Taming the Tiger or Slaying the Bear......loki100 (Axis) vs Speedy (SU)

[Speedysteve]

Well. Firstly Comrades apologies for the lack of updates. It's been a frenetic time travelling the Union keeping morale up by personal Vodka drop-offs (in reality, a few days away, sorting a new job and a potential house move out)...


There's not a mass to report form the Soviet side. A few counter-attacks where I can, building up defences and reserves, appointing new Army leaders. Fortified Units have been placed and will be placed at key places around Leningrad and Sevastapol for example. I'm fairly confident I will keep Leningrad now....It's heavily defended and well supplied with Vodka and 7.62mm bullets...Rostov is also holding an Autumn party in the rain.....mud-wrestling.....naked dancing.....you know....the usual mud party things.

Herr Loki has posted the current losses and OOB (which I'm relatively happy about) so here's my current Production view...trucks are ok for now. Gradual upgrade of the VVS continues....

[loki100]

T19 - 26 October 1941

So lets start with the weather – I've never seen this in any previous game but everywhere its light rain and light mud (some heavy around Leningrad) ... file that under undeserved luck, maybe it won't snow till February? There is a lot of heavy rain to the west of the combat regions in the Baltic states and along the 1941 borders.

Next turn looks like heavy rain.

Unusually the Soviets were exceptionally well behaved apart from a few bombers who decided to disturb my supply deliveries.

Odd pattern to the super-depots this week.

Not surprised that Dnepropetrovsk took on relatively little given how much it received last week, Smolensk filled out but almost nothing to Pskov. Wonder if rail capacity is the limit here in that it can't fill out 3 such depots each week – and do all the secondary supply runs?

Note that each is well protected just in case of Soviet bombing raids.



So opted not to do very much. Took over an abandoned Kursk, hit anything in the front lines that seemed weak.

Which mostly paid off.



Very cautious about trying to take cities where the time bonus has expired but where its going to be easy for the Soviets to pick up the +6 in the winter, here that is Orel, Rzhev and Kalinin.



The other reason to be cautious is that attrition is starting to bite – now most are disabled but I need to improve my logistics so that they actually can return to their units. This is why my manpower pool is so large – that is actually not a good sign.



So I have an idea for November, but not sure it is worth committing to.

[Beethoven1]

ORIGINAL: loki100

Very cautious about trying to take cities where the time bonus has expired but where its going to be easy for the Soviets to pick up the +6 in the winter, here that is Orel, Rzhev and Kalinin.

It seems problematic and gamey that players are incentivized to NOT take cities such as Orel/Rzhev/Kalinin by the VP system. Perhaps there might be some way that could be changed?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Beethoven1

ORIGINAL: loki100

Very cautious about trying to take cities where the time bonus has expired but where its going to be easy for the Soviets to pick up the +6 in the winter, here that is Orel, Rzhev and Kalinin.

It seems problematic and gamey that players are incentivized to NOT take cities such as Orel/Rzhev/Kalinin by the VP system. Perhaps there might be some way that could be changed?

not sure why, my opponent did a good job of stalling my final offensives and I am trying to pick a defensible line.

If I had the +6 time bonus then it would have been worth taking them. As it is I'll leave them to 1942 (no bonus) and gamble on holding them late enough into 1943 to deny the Soviets their bonus - I certainly can't hold a city at the edge of my logistcs network, surrounded by clear terrain at this phase of the war

[Beethoven1]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Beethoven1

ORIGINAL: loki100

Very cautious about trying to take cities where the time bonus has expired but where its going to be easy for the Soviets to pick up the +6 in the winter, here that is Orel, Rzhev and Kalinin.

It seems problematic and gamey that players are incentivized to NOT take cities such as Orel/Rzhev/Kalinin by the VP system. Perhaps there might be some way that could be changed?

not sure why, my opponent did a good job of stalling my final offensives and I am trying to pick a defensible line.

If I had the +6 time bonus then it would have been worth taking them. As it is I'll leave them to 1942 (no bonus) and gamble on holding them late enough into 1943 to deny the Soviets their bonus - I certainly can't hold a city at the edge of my logistcs network, surrounded by clear terrain at this phase of the war

If the reason for not taking them is just that it would strain your logistics network too much, that is one thing, and that makes some sense and is reasonable.

