I'm going to stop turn by turn reports, I really struggle with writing from the axis pov as you are working in 2 time scales. Relatively long term - say for a defense vs the invasion of France that maybe more about slowing the allied move towards Germany than holding the beaches. the other is an essentially repetitive list of allied bombing raids.
the game goes on, I'll put in the occasional update when something happens and its open for GR to post as he wishes
Failure of the Will - GR (allies), loki (axis)
Moderator: MOD_WarintheWest
-
GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: T39 - don't look at Italy
An Allied Interlude: The Ever Creatively Name Operation Linebreaker (Up to T42)
As Loki falls back to the Po river (or, alternatively, cunningly draws me into open terrain near the Po river to enact a counterattack), it seems like a good time to interlude.
Big Picture
After the allies take Rome, both sides face a major strategic decision. Namely, how much effort do you put in to Italy? For the allies this essentially boils down to one of three variants:
Rome and Home. Leave enough troops in place to prevent a wild hair retaking Italy, but then focus your efforts on a big D-Day and well prepared Dragoon.
Take the Florence Basin. The middling option, favorable because you have plenty of time to do it, a modest VP reward, and a natural flow of reinforcements that basically does your planning for you.
Go All the Way. This is a big one. If you can break out into the green fields beyond the Apennines, there are both a lot of VPs and a couple strategic variants that open up. But you need to put in enough effort to get over the Apennines – 70 miles of slugging terrain.
(The Germans don’t have such clear cut geographical delineations, which in many ways makes their decision all the harder for it not being obvious: how much do you leave in Italy? If the Germans overbid, then the big show in France may face shortages of critical units. If they underbid, the allies might pick up a lot of VP reasonably cheap. If they get it just right, while they probably won’t stop the Allies entirely, they can make it a VP negative campaign. Due to interior lines on the continent, this decision can shift much quicker than the WA.)
So, why the hell would you, as an allied player, sign up for a 70 miles slugfest that diverts troops from NWE, fighting in bad weather, through bad terrain, all while resources steadily flow back to England? Why did I do it?
First and foremost, I wanted Italy to be a real threat theater when D-day came around. I wanted Loki to have to choose between giving up lots of VPs or dragging enough forces away from NWE to actually make a stand in the open terrain north of the Apennines. Either one would be a win.
Second, the potential for not only immediate VPs, but access to VPs while the bloody post landing battles are underway. This comes in three forms. First, by crossing into the garrison zone you deny the Germans VPs that they were going to get for setting up a line they needed to set up anyhow. Second, the Tuscan cities represent a modest supplement when taken – there is a failure option where if you think you can’t make good, you can happily bank a cluster of cities without having to penetrate the mountains. Finally, the green fields beyond are very rich. Nearly the equivalent of a second France when you add them up. If you can get there cheaply enough, it’ll feed in VPs that help offset the loss period of D-Day and the drive to the Rhine.
And that’s the rub. To do N. Italy, you have to do it cheap in terrain designed to make it expensive, otherwise from a VP perspective all you did was draw on VP with an inefficient force allocation.
The Enemy
Loki withdrew in good order from the Rome operation, and initial attempts to break in from the march failed. So I knew he more or less not only had his army intact, but would have time to dig it in as well. In case I hadn’t got the message that the pursuit was over, three weeks of losses battering Rimini before the weather shut me down and my western Corps commanders refusing to drive home what were -ahem, attacks that maybe looked more sensible from above - reinforced the point well enough.
On top of which, I counted three panzer divisions, three panzergrenadier divisions, one FJ division, two mountain divisions, and Schmalz – oh and a few Corps of solid infantry - marched into the line, including the truly obnoxious 12th SS. Nothing says “you shall not pass” like a unit that can individually turn even light woods into an “X” defense, and also has the striking power to potentially push any single allied division.
The picture of Loki’s defense shaped up in January. Essentially he was going to deploy his forces with the FJs and an infantry Corps supported by smaller mechanized elements locking down the Adriatic, a parcel of mountain infantry holding the largely pointless central-east mountain ranges, and the piece-de-resistance, five full heavy divisions committed in the Florence/Center region to make sure any one hex would be a slaughterhouse. The only apparent weakness was the fact that the west was held by a “mere” five infantry divisions and some unknown mech elements, thought to be in regimental packets.
It looked like an extensive forward defense, relying on the terrain rather than units to provide depth. And relying on the fact that pushing a panzergrenadier division out of a well fortified city would be brutally violent. Breaking in would be hard, but I might be able to grab a second or third hex on a good day.
I didn’t know what the LW was looking like, but his tactical bombers had been fairly intact up to this point, and the long pause after Rome probably meant his level bomber force had rebuilt to a steady plateau. I completely failed to account for the RSI air force, who gleefully interrupted my air plans throughout the campaign.
