The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I decided to remain aggressive with the carriers.  They'll close to within six hexes of Port Headland (airfield size one with lots of enemy shipping) which is ten hexes from Broome (level three) and six or seven from Corunna Downs (level three). 

Nettys cannot carry torps from level 3 bases, so your CVs will be safe at those ranges.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I decided to remain aggressive with the carriers.  They'll close to within six hexes of Port Headland (airfield size one with lots of enemy shipping) which is ten hexes from Broome (level three) and six or seven from Corunna Downs (level three). 

Nettys cannot carry torps from level 3 bases, so your CVs will be safe at those ranges.

Miller, Nettys can carry torps from level 3 bases if there is an Air HQ present.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I decided to remain aggressive with the carriers.  They'll close to within six hexes of Port Headland (airfield size one with lots of enemy shipping) which is ten hexes from Broome (level three) and six or seven from Corunna Downs (level three). 

Nettys cannot carry torps from level 3 bases, so your CVs will be safe at those ranges.

Miller, Nettys can carry torps from level 3 bases if there is an Air HQ present.

And it seems that Nell's are coming from somewhere doing a rather good job of sinking the New Mexico ..[8D] I assume x2 supply and Torps available are needed also [&:]

[Canoerebel]

The torp-toting Netties came from Carnavon, a level four field with an Air Flotilla unit (that's an air HQ, right?).  It's possible that John will clear this airfield since the Allies should take the base tomorrow, but if I was him I'd risk 10 to 20 Netties in hopes of finishing off Astoria and perhaps scoring more.
 
The only other airfields of decent size in range are Broome and Corunna Downs, both level three. He might have an air HQ at one or both, but I think it's not that likely - after all, these were rear area bases until just a couple of days ago and air HQ are relatively scarce, I'm thinking.
 
However, I made my decision to move my carriers forward on the assumption that these bases could have torp-carrying bombers.
 
In all likelihood, this will be my last forward move with my carriers, assuming strikes are flown reducing my sorties to 60% or so.  At that point, my carriers will take station off Exmouth to dissuade John from getting too frisky as I try to take that base.

[Cribtop]

Interesting that he built Carnarvon but garrisoned Exmouth. I would go with your scaled-down take Carnarvon and Exmouth plan for now. The NW corner of Oz can be a dangerous place for the Allies to run naval Ops until these bases are secured and built up.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Miller

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I decided to remain aggressive with the carriers.  They'll close to within six hexes of Port Headland (airfield size one with lots of enemy shipping) which is ten hexes from Broome (level three) and six or seven from Corunna Downs (level three). 

Nettys cannot carry torps from level 3 bases, so your CVs will be safe at those ranges.

Miller, Nettys can carry torps from level 3 bases if there is an Air HQ present.

Wow, despite all the time I have spent playing this game I never realised that!

[Canoerebel]

06/17/42

Exmouth:  Four USN destroyers tangle to no effect with four IJN destroyers.  The American carriers stand to the north, maul moderately sized attacks by Nells from Corunna Downs (one Nell makes it through the big CAP to miss Enterprise), and sortie against one IJN DD, doing some damage.  The IJN 400 AV army isn't attacking my 135 AV army (bolstered slightly today be the arrival of the remnant of a US Army battalion), meaning John's guys must be low on supply or otherwise combat ineffective.  To answer Cribtop's comment, I think my moves caught John in the midst of shuffling his forces around, pulling out to Assault Divisions from Carnavon to send them to Exmouth or further north.  I'm going to try to shoehorn in reinforcements, beginning with a USA RCT at Geraldton (topnotch amphibious ships should reach that base tomorrow).  The US carriers will pull back just a bit tonight, their mission transitioning for the moment to supporting the pending moves on Exmouth (and also to hopefully draw attention away from badly damaged Astoria, which has a chance).

Carnavon:  The much stronger Allied army at Carnavon shock attacks but the adjusted AV is drastic, making it a 1:2 that nevertheless inflicts higher damage on the enemy but doesn't touch three forts.  Despite disruption in the 60s, I'm going to attack again tomorrow just for th heck of it.  Indianapolis and Minneapolis will bombard prior.  A Marine tank unit is two days out.  A good Aussie brigade is about five or six days away.

Bay of Bengal:  Nothing of note happens, which is good.  For now, the Allies are concentrating on getting troops to forward bases (Ramree and Akyab) and building all area bases.

NoPac:  Big fighter clashes over Cold Bay.  Japan wins today's clash.

CenPac:  One big element of KB still at Jaluit, but one appears to be missing.  I'm getