Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Cribtop]

I'd bet he was probing for mines and CD gun strength at Oosthaven.

[Canoerebel]

5/19/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  Allied combat ships rough up a smaller IJ transport TF, probably sinking 4 xAK, 2 PB and an SC.  Steve says all these ships had been given orders to head to Moulmein back before the Allied invasion.  That doesn't sound quite right to me - why would he send troops to vacant Moulmein when Rangoon was much more important?  Not sure whether he's dissembling here.  All ships are retiring to Colombo to replenish, except the Ent/York TF which remains on patrol west of Port Blair "just in case" Steve tries something new.
 
Burma:  Two IJ units have moved to the hex east of Rangoon, where 450 Allied AV are sitting.  The IJ force is pretty weak, so the Allies expect to repulse them tomorrow and to then move into Rangoon shortly thereafter.
 
DEI: The massive Semereng invasion armada is breaking up and moving off to the NE.  It will be a week or weeks or longer before Steve is ready to orchestrate his next move.  By then, the Allied carriers will be replenished and back on station.
 
Pago Pago:  SigInt that 87th Nav Guard is aboard a maru bound for Pago Pago.  The Allies are very, very pleased that Japan is reinforcing a rather hopeless situation.
 
Pearl Harbor:  The troops have unloaded and are switching from strategic to combat modes.  Two TFs east of Pearl at other bases are loading a Marine RCT and a tank unit.  D-Day at Tarawa in 20 days or less.

[Canoerebel]

5/20/42
 
Burma:  The Allied army at Pegu threw back an IJ regiment and artillery unit, but the odds weren't as one-sided as I had expected.  Rangoon isn't stronlgy defended - perhaps the equivalent of three poorly supplied regiments - but with the urban bonus it might be tough.  At Mandalay tomorrow, the Burma army will be in action against a newly arrived IJ unit - probably a poorly supplied infantry regiment.  150 Chinese AV will arrive at Lashio in a day or two, facing yet another regiment.
 
Bay of Bengal:  The Allied navy continues to mop up scattered weak opposition.  Two carrier TFs have already replenished and refueled at Colombo and depart tomorrow - one to replace Ent/York on patrol west of Port Blair (while those two CVs make for Colombo) and the other to join Saratoga and Hornet south of Sumatra.  Steve is scrambling to get aircraft and base forces to Bangkok and Rangoon.
 
Sumatra:  Quiet at the moment.
 
Java:  KB still just NE of Semereng.
 
Pago Pago:  The Japanese reinforcements arrive tomorrow or the following day.  The recent Allied reinforcement of this island should come as a rude surprise.
 
Tarawa Invasion:  The troops at Pearl begin loading tomorrow.  The force shall include 193 Tanks, 8th Marines, 102 Combat Engineers, 32nd Div., 4th Field Artillery, 10th Sea Bees, 119 USAAF Base Force.  9th Marines is also available, though I've got to carefully weigh force allocation to make sure I have enough supply.  Also, 138 RCT is prepped for Ocean Island.  If there are transports to spare (unlikely), it comes too.  The Allies will use alot of AP and AK, so unloading should be relatively efficient.
 
NoPac:  Enemy TF well east of the Kuriles possbily raiding the Aluetians.  The Tennessee/Houston TF is in the vicinity.

[Canoerebel]

Steve hasn't tried an air raid against Palembang or Oosthaven in months.  I'm pretty sure he's hoarding his fighters for training purposes after the shellackings he took over Singapore early in the year.  This tells me that he might well be reading Nemo's "Salutations" AAR in which he (Nemo) opined as to how One-Eyed might best deal with a Fortress Sumatra.
 
There's no question now that it will take Japan well into July or later to deal with Sumatra, and it's possible that Palembang won't be vanquished.  It should be a titanic battle, though.
 
In the meantime, the Allies have many effective operations underway (Burma, China, Pago Pago, Kuriles), more about to get underway (Tarawa and possibly Ocean Island), some in mind mid term (reinforcing Paramushiro, if conditions permit, and invading Baker Island), and distant term (invasion of Mili and Nauru, reinforcement and occupation of Port Moresby, Milne Bay and associated islands).
 
The main brake on Allied activity continues to be political points.  For instance, I'd proceed with New Guinea immediately if I could afford to buy the Aussie units needed, but Paramushiro has a much higher priority unless and until Steve allocates the forces to make such an operation infeasible.
 
The overall feeling is that the Allies know what they want to do and when they want to do it (subject of course to modifications as conditions warrant).  The Battle of Sumatra is going to be tense and critical, but the Allies are effectively forcing the enemy to allocate assets elsewhere or face dire results.
 
So, overall I'm pleased.

[princep01]

Canoe, doesn't the intervention of Chinese troops into Burma activate some sort of reinforcement for the IJA? Memory may fail me here, but I think that the IJA receives a couple of relatively poorly trained Burmese divisions or some such. It is not an insubstantial reinforcement. That may be what is showing up in Mandalay. May want to check this out in the manual.

Your bold move into Burma is already paying nice dividends. Are you able to reinforce and make this a threat beyond cutting off the regiments in Burma....like a threat to Bangkok or even Singapore? Here we are in May 42 and you have him dancing to your tune(s).....what a puppeteer you are, sir:)!

I am confused by your opponent's willingness to expose the location of the KB w/o compensatory action that it is directly supporting. Is it actually supporting the Java landing or some other offensive action or is it (as it seems) just bubbling about as some kind of general deterent to Allied tactical strikes against his shipping in the area? If the latter, then you have achieved yet another strategic victory as knowing its whereabouts allows you something of a free hand elsewhere....like the eastern Pacific. I don't understand his strategy here at all. Then again, I get made the fool all the time in this game.

As to Pago-Pago...he's throwing good money after bad in classic style. Let him reap the whirlwind.

[Nemo121]

It is interesting to see how the committment of the Allied CVs too early is now having repercussions. As I see it 1 CV is isolated down south, 4 are now replenishing and 2 more are hovering in the region of Rangoon ready to kill transports if they proceed to push the landing. That's your primary asset of strategic decision split into three groups, none of which is mutually supporting, because of replenishment needs.

Your opponent won't take advantage of this but were he more capable he could easily cover the landings in Java with LBA and free his carriers to pin one element of your CV forces and anihilate it. Were I in his shoes once you had made that strike I would have pursued with KB, pushing the Allied CVs back and into either Colombo or Australia. This would have made the fight in Java/sumatra an LBA vs LBA affair ( since there are few Allied players who would have unloaded their CV-based planes whilst running pell-mell from a rampaging combined KB) and been a chase that the Japanese KB could probably have won as it would have more recently refuelled than the Allies ( KB should have topped up its tanks in Southern Borneo while the Allies would have had to transit from western Oz/Ceylon and thus should have less fuel to expend in the chase ).

Assuming 1 week to read Perth or Ceylon and refuel and 1 week to return to the fray that would give 2 weeks of freedom to Japanese forces in-theatre and in 2 weeks a competent player could arrange multiple multi-Corps amphibious invasions covered by LBA throughout the whole DEI/Burma theatre.


Of course you fit the plan to the opponent and your opponent is now trying to be methodical but still miscalculating and losing far more force than he should. The primary question now, for you, is, I believe, how you phase your remaining operations. Do you rush ahead now or give him the time and space he needs to fit the noose over his own neck by committing his reserves to Burma and Java before you pull the trigger elsewhere.


One question: Why do you have a single CV hanging around south of Java? It is too small a force to tackle any sizeable force the IJN might commit but is enough of a force to be worth hunting down ( which, admittedly, your opponent hasn't shown capable of doing ). I am just wondering what the rationale is in having an isolated force which is too small to meaningfully impede the enemy but sufficiently valuable to be a significant loss hanging around so near to an active theatre. It seems like there's a lot of downside but not real upside to that disposition. Could you post a map of CV positions? I'm really very curious about them for a number of reasons:
1. They are your strategic reserve.
2. They are your primary means of strategic decision at this point in time.
3. Your handling of them recently has garnered you a lot of kills but I'm concerned that some players could use such play to lay traps for you and that your search for kills at the expense of strategic freedom of action could be costly.
4. If we were ever to play this sort of situation is precisely what I'd seek to create and then disembowel you over. Honestly, if I saw this in a game I'd think this was the perfect situation for Japan to make a great strategic leap forward. Your forces are dispersed, not mutually supporting, have frittered away their combat potential for the next week or more and there's a potential for pinning your force near Rangoon against the Indian coastline east of Ceylon and using the bulk of the island to use KB to block your run westward while land-based Netties launch attritional raids vs just one small group of your CVs. I'd really be looking at taking out half of your CV force over the next week ( especially since I would figure your CVs hitting the force near Rangoon would be relatively low on fuel and thus not capable of making a lot of high speed dashes without refuelling in either Southern India or Ceylon - which would let me pin and destroy them). FWIW though I don't think you need to worry about that in this game but, as I said, I think your challenge now is to prep for the next game. This one has been over for months as a going concern.


