Not sure there is any descrepency. You state a source that the 64th Sentai lost 14 a/c to a2a. Since the 64th was the "only" unit in the CBI that operated Oscars during the life of the AVG then this would indicate only 14 Oscars were lost in entire theater during this time. Couple this with your stated 14 P-40s lost a2a or even the above 12 P-40s to a2a and you have for all practical purposes a 1:1 loss ratio between the Oscar vs the P-40, give or take a few possible P-40s shot down by Nates or conversely a few oscars shot down by buffaloes/Hurricanes. I do not recall how many if any AVG were lost to bomber defensive fire.
That's an interesting point. Vis a vis Ki-43s vs. P-40s then the results would be approximately 1:1, with the P-40s along the way also accounting for some number of Nates and bombers. Have you those numbers available? Been a while since I read Ford and I wonder whether his revised talley of about 112 Japanese a/c downed was based on ALL of the Japanese records or whether he looked only at the 64th Sentai records and applied some kind of correction factor. (Note: Ford, however, attributed 14 Oscars in A2A vs the AVG, not to the theater so, the give or take might be accounted for by the difference between Ford's 14 and Nikademus' ne Shore's 19.)
The overall kill ratio would be what... 5:1 to 10:1 favoring the AVG? And we'd conclude what...
(a) The Ki-43+pilot combination was as good as the AVG P-40+pilot combination, or
(b) The Ki-43+pilot combination was as good as the AVG P-40+pilot combination when the P-40s were flying a dual purpose intercept (break through or otherwise hold off enemy escorts in order to shoot down enemy bombers). But then, these sorts of actions comprise the bulk of the AVG's engagements... which leaves precious little data to evaluate a trend for (a).
All of this sounds eerily like the Cactus AF problem... how does one account for the dual roles of defensive interceptors engaging an escorted enemy bomber formation.
Four others were bounced by a forewarned AVG, while the Oscars were on a strafeing run of the AVGs airfield.
A fair point but it's still A2A. Similar sorts of events make the A6M look pretty good against the Dutch P-40s in the NEI. Something like 20 Dutch P40s lost in A2A there, but of those (IIRC dim recesses of memory), something like 8 were shot down in one engagement when bounced in their landing pattern.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.
Didn't we have this conversation already?