Dream Features

Gary Grigsby's strategic level wargame covering the entire War in the Pacific from 1941 to 1945 or beyond.

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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by Ranger-75
You folks are underestimating the non-combat plane losses in your discussions.

Non-combat losses far exceeded combat losses, especially on unimproved airfields (like what was all over the Pacific) and on Carriers.

As an example (all references are to Dunnigan's Victory at Sea):

The F4U Corsair. Corsairs shot down 2,140 enemy aircraft (of course not all of them enemy fighters) while losing 189. That's over 10:1 but by mid 1943-45, the USN and USMC had the better training and aircraft. Still, 10:1.

But, other losses,
340 to enemy AA
164 in landing accidents
900 (approx) in other "operational mishaps"

Even lumping the the AA losses with the air combat losses meant that non-combat losses were about twice as high as combat losses.

And this was later in the war when the US had made improvements in all areas or operations. Earlier in the war, both sides would likely have experienced greater non combat losses.

Other Kill Ratios:
The F4F Wildcat:
Dunnigan quotes a 5.9:1 air combat kill ration for the wildcat in air combat (again, not all enemy fighters), half the Corsair, but still very good for a "inferior" plane. It wasn't really inferior.

The F6F Hellcat:
Hellcats shot down 6,477 enemy aircraft losing 270 to enemy air action. That's almost 24:1
:eek:

The SBD Daultless:
Even the SBD Daultless gave better than it got versus enemy fighters (the Zero was the only fighter it usually ran up against). SBDs shot down 138 Japanese aircraft while losing only 80 to emeny fighters, over the course of the entire war.
Ranger

The Wildcat was "inferior", but the USN nullified this with "superior" tactics ( two plane formation, Thatch weave and such)

Are you sure SBDs shot down 139 zeros? I can believe they shot down vals and kates and other such planes, but ZEROS??? :confused:
Jeremy Pritchard
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Post by Jeremy Pritchard »

The IJAAF and IJNAF were notorious for sending out bomber raids without fighter cover, especially during the I-Go offensives and Kamikaze raids.

When calculating air-to-air kills, especially against the Japanese, you will realize that a vast majority of kills by the F6F and F4U from 1944 onward were Kamikaze kills. These kamikaze offered virtually no resistance and put up only pitiful fights. Hundreds were expended in individual raids, the vast majority got nailed by CAP, and most of the remaining by AA, with only a small percentege ever getting through. Also, many planes expended on Kamikaze missions were horrobily obsolete (Ki-30, Ki-27, etc..)

Here is a blurb from a Weapons and Warfare book on the Ki-100 "The 244th Sentai commanded by Major Teruhiko Koyabashi claimed the destruction of seven Chance Vought F4U Corsairs on June 3, 1945, and claimed 12 Hellcat Kills on July 25 without losses." Judging by this statement and ratio, the unexperienced 244th Sentai (spent most of the war at the homeland) managed to take on and easily defeat USN fighters with the Ki-100. In fact, many claims and losses are enflated or deflated by both sides. Many accepted kills were actually claimed by two or more different pilots.

However, when you look at the A6M you might see it being a positive kill ratio as well, when you take into account ALL kills. Stating just the USN side will not give the clear picture. Maybe the A6M had a 4:1 kill ratio, which compares very favourably with the F4F. Possibly the Ki-84 and Ki-100 had 14:1 kill ratios, which makes the F4U and F6F look like trainers!

There is no doubt that the US were able to shoot down more Japanese planes then they lost, but it may not be due specifically to better aircraft. Tactics can result in the poor use of aircraft. Sending carrier planes to be used on land based missions without sufficient support or direction (operation I-Go) resulted in the destruction of the well trained 2nd Generation of IJNAF.

During the Battle of Britain the Luftwaffe had the better experienced, larger, and probably better equipped air force, yet had losses much higher then their enemy. This was primarily due to the fact that the attacker (the Luftwaffe, and in the early part of the war the IJNAF) could not rescue their downed pilots, plus had the added points against them by having to battle after hours of flying time (which are exhausting) while your enemy engages minutes after leaving the ground. The Allies had radar much earlier in the war (in the Pacific and Europe), which meant that their fighters were intercepting more enemy aircraft then their opponents.

Looking at straight numbers cannot tell the exact circumstances, espcecially when these numbers span over a long period, and under ever changing circumstances.
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by Jeremy Pritchard
Regarding the Battleship fleets...

The IJN was outnumbered, however, its battleships were "better".

The Nagatos were better then the Colorados in speed and durability.

The Fuso/Ise classes were better then the contemporary USN 14" Battleships because of their speed (25-26 kts vs. 21 kts), as well as their firepower (2 more guns then the Nevada/Texas class) even though they had an equal number of guns as the Pennsylvania and Tennessee class, the Japanese mounted theirs on 6 turrets of 2 guns, while the USN had theirs on 4 turrets of 3 guns. This is better because if a turret is knocked out (happens a lot in battle), then the Japanese lose less guns then if an American battleship was hit.

The Kongo class, even though under armoured, faired VERY well. the Kirishima was able to battle both the Washington and South Dakota (I believe) and survive fairly long (and battered up the South Dakota fairly well!). They were GREAT carrier escorts, and superb Battle Cruisers (they could easily deal with USN Cruisers).

Before the arrival of the North Carolinas, the USN battlefleet suffered from being slow and poorly equipped. They had NO large vessel to escort their carriers until the new battleships arrived. The Japanese ships also out sped US ships by 4-5 kts, which really counts when engaging in battle. Had the USN and IJN actually fought a real surface engagement with their battlefleets, the IJN would have had superior ships to the USN. Both sides had ancient battleships, but the Japanese were much better at making them capable of fighting very well 20 years after they were built. The US never used their Pre-War battleships as much other then bombardment vessels, not because of an abundance of new battleships, but because theirs were too slow, and in need of years of refitting to reach the levels of the IJN battleships. By early 1942 the USN had around 6 Pre-War battleships in the Pacific, but were all left on the West Coast.
Jeremy

The Nagoto's were better in speed, slightly better in armor,but according the "Fleets of WWII", were somewhat less mechanically reliable. So I would clasify them as only slightly better than the Colorodos.

The Fuso's ands Ise's were not better than the US contempories Pensyvania's Missippi, Tennessee's. They had a slightly better speed of 24-25 knots compared to 21.5 knots of the US ships. However they were considerably less well protected. 12" belt, 2.25" deck adn 12" turret. As compared to 13.3"belt, 3.5"deck and 18" turret of the US BBs. The US BBs were also more seaworthy and more stable gun platforms. Contrary to your statement, The 6 turret layout was in fact "inferior". 6-2gun turrets are heaveir than 4-3gun turrets. The Midship turrets have a limited arch of fire. The layout requires more amor to cover the vital areas. Thats why all navies including the IJN went to the 4 and 3 turtet layout for all their new BBs.

The Kongos, were very under armored, having only an 8" belt, 2.75 deck and 8" turret. The Hei was so severly damaged by only 8" and 5" shells; US aircraft were able to later sink it. The Kirshima as litterally blown apart by the Washington. The Kongo was sunk by only 2 torpedo hits. They were very good carrier escort ships however. Just really cant be considered BBs.

All in all the 3-4 knot advantage enjoyed by the IJN BBs is nulified with the USN BBs better protection. The Kongos were BCs and history has proven that speed was no supstitute for amor when came to surface combat. 3 British BCs were litterally blown out of the water at Jutland. Likewise the Hood against the Bismark. the kirshima against the Washington.

Conclusion: the Nagatos were slightly better than the Colordos. The Ise and Fuso were equal to the Pensyvania and slightly infferior to the Missippis's and Tennessee's
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Post by CynicAl »

Originally posted by Jeremy Pritchard
Regarding the Battleship fleets...

The IJN was outnumbered, however, its battleships were "better".

The Nagatos were better then the Colorados in speed and durability.

The Fuso/Ise classes were better then the contemporary USN 14" Battleships because of their speed (25-26 kts vs. 21 kts), as well as their firepower (2 more guns then the Nevada/Texas class) even though they had an equal number of guns as the Pennsylvania and Tennessee class, the Japanese mounted theirs on 6 turrets of 2 guns, while the USN had theirs on 4 turrets of 3 guns. This is b etter because if a turret is knocked out (happens a lot in battle), then the Japanese lose less guns then if an American battleship was hit.

The Kongo class, even though under armoured, faired VERY well. the Kirishima was able to battle both the Washington and South Dakota (I believe) and survive fairly long (and battered up the South Dakota fairly well!). They were GREAT carrier escorts, and superb Battle Cruisers (they could easily deal with USN Cruisers).

Before the arrival of the North Carolinas, the USN battlefleet suffered from being slow and poorly equipped. They had NO large vessel to escort their carriers until the new battleships arrived. The Japanese ships also out sped US ships by 4-5 kts, which really counts when engaging in battle. Had the USN and IJN actually fought a real surface engagement with their battlefleets, the IJN would have had superior ships to the USN. Both sides had ancient battleships, but the Japanese were much better at making them capable of fighting very well 20 years after they were built. The US never used their Pre-War battleships as much other then bombardment vessels, not because of an abundance of new battleships, but because theirs were too slow, and in need of years of refitting to reach the levels of the IJN battleships. By early 1942 the USN had around 6 Pre-War battleships in the Pacific, but were all left on the West Coast.
The Nagatos, as all IJN BBs in this period, were handicapped by their "diving" shells, which were actually designed to splash short of the target and then continue underwater in the hopes of scoring hits below the waterline (and, it was hoped, below the armored belt). Unfortunately, optimizing the shell design for this feature (which proved to be completely useless in practice, as NO such hits were EVER recorded with the special shells) seriously impeded AP performance. The Colorados, though never upgraded to handle the "superheavy" Mk8 16" shells, still had a much better gun/shell combination than Nagato. The US ships also sported thicker armor on the belt, conning tower, turrets, and barbettes; and as the war wore on, increasingly better fire control as well.

Fuso had two more guns and was noticeably faster than its US contemporary, Nevada, but was less well protected. The Fuso also shared with the rest of the IJN battle line the handicap of inferior AP shell performance, and increasingly inferior fire control as the war progressed. The Ise class basically repeated the Fusos, but their contemporaries were the US New Mexico class, which had a more modern armor scheme.

I must also strongly disagree with your statement that distributing the main battery across six turrets was a good thing. Yes, it allows you to preserve a greater portion of your firepower in the event of disabling turret hits, but by increasing the number of turrets you simultaneously increase the target area and therefore the likelihood of such hits. In that sense, it's a wash. In another sense, though, it's very much NOT a wash. Spreading the main battery over six turrets greatly increases the length of the ship's vitals, and thus greatly increases the weight of armor needed to protect them to a given standard. Concentration allows superior protection to be afforded at a reduced weight penalty.

The Kongo class managed to be the most useful elements of the Japanese battlefleet in WW2, serving in capacities for which their newer stablemates were judged too slow, too uneconomical, or too valuable. But they were seriously underarmored, barely able to withstand cruiser fire; with only 8 14" rifles, they were also seriously underarmed by the standards of the 1940s. Despite their speed advantage, they'd be meat on the table for any USN BB from at least New York on. Indeed, a couple of cruisers managed to bite off Hiei (so much for "easily able to deal with..."); and Kirishima only did as well as she did because South Dakota suffered a (self-inflicted) casualty in engineering that knocked out all electrical power in the ship at the start of the battle. When Washington managed to get an unobstructed shot, Kirishima got clobbered fast.