The Plan
Looking at that defense, it became clear that doing this the straight forward way would quickly negate the entire point of the operation.
Remembering our previous game, I also recalled that when Loki was forced into fighting one hex up, then over, then over, then pause and shift, then a hex up somewhere else on the line, then over, ad nauseam, the fight took nearly nine months and was bloody. It shattered army group C in the process, but that was not as valuable to me as presenting a threat near D-Day. And as the Germans I didn’t have nearly the assets available that Loki did (he really did withdraw far better than I did.), so presumably it’d be far worse.
I decided that all I really cared about was going north on any angle that would let me. Break north and the cities would follow, as would the eventual displacement of the German army. Anything else was bound to be too bloody and too time consuming to get what I really wanted. Supporting this, the same terrain that made it hard to kick the Germans out allowed long narrow thrusts to be reasonably confident in not being cut off (whoops...so that may have been an overly bold assumption).
The details were opportunity driven: find a weak point, any weak point, and start going north along the axis of least resistance. Don’t bother with taking the Italian Stalingrads. A secondary consideration was that, if possible, I’d try to fight the mech in the mountains (they suffer penalties there) so they’d be worn down for the plains, while avoiding pointless battles with the infantry who would be much more vulnerable at the end of the phase. The goal was to be a real threat to Bologna by June where keeping me in check meant taking panzers away from NWE.
From there, I decided it would be a two phase execution.
The first phase (Operation Uppercut) would involve finding a weak point along the west and starting to drive north in a menacing manner. Besides hopefully snagging some cities and even maybe, just maybe pocketing some units against the Med if I got really lucky, it would no doubt draw in a lot of Loki’s forces. Either from the Rimini area, or force armor to re-deploy out of it’s strong defensive positions.
Besides helping to turn a line, this helps in a very practical manner in Italy in a way that isn’t as true in NWE – the week a heavy division drives through the mountains, it suffers heavily from supply loss and disruption even from the shorter moves, it is unfortified, and suffers a combat penalty in the dense terrain which penalizes vehicles and rewards infantry. In short, for one week it is weak enough to be hammered badly if you strike with everything in your arsenal. Blast enough heavy divisions, and the line starts to give way. At that point it’s just time and pressure to find enough cracks to flow through, particularly if you don’t care exactly where you do it.
The great threat would be that I figured Loki had one solid counter-attack in his forces. The Germans as always would be singing the tune “I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.” Until that attack came I would need to keep an assault Corps on hand just in case the worst happened and he actually cut a spearhead off. I didn't really think this would happen, but felt I had enough time that it was better to keep a reserve than a massive risk for little gain. I wish I could say this was prophetic, but it was mostly just not seeing a good reason to take a risk.
With Loki driving that way, the stage would be set for the landings near Rimini (Operation Short Hook)i, unlocking the eastern part of the line and, if fortune favored, maybe jumping the Ravenna-Forli line as well. If it could catch and destroy the 4th FJ, so much the better. You may notice this part never happened, invalidating many weeks of invasion prep, but given the circumstances I’ll take it.
At the end, I hoped to be postured on the north side of the mountains with enough combat power to cover the whole front and have two active assault sectors when the next drives began.
The Outcome
The drive started OK, after some abortive runs at Pisa, with the designated assault Corps finding a line to take in the middle. Then Loki went all in on a counter-attack with virtually everything in his inventory. And it worked. Crap.
This was the moment of decision; if I could break that, he would have just drained the combat power of virtually half of his elite units. And German elite units simply don’t rebuild well unless given tender care. Even one attack may mean the rest of an operational phase with reduced CVs unless you’re rich enough to rotate units to the rear. Even with Loki’s deployment, that seemed unlikely.
As it turned out, that went better than expected; the assault Corps and the four hundred or so aircraft set aside for the eventuality turned out to be up to the task. The airpower smash on the HG and 26th, combined with a two corps attack, destroyed ~250 tanks in one turn, routed the 26th, and set up the next axis of advance. From there, a simple operational methodology arose – drive forward, wait for the mechanized response, blow it to hell with air power while it is uncovered, find a new weak point, drive forward, do it again. Keep moving north somewhere as long as possible so you’re always fighting low level forts and units that just marched. Shortly the HG was routed, as was part of the 90th PG, then an infantry division (+) was battered and by and large the bulldozer got moving along a very narrow front with sweepers coming up behind whenever Loki had to displace. Loki managed to contain the first axis of advance, but began committing the air force and had to weaken the center sector to do it. One final “eraser” air effort – literally flying 1800 aircraft strike missions seven days a week against a single division while another 500 went into gaining air superiority - blew open the path to Bologna and pushed the southern axis air forces past the point where they were willing to stay stuck in. Only twenty miles left to the city…
Loki rushed to cover the hole, and to be honest had thrown up a defense that would have required me shift axis again. I wasn’t going to get through 3x PZG units fast enough or cheap enough to hit my goals. Through sheer luck, I still had the divisions on the east coast that had been tagged to Short Hook, the landings that never happened. They managed to threaten the Ravenna-Forli sector quickly as Loki shortened his line, threatening an envelopment. Loki withdrew for reasons only he knows, but I like to think it was the threat of losing a chunk of the army…though it’s probably a clever plan I’ll see too late.
