Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

12/1/43 and 12/2/43
 
Alor:  A Japanese DD TF hit an Allied CA/CL/DD force that included CA Houston and CL Tromp.  The IJN sank two DDs while losing one.  The Japanese force turned back and the reinforcement landings continued unmolested.  The most interesting aspect of this encounter was the lack of IJN cruisers.  This is a new tactic - just two weeks ago two Japanese CL/DD forces struck in this area during the Battle of Morotai.  Since then, however, Miller has lost many CA and CL.  I think it's reached the point that he's had to ration his cruisers and protect them from further attrition.  If this assessment is accurate it means the Allies can be a little more aggressive in accepting or seeking naval combat, not only because the IJN TFs will carry less punch (those cruisers are tough!), but also because it may be hitting the IJN in its most vulnerable area.

Manikwari:  The reinforcement landings continue (but I better bug out quick since the big IJN base at Palau is so close!) and an Allied deliberate attack came off at 1:3, didn't touch two forts, but cost the Japanese 660 casualties and the Allies 250.  This is a positive development.

Ambon:  The reinforcement landings continue here, too.  The Allies won't attack, however, until we have time to bring in more troops and try to whittle down whatever supplies Miller brought in recently.  Good news:  Allied 4EB have re-closed the airfield.  Ambon is a little too distant from the nearest big IJA airbases to permit efficient LRCAP, so the Allies should be able to keep it shut.

Milne Bay:  This base fell to the Allies on the 1st.  It will take a few days to extinquish the remaining defenders, but the Allies will pull out several units within a week.

Burma:  Interesting situtation developing.  Back-to-back Allied attacks at Pegu came off at 4:1 and 2:1 and dropped forts from 5 to 3.  I'll bet Miller is scrambling (or has already scrambled) to send reinforcements from adjacent Rangoon.  They'll probably arrive just in time to prevent this base from falling into Allied hands, which I think would be a calamitous defeat for the Japanese. 

[Grotius]

According to Miller it's identical in both scenarios once you get past the opening cadre.  He says the Japanese start with a higher quality pilot in Scenario Two, but once they are gone the replacements and the training process are identical to Scenario One.

I agree that the quality and training is identical. But I do see one other important difference with the pilot pool in Scenario 2, which I'm playing. In particular, I see double the number of pilots in the "flight school" at game start and in January 1942 -- and according to the Tracker guys, those school numbers will only grow, so we'll be saddled with a larger flight school throughout the game. The devs were trying to boost Japan (consistent with the order of battle, which certainly does boost Japan) by making sure we'd never run out of pilots, but they went overboard in a way that actually hurts Japan.

It hurts Japan because each pilot in school costs 5 Heavy Industry a month, and there are thousands of extra trainees! What's more, there's no way to flunk out these thousands of useless cadets you'll never use, or to "turn off" flight school (the way you can turn off factories). In Scenario 1 it's easy to stockpile heavy industry; in scenario 2, it's tougher because of the "flight school tax." Andy Mac has said if he had to do it again, he'd modify the scenario to account for the higher heavy-industry cost of all those thousands of extra pilots, many (most?) of whom will never see action at all. I'd gladly ship half of them off to the Soviets, or make them go to medical school, or something.

Apart from that, though, Japan certainly does get more toys in Scenario 2. It sounds like you've sunk most of them, though. I bet you're gonna have fun in 1944.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/43 and 12/4/43
 
Perhaps the best two-day turn of the war to date for the Allies.  The Allies had two ground attacks scheduled that I felt had a chance of succeeding - Manikwari on the New Guinea coast and Pegu, adjacent to Rangoon.  The Allies also scheduled two other attacks - one at Rangoon (hoping to freeze Japanese units in place and prevent Miller from reinforcing Pegu) and at Ambon (where I had no expectation of hope given the recent massive Japanese reinforcements, but decided to try just one since the Allied reinforcements were 100% prepped while the IJA were likely nearer 20%).  The results on Day One were surprising and shocking and, for the Japanese, devastating:

Ambon:  The first "probing" deliberate attack came off at 1:1, dropped forts from 1 to 0, and cost the Japanese 2300 casualties to 500.

