The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

11/14/44

SitRep: On the whole today was a routinely "good" day for the Allies. But I had hoped for a more stellar day. While watching the replay I had hopes that the strategic bombing points would be pretty good on the day. They weren't and the loss of the P-51Bs took some of the shine off that department of the war anyway.

But the China fronts continue to devolve badly for Japan. There are so many broken units retiring in so many directions. There's always the temptation to detach units to chase down and batter retreating riff-raff but I'm sending most of my army east or NE as fast as they're little legs and wheel can carry or propel them.

I'll post a detailed map later today.

[JeffroK]

The B29-25 is a day bomber, its the B29B that sheds weight for a low level night bomber role.

[BBfanboy]

The strikes on Kurume and Utsonomiya probably suffered from bleeding CAP from Nagasaki and Tokyo respectively. Might be best to avoid day strikes on targets one hex from a major base.

[Canoerebel]

11/14/44

Fancy Pants: The Chinese are victorious along the old MLR west of Changsha while the western Allies continue to beat tuckered enemy units near the coast.

In addition to all the supply ships gathering in the DEI, there are transports carrying a lot of reinforcements. These will land in China - probably mostly at Ningpo to reinforce the impending moves on Shanghai and Hangchow.

The Chinese armies will be dividing - the western contingent will move on Canton and/or Hong Kong. They'll almost certainly need heavy air force support to take either or both those bases. The central and eastern components of the Chinese army will move on Changsha and attempt to link up with the western Allies somewhere between Changsha and Hangchow, thus completing a great encirclement. This will take another ten days or so.

[JohnDillworth]

John will certainly try and sneak his BB's in again if past history is any indication. He has had some success wit this tactic in the past and he is good at it. Once he knows he can get in and out at night or without air retaliation he tends to keep swinging until those ships are sunk. Since the big boy are not likely to be needed for fleet AA support have you considered putting more that DD task forces in the way?

[paullus99]

I would agree - he's obviously brought back the heavies to try to interfere with your operations - I would expect either a bombardment of Ningpo or he's going to hunt for your carriers.....

Since he hasn't seemed to want to commit his carriers (at this point they are free VPs), I guess he has no problem sending it what are, for all intents, sacrificial lambs, if it means he can harvest more VPs.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What can we learn from this expose?

1. Bomb low enough, and with a big payload, and you don't need DL. Especially if the target is rather largish.

Shhhh.

[jwolf]

... Chinese army will move on Changsha and attempt to link up with the western Allies somewhere between Changsha and Hangchow, thus completing a great encirclement. This will take another ten days or so.

Ten days seems wildly optimistic. I don't think you could do that even without any Japanese army at all. With light fighting, maybe 3 weeks. Longer if there is stiff resistance at a key base such as Changsha or Nanchang/Kiukiang. That's my take, anyway. But I certainly agree that this theater is going really well for you. It's great to see the Chinese army successfully at work (though they have had some severe losses in failed attacks, too).

BTW I really like your maps with the color coded annotations. Great work.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What can we learn from this expose?

1. Bomb low enough, and with a big payload, and you don't need DL. Especially if the target is rather largish.

Shhhh.

Ok, I won't mention using this tactic on ports. Oops.[;)]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Ten days seems wildly optimistic.

Sounds spot on to me.

[Canoerebel]

I was speaking of "closing the gap" between Changsha and Hangchow so that John doesn't have an open road of egress. It'll take longer to reduce major redoubts - Hangchow and Changsha should fall into that category.

[jwolf]

I admit I'm still not seeing the 10 day timeline in China. But I'm still a rookie and I will be glad to be proven wrong. Should be fun to watch in any case.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

... Chinese army will move on Changsha and attempt to link up with the western Allies somewhere between Changsha and Hangchow, thus completing a great encirclement. This will take another ten days or so.

Ten days seems wildly optimistic. I don't think you could do that even without any Japanese army at all. With light fighting, maybe 3 weeks. Longer if there is stiff resistance at a key base such as Changsha or Nanchang/Kiukiang. That's my take, anyway. But I certainly agree that this theater is going really well for you. It's great to see the Chinese army successfully at work (though they have had some severe losses in failed attacks, too).

BTW I really like your maps with the color coded annotations. Great work.

Terrain at these bases is all heavily in favor of the Allies - or at least their bombers. They can cause a massive reduction in combat power for the Japanese in a single turn.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I was speaking of "closing the gap" between Changsha and Hangchow so that John doesn't have an open road of egress. It'll take longer to reduce major redoubts - Hangchow and Changsha should fall into that category.

It's a tough crowd ;] Probably why more people do not write AAR's!!

[Canoerebel]

11/15/44

Fancy Pants: China is a boiling mass of troops. In general, the Japanese army is battered and in retreat. There are redoubts here and there. And strong units may be hidden in the mix of battered units. John can wage an effective guerilla warfare campaign, interdicting roads, etc.

But for the most part the Allied army is moving in good order to seal the pocket - closing the land routes to the east. The defeat of 2nd Tank Division today, west of Hangchow, was a big step in that direction.

But this pocket isn't truly a pocket, since Japan still has ports like Hong Kong, Canton, and Pakhoi. The situation is fluid and somewhat confusing. It isn't possible for me to snap my fingers or twitch my nose and address everything instantly. So I chose the general strategy of moving north and east, knowing that the air force and follow up Chinese units can address the pocket.

[BBfanboy]

The IJA 35th Division isn't in clear terrain - it's in rough (+2) terrain. Your bombers won't be nearly as effective and you'll need clear superiority in AV. But if you can wait a while that unit is a long way from sources of supply and you are cutting all the connections .... [:)]

[Canoerebel]

I meant "in the clear" as out from a base, surrounded by hostile troops with no access to friendly LRCAP.

I'm sorry for not making myself more clear. I'm posting so often that the temptation to try to inject some brevity can leave folks uncertain about what I mean.

[Lowpe]

Really well done in China.[&o]

Watch the no valid retreat path...for units like the 35th. It will stubbornly not retreat and potentially really slow you down for 2 weeks or so...if you let it.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I'm not working the "surround and destroy" angle anywhere in China, to this point. Everywhere, the name of the game is to move east and to batter anything material that stands in the way, to prevent it from becoming a nuisance behind-the-lines guerilla menace.

35th Div. is on a good road and is strong. I didn't even know it was there until the two armored units did a probing deliberate attack. Fortuitously, in this case, two fresh US Army divisions will reach this hex in a day or two. In the meantime, I think every divebomber and 2EB in the vicinity targets this hex tomorrow. The goal is to battered this divisions and get it off the road.

[HansBolter]

Kuikang is a bear.

Swamp terrain with very low stacking.
I've had a stack of 8 IJA units surrounded there for over 18 months in my current game.
Not worth it to me to try to pry them out.