Before the arrival of the North Carolinas in the PTO, the USN battlefleet suffered from being attacked where they swung at anchor in peacetime, putting most of the BBs out of commission for varying lengths of time. The lack of BBs suitable for CV escort wasn't perceived as a problem, because CVs were supposed to support the BBs, not vice versa - cruisers were supposed to fill the escorting roles. In practice, it turned out that BBs made great AA escorts; but that wasn't what anyone, including the IJN, originally intended.

The speed advantage of the IJN battlefleet over the old Standards is of relatively little consequence once the decision has been made to give battle - fast or slow, similar gun ranges mean that bringing the enemy under fire requires exposing yourself to his fire in turn. Once the fleets start trading blows, the firepower, protection, FC, and sheer numbers advantages of the US ships make the outcome nearly certain. Prewar IJN planners knew that - that's the reasoning behind the heavy Japanese emphasis on "super" weapons, such as the Long Lance torpedos, the "diving" shells, and the Yamato class BBs. That's also the reason why Japanese plans for the "Decisive Battle" grew increasingly (and overly) complex, and ever more dependant on freakishly good luck, impossibly good C4I, and a totally cooperative opponent acting exactly as their script decreed. If the pre-war battlefleets of Japan and the US had met in a Tsushima-style engagement, the US would have been hurt. But the IJN would have been annihilated.
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CynicAl
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Post by CynicAl »

Heh. I need to type faster. And perhaps not take dinner breaks in the middle of posting. When I started typing the above, Tim's reply wasn't up yet...

Sorry for the repetition.
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by CynicAl
Heh. I need to type faster. And perhaps not take dinner breaks in the middle of posting. When I started typing the above, Tim's reply wasn't up yet...

Sorry for the repetition.
No apologies needed:) I didnt know about those diving shells. Were all IJN AP shells this type? Or did they have normal APs also? I also concur, that pre-war dotorine dictated that the carries support (ie scout) for the BBs. So amor protection not speed was paramount in USN planners eyes.

Not so sure that pre-war USN wins a Tshima style Battle though. The Japanese plans to use the Long lance Torps would have been devasting to the battleline. Even their BBs had Torps.
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Post by CynicAl »

Re: Diving shells. As far as I know, all Japanese AP shells in service from @ the mid-30's on were this type. Stocks of the older shells (at least the 16" ones) were converted to 800kg bombs for the B5Ns.

Ironically, the IJN would probably have had a better chance in a straight-up brawl ala Tsushima than if they actually tried to put their ghastly "Decisive Battle" scenario into effect. The thing was an abomination, plain and simple. It's almost hard to pick out the worst feature, there are so many to choose from - divided forces, overcomplication; in short, all the usual suspects of wartime IJN planning - but I think it's probably the assumption that the USN would blithely play along with their script, steaming fat, dumb, and happy (and oddly unescorted), full speed ahead right into the jaws of their trap, without reacting at all.

The most likely result of implementing this deeply flawed plan would be the destruction in detail of all IJN "light" forces (everything up to and including the Kongos) as the dozen-plus penny-packet groupings were shot to pieces in the preliminary Night Battle phase, which would savage the US escorts (mostly by gunfire, rather than the Long Lances*) but leave the BBs largely unmolested. The next morning, the IJN battle line would be ravaged by a much-less-damaged-than-expected US battle fleet, while the Japanese CO stood scratched his head and wondered why none of his escorts had rejoined.

*The Long Lance was a ship-killer, no mistake: fast, long-ranged, and powerful. But IJN doctrine for their use was less impressive. There's an interesting analysis of this at http://www.warships1.com/W-Tech/tech-067.htm
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Post by CynicAl »

Made a mistake earlier: The IJN recorded exactly ONE underwater hit with the Type 91 "diving" shell in the course of the entire war. It penetrated to the forward magazine of USS Boise before exploding, but Boise survived to fight another day (and served until 1979 in Argentina).
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by CynicAl
Re: Diving shells. As far as I know, all Japanese AP shells in service from @ the mid-30's on were this type. Stocks of the older shells (at least the 16" ones) were converted to 800kg bombs for the B5Ns.

Ironically, the IJN would probably have had a better chance in a straight-up brawl ala Tsushima than if they actually tried to put their ghastly "Decisive Battle" scenario into effect. The thing was an abomination, plain and simple. It's almost hard to pick out the worst feature, there are so many to choose from - divided forces, overcomplication; in short, all the usual suspects of wartime IJN planning - but I think it's probably the assumption that the USN would blithely play along with their script, steaming fat, dumb, and happy (and oddly unescorted), full speed ahead right into the jaws of their trap, without reacting at all.

The most likely result of implementing this deeply flawed plan would be the destruction in detail of all IJN "light" forces (everything up to and including the Kongos) as the dozen-plus penny-packet groupings were shot to pieces in the preliminary Night Battle phase, which would savage the US escorts (mostly by gunfire, rather than the Long Lances*) but leave the BBs largely unmolested. The next morning, the IJN battle line would be ravaged by a much-less-damaged-than-expected US battle fleet, while the Japanese CO stood scratched his head and wondered why none of his escorts had rejoined.

*The Long Lance was a ship-killer, no mistake: fast, long-ranged, and powerful. But IJN doctrine for their use was less impressive. There's an interesting analysis of this at http://www.warships1.com/W-Tech/tech-067.htm

I dont know. The IJN light forces performed pretty **** well in the solomons. There plans to attack the US Fleet at night with wave after wave of torp attacks could have been devasting. Thats why they armed the DDs CLs and CAs to the teeth with torps. The LL torp was extremely accurate and had over twice the range of the US torp. Again the Solomons demonstrated that the IJN was very proficient at useing this weapon and skilled at night fighting. While US night fighting efficiency was suspect to say the least. I assume this scenerio takes place early in the war, so radar use would have been very limited. Certainly t he BBs would would not have had radar. IJN night optics much better than US optics, so I think the IJN performs better than you think in the preliminary attrition actions. They should have no trouble driving off US DD escorts. The shear number disparity in Torps. US DDs carried 4-6 torps no-reloads. IJN DDs carried 8 torps with reloads for a total of 16 torps per DD.

I agree in a theoritical vacume demonstrateing a toe to toe daylight battleline fight the USN would probably prevail. Better AP shells + better armor protection + more concentrated big gun fire power. However that type of pure battleline battle would have been very unlikely. The IJN was fully prepared to sacrifice there light forces in order to break up the US Battleline. Once broken up all bets are off. At this point the IJN speed advantage might be decisive.

I agree IJN plans were flawed, aways too complicated and needless division of force. However pre-war USN planing aslo had its drawbacks. For one the USN planed to use their carriers in widlely dispersed 1 carrier TF groups. To act as scouts for the Battleline. Im afraid this penny packet dispersion of the carrier strength would have been unlikely to be able to stand up to the combined striking power of the Kido Butai.
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Post by mdiehl »

Ranger 75 - TIMJOT and I were discussing the early war combat loss ratios, not the whole war ratios. Much of the radically favorable US ratio that you cite is a result of combat after 1942. Interesting nonetheless, and indicative of the ways in which advanced doctrine made the F4F/FM2 a much more lethal a/c in the PTO than it ever would ahev been in the ETO.

To All: My mistake on the IJN BBs. They're not my forte. I'll leave it to others to retrodict the event that never happened. FWIW the www.combinedleet.com guns and armor page illustrates how and why the SODaks and Iowas were the best in BB design.

Jeremy Pritchard - What can I say. Japanese pilots claimed lots of kills flying everything from Ki100s to A6Ms. Under the *best* circumstances you should *assume* that pilots exaggerated their victory claims by a factor of 3. It also would not surprise me to learn that SBDs claimed in excess of 100 A6Ms and that they actually shot down a score or slightly more. Not owing to any of the lovely characteristics of the SBD, just the tail gunner trying to do his usual thing. If you look at B17 gunners claims in Germany you'd think each Fort shot down took five Germans fighters down with her.

"Possibly the Ki-84 and Ki-100 had 14:1 kill ratios, which makes the F4U and F6F look like trainers!"

LOL! *yeaah, riiiiight*

TIMJOT, why would you assume that the Pacific fleet would not be more fit with radar and no more likely to use the radar sets well? Without an active shooting war for the 1st 6 months of 1942 the naval assets are not committed in the Atlantic or Pacific. That basically puts most of the navy in port getting refit with the newest equipment and then in excercises, training at its proper use. Add that to the fact that all US DD skippers understood proper torpedo doctrine prior to the start of the war (see the Balikpapan sngagement for a good example of this in January 1942) and, IMO, you have a formula whereby the USN is much more prepared for all surface engagement conditions in mid 1942 than it historically was.


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Post by mdiehl »

TIMJOT says:

"There plans to attack the US Fleet at night with wave after wave of torp attacks could have been devasting. Thats why they armed the DDs CLs and CAs to the teeth with torps. The LL torp was extremely accurate and had over twice the range of the US torp."

The aforementinoed Warships1 post shows why that claim is just wrong. Numbers mean something. A "modal hit rate of zero" means that in 51% or more of the instances where Japanese ships fired torpedos, they scored zero hits. A "mean hit rate of 5.8%" means that in all engagements (including the good ones like Tassafaronga), about one in every 20 IJN torpedos launched could be expected to hit a target. A "median hit rate of 3.1%" shows that the middle of the distribution is around 3%" and the whole ball of string means that the Japanese hit distribution histogram is not normally distributed. The Warships1 analysis is dead-on accurate in claiming that the common element in successful surface torpedo attacks by Japan (and, I will add, the USN) is the combination of night and close range.

"Again the Solomons demonstrated that the IJN was very proficient at useing this weapon and skilled at night fighting. While US night fighting efficiency was suspect to say the least."

This is incorrect. The USN beat the Japanese at Balikpapn (a night engagement in which the vaunted IJN night optics failed to spot the USN DDs that were torpedoing them). Savo Island and Tassafaronga were lopsided IJN victories. Cape Esperance, 2nd Guadalcanal were USN victories. 1st Guadalcanal was a draw.

I'd call Sunda Strait a Japanese victory except that:
- Perth and Houston were both virtually out of ammo and had both suffered prior damage in air attacks. - Perth and Houston were grossly outnumbered and sandwiched between 3 converging enemy groups and an impassable obstacle (an island). - The IJN fired 87 torpedoes, missing with 81 or 82 of them, and scoring one of the hits on Perth after she had lost way. - In the process they sank 27000 long tons of their own ships.

A flotilla of well armed bathtub duckies could have taken out a CA and CL under those circumstances. The only reason why the battle was not an embarressing IJN defeat is because the Allied ships had no path to escape. Not by virtue of any plan or doctrine on the IJN's part. Just dumb luck.

Washington had good radar at 2nd G'canal. IMO the other BBs, including the older ones, would have been substantially fit with these in the absence of a shooting war for teh first 6 months of 1942.

One last thing on optics. Japanese superior night optics was with a spotting instrument, not with fire control systems. When you look at optical ranging systems the *night* capabilities of the IJN, KM, RN and USN were pretty similar. So the Japanese advantage was in spotting an enemy TF not in shooting at an enemy TF.. until radar became widely distributed that is. After that it was advantage - Allies.

In my view, the Guadalcanal campaign represents the best the IJN could expect from tehir doctrine. The shallow water, restricted (by islands, bars, and reefs) quarters, and the radar-masking effects of land masses gave the Japanese the circumstances that they needed to have a prayer of making the Japanese pre-war plans work. YOu would not find these conditions if the engagements had been fought near, say, Midway, Saipan, or in the Phillippine Sea.
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Post by TIMJOT »

Cynacle

I have just read the URL article. IMHO its a good effort but fundementally flawed. The author is making apple and oranges comparisons to prove a bias view.

First over half the surface actions he uses do not fit the profile of the IJN Decisive naval battle. First in foremost qualifying factor is the use of radar. In almost all the examples of IJN failure radar played the critical role. In these later battles the USN radar advantage, almost always gave the US initiative as the "attacker" and put the IJN in the role of "defender" This does not fit the IJN Descisive battle scenerio (DBS).

In all earlier battles where radar played little or no role and the IJN were in the role of the attacker. the IJN achieved a hit rate of 12-13%. Which fits the IJN DBS.

The one lone exeption the Java sea battle Is not a fair assesment. The opposing forces CAs, CLs, DDs had no speed advantage. This demonstrates that two forces with equal speeds can basically fight a stalement battle of position. The IJN was force to fire at extreme rangers because the ABDA would not close and give battle. In the IJN DBS the US screening force would not have that luxury of keeping safe distance becuase that would leave the much slower battleline open to attack. Even with the low percentage of Torp hits the IJN still decisively defefeated the ABDA in that action.

The majortiy of the surface actions anaylised are flawed becuase the IJN's paramount objectives were shore bombardment or convoy escort. Not the destruction of enemy ships. Many of the engagements were in fact broken off becuase the comming of daylite would bring the Cactus AF. The IJN DBS would not have taken place in range of US land base aircraft. In fact the IJN superior carrier force would most likely give air superioty to the Japanese or at the very least cancel out US airpower in the battle.

The authors Surigo straight anology further undermines his analysis. An USN battline fully equiped with radar, laying in wait, with overwelming force, in cross T formation. Against a greatly inferior force blundering blindly into the trap. Hardly demonstrates acurately; the IJN DBS of an attacking force being able to penetrate the defences of a battleline.
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Post by CynicAl »

This may already be in the game, but one very nice feature would be separate penetration and warhead ratings, especially for the big guns. US AP shells tended to have very good penetration capabilities - the best in the world, even - but very small warheads. British AP shells (and Japanese, who initally followed the British model) tended to have much larger bursters but didn't penetrate as well. US shells were a little better against hard targets (BBs), British-type shells were a little better against softer targets (everything else). Modeling variations in penetration at various ranges would be nice, as well - point-blank, nothing could match the sheer brute force of the IJN 18.1"; but the US 16"/50s were better penetrators at medium to long range, and at extreme range the US 16"/45s were better still.

Another Dream Feature: is it possible to set the forum to default to no email notification? I'm with mdiehl on this, it's just a pain - but half the time I forget to click the cussed box.
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Post by mdiehl »

"I have just read the URL article. IMHO its a good effort but fundementally flawed. The author is making apple and oranges comparisons to prove a bias view."

What's this? You don't like the conclusions so you say the analysis is biased from the start? Puh-leeaase. Let's not go there.

"First over half the surface actions he uses do not fit the profile of the IJN Decisive naval battle."

Well, then what sort of test fits your requirements. Count only the battles in which a set-peace enagement on terms and conditions favorable to the Japanese and in accordance with their incredibly cumbersome plans actually occurs? Look man, you either get the data that you've got or you get nothing.

"First in foremost qualifying factor is the use of radar. In almost all the examples of IJN failure radar played the critical role."

Well, since most IJN ships lacked radar, your point is.... ? That any IJN engagement on the high seas prior to 1944 is doomed to result in a Japanese defeat because until 1944 most IJN ships lacked radar of any kind.

"In all earlier battles where radar played little or no role and the IJN were in the role of the attacker. the IJN achieved a hit rate of 12-13%. Which fits the IJN DBS."

Houston and Perth lacked radar. The hit rate at Sunda Strait was somewhere between 8/87 and 5/87 or 9.2% to 5.7%.

Your logic seems to trivially define "DBS" as "an egagement that Japan wins in accordance with plan." I'll agree that any enemy victory does not accord with Japanese plans and is not part of their "DBS." I will not concur that the data from such cases should be trivially dismissed. The fact that DBS results were achieved so infrequently merely proves that the DBS doctrinal conditions could rarely be met. Otherwise the discussion is trivial.

"The one lone exeption the Java sea battle Is not a fair assesment. The opposing forces CAs, CLs, DDs had no speed advantage."

Non sequitur. The Japanese had what the had. If the results do not conform to expectations under DBS then the IJN should have formulated a more realistic battle plan.

"The IJN was force to fire at extreme rangers because the ABDA would not close and give battle."

In effect, Allied Big-Gun doctrine meets Japanese DBS doctrine. The result, between an disorganized, outnumbered Allied group in a hodge-podge command led by an Admiral that could not speak the languag of teh majority of his subordinates was indecisive. Hmmm. Makes you wonder how things would have turned out had HMS Exter been the flagship that day.

"In the IJN DBS the US screening force would not have that luxury of keeping safe distance becuase that would leave the much slower battleline open to attack."

Why? Because the allied ships magically get run down? The Japanese don't get to pick the ships that oppose them.

"Even with the low percentage of Torp hits the IJN still decisively defefeated the ABDA in that action."

Because of the absence of Allied spotter a/c. On such nails are engagements won and lost. IIRC a flight of Dutch F2As passed over the engagement at a crucial point. Would that the F2As had bounced the IJN spotter a/c. But they had a mission elsewhere.

"The majortiy of the surface actions anaylised are flawed becuase the IJN's paramount objectives were shore bombardment or convoy escort."

Well, in that case Savo Island should be dismissed for similar reasons.

"Many of the engagements were in fact broken off becuase the comming of daylite would bring the Cactus AF. The IJN DBS would not have taken place in range of US land base aircraft."

Which just means that the DBS would not have taken place.

"In fact the IJN superior carrier force would most likely give air superioty to the Japanese or at the very least cancel out US airpower in the battle. "

Cancel out probably. The USN and IJN pretty much emasculated each other's airpower at Coral Sea. Change a bomb hit here or a vapor explosion there and Coral Sea could have ended with no US CVs sunk and 2 IJN CVs and 1 CVL sunk.

"The authors Surigo straight anology further undermines his analysis. An USN battline fully equiped with radar, laying in wait, with overwelming force, in cross T formation. Against a greatly inferior force blundering blindly into the trap."

About what the Japanese could expect as a result of any head-to-head engagement on the high seas in 1943 or thereafter.

"Hardly demonstrates acurately; the IJN DBS of an attacking force being able to penetrate the defences of a battleline."

The IJN DBS idea was not going to happen, and the data that you dismiss show why. The DBS only works if the Japanese get to choose the timing, circumstances, and OOBs of the engagement. Funny how warfare rarely works that way.
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CynicAl
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Post by CynicAl »

TIMJOT posted:
The IJN was force to fire at extreme ranges because the ABDA would not close and give battle. In the IJN DBS the US screening force would not have that luxury of keeping safe distance because that would leave the much slower battleline open to attack.
But that's the thing - The Japanese planned to fire at maximum range in the DB, especially against the light forces. Maximum range engagements ("outranging the enemy") were central to IJN doctrine. That was the reason why they wanted a torpedo with such a very long range. (This was also the thinking behind the over(?)-emphasis on range in IJN aircraft.) But long-range engagements, even with the excellent Long Lance, generally yielded poor hit rates - the ocean is just too big, and even the largest ship (or fleet) is too small. The LLs did much better when circumstances constrained the Japanese to engage at much shorter ranges than called for in IJN doctrine, as in the Solomons campaign.
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Post by mdiehl »

Exactly. And the problem gets worse, in terms of the "what if" scenario that started this discussion, the longer the Japanese wait to involve the US. The problem is that US fire control gets much better with time, whereas Japanese fire control remains more or less static. In the posited long-range engagement, eventually US ranging becomes accurate enough that it becomes possible to hit Japanese ships reasonably well at long range, while retaining the maneuverability to avoid being hit.

Again, see combinedfleet.com. Look at the footnotes on US fire control radar on the SoDak/Iowas. The same system was installed on the Old Slowpokes like USS Pennsylvania and the other radar-equipped vessels at Surigao Strait. The slow speed of the PA gives it a less extreme advantage, but it is still nice to have been able to both shoot accurately and maneuver radically (the USN), rather than one and not the other (the IJN, KM and RM. The RN too?).

By the way, Jeremy, the US Old Slowpokes were used at Surigao Strait. They were the ones that crossed the T and ripped the IJN formation to shreds and patches. So they were not simply intended to be used in bombardment. They were in fact armed with the latest fir control devices and anti-ship ordnance, and used it very well.
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by mdiehl
Ranger 75 - TIMJOT and I were discussing the early war combat loss ratios, not the whole war ratios. Much of the radically favorable US ratio that you cite is a result of combat after 1942. Interesting nonetheless, and indicative of the ways in which advanced doctrine made the F4F/FM2 a much more lethal a/c in the PTO than it ever would ahev been in the ETO.

To All: My mistake on the IJN BBs. They're not my forte. I'll leave it to others to retrodict the event that never happened. FWIW the www.combinedleet.com guns and armor page illustrates how and why the SODaks and Iowas were the best in BB design.

Jeremy Pritchard - What can I say. Japanese pilots claimed lots of kills flying everything from Ki100s to A6Ms. Under the *best* circumstances you should *assume* that pilots exaggerated their victory claims by a factor of 3. It also would not surprise me to learn that SBDs claimed in excess of 100 A6Ms and that they actually shot down a score or slightly more. Not owing to any of the lovely characteristics of the SBD, just the tail gunner trying to do his usual thing. If you look at B17 gunners claims in Germany you'd think each Fort shot down took five Germans fighters down with her.

"Possibly the Ki-84 and Ki-100 had 14:1 kill ratios, which makes the F4U and F6F look like trainers!"

LOL! *yeaah, riiiiight*

TIMJOT, why would you assume that the Pacific fleet would not be more fit with radar and no more likely to use the radar sets well? Without an active shooting war for the 1st 6 months of 1942 the naval assets are not committed in the Atlantic or Pacific. That basically puts most of the navy in port getting refit with the newest equipment and then in excercises, training at its proper use. Add that to the fact that all US DD skippers understood proper torpedo doctrine prior to the start of the war (see the Balikpapan sngagement for a good example of this in January 1942) and, IMO, you have a formula whereby the USN is much more prepared for all surface engagement conditions in mid 1942 than it historically was.


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Well that would assume that there were more radar sets available at the time. Something I am not sure of. Radar at least naval radar was still expiremental at this stage. But if the availablity of radar sets are not an issue, then I will agree the lack of fighting would allow more ships to be fitted and trained in radar. Even so you couldnt just start installing sets on the entire fleet. The uncertanty of the situation would seem to dictate keeping substantial part of the fleet ready to sorte at a moments notice.

Also without the real world combat expierence I still think the USN suffers from that learning curve thing. By 1943 the USN had become petty **** proficient with radar due to no small reason all those night surface actions in the solomons (IMHO)
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by mdiehl
"I have just read the URL article. IMHO its a good effort but fundementally flawed. The author is making apple and oranges comparisons to prove a bias view."

What's this? You don't like the conclusions so you say the analysis is biased from the start? Puh-leeaase. Let's not go there.

"First over half the surface actions he uses do not fit the profile of the IJN Decisive naval battle."

Well, then what sort of test fits your requirements. Count only the battles in which a set-peace enagement on terms and conditions favorable to the Japanese and in accordance with their incredibly cumbersome plans actually occurs? Look man, you either get the data that you've got or you get nothing.

"First in foremost qualifying factor is the use of radar. In almost all the examples of IJN failure radar played the critical role."