However, if the reason for not taking them is just to manipulate the VP system, then to me that points to a problem with the way the VP system is constructed. The Germany player should not have an incentive to not take cities in 1941 just because that means the Soviets will end up with more VPs!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Beethoven1
...

If the reason for not taking them is just that it would strain your logistics network too much, that is one thing, and that makes some sense and is reasonable.

However, if the reason for not taking them is just to manipulate the VP system, then to me that points to a problem with the way the VP system is constructed. The Germany player should not have an incentive to not take cities in 1941 just because that means the Soviets will end up with more VPs!

there are a load of cities near to the current front that I could take, and will lose in the winter. I've an idea that I can hold onto most of what I have (in VP terms) apart from Kursk.

the way the VP system works is:

a) I get (or don't) a time bonus for capture, that has gone for Orel, Kalinin, Rzhev and Rostov
b) the Soviets get a time bonus for one of two outcomes
bi) early recapture
bii) never losing when the initiative changes

So my opponent gets, rightly, a potential reward for very much 'winning' the last 5-6 turns. Now given the time frames, there is nothing I can do about Kalinin and Rostov (as the Soviet recapture point is in a few turns). Depending on my plans/potential for 1942 I will probably take Orel and Rzhev (with no time bonus but it still counts to the HWM), I can gamble on clinging to them late enough into 1943 to deny any time bonus.

Now the likely outcome is that I will not hold those cities late enough so pick up a net -24 on this set (which really hurts me for the late 1944 check) but if I hang back I have an outside chance - or in other words the VP system sets a constraint but also leaves a degree of player agency?

[Nix77]

The consequences of the initiative & HWM VP system is quite difficult to visualize, and I fully understand Beethoven's worries.

But isn't it still so that at any point, if you can conquer a city and be able to hold on to it long enough, it's better option to capture it than leave it for the enemy? Or is the risk of an early recapture too highlighted in the VP system? The enemy getting permanent bonus points for even a short recapture sounds a bit gamey to me.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Nix77

The consequences of the initiative & HWM VP system is quite difficult to visualize, and I fully understand Beethoven's worries.

But isn't it still so that at any point, if you can conquer a city and be able to hold on to it long enough, it's better option to capture it than leave it for the enemy? Or is the risk of an early recapture too highlighted in the VP system? The enemy getting permanent bonus points for even a short recapture sounds a bit gamey to me.

The VP system is punishing me for making a mess of the Autumn phase.

I have 2 undesirable choices. Grab Orel now, there is no way I can hold it over the winter so the Soviets get a net +6 guarenteed as they retook it before their set date. Or take it in 1942 (assuming I can mount an offensive), I have an outside chance of clinging to it long enough to deny them their time bonus. If I needed the 10 for the HWM score I'd have to take it now to stay in the game, fortunately I'm not in that position.

If I never take it then the outcome is even worse. Not only do they get the +6 when the initiative changes, I never get the base 10 in my score to boost the HWM (so initiative will change earlier and my chances of holding on for a win at the end of 1944 become minimal).

[Speedysteve]

Well Comrades....this is officially the worst (as in not heavy often enough) Autumn rain I've seen in my life. Comrade Stalin has clearly not consumed enough vodka...I hope he consumes more before the Winter starts! I didn't order any attacks across the theatre this week as it was heavy rain everywhere.

On the plus side my OOB continues to grow as men are called up to active duty and given a pitch fork....errrr rifle and sent to the front line.

The AP allocation has continued to (mainly) be spent on sending better friends to command HQ's. Now the Fronts are settled and sorted (for now) I've sent key commanders to important Army HQ's. I'm now in the process of gradually going down the list (literally using the CR) starting to replace the worst commanders for better ones....it will all add up in the long run.

[loki100]

T20 – 2 November 1941

So finally heavy rain and heavy mud across the entire front. Looks like the same next turn over the north but cold in the south.

Most of my small moves were designed to make sure there were no mobile units in the front lines where the Soviets can knock off their CPP.



Picking up on last turn's logistic question, this time Pskov was allocated a substantial amount, the other 2 relying on stored freight. Does support a view that the Axis actually lack the trains to constantly refill 3 major depots each turn.



But very little of it moving beyond the depots.



Overall not exactly very threatening as far as Moscow goes.



Or in the south.



OOB – have given 2A command of most of what was the infantry in 2 and 3 PG as my focus becomes more defensive. Size of the Soviet reserve is indication of bad things to come, especially when they get their 500,000 man bonus.



And as I ran the end-turn, it looked like winter had arrived instead.

[Speedysteve]

Well definitely the strangest weather every. 1 week of proper heavy rain then blizzard across the North and Center, cold in the South. However with in not being December yet (no Axis malus) and the snow level not being deep enough it actually means not the right tiem for me to launch my theatre wide counter-attack. Just the one spoiling attack in the Center as troops are brought up, rested, gaining CPP and vodka for the upcoming fun.

[Speedysteve]

Whilst the silly Goose Steppers can't put an Opel Blitz in the right gear we're swimming in Vodka in most areas...Uncle Joe is very happy with my logistic prowess[;)]

[loki100]

T21 – 9 November 1941

Somebody really can't count ....



And the weather carries on being rather bizarre – blizzards across the nothern part of the map, snow in the Ukraine. To make it even more weird, the ground conditions are clear.

If I believe my forecast, its blizzards again next week.

So start tucking up the LW for winter. Last turn a lot of the LB and longer ranged recon went to the reserve, this turn I just put it all to rest but the weaker formations also go the reserves. No point paying the supply costs.

On which subject, Dnepropetrovsk and Smolensk still have a lot of stored freight (I've dismantled those super-depots to try and improve coverage up to the front).

Pskov has a lot of turn over as it releases its stores and replaces it (the FBD was left here).



So the only systematic offensive was at Leningrad, I'd like to properly isolate the city. Reasonably sure I can then hold on here given Soviet supply problems and the terrain.



Infantry of PG3 launched some spoiling attacks, pulled out quite a lot here to refit.



Much the same in the Ukraine, may as well rout/shatter where I can and cut as many rail lines as possible.



Produced a reasonable loss ratio as well.



Not that it makes much difference to the big numbers. This is not going to be a fun winter as they will be easily over 4.5m by mid-December.

Have done a fair bit of re-organising to balance out CP loads, note that only the PG are left on assault.



2 early blizzard weeks is not good news, mainly as it starts to generate snow levels (& its heavy snow that really cripples the axis forces).

Really paying the price for not working for pockets early on.

[Speedysteve]

Err....Herr Loki not sure what you're on about[&:]

Seems pretty accurate to me[&:]

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Speedysteve

Err....Herr Loki not sure what you're on about[&:]

Seems pretty accurate to me[&:]
...

uhuh ... I'll send an abacus across the front lines to help out

[Speedysteve]

It's ok....I've enough fingers on my soldiers to use instead.....but thanks Comrade

[loki100]

T22 – 16 November 1941

So a second week with front wide blizzards, at least its still mostly light snow on the ground.

Only Soviet antics around Leningrad.



With a suitable response.



Supply situation deteriotating. At least some major depots are fairly full. Also good to see replacement manpower moving up (in time to get frostbite).



Could do with some more tanks being built.



Though at least I'm not losing many. 12,000 of my manpower losses were in the logistics phase – so they are added to the Berlin vacation force.



No pictures of most of the map as I am now setting up defensively.

[Speedysteve]

Same....I can't post much as Stalin has issued theatre wide bans for something secret[X(]

BUT....talking of tanks....THESE are tanks....not your silly tractors...

[Speedysteve]

Winnie has even given me some of these babies....remember Arras?[;)]

[loki100]

T23 – 23 November 1941

Soviets are getting confident, pressing up to the front lines but not actually do very much to live up to their reputations.

At least the weather turned to snow so on-ground its not yet deep snow and it may just stay as snow next week.



So here we are, just waiting. Reasonable front line (length, terrain, fortifications and reserves) on this sector. My suspicion is the Soviets won't be able to sustain an offensive here.

Unless they really make it their core effort and even then they will have supply problems.



Not too bad here, I've managed to rebuild both Pzr Grps so that is an additional problem for them. Don't want to have to commit them seriously but at least the capacity is there. Not sure if the Soviets see this as particularly important though. There's not much for them to retake of any real value and I'm scarcely threatening Moscow.



Not great but in most places I have local reserves and can just pull back. Problem is both Kursk and Stalino are in the front lines and worth an effort to regain. Kharkov is a little bit safer.



Taking the good news where I can find it – 2,500 functional tanks is not a bad position given what has happened.

Clearing the damaged group is important as I won't get many real reinforcements for a while.



I'm going to let this fall behind the game a little bit more from here. Conscious that stuff is set up for the medium turn that I'd rather became a surprise.