Manikwari:  The first attack came off at 1:1, dropped forts to 2, and cost the Japanese 261 to 105.

Rangoon:  I was expecting the Allies to take heavy casualties during this spoiling attack intended to freeze the IJA in place, but the first attack came off at 1:2, didn't touch 5 forts, found the IJA reduced for "op mode" (how many troops was Miller trying to send from Rangoon to Pegu?), and cost the IJA 4,000 casualties to 2,000 for the Allies.  This was a major surprise.

Pegu:  This attack comes off at 10:1, overcomes 2 forts, cost the IJA 5,100 casualties to 425, and succeeds in taking the base.  Abruptly and unexpectedly, the Japanese garrison in Rangoon is isolated. 

The results on Day Two were equally gratifying:

Ambon:  The Allied attacks comes off at 2:1, inflicts 2400 to 240 casualties, and takes the base.  The Allies take a base I didn't expect to fall until early 1944 at further great cost.

Manikwari:  The Allied attack comes off at 94:1, inflicts 725 to 75 casualties, and succeeds in taking this base.

So, what are the implications of this sudden shift in power in Burma and the DEI?

Burma:  A major Japanese Army is penned up and isolated in Rangoon.  Meanwhile, the road is open to the Allies to Moulmein and points south.  Miller will hasten to reinforce and block that road, and will in all likelihood succeed before the Allies get very far; but he also has to deal with the army in Rangoon.  I suspect he'll hastily begin emergency efforts to evacuate cadres rather than see an entire army reduced and then destroyed.  The road is open and the war is once again on in Burma.

DEI:  The Allies have suddenly expanded their "shoulder" dramtically, increasing security and bringing new Japanese bases under threat of attack.  More importantly, I was prepping new troops for Ambon and thinking that would be the major operation into early '44.  Now these troops can instead prep for other targets and the timetables move up considerably for the moves on Ternate, Manado, and Kendari.  Too, the sudden collapse of Ambon, a key point on his MLR, undoubtedly leaves Miller in a position of having to quickly develop a new MLR.

The Japanese High Command:  These events were sudden and surprising and I'll bet it's left Miller in a lurch.  The events at Ambon are particularly unexpected, but Miller did a great job defending the base, and then organizing a major operation to reinforce and resupply the base.  Things went awry for him due to some bad luck (Allied subs and PT boats attriting his carrier force).  I tip my CAP to Miller for an adroit effort to stem the Allied advance at Ambon.

On the other hand, the situation in Burma is a bit of a puzzler. Miller saw the two armies building for months and then advancing over the course of several weeks. The failure to reinforce Pegu before it was attacked surprised me.  But the Allied success in Burma is largely a byproduct of the offensive in the DEI.  Miller withdrew his airforce several months ago to fight in the DEI, where they helped win the Battle of Morotai.  But doing so permitted the Allies to bomb Rangoon and Pegu unmercifully.

So, in a distant yet proximate way, the Allied move on the Kuriles, which allowed the Allies to apply great pressure in the DEI, which persuaded Miller to withdraw his air force from Burma, allowed the Allies to win a decisive battle in the campaign for Rangoon.

[Bullwinkle58]

Excellent developments on several fronts. Aside from the results themselves, I think all of these operations draw attention away from combat forces bashing each other (recent weeks) to the reality of his more prosaic, but critical, supply operations. In short, he ain't supplying enough troops far enough forward to hold his lines. This is very valuable strategic intel you've gotten pretty cheaply.

The quesiton now is, what does he do about it now that you've broken his glass jaw? Does he fall back to a new MLR, as you suggest? (Probably.) Or, does he counter-attack at Ambon (probably not Pegu due to distance and terrain, but you never know)? If a counter-attack, it has to be soon. If a counter-attack, he may also be counting on catching your follow-up supply TFs in port. Escort heavily and use subs as a screen.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Burma:  A major Japanese Army is penned up and isolated in Rangoon.  Meanwhile, the road is open to the Allies to Moulmein and points south.  Miller will hasten to reinforce and block that road, and will in all likelihood succeed before the Allies get very far; but he also has to deal with the army in Rangoon.  I suspect he'll hastily begin emergency efforts to evacuate cadres rather than see an entire army reduced and then destroyed.  The road is open and the war is once again on in Burma.