So that’s where we are today – the allies advancing out of the Appenines in mid-apirl, tentatively picking up the cities south of the Po, aware that there are still lurking panzers and without the natural shields of the mountains that allowed earlier audacity. And of course, both sides eyes are drawn north as the summer weather approaches...
Lessons
Tailored Air Strikes: While few people have the time or will to tailor every mission, Italy is unique in that you are rarely fighting over more than one hex. Which means you can spend a good bit of mental effort optimizing the strike on a given target. This proved very effective. As far as mechanics, I concluded that FBs in direct attack work best against armor (though they largely only damage and disrupt the better stuff until you pile on with theater wide resources.) The American FBs carrying a pair of 1,000 lb bombs seemed to execute this role particularly well, whereas I was disappointed in the Hurricane IVs twin 40mm package.
In addition, personally setting the strike so all several hundred aircraft hit at once seems to produce more casualties than the default settings. The downside is that if you reach the point where you have supposedly disrupted the entire division (you haven’t, but your troops apparently disagree), you may see a wasted strike that doesn’t attack until the next day in the week – the default setting hits far more consistently, but for a lot less casualties. And most importantly, it seems like the really big one package strikes break the threshold to starting killing tanks. I don’t know why, it just seems to do it.
In Italy, Mr. Hart is Correct: Reasonably obvious to everyone without me saying it, but it is reinforced here. You take terrain in Italy indirectly, by threatening other terrain, not by storming it frontally. NWE with it’s far different force ratios and generally more open terrain offers less opportunities in this regard.
GS Missions, The Quite Important Shield: While the offensive value of GS missions is mostly reactive and therefore more helpful during exploitation, the superb value of a GS mission actually lies in it's defensive properties. Besides the fact that the FBs do a lot more damage to troops attacking than those defending, this is your ace in the hole against enemy counterattacks – and even more importantly, your immediate shield against enemy GS when you attack. In one mission, literally one German FW-190G got through, where it killed 70 men and I think three tanks, and disrupted many more. Loki had 50+ in the GS, most of whom got shot down or turned away by my own fighters in GS mode. Had I attacked without a GS up, I’m pretty sure the casualties would have been horrific as all 50 played merry hell.
The mechanical way to guarantee air cover is to add escort fighters to the GS mission, though it appears some part of the local air superiority missions also come in.
As Loki falls back to the Po river (or, alternatively, cunningly draws me into open terrain near the Po river to enact a counterattack), it seems like a good time to interlude.
Big Picture
After the allies take Rome, both sides face a major strategic decision. Namely, how much effort do you put in to Italy? For the allies this essentially boils down to one of three variants:
Rome and Home. Leave enough troops in place to prevent a wild hair retaking Italy, but then focus your efforts on a big D-Day and well prepared Dragoon.
Take the Florence Basin. The middling option, favorable because you have plenty of time to do it, a modest VP reward, and a natural flow of reinforcements that basically does your planning for you.
Go All the Way. This is a big one. If you can break out into the green fields beyond the Apennines, there are both a lot of VPs and a couple strategic variants that open up. But you need to put in enough effort to get over the Apennines – 70 miles of slugging terrain.
(The Germans don’t have such clear cut geographical delineations, which in many ways makes their decision all the harder for it not being obvious: how much do you leave in Italy? If the Germans overbid, then the big show in France may face shortages of critical units. If they underbid, the allies might pick up a lot of VP reasonably cheap. If they get it just right, while they probably won’t stop the Allies entirely, they can make it a VP negative campaign. Due to interior lines on the continent, this decision can shift much quicker than the WA.)
So, why the hell would you, as an allied player, sign up for a 70 miles slugfest that diverts troops from NWE, fighting in bad weather, through bad terrain, all while resources steadily flow back to England? Why did I do it?
First and foremost, I wanted Italy to be a real threat theater when D-day came around. I wanted Loki to have to choose between giving up lots of VPs or dragging enough forces away from NWE to actually make a stand in the open terrain north of the Apennines. Either one would be a win.
Second, the potential for not only immediate VPs, but access to VPs while the bloody post landing battles are underway. This comes in three forms. First, by crossing into the garrison zone you deny the Germans VPs that they were going to get for setting up a line they needed to set up anyhow. Second, the Tuscan cities represent a modest supplement when taken – there is a failure option where if you think you can’t make good, you can happily bank a cluster of cities without having to penetrate the mountains. Finally, the green fields beyond are very rich. Nearly the equivalent of a second France when you add them up. If you can get there cheaply enough, it’ll feed in VPs that help offset the loss period of D-Day and the drive to the Rhine.
And that’s the rub. To do N. Italy, you have to do it cheap in terrain designed to make it expensive, otherwise from a VP perspective all you did was draw on VP with an inefficient force allocation.
The Enemy
Loki withdrew in good order from the Rome operation, and initial attempts to break in from the march failed. So I knew he more or less not only had his army intact, but would have time to dig it in as well. In case I hadn’t got the message that the pursuit was over, three weeks of losses battering Rimini before the weather shut me down and my western Corps commanders refusing to drive home what were -ahem, attacks that maybe looked more sensible from above - reinforced the point well enough.
On top of which, I counted three panzer divisions, three panzergrenadier divisions, one FJ division, two mountain divisions, and Schmalz – oh and a few Corps of solid infantry - marched into the line, including the truly obnoxious 12th SS. Nothing says “you shall not pass” like a unit that can individually turn even light woods into an “X” defense, and also has the striking power to potentially push any single allied division.
The picture of Loki’s defense shaped up in January. Essentially he was going to deploy his forces with the FJs and an infantry Corps supported by smaller mechanized elements locking down the Adriatic, a parcel of mountain infantry holding the largely pointless central-east mountain ranges, and the piece-de-resistance, five full heavy divisions committed in the Florence/Center region to make sure any one hex would be a slaughterhouse. The only apparent weakness was the fact that the west was held by a “mere” five infantry divisions and some unknown mech elements, thought to be in regimental packets.
It looked like an extensive forward defense, relying on the terrain rather than units to provide depth. And relying on the fact that pushing a panzergrenadier division out of a well fortified city would be brutally violent. Breaking in would be hard, but I might be able to grab a second or third hex on a good day.
I didn’t know what the LW was looking like, but his tactical bombers had been fairly intact up to this point, and the long pause after Rome probably meant his level bomber force had rebuilt to a steady plateau. I completely failed to account for the RSI air force, who gleefully interrupted my air plans throughout the campaign.
The Plan
Looking at that defense, it became clear that doing this the straight forward way would quickly negate the entire point of the operation.
Remembering our previous game, I also recalled that when Loki was forced into fighting one hex up, then over, then over, then pause and shift, then a hex up somewhere else on the line, then over, ad nauseam, the fight took nearly nine months and was bloody. It shattered army group C in the process, but that was not as valuable to me as presenting a threat near D-Day. And as the Germans I didn’t have nearly the assets available that Loki did (he really did withdraw far better than I did.), so presumably it’d be far worse.
I decided that all I really cared about was going north on any angle that would let me. Break north and the cities would follow, as would the eventual displacement of the German army. Anything else was bound to be too bloody and too time consuming to get what I really wanted. Supporting this, the same terrain that made it hard to kick the Germans out allowed long narrow thrusts to be reasonably confident in not being cut off (whoops...so that may have been an overly bold assumption).
The details were opportunity driven: find a weak point, any weak point, and start going north along the axis of least resistance. Don’t bother with taking the Italian Stalingrads. A secondary consideration was that, if possible, I’d try to fight the mech in the mountains (they suffer penalties there) so they’d be worn down for the plains, while avoiding pointless battles with the infantry who would be much more vulnerable at the end of the phase. The goal was to be a real threat to Bologna by June where keeping me in check meant taking panzers away from NWE.
From there, I decided it would be a two phase execution.
The first phase (Operation Uppercut) would involve finding a weak point along the west and starting to drive north in a menacing manner. Besides hopefully snagging some cities and even maybe, just maybe pocketing some units against the Med if I got really lucky, it would no doubt draw in a lot of Loki’s forces. Either from the Rimini area, or force armor to re-deploy out of it’s strong defensive positions.
Besides helping to turn a line, this helps in a very practical manner in Italy in a way that isn’t as true in NWE – the week a heavy division drives through the mountains, it suffers heavily from supply loss and disruption even from the shorter moves, it is unfortified, and suffers a combat penalty in the dense terrain which penalizes vehicles and rewards infantry. In short, for one week it is weak enough to be hammered badly if you strike with everything in your arsenal. Blast enough heavy divisions, and the line starts to give way. At that point it’s just time and pressure to find enough cracks to flow through, particularly if you don’t care exactly where you do it.
The great threat would be that I figured Loki had one solid counter-attack in his forces. The Germans as always would be singing the tune “I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.” Until that attack came I would need to keep an assault Corps on hand just in case the worst happened and he actually cut a spearhead off. I didn't really think this would happen, but felt I had enough time that it was better to keep a reserve than a massive risk for little gain. I wish I could say this was prophetic, but it was mostly just not seeing a good reason to take a risk.
