5.3 B. Too low! Land combat #2 is postponed. However attacks 1 and 3 will still go off as planned.

Rail.
1. Germany - 6-4 inf to Warsaw, Poland.
2. Japan - 3-2 MAN Mil to Kaifeng.

Air Drop.
1. Germany - Lille, France. FJC.

Land Combat.
1. Japan. Nanyang, China.
2. Germany. Lille, France.
3. Germany. Metz, France.
4. Italy. Alexandria, Egypt.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3 (con't).

Land Combat. Japan. Nanyang, China.

Near automatic. Still, the Japanese roll well.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3 (con't).

Northern, Central China.

[rkr1958]

Turn 5. May/June 1940. Axis #3 (con't).

Germany. Land Combat. HQ Reorg.

The attack on Lille was a complete success. The attack on Metz, which succeeded, was a bit bloody. However, taking Metz has broken one of the anchor points of the French defense. The other anchor point was Lille.