A comment on Burma. I've had extensive operations there in my AI game, with massive use of air power by the AI, which I've worked down but not out by March 1944. Rangoon is a jewel to get and hold--great port, great air base, in range of your northern LRCAP, a pretty short run in from Port Blair for LCU and supply build. BUT, also in range of major, and I mean huge, air bases at Tavoy, Bangkok, and (lesser so) Moulmein. The AI commonly can coordinate 3- and 4-way sweeps on Rangoon with over 140 fighters per.

VPs aside, I'd reduce and take Rangoon before worrying about moving down the coast. It's a great supply dump, a true "hinge" hex that opens up ops to the east as well as south. Para-drop operations into central Burma (Chiang Mai, Rahaeng) are possible from there if he's sleeping. There are pretty good heavy road and rail networks running NE to SW through the center of Burma which are gettable with coverage from Pegu/Rangoon if you have Chinese troops available to the NE. Don't think you HAVE to move down the coast to make his life miserable in this theater. Also, against the AI (probably not in PBEM) I was able to use sea power and mobility to jump south and set up a supply-blocking base at Victoria Point.

Last suggestion--Pegu, and to a much greater extent Rangoon, lets you recon Bangkok with many sorts of recon assets, and begin aerial mining ops there. I've bagged a couple of xAKs at little cost or risk. Bangkok is a pretty vital port and a scab well worth picking at.

Again, congrats on the advances. Don't let him take a deep breath.

[FOW]

Re Ambon,
 
What major LCUs did you destroy?
( I say destroy even though a cadre may have been kept by Miller - for current intents and purposes such units are combat ineffective)

[Canoerebel]

FOW:  The original garrison at Ambon consisted of 2nd Guards Division, which must be a good unit judging by it's tenacious defense.  Miller then reinforced with most/all of 20th Regiment and part of 25th Division.  These three units were savaged in the fighting.  25th Division had garrisoned Milne Bay.  Part of the division remained there and got beaten up when the Allies took that base a couple of days ago.  In addition to 2nd Guards and 25th Divison, 4th Divsion was savaged in the fighting at Lautem and two other divisions were roughed up at Sorong and Morotai.  (I *think* that Scenario Two gives the IJA four additional divisions, so the impact isn't as bad as it seems in all likelihood).

Bullwinkle:  Great suggestions and thoughts and a bit of mutual ESP perhaps.  I have 50th Indian Paratroops 100% prepped for Chiang Mai and a Special Services unit prepping for Raeheng (though I'm not quite sure yet that it has paratroop capability).  Neither of the two IJA divisions (33 and 55?) normally part of the Burma army were at Rangoon.  I don't know where they are.

The Allies should be able to take Rangoon with the troops on hand plus the one big African division (100%) prepped that will arrive in a week or less.  So, while those troops concentrate on Rangoon, part of the Pegu victors will move a hex closer to Moulmein.  I've just transferred four recon squadrons forward to take a peek deeper into Japanese territory including Bangkok and Tavoy.

I assume Miller will be able to form a stiff roadblock at Tavoy and a really, really tough one at Bangkok.  But there is a chance that the sudden shift in fortunes in Burma has caught him with his pants down, so I want to probe and push a bit to gauge opportunities.  But I have an idea as to the overall Allied objectives (I'll keep this to myself at the moment, but it dovetails with Allied grand strategy first proposed in early '42).

As for counterattacks, I'll be watchful, but the Allies have too much in Burma.  As for the DEI, the Japanese are short on troop transports due to some big losses at Semereng in early '42, at Paramushiro in early '43, and in the DEI in '43.  I don't think Miller is going to engage in any major contested amphibious operation to take a base strongly garrisoned by the Allies.

To keep Miller off balance, I'm planning to take Talaud Island by para-assault with reinforcements by a brigade, engineers, and base force to immediately follow.  This depends upon the island being ungarrisoned, though, and I won't recon until the turn before the attack (probably about four days off).

