1942 - The year of victory? (SOV AI)

[Jukipo]

Turn 77
December 6, 1942

The situation near Stalingrad becomes increasingly difficult every day.

Voronezh was recaptured.

[Jukipo]

Turn 78
December 13, 1942

Stalingrad was lost. We are withdrawing in good order. The enemy lost 12000 men in this sector. Our losses were 3000 men.

Voronezh was lost again.

[Jukipo]

Turn 78
December 13, 1942

Army Group Don

[Jukipo]

Turn 79
December 20, 1942

Astrachan - Baku railroad was cut near Gudermes.

[Jukipo]

Turn 80
December 27, 1942

Soviet offensive continues in Stalingrad sector.

[Jukipo]

Turn 81
January 3rd, 1943

It's 1943. The soviet offensive has been going on for two months. Let's take a look about the losses between turns 72 and 81.

Axis losses:

men 226,000
guns 4,400
AFV 1,300
planes 750

Soviet losses:

men 734,000
guns 12,600
AFV 5,500
planes 3,300

[Rosencrantus]

What exactly do you think of your position in the war right now? I'm about to begin my 1942 campaign into the south and I'm looking at yours as one scenario that might happen to me myself.

[Jukipo]

What exactly do you think of your position in the war right now?

We are not losing. Last summer was hard for the Soviets. They lost a lot of manpower. Soviet on map forces are only 4,5 million men. We have a total air superiority.

We have not achieved a sudden victory. It was very close in October Check Date. Stalingrad fell a week too late.
Right now, the Soviet offensive is going on and we have had to give some ground. However, it is like last winter. They assault and take a little ground. But it will not change the big picture. We are slowly strangling the Soviet juggernaut to death. In the next summer we are going to be stronger than ever.

Our next chance for sudden victory is April 1st. We have now 723 VPs. We would need Voronezh, Stalingrad and Makhachkala to reach 775 VP. It is not likely.

The last chance for sudden victory is July 1st. Makhachkala and Baku are worth of 80 VP.

If we can’t capture Baku by July, then the war goes on to 1945. I'm sure we are going to take Baku in 1943. I can’t see how the Soviets could recover and reach Berlin by 1945.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Jukipo

...

The last chance for sudden victory is July 1st. Makhachkala and Baku are worth of 80 VP.

If we can’t capture Baku by July, then the war goes on to 1945. I'm sure we are going to take Baku in 1943. I can’t see how the Soviets could recover and reach Berlin by 1945.
...

this is not quite right, but maybe a bit obscured by the VP display at this stage. The Soviets need to match your HWM by December 1944 as:

"If on 31 December 1944 the Soviets fail to have matched the Axis high water mark score and the Western allies control no German territory, this is an Axis Major Victory"

The other thing in your favour is the initiative shift can only happen if your current VP is at least 10% below the HWM (or on 2 July). So you've around 30 spare against this which may give you a shot at the 1 July test if you can manage a strong spring counter-attack?

[carlkay58]

But the initiative automatically switches to the Soviets on 1-Jul-43 regardless of VPs does it not?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: carlkay58

But the initiative automatically switches to the Soviets on {actually after} 1-Jul-43 regardless of VPs does it not?

yes that is hard-wired, so from where he is now Jukipo has 2 routes to win, meet the sudden victory on 1 July or set such a high HWM that he gets a win at the end of December 44 (or the Berlin conditions but I can't see him losing the December test).

[Jukipo]

yes that is hard-wired, so from where he is now Jukipo has 2 routes to win, meet the sudden victory on 1 July or set such a high HWM that he gets a win at the end of December 44

Ok, good to know. I didn't know December 44 test.

[Jukipo]

Turn 81
January 3rd, 1943

Gudermes was captured.

[Jukipo]

Turn 82
January 10, 1943

Soviet offensive continues

[Jukipo]

Turn 83
January 17th, 1942

We have surrounded several enemy formations in the mountains.

[Jukipo]

Turn 84
January 24th, 1943

9th PzD captured Khasav-Yurt. Only 40 miles to the shore of the Caspian Sea.

[Jukipo]

Turn 85
January 31, 1943

Heavy enemy pressure between Voronezh and Stalingrad. We have SS Panzer Korps in reserve near Voroshilovgrad.

[Jukipo]

Turn 85
January 31, 1943

[Jukipo]

Turn 87
February 14, 1943

Widening the gap between Caucasus and the rest of Soviet Union.

[Jukipo]

Turn 88
February 21, 1943

We are slowly withdrawing in the Stalingrad sector.