With Loki driving that way, the stage would be set for the landings near Rimini (Operation Short Hook)i, unlocking the eastern part of the line and, if fortune favored, maybe jumping the Ravenna-Forli line as well. If it could catch and destroy the 4th FJ, so much the better. You may notice this part never happened, invalidating many weeks of invasion prep, but given the circumstances I’ll take it.
At the end, I hoped to be postured on the north side of the mountains with enough combat power to cover the whole front and have two active assault sectors when the next drives began.
The Outcome
The drive started OK, after some abortive runs at Pisa, with the designated assault Corps finding a line to take in the middle. Then Loki went all in on a counter-attack with virtually everything in his inventory. And it worked. Crap.
This was the moment of decision; if I could break that, he would have just drained the combat power of virtually half of his elite units. And German elite units simply don’t rebuild well unless given tender care. Even one attack may mean the rest of an operational phase with reduced CVs unless you’re rich enough to rotate units to the rear. Even with Loki’s deployment, that seemed unlikely.
As it turned out, that went better than expected; the assault Corps and the four hundred or so aircraft set aside for the eventuality turned out to be up to the task. The airpower smash on the HG and 26th, combined with a two corps attack, destroyed ~250 tanks in one turn, routed the 26th, and set up the next axis of advance. From there, a simple operational methodology arose – drive forward, wait for the mechanized response, blow it to hell with air power while it is uncovered, find a new weak point, drive forward, do it again. Keep moving north somewhere as long as possible so you’re always fighting low level forts and units that just marched. Shortly the HG was routed, as was part of the 90th PG, then an infantry division (+) was battered and by and large the bulldozer got moving along a very narrow front with sweepers coming up behind whenever Loki had to displace. Loki managed to contain the first axis of advance, but began committing the air force and had to weaken the center sector to do it. One final “eraser” air effort – literally flying 1800 aircraft strike missions seven days a week against a single division while another 500 went into gaining air superiority - blew open the path to Bologna and pushed the southern axis air forces past the point where they were willing to stay stuck in. Only twenty miles left to the city…
Loki rushed to cover the hole, and to be honest had thrown up a defense that would have required me shift axis again. I wasn’t going to get through 3x PZG units fast enough or cheap enough to hit my goals. Through sheer luck, I still had the divisions on the east coast that had been tagged to Short Hook, the landings that never happened. They managed to threaten the Ravenna-Forli sector quickly as Loki shortened his line, threatening an envelopment. Loki withdrew for reasons only he knows, but I like to think it was the threat of losing a chunk of the army…though it’s probably a clever plan I’ll see too late.
So that’s where we are today – the allies advancing out of the Appenines in mid-apirl, tentatively picking up the cities south of the Po, aware that there are still lurking panzers and without the natural shields of the mountains that allowed earlier audacity. And of course, both sides eyes are drawn north as the summer weather approaches...
Lessons
Tailored Air Strikes: While few people have the time or will to tailor every mission, Italy is unique in that you are rarely fighting over more than one hex. Which means you can spend a good bit of mental effort optimizing the strike on a given target. This proved very effective. As far as mechanics, I concluded that FBs in direct attack work best against armor (though they largely only damage and disrupt the better stuff until you pile on with theater wide resources.) The American FBs carrying a pair of 1,000 lb bombs seemed to execute this role particularly well, whereas I was disappointed in the Hurricane IVs twin 40mm package.
In addition, personally setting the strike so all several hundred aircraft hit at once seems to produce more casualties than the default settings. The downside is that if you reach the point where you have supposedly disrupted the entire division (you haven’t, but your troops apparently disagree), you may see a wasted strike that doesn’t attack until the next day in the week – the default setting hits far more consistently, but for a lot less casualties. And most importantly, it seems like the really big one package strikes break the threshold to starting killing tanks. I don’t know why, it just seems to do it.
In Italy, Mr. Hart is Correct: Reasonably obvious to everyone without me saying it, but it is reinforced here. You take terrain in Italy indirectly, by threatening other terrain, not by storming it frontally. NWE with it’s far different force ratios and generally more open terrain offers less opportunities in this regard.
GS Missions, The Quite Important Shield: While the offensive value of GS missions is mostly reactive and therefore more helpful during exploitation, the superb value of a GS mission actually lies in it's defensive properties. Besides the fact that the FBs do a lot more damage to troops attacking than those defending, this is your ace in the hole against enemy counterattacks – and even more importantly, your immediate shield against enemy GS when you attack. In one mission, literally one German FW-190G got through, where it killed 70 men and I think three tanks, and disrupted many more. Loki had 50+ in the GS, most of whom got shot down or turned away by my own fighters in GS mode. Had I attacked without a GS up, I’m pretty sure the casualties would have been horrific as all 50 played merry hell.
The mechanical way to guarantee air cover is to add escort fighters to the GS mission, though it appears some part of the local air superiority missions also come in.
-
GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: T39 - don't look at Italy
Into the Valleys - Up to T46
A shorter interlude, but one that should help place the upcoming events in context. I suspect Loki will have some things to write about shortly.
After penetrating the Appenines, Loki didn't just fall back to the Po, he continued withdrawing to a modified Vienna line. Between the choice of "Keep Heavy Forces on Italian Plains" or "Surrender North Italy", he apparently went with the latter. Initially I thought there was a backhanded blow waiting for an overextension, but to all indicators if he's planning a counterattack it will be a more than local one.
With a horror movie like sense of mounting dread, the allies continue to push into Milan, Turin, and many others while waiting for the shoe to fall.
What this means - I can honestly say for the first time this game I have absolutely no clue what my opponent is planning, but I'm sure it can't be good news for me. Too many intact elite formations have simply disappeared, all on the eve of Overlord. If I had to guess, he did some math and realized that northern Italy won't change an allied minor to a major, but one violent and bold plan may be enough to force the game in the other direction. Normally the Germans can't commit to a violent and bold plan, because they need to strip a theater to get the required resources. Well, he has stripped a theater.
Now, as the landing craft pour troops on to the beaches, we'll see if the gamble pays off. Regardless, I suspect we're in for some times of hiiiigggghhhh adventure.
A shorter interlude, but one that should help place the upcoming events in context. I suspect Loki will have some things to write about shortly.
After penetrating the Appenines, Loki didn't just fall back to the Po, he continued withdrawing to a modified Vienna line. Between the choice of "Keep Heavy Forces on Italian Plains" or "Surrender North Italy", he apparently went with the latter. Initially I thought there was a backhanded blow waiting for an overextension, but to all indicators if he's planning a counterattack it will be a more than local one.
With a horror movie like sense of mounting dread, the allies continue to push into Milan, Turin, and many others while waiting for the shoe to fall.
What this means - I can honestly say for the first time this game I have absolutely no clue what my opponent is planning, but I'm sure it can't be good news for me. Too many intact elite formations have simply disappeared, all on the eve of Overlord. If I had to guess, he did some math and realized that northern Italy won't change an allied minor to a major, but one violent and bold plan may be enough to force the game in the other direction. Normally the Germans can't commit to a violent and bold plan, because they need to strip a theater to get the required resources. Well, he has stripped a theater.
Now, as the landing craft pour troops on to the beaches, we'll see if the gamble pays off. Regardless, I suspect we're in for some times of hiiiigggghhhh adventure.
Unwelcome visitors to France
Yes, think I can say something more than - 'some allied bombers over ...'
I'd got myself out of position in N Italy when a 1-2 turned to a 3-1 (mainly disrupted elements), so I had a choice, I could divert several more elite units and stablise on the northern edge of the Appenines or do something. Now that stabilisation is not going to hold, it might take 3-6 turns to dismantle but its clear that GR has left more in Italy than most people do, so he has to take N Italy and I can't stop it.
Now this happened to fit with an idea I have had about how to defend France (or more strictly how to lose France on my terms) for some time. I'm not going to say much about that yet. The other one was rethinking naval interdiction for 1944.
With the fixed units as the Allies you have to use one or both of Belfast and Glasgow and most likely Bristol and Cardiff for preparation. So I decided to make use of the ability of naval interdiction to leave a linear path between staging base and target and gambled that GR would invade on the first clear turn in May and that I could generate a lot of interdiction in the narrow waters between Devon and Wales.
The other line of interdiction is a snake that runs up to the Isle of White and then back down towards Cherbourg. So any invasion of Normandy or east has to traverse this. My gamble is this lies behind any allied focus on interdiction immediately at the beachhead.
Between them, not going to cut naval control but will increase the attrition losses. To protect this, added in 25% of my remaining fighters.
I'd got myself out of position in N Italy when a 1-2 turned to a 3-1 (mainly disrupted elements), so I had a choice, I could divert several more elite units and stablise on the northern edge of the Appenines or do something. Now that stabilisation is not going to hold, it might take 3-6 turns to dismantle but its clear that GR has left more in Italy than most people do, so he has to take N Italy and I can't stop it.
Now this happened to fit with an idea I have had about how to defend France (or more strictly how to lose France on my terms) for some time. I'm not going to say much about that yet. The other one was rethinking naval interdiction for 1944.
With the fixed units as the Allies you have to use one or both of Belfast and Glasgow and most likely Bristol and Cardiff for preparation. So I decided to make use of the ability of naval interdiction to leave a linear path between staging base and target and gambled that GR would invade on the first clear turn in May and that I could generate a lot of interdiction in the narrow waters between Devon and Wales.
The other line of interdiction is a snake that runs up to the Isle of White and then back down towards Cherbourg. So any invasion of Normandy or east has to traverse this. My gamble is this lies behind any allied focus on interdiction immediately at the beachhead.
Between them, not going to cut naval control but will increase the attrition losses. To protect this, added in 25% of my remaining fighters.