The Allies will probably invade lightly defended Namlea in a couple of weeks.

But there are two big hurdles before the Allies undertake their next big DEI operation (against either Ternate or Manado):  Some of the troops slated for these operations are on the front lines.  I need to mount fairly extensive and well-protected operations to get transports in and out safely to reposition these troops, probably at Darwin but maybe at Boela or Kaimana.  Secondly, I am in the process of retrieving an army from Pearl Harbor and two infantry divisions from San Diego.  I've sent a bunch of my transports back from the front lines to these two ports.  These missions will take about a month.

A final note - I self-imposed a house rule on myself to refrain from any strategic bombing until 1944 (well, I imposed this back in '42 when Miller and I dealt with the China situation).  That deadline is nearing and the Allies are planning an active campaign in SE Asia (Bangkok and Saigon are likely early targets).  I'm still too far from the best DEI bases to hit them effecitvely, but that should change in the next few months.  By the time B-29s come on line, they should have viable and worthwhile targets.

[John 3rd]

Dan---my .02 is to destroy those troops trapped at Rangoon. They cannot be replaced and the faster you do it the less chance their is for cadres to be pulled out. You've got a golden opportunity to wipe out a major IJA force--TAKE IT!

Beyond that...move south with a screen and grab what you can. It will force Miller to stay defensive and you might be able to advance further then planned due to the suddeness of the Japanese collapse. This being said, don't pull so much to go South when your real objective is killing that army.

[Canoerebel]

That's what the Allies will do.  At Rangoon, the Allies have 1700 AV and the IJA about 1000.  The first Allied attack came off at 1:2, didn't touch five forts, but cost the IJA 4,100 casualties and the Allies about 2,000.  The Allies will continue to attack, bombard, and engage in aerial bombing while awaiting arrival of the African unit of about 380 AV that is 100% prepped for Rangoon.  I think the city will fall in two weeks - less if Miller begins withdrawing cadres of the fighting units.

[Q-Ball]

Do you guys have a HR keeping the RTA in Thailand? If so they are probably massing at the border.....

Pretty crap-tastic troops, but 6 divisions of anything might slow you down a bit

Do you have any Perm-Restricted units in Burma?

How many Chinese?

Historically, it was very difficult to get Chaing to release a few troops that were equipped by the US....I think getting them to agree to a major ground commitment in Thailand would be unrealistic (and probably a good way to get the Thais to fight harder).

[Canoerebel]

No HR regarding the RTA.  One division is in Rangoon.
 
I don't have any permanent restricted troops in Burma (I'm not even sure what a permanent restricted unit is?).  I've paid political points for all of the restricted Indian and Chinese units that I'm using in theater.
 
I'm going to use the Chinese that I have on hand.  It's not much - perhaps six divisions that can be built up to something like 220 AV each.  Miller destroyed China utilizing the dratted massed artillery and strategic bombing techniques, so these Chinese units (and Chiang) are so pissed off that they've agreed to serve under British and American command anywhere in SE Asia.  (I think that's pretty plausible given the way the game developed).

[Canoerebel]

Based upon an email from Miller, things may get interesting around Rangoon...and it appears that first he made a bad miscalculation and now I have:
 
1.  Miller says once he saw the size of my army at Pegu he knew he had to evacuate Rangoon.  How in the heck this happened to "slip up" on him escapes me, though, since both Allied armies were gathering strength in his immediate front for at least six months.  He goofed bad here - in part I wonder if he didn't realize that losing Pegu would isolate his army in Rangoon.
 
2.  But for every mistake he makes aren't I required to make an equal and opposite mistake?  He says he had already ordered his army to evacuate Rangoon for Pegu and he thinks they'll make it this turn.  Well, shiver me timbers!  I thought my attack at Rangoon last turn would freeze his units in place.  I also thought they wouldn't be able to move to Pegu since it's now in Allied hands.  So....I had ordered a bunch of my troops to move toward Moulmein.  I don't think they'll leave the hex before I cancel the orders, but instead of having 1100 AV 100% prepped for Pegu, I'll have 1100 AV of which perhaps 1/5th is 100% prepped and the rest is 0% prepped.  *ack*!
 
It will be interesting to see what happens.  My army at Pegu is fresh and just emerged victorious while his just took a pretty good hit at Rangoon - plus I'll have the huge army at Rangoon right on his heels.  I don't know if he can take Pegu.  If he doesn't, can I surround his army and destroy it or will he have or manage some route of retreat?  Stay tuned....

[crsutton]

It will be interesting because as soon as he leaves Rangoon and you snatch it, he is out of supply and will get no more than he can carry. If you survive the first attack at Pegu,  he is done for. This one you can afford to lose but he cannot. I think I would rather be in your shoes.

[ny59giants]

If you can afford to, I would put LRCAP over Rangoon to see if you can stop him from using transports (or at least hurt him).
 
Strategic targets - Oil and/or HI
 
I smell an invasion of northern Sumatra in the works. [;)] 

[Canoerebel]

I just got the combat report.  The Japanese evacuated Rangoon, but on the first day of our two day turn, the Allied attack roughed  up an IJA regiment (following closely on the 4k casualties the IJA took a few days ago).  So the Japanese army at Pegu is pretty beat up.  It's raw AV should be 1000 or less.  The Allied army there should be at least 1100 AV (assuming I am able to cancel the orders of my troops before they leave the hex, which I think I can because they were set to "combat" march).

So you're right, crsutton, the Japanese will be in trouble if that first attack fails.  Within a couple of days at least 1000 AV will advance from Rangoon to Pegu and then the doors are closed.  Miller's army may find some viable route of retreat, but I'll do my best to corral and destroy it.  Pegu is a coastal hex so he might try FT, but I'll have a BB TF stationed at Rangoon to contest the effort.

NYGiants:  No impending amphibious operations in SEAC.  In late '42 the Prime Minister and the President agreed that nearly all UK troops and combat ships would be devoted to the Allied advance into the DEI from Australia.  It took many months, but most Brit regiments and alot of support units and ships are there and are playing a vital role in the Allied advance there.  The Allies intend to put all their effort into severing the LOC between the Home Island and the DEI and then will move north.  I doubt I'll ever move on either Sumatra or Java in any meaningful way. 

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm going to use the Chinese that I have on hand.  It's not much - perhaps six divisions that can be built up to something like 220 AV each.  Miller destroyed China utilizing the dratted massed artillery and strategic bombing techniques, so these Chinese units (and Chiang) are so pissed off that they've agreed to serve under British and American command anywhere in SE Asia.  (I think that's pretty plausible given the way the game developed).

An aside, and you have awhile to go yet, but stay aware of Rule 8.8

[Canoerebel]

Zoiks, what's Rule 8.8?! I don't have the game or manual loaded on my home computer...and I'm here at home for the next ten hours wondering if I've forgotten something important....

So, what's Rule 8.8? Is it something nasty that happens if the Chinese go into Thailand?

[Heeward]

WITPAE Manual 8.8 INDO-CHINA JAPANESE MILITIA Each time an Allied unit moves into Indo-China, the Japanese will receive a Japanese (representing Vietnamese/Vichy French forces) militia division (up to a maximum of 4). Thus if 2 ground units move into Indo-China, and then 1 unit moves from one border hex to another, 3 militia divisions will be formed. These militia divisions will be formed in Hanoi, Haiphong, Luang Prabang, and Hue in that order, and they will be formed at 1/3 strength.

[freeboy]

looks like a good way to reduce enemy suplies in the endgame, give then some broke down militia to help eat up their supplies! AWESOME!
 

[pat.casey]

Those IndoChina militia divisions are reasonably weak at the start; empty TOE, poor experience, etc. Really won't let them dissuade you from making a push.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

Those IndoChina militia divisions are reasonably weak at the start; empty TOE, poor experience, etc. Really won't let them dissuade you from making a push.

I agree; I was only pointing out the rule as it's pretty small in the manual and few players have gotten that far in the game.

OTOH, if the Indo-China ingress is with para-dropped troops alone, even one of these paste-eater LCUs could clock them.