Well, since most IJN ships lacked radar, your point is.... ? That any IJN engagement on the high seas prior to 1944 is doomed to result in a Japanese defeat because until 1944 most IJN ships lacked radar of any kind.

"In all earlier battles where radar played little or no role and the IJN were in the role of the attacker. the IJN achieved a hit rate of 12-13%. Which fits the IJN DBS."

Houston and Perth lacked radar. The hit rate at Sunda Strait was somewhere between 8/87 and 5/87 or 9.2% to 5.7%.

Your logic seems to trivially define "DBS" as "an egagement that Japan wins in accordance with plan." I'll agree that any enemy victory does not accord with Japanese plans and is not part of their "DBS." I will not concur that the data from such cases should be trivially dismissed. The fact that DBS results were achieved so infrequently merely proves that the DBS doctrinal conditions could rarely be met. Otherwise the discussion is trivial.

"The one lone exeption the Java sea battle Is not a fair assesment. The opposing forces CAs, CLs, DDs had no speed advantage."

Non sequitur. The Japanese had what the had. If the results do not conform to expectations under DBS then the IJN should have formulated a more realistic battle plan.

"The IJN was force to fire at extreme rangers because the ABDA would not close and give battle."

In effect, Allied Big-Gun doctrine meets Japanese DBS doctrine. The result, between an disorganized, outnumbered Allied group in a hodge-podge command led by an Admiral that could not speak the languag of teh majority of his subordinates was indecisive. Hmmm. Makes you wonder how things would have turned out had HMS Exter been the flagship that day.

"In the IJN DBS the US screening force would not have that luxury of keeping safe distance becuase that would leave the much slower battleline open to attack."

Why? Because the allied ships magically get run down? The Japanese don't get to pick the ships that oppose them.

"Even with the low percentage of Torp hits the IJN still decisively defefeated the ABDA in that action."

Because of the absence of Allied spotter a/c. On such nails are engagements won and lost. IIRC a flight of Dutch F2As passed over the engagement at a crucial point. Would that the F2As had bounced the IJN spotter a/c. But they had a mission elsewhere.

"The majortiy of the surface actions anaylised are flawed becuase the IJN's paramount objectives were shore bombardment or convoy escort."

Well, in that case Savo Island should be dismissed for similar reasons.

"Many of the engagements were in fact broken off becuase the comming of daylite would bring the Cactus AF. The IJN DBS would not have taken place in range of US land base aircraft."

Which just means that the DBS would not have taken place.

"In fact the IJN superior carrier force would most likely give air superioty to the Japanese or at the very least cancel out US airpower in the battle. "

Cancel out probably. The USN and IJN pretty much emasculated each other's airpower at Coral Sea. Change a bomb hit here or a vapor explosion there and Coral Sea could have ended with no US CVs sunk and 2 IJN CVs and 1 CVL sunk.

"The authors Surigo straight anology further undermines his analysis. An USN battline fully equiped with radar, laying in wait, with overwelming force, in cross T formation. Against a greatly inferior force blundering blindly into the trap."

About what the Japanese could expect as a result of any head-to-head engagement on the high seas in 1943 or thereafter.

"Hardly demonstrates acurately; the IJN DBS of an attacking force being able to penetrate the defences of a battleline."

The IJN DBS idea was not going to happen, and the data that you dismiss show why. The DBS only works if the Japanese get to choose the timing, circumstances, and OOBs of the engagement. Funny how warfare rarely works that way.

Mdiehl

Not at all. Its just IMHO that the author first had a theory and then went about an analysis to support this theory. Rather than anaylisng data to come up with a theory. Again just my take.

Regarding fitting the Scenerio. Cynacal and I were discussing the the hypothetical engagement of the decisive naval battle envisioned by both sides in their pre-war plans useing pre-war ships.

Of course the advent of airpower and radar made such a set piece surface engagement impossible after say mid 42 and on. To debate the merit of the plans you have analyse them in the context of the realities at the time they were envisioned.

To answer your question regarding radar; No it wasnt the lack of radar prior to 44 that doomed IJN it was the presence of radar in USN ships that doomed the IJN in an open seas surface action. There were some execeptions early on becuase as you point out the geographic difficulties of the Solomons and even more importantly due to inadequate training or understanding of the proper use of early radar.

RE; "Sunda Strait." First this wasnt an "engagement" it was a running retreat and attempted "disengagement". True the Houston and Perth mangage to lob a few shells at some transports as they passed a convoy, but the battle demonstrates the difficulty of engageing an enemy that has equal speed and is trying to disengage. Its not surprising that the long range torp attack failed. Whats surprising is that one mangage to hit. The main reason the attack was launched was a desperate attempt to slow down the escaping cruisers so that the IJN CAs could close range and engage. In this they were ultimately successful not to any small part due to the evasive manuvers the allied cruisers had to employ to avoid all those torps.

Re: "Balikapan" The US DDs attacked a virtually defenceless conoy at anchor. The transports where perfectly silouetted by Burning oil wells and protected by only 3 patrol craft. Each mounting only 2 x 4.7" guns and no Torps. Never the less the US DDs first attack of 10 torps at close range all missed. In the second attack they mangage to hit and sink 3 transports and on patrol craft. Hardly the resounding aclimation of USN night tactics that you claimed it to be.

Re:Java Sea not being applicable; My point is the the USN light forces would not have the luxury of keeping their distance becuase they would eventually end up leaving the much slower 21knot battle line behind. (This would not be the case with the new fast US BBs, but again that is out of the context of the discussion.) This means in order to protect the battleline they would have to close with the enemy. The effect of close range LL torp attack as demostrated in the solomons is undeniable.

Re: Savo; It can be dismissed on similar grounds becuse they were not escorting ships and the were not going to bombard. Hence they were not loaded up with HE shells instead of AP shells like the Hie and Kirshima were. The mission was to break through the screen to destroy the shipping.