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GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
In Which Loki Remains Crafty
If you've been following this for a touch, you'll know that Loki usually posts tons of quality screenshots and has not recently. This is because he is being very crafty at the moment and moving large formations around in secrecy. But, here's the run down:
I landed in Normandy, along the historical beaches with a modified LZ set up. The railway set up allows you to create a "Line of 9s" for interdiction around nearly the entire Cotentin, so I did, even if it meant the other hexes were generally low numbers. This was paired with the pretty predictable re-crushing of all the rail nodes near which he might be embarking or disembarking troops.
You can imagine the surprise of my riflemen when they advanced into the "pleasantly shaded woodlands" of Normandy to find minimal resistance before the base of the peninsula, with nary a panzer to be seen. Juts some infantry intermixed with security troops. This has caused my staff great consternation, and a few leading theories as to what happened.
1) THE OPTIMISTS
Clearly our deception efforts as to our landing destination, ruined rail hubs, a wall of panzer shredding interdiction, and the sheer distance involved in rapidly shifting forces from Calais where some of his non-garrison armor was waiting prevented him from quick marching to the beach-heads. We'll see a line form soon.
2) THE PESSIMISTS
They've been counting divisions and have decided they have a chance for a destructive counter attack ala Rome, only on an operational scale. We're not seeing the panzers because they're being balled into a massed fist, waiting for an incautious advance off the beaches.
3) THE WILD CARD
Aerial recon has identified an awful lot of units still sitting on rail hubs, with what look like fortifications. The Germans are about to conduct a mosaic defense across most of northern France. We're not seeing the panzers because they'll be striking arm that flows through the strongpoint matrix, retaining freedom of maneuver while we fight for endless junction towns.
If you've been following this for a touch, you'll know that Loki usually posts tons of quality screenshots and has not recently. This is because he is being very crafty at the moment and moving large formations around in secrecy. But, here's the run down:
I landed in Normandy, along the historical beaches with a modified LZ set up. The railway set up allows you to create a "Line of 9s" for interdiction around nearly the entire Cotentin, so I did, even if it meant the other hexes were generally low numbers. This was paired with the pretty predictable re-crushing of all the rail nodes near which he might be embarking or disembarking troops.
You can imagine the surprise of my riflemen when they advanced into the "pleasantly shaded woodlands" of Normandy to find minimal resistance before the base of the peninsula, with nary a panzer to be seen. Juts some infantry intermixed with security troops. This has caused my staff great consternation, and a few leading theories as to what happened.
1) THE OPTIMISTS
Clearly our deception efforts as to our landing destination, ruined rail hubs, a wall of panzer shredding interdiction, and the sheer distance involved in rapidly shifting forces from Calais where some of his non-garrison armor was waiting prevented him from quick marching to the beach-heads. We'll see a line form soon.
2) THE PESSIMISTS
They've been counting divisions and have decided they have a chance for a destructive counter attack ala Rome, only on an operational scale. We're not seeing the panzers because they're being balled into a massed fist, waiting for an incautious advance off the beaches.
3) THE WILD CARD
Aerial recon has identified an awful lot of units still sitting on rail hubs, with what look like fortifications. The Germans are about to conduct a mosaic defense across most of northern France. We're not seeing the panzers because they'll be striking arm that flows through the strongpoint matrix, retaining freedom of maneuver while we fight for endless junction towns.
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GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
Yes, very. Though we're starting to hear about very heavy rail movements near Paris from the resistance, so I'm torn between hoping he'll commit soon so I can know what's happening and hoping he'll hold off for a climactic battle later so I can get more combat power ashore and pick up some ports before facing the panzers. If I recall right, he should now have nearly 17 heavy divisions and 5 FJ divisions available...somewhere. How many of those he can support in Western France is an open question.
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EwaldvonKleist
- Posts: 2390
- Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:58 pm
- Location: Berlin, Germany
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
Screenshots please [:)]
The Library of Gary Grigsby's War in the East resources.
Do you want total war? Guide for WitE players
WitE2&RtW3 tester
Do you want total war? Guide for WitE players
WitE2&RtW3 tester
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EddyBear81
- Posts: 157
- Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:07 pm
- Location: Lille, France
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
I think you will need an Enigma machine for this. And even then, the location of Pz Div is probably "for your eye's only" at Supreme Leader Loki's HQ in East Prussia for the moment.
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist
Screenshots please [:)]
ok, up to date image of NW/NE France for T49 ...
Or, more seriously ...