Princep,
I think those IJA Militia Divisions are activated if the Chinese move into Vietnam ( French IndoChina ). The IJA doesnt' get anything if they move into Burma. It may well be time to consider a push by the Chinese out of China into Vietnam in order to link up with British and Indian troops moving down into Thailand from Burma. I'm a big fan of an Allied land corridor via Thailand and Vietnam into southern China.

[paullus99]

Nemo - I agree with some of your analysis. Against a more aggressive & more psychologically prepared player, splitting up the allied carrier forces at this time would invite disaster. In this instance, Chaz is still unaware of the exact location of the allied forces (as they did not reveal themselves in the most recent action - I believe only SCTF were involved).

For Chaz to try to drive back into the Bay of Bengal or south of Sumatra without have much idea of what he is facing (and Canoe has shown a beguiling ability to have this forces in the right place at the right time to inflict maximum damage), he'd be putting his sole remaining mobile asset, the KB in harm's way without knowing what he'd be getting in return.

As the climatic battle approaches, I would recommend that Canoe concentrate his forces again & make preparations for alternative re-provisioning (the AKE & AE idea above seems like a good one to me). Chaz also doesn't seem to have the ability or the inclination to properly constitute of 3-Dimensional threat (surface, carrier & LBA) in actions thus far - and I don't know if this ability will suddenly manifest itself, in light of the multiple threats he is currently having to deal with.

He's got too many hotspots & doesn't seem to be able to close out any of them to better concentrate on the main area - losing over 20 transports in an attempt to reinforce his Burma position, again without gauging the level of threat by allied forces on the SLOCs is a sign of lack of attention & consideration in his movements. Even if Canoe is unable to completely dislodge the Japanese from Burma, they've suffered yet another setback and are now fighting for positions they should instead be using for offensive power projection against the allies in the Bay of Bengal.

Of course, everything else is a bit of sideshow at this point, because the allies lack the PPs and forces to create a true strategic offensive threat (although Canoe is doing a great job bluffing here) - but that will certainly change as additional forces and especially carriers are available to support operations elsewhere.

Unless Chaz can truly close the deal on Sumatra, and do so without taking massive losses to his surface and LBA assets, Canoe will be in a position, once more forces are available, to turn any number of the current sideshow operations into major offensive jumping-off points.

[Miller]

If I was Chez I would be hunting high and low for the Allied CVs with the KB, not having it standing off Java covering a pointless invasion. Its about the only advantage he has over you in the game now.

[Cribtop]

Between an AKE, a fleet HQ and building up the port with those marvelous Allied engineers, you might make Cocos Island a serviceable pit stop (I don't know its starting and max port levels). If nothing else, the need to retire to Ceylon after every CV strike points out a problem best addressed before the big show if possible.

[John 3rd]

I disagree a bit with Miller's thought above. Chez must DO something and truly needs to be three dimensional at this point.

The KB is his sole remaining major asset but he has to be cautious with it due to Dan's concentration of CVs. If battle does occur it will be very bloody for BOTH sides and that does not benefit Chez whatsoever. He needs to isolate or trap a portion of the Allied Fleet without significant loss to his forces. With Dan's playing and skills he will have a very difficult time doing this.

[Nemo121]

(and Canoe has shown a beguiling ability to have this forces in the right place at the right time to inflict maximum damage),

With all due respect that isn't true. Canoerebel has shown the ability to inflict some damage when his opponent fails to cover forces. We can all deliver a beating to someone who fails to cover relatively defenceless forces. To say that that's maximum damage is to make the assumption better opportunities wouldn't have presented themselves. As it is half his CVs are out of position at the moment because he hit one minor force which preceded the main landings.

Also there was a strong case to be made for allowing the landings to go ahead and only hitting those ships on the return journey. Yet that wasn't considered at all. Only the possibility of sinking ships and killing troops was mentioned. Sometimes, strategically, it is better to let a small opportunity ( sinking 20 AKs and a division etc is, in the greater scheme of things not strategically decisive) pass in order to gain a much greater opportunity a short period down the road.