Re: USN and IJN emasulating themselves at Coral Sea; That was two equal strength TFs fighting head to head. USN pre-war doctorine called for the carriers to be dispersed into single carrier TFs for maximum scouting potential. IJN pre-war doctorine called for the concentration of the Kido Buhtai into single overpowering strike force. Cant say for sure, but it seems the USN plan would leave each of its dispersed TF open to being overwelmed individually in turn. At the very least lets just say both carrier forces end up cancelling each other out because niether side had envisioned them to be the main implement of destruction anyway.

Re "Suriago Staight anology" Yes I agree, but I wasnt discussing 43 and on , I was discussing mid 30s up to mid 42.

Again in the context of the discussion most of the examples do not demostrate accurately the circumstances in which the proposed scenerio could take place. Im not saying everything has to go as plan. Im saying that in the DBS the IJN mission would be solely to press the attack against the opposing surface force. That was not the case in most of the examples.
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Post by mdiehl »

"Not at all. Its just IMHO that the author first had a theory and then went about an analysis to support this theory. Rather than anaylisng data to come up with a theory."

Well. Science is a recursive thing. Testing a theory with data is part of the process, and usually regarded (by scientists, at any rate) as a better way to approach a problem than to look for patterns in data and come up with an explanation. But both approaches are in fact used and complementary. What he did not do was "come up with an analysis to prove his theory." The question he asked was, given the historical performance of IJN torpedoes in real engagements, was the DBS ever likely to succeed, given that the Japanese DBS rested heavily on the assumption that torpedoes would achive hit rates of 16-20%.

"Regarding fitting the Scenerio. Cynacal and I were discussing the the hypothetical engagement of the decisive naval battle envisioned by both sides in their pre-war plans useing pre-war ships. "

Ah. I missed that. So if the battles happen in 1940-1941, radar is not a big phenom.

"RE. "Sunda Strait."

I agree that it is surprising that the IJn scored any hits. Less so, however, when you consider that Perth and Houston were boxed in. IMO the biggest tactical mistake, given Perth/Houston's objective (run away) was when Perth challenged the shadowing Japanese DD. The Allies should have played mum and seen how far they could get. But then, inaggressive skippers aren't necessarily the best guys to have running your bridges. Still, a crappy hit rate for the IJN torpedoes coupled with some really wild-axxed lousy gunnery on both sides.

"Re: "Balikapan"

My point wasn't about the torpedoes. It was about the doctrine. US DD skippers knew that if one could get the enemy in torpedo water, especially if one was undetected, then the best tactic was to volley torpedoes until you had all the hits you could claim. US DD skippers knew this as a matter of routine. Now, if you're talking the pre-1941 war, it is unclear whether the USN skippers would have been given license to operate without being tethered to the battle line. If you're talking a start after June 1942 it is more likely, IMO, that DD flotillas are given greater flexibility on when and how to engage.

"The US DDs attacked a virtually defenceless conoy at anchor. The transports where perfectly silouetted by Burning oil wells and protected by only 3 patrol craft."

And an they were also protected by an IJN CL-DD group, at least until it went roaring into the darkness looking for submarines. Again: "So much for superior night optics."

"Hardly the resounding aclimation of USN night tactics that you claimed it to be."

Not a resounding acclaimation. Just an observation that the right doctrine was in place as a result of training prior to the outbreak of hostilities. Hence, no need to invoke the mystique of "learning curve."

"The effect of close range LL torp attack as demostrated in the Solomons is undeniable."

It's completely deniable, or at least disputable. Type 93a was demonstrably quite effective at Savo and Tassafaronga. Virtually absent at 1st and 2nd Guadalcanal, particularly wherein at the latter engagement the best weapon at teh IJN's disposal for use against USN fast battleships (the Type 93a) was completely ineffective.

"Re "Suriago Staight anology" Yes I agree, but I wasnt discussing 43 and on , I was discussing mid 30s up to mid 42."

Bueno. I missed that earlier. But if you get much prior to 1941 then you have no real Kido Butai, and the a/c in use are fixed-gear biplanes or something, not Zeros. I'd take an F2 or even an F3 (retractable carriage biplane version of the F4) against one of the Japanese stringbags any day. In those circumstances, you also have the TBD, Wind-indicator, and the first "Helldiver" (also a biplane) looking like pretty good tactical bombers because the IJN opposition to them would have been far less effective than Zekes.

"I'm saying that in the DBS the IJN mission would be solely to press the attack against the opposing surface force. That was not the case in most of the examples."

You're entitled to your opinion, of course. Still seems to me like a lot of rationalizations aimed at dismissing key data points. Unless, of course, your DBS-pre-1941 scenario doesn't actually involve the IJN *invading* anywhere.
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TIMJOT
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Post by TIMJOT »

Originally posted by CynicAl


But that's the thing - The Japanese planned to fire at maximum range in the DB, especially against the light forces. Maximum range engagements ("outranging the enemy") were central to IJN doctrine. That was the reason why they wanted a torpedo with such a very long range. (This was also the thinking behind the over(?)-emphasis on range in IJN aircraft.) But long-range engagements, even with the excellent Long Lance, generally yielded poor hit rates - the ocean is just too big, and even the largest ship (or fleet) is too small. The LLs did much better when circumstances constrained the Japanese to engage at much shorter ranges than called for in IJN doctrine, as in the Solomons campaign.
Hi Cynaical

I will agree that the extreme long range torp. aspect of the plan was probalbly not get the results envisioned. Particularly against the light forces. Might have had a better chance against the slow pre-war BBs though. In any case IJN planed to follow up the Longrange attack with to quote your source "suicidal" close in engagement. Again the IJN were perfectly willing to sacrifice the light forces in order to widdle down the USN Battle line. I think you are right in that the Long range attacked probabley wouldnt score many hits but I think it would have at least disrupted the the battleline. Its hard to keep in formation while avoiding even long range torp attacks. The US BBs in disarray the IJN BBs would be able to get the superior position and get in the all important first salvos.
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