There is a relatively standard set of gameplay around the Allied landings in France. Clearly a lot of variation depending on the state of the respective armies and wider VP score and so on, but essentially:
a) the Allies get ashore with ease. So most axis players now don't contest the beaches with much more than regiments to cause interdiction. A divisional wall behind can be useful for catching unwary paras;
a1) the Germans don't have enough units till the summer reinforcements and the removal of the garrison rules to do this everywhere - so you either get lucky or even worse find a powerful lodgement with lots of interdiction exactly where you don't want it
b) the German line forms, usually around the 10 hex landing zone, this leads to a grim set of turns as the Allies deal with the Pzrs. While its usually a -ve VP phase for the allies, if they know what they are doing in the end greater resources and airpower will tilt this phase in their favour.
b1) the early AARs where the Axis side managed to hold this line I think were more a case of inexperience and/or being overly concerned about the VP loss for allied casualties
c) with the elite units wrecked and the infantry increasingly useless, a German retreat towards Belgium
d) the Allied advance is scary, you can get very spread out, your safety net is the results of (b)
So ... if we skip (b), what happens?
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RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
I wonder if we will be seeing something along the lines of pre 1914 military defensive theory over the next turns. Namely a system of fortified hubs or regions which can serve as anchor points for mobile operations by field units. How a system like this is sited to cover key rail hubs and major ports would force some major choices on Allied strategy.
On another note, as I have never faced a live opponent in this game any theory I have on building the "better" Atlantic wall is now largely obsolete?
On another note, as I have never faced a live opponent in this game any theory I have on building the "better" Atlantic wall is now largely obsolete?
"Everything else being equal, the army with the best looking uniforms usually losses." Murphy's law of military history.
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GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
So...the odds of stopping a determined allied assault from landing are practically non-existent, as I found when I was on the other side. You could, in theory, dig every hex in an area to level 3 forts if you were willing to spend a lot of administrative effort early. However, the ruling says that on landing only the best unit is used to determine a hold vs retreat, and it’s effective CV is divided by at least three. Possibly more if adjacent beaches have fallen, which basically keeps cutting it in half for each hex.
A level three fort multiplies the CV by three, so in a best case you have the post combat CV of one division to hold a hex. During D-Day, the allies will hit you with a 4+ hex wide assault of double stacked divisions, each one supported by intensive naval gunfire and no doubt an aerial hammering. And they will use high quality formations with 12+ CV in each division.
For comparison, a top of the line panzer division might have 20 CV at its high water mark, but you’re probably looking at heavy divisions with 12-15 CV. So unless you pick the right hexes to fortify (each one is basically an entire turns AP), drive panzers into the forts while somehow managing to maintain garrison reqs, manage to severely disrupt the allied amphibious path, and then manage to stop your opponent from simply blasting away your formations on the beach with the entire Air Force, you won’t hold. And you have to do that across the entire landing, because the hexes cascade with the CV penalties.
A level three fort multiplies the CV by three, so in a best case you have the post combat CV of one division to hold a hex. During D-Day, the allies will hit you with a 4+ hex wide assault of double stacked divisions, each one supported by intensive naval gunfire and no doubt an aerial hammering. And they will use high quality formations with 12+ CV in each division.
For comparison, a top of the line panzer division might have 20 CV at its high water mark, but you’re probably looking at heavy divisions with 12-15 CV. So unless you pick the right hexes to fortify (each one is basically an entire turns AP), drive panzers into the forts while somehow managing to maintain garrison reqs, manage to severely disrupt the allied amphibious path, and then manage to stop your opponent from simply blasting away your formations on the beach with the entire Air Force, you won’t hold. And you have to do that across the entire landing, because the hexes cascade with the CV penalties.
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GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
I am discussing with Loki how to best continue to AAR while he has super-secret panzer moves. Though he’s exposed some of them now.
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EddyBear81
- Posts: 157
- Joined: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:07 pm
- Location: Lille, France
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
You are really keeping us on the edge of our seats ! Great storytelling, sirs.
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
Is it possible to let us know what happens with a lag of a few turns?
John Barr
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
we're having a chat about how to do this, we may do a bit of a large dump once the game moves onto the next phase.
Whether that works best as turn by turn or as a larger block may be a bit clearer once this is resolved.
All I'll say at the moment is the British are bravely hiding behind the Americans ...
and we're discussing Proust (which makes some sense in context [;)]) in the surrounding emails
Whether that works best as turn by turn or as a larger block may be a bit clearer once this is resolved.
All I'll say at the moment is the British are bravely hiding behind the Americans ...
and we're discussing Proust (which makes some sense in context [;)]) in the surrounding emails
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
Oh everyone who is anyone knows that all war games are best discussed in the context of Sartre. 
Can't wait to see what is happening!
Can't wait to see what is happening!
John Barr
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GloriousRuse
- Posts: 923
- Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:51 am
RE: Unwelcome visitors to France
July 1st. Loki commits his long awaited panzer attack to the south of Paris - where we've been waiting for it with grim resignation to the coming cost on one hand, and a couple corps of armor on the other. Titanic tank and air battles rock the Loire Plains as each side hurries additional forces forward, the Kursk in the West begins...