Personally, two thoughts would have governed my thinking on seeing that convoy making for Rangoon:
1. Mines which wound take 3 to 4 men out of the fight while mines which kill immediately only remove one man from the fight.
2. Subutai won a great victory at Mohi not because he swooped in when the enemy was trapped but precisely because he passed up the first opportunity in order to capitalise on a much more favourable opportunity which his opponents gifted him through their use of the initiative to create a much less favourable position for themselves.

A more obvious example would be Kadesh. It illustrates the danger of splitting force - the distance between Amun and Re and the inability of Ptah and Seth divisions to get into the fight at all shows that - and also the dangers of settling for a small win ( the Hittites could have taken half of Rameses' divisions in an afternoon if they hadn't settled but had committed the reserve. Instead they only committed the reserve to avert defeat at the end of the day instead of committing it to gain victory midway through the day ).

As to your assessment of Chez's options in terms of committing... Well, this game was over months ago. I stated as much months ago once it was clear Chez couldn't deal with the whole Boyd cycle thing. So I wasn't saying what Chez might do. It has been my contention for some months now that Canoerebel needs to play the rest of this game as a learning game in which he assumes he's playing a top-flight player so that when he does play a game against someone good he will have had practice with the types of assessment and action which will be necessary then. Otherwise he'll find himself getting spanked early on as he "expects" them to be as laggardly as Chez is.

This game has been over as a going concern since late January, as I said at the time. My only concern now is not over whether Canoerebel will win ( he will ) but over whether or not he learns the reflexes necessary for his next game. Anyways, I'm obviously coming at this from a different perspective than most. I really don't see why there's so much wonder from others about what Chez will do. Whatever he does won't be as a result of a roots and branch re-analysis and so won't be enough. That much has been clear for months. Whatever he does Canoerebel should be able to handle easily even with sub-optimal choices regarding the reserve and the opening of other theatres. If he makes optimal choices then Chez's situation will cascade rapidly downward and things will finish much more rapidly, IMO.

[Canoerebel]

I type so many lengthy reports that there's no way anybody could keep track of everything that's going on in the game and why I do all the things I do (though I am constantly amazed at the recollection that many of you demonstrate).  There are, to my way of thinking, good reasons for what I'm doing.  Most of them have been mentioned previously, but to summarize:
 
1)  I left a chain of carriers - Saratoga and Hornet - between Colombo and Sumatra so that I could transfer carrier aircraft back to Sumatra if needed.  (I didn't just offload them to Sumatra because the bases are crammed full of aircraft).
 
2)  I diverted some carriers to the Andamans area briefly because all my combat ships expended their ammo.  I consider Burma a major operation in support of Sumatra's defense.  Steve doesn't have supply there, so he can't fly offensive air misssions.  Also, Rangoon is weakly defended.  It is essential to prevent him from reinforcing or resupplying before the Allied army arrives at Rangoon in two or three days.
 
3)  All the Allied carriers will be back on station south of Sumatra within ten days.  But I can call on all the air squadrons if needed in the meantime.
 
4)  The danger to Saratoga and Hornet is minimal.  Steve has no detection of them.  Furthermore, Java is iin between them and the KB (the KB is to the NE (true) of Java, the Allied carriers are west of Cacos Island). The KB couldn't catch them even if Steve knew where they were.
 
5)  The Allies do permit enemy transports to come in and load at times.  As stated, I'm welcoming the Japanese efforts to reinforce the army at Pago Pago, because Steve is reinforcing defeat.  I'm not quite sure if Nemo was suggesting I should have allowed the supply and troop ships to reach Rangoon.  I doubt that's what he was suggesting, because doing so would have been the height of folly.
 
6)  I certaiinly wouldn't be doing some of the major things I'm doing here against other opponents.  But I not playing any other opponent.  More importantly, I think I am cognizant of some or even many of the things I wouldn't be free to do.

[princep01]

Nemo, as usual, makes some good points. However, in his analysis he recognizes, as do other commentators, that you are playing a particular individual that has been psychologically stunted for sometime (in a game sense only, Chez). Nemo then discusses some thoughts that further play in this game should be geared toward the next encounter, presumably against an even stronger opponent. This is a reasonable hypothesis. I have no problem with it if that is how the CR wants to play this game.

However, I, and some of the other commentators, do not postulate beyond this game. When confined to this game, I think CR's actions/reactions have been quite good. Surely one can point out a mistake here or there, but the facts remains the same. The Japanese have been blistered again and again to the point that they are in real danger of completely losing the strategic initiative relatively early in the war. This is a very interesting thing to me. It is seldom seen in most WitP games wherein Nemo, or a player of his stature, is not the Allies. It is a teaching experience to me that I, for one, appreciate.

As to the split up of the CVs, I only reiterate what others note in saying that there is little to no danger in this.....in this game. It appears that his opponent has been reduced to using KB as an instrument of escort. Clearly this is a direct result of those earlier successful tactical assaults by the Allies. It is a shameful waste of this mighty force.

Keep pulling the strings, puppet master. The Imperial Japanese will soon enough see the folly of their ways and lay down the sword.

Nemo: Thanks for clarifying the SE Asia reinforcement issue. I thought Chinese moving in Burma triggered something, but reading the manual, I think you are correct.

[Canoerebel]

5/21/42
 
Sumatra:  The first massed IJ sweeps in months target Palembag.  On the day, I counted 36 IJ fighters lost (Zeros and Oscars) to 26 for the Allies during the animated replay.  This dovetails with the aircraft losses shown on the information screen, and is significantly more than shown on the actual combat report.  I think the combat replay is much more accurate than the combat report.  The Allies did okay on the day, but not spectuacularly.
 
Java:  KB remains in postion just NE of Semereng.  The IJA untis are slowly advancing, with harrassing missions by B-17s slowing them down a bit.
 
Bay of Bengal:  A USN three-DD force sinks a PB and four already-damaged xAK south of Tavoy.  The area appears devoid of IJ shipping, with nothing coming up the Malacca Straits.  Accordingly, York and Ent will retire to nearby Colombo to replenish.
 
Burma:  The Burma Army easily (suprisingly, to me) dispatches a decent IJA regiment (15th Guards) at Mandalay, meaning that two of the three IJA regiments in western Burma have been defeated.  The third, at Lashio, will be hit by two weak Chinese divisions day after tomorrow.  The Allied army at Pegu will reach Rangoon in two or three days.  That's going to be the critical decision in this campaign.  If the Allies take Rangoon, they can hold Burma in force, strengthening their grip while Japan deals with Sumatra over the next two months.  If Rangoon somehow looks too tough, the Allies will either bring reinforcements or march their army up towards Mandalay, sweeping aside the pathetic remants of Japan's western Burma army.  Hurricanes operating out of Pegu handled some weak enemy air raids.
 
China:  A Chinese stack out of Changsha attacked and nearly achieved 2:1 odds vs. the fresh IJA 40th Division.  The troops will rest a few days and reinforcements will come up.  Mauling enemy units whenever possible is the name of the game, so the Allies are delighted Japan chose to bring this unit forward.
 
NoPac:  A small IJ carrier force carrying Kates (I think Hosho is part) attacked the Allied combat TF near Amchitka, putting a TT into BB Tennessee, which suffered light damage.  There's another IJ combat TF trailing.  I'm not sure what Steve's up to yet.  A raid?  Possibly reinforcing Amchitka.
 
CenPac:  Oof.  I left one of the two big transport TFs set to retire, so it was on its way back to San Diego.  It will take an extra day to begin loading the Tarawa invasion TFs.  I don't believe I'll have enough to carry the Ocean Island component, but we'll see.
 
Pago Pago:  Enemy reinforcement TF will arrive tomorrow.  I am looking forward to whatever damage Allied shore guns might inflict and to seeing which IJN capital ships are present.  I'm also hoping the strength of the Allied garrison at PP will really surprise Steve.
 
Status:  Hey, we're in late May!  IIRC, BradfordKay once told me that in his game with Steve, Japan took Palembang on May 22. 

[Canoerebel]

5/22/42
 
Pago Pago:  The Japanese reinforcement convoy comes in - complete with BB Hiei and CAs Chikuma and Tone.  Mines and shore guns rough up four or five transports.  The Japanese land six more Naval Guards units, boosting AV up near 700.  The Japanese now have 11 Nav Guard units, two regiments, a recon unit, 20th Engineer Regiment, and 37th JNAF base force.  (Query:  Is 11 Nav Guard units a large enough commitment to suggest that Japanese-held islands elsewhere might be underprotected?)  The Allies seem to be in pretty good shape here - 370 AV vs. 690 AV, with forts nearing four and plenty of supply.  I think Japan will have to reinforce...which makes me ponder the possibility of committing Wasp (when she arrives) to take a crack at the BB and CAs, which are way out in the open and unprotected.  The Allies have one other RCT prepping for PP, currently at Pearl.  It will be committed if there are ever sufficient political points.

NoPac:  Hosho confirmed in this theater (Bolos from Adak missed a shot at her).  The Japanese scored a few bomb hits on Tennessee and one on CA Houston.  I'd like to use Wasp up here, too.  When Wasp arrives at Balboa in three weeks, I'll way the opportunities at PP and in NoPac before committing her. Tennessee will retire to Seattle, where Maryland and Idaho are currently under repair.  Pennsylvania, currently at Alameda, will be ready for action in about two weeks.

China:  After yesterday's battle, I though my Chinese stack east of Changsha would automatically reset to "defend."  However, the computer decided that odds for a second assault vs. 40th IJA Div. were acceptable.  The attack occurred and 40th Div. was forced to retreat, losing 58 infantry squads destroyed and 132 non-combat squads destroyed.  That's the sixth IJA Div. roughed up in China in recent weeks, though this one hasn't been "mauled" (yet).

Burma:  The Allies moved a Banshee squadron forward from Madras to Calcutta to Mandalay in recent weeks.  Yesterday, when patrols reported enemy shipping at Bangkok without fighters there, the Banshees went forward to Tavoy.  They sortied and badly damaged or sank two xAK and an SC.  I think the Allied army at Pegu will be in place to attack Rangoon day after tomorrow.

Sumatra:  Large enemy sweeps vs. Djambi, two hexes west of Palembang, drew Allied fighter CAP from the latter.  The Allies were the victors, though the numbers lost weren't very high.  I need to consider limiting the range of my fighters so that they don't get fatigued defending non-critical terrain.

Java:  KB has moved a bit to the NE.  The Japanese took vacant Djakarta.  B-17s continue harrassment missions to slow the enemy advance - this is a non-sexy use of 4EB, but might be absolutely critical to the defense of Sumatra.  Every day of delay in Japan's efforts to take and build bases in western Java is another day bought for Sumatra.

[ny59giants]

How high up the CV priority ladder will Wasp be to receive the new Avenger TBs that are coming in?? If your going after BBs and CAs, I would say it needs to be pretty high.

[Canoerebel]

Good point.

[ny59giants]

If you're going directly to Pago Pago, you will need to find a size 7 AF to upgrade. Do you have Christmas Island maxed out?? If not, then you may have to go to Pearl first. Pilot quality may be an issue at start for Wasp.

[GreyJoy]

Without the KB in cover i'd say move to Pago Pago even your surface assets and the Wasp as soon as it arrives. I know jap surface ships have a huge advantage at this stage of the war against american ones...but if you can manage to catch those transports or a good bombardment run against his ashore troops can really ruin his day...he's going nowehere with those naval units me think. In my game a couple of indian Bde managed to swallow 4 and then 3 Naval guard units before succumbing against a round-the-clock BBs bombardment lasted one week... so i'd say, bring in everything you have in the pacific...make him run away with his ships and then transform pago pago in a pow camp

[Canoerebel]

If Steve has any semblance of firepower at Pago Pago, he'll try an attack in a day or two to probe the Allied defenses.  On the other hand, if he has huge supply and disruption problems, his only alternatives are to bring reinforcements or try big bombardment runs with Hiei and friends.
 
The USA RCT prepping for Pago Pago at Pearl is assigned to Hawaiian Command, so it won't take many PP to buy it - perhaps 100 or so.  I've got that, but all my shipping at Pearl is designated for the Tarawa invasion.  So I'll send more transports to Pearl from San Diego.  I don't want enough AV to evict the Japanese from PP - just enough to prevent Japan from taking it, thus pressuring Steve to allocate more time and resource to this tar baby.
 
The San Francisco/Pensacola TF will be just south of PP tomorrow.  If the Japanese expend more ammo against PP tomorrow, the capital ships will be out of big-caliber stuff.  In that case, the USN CAs will seek battle the following day (even though they have 82% ammo after clashing with the Yubari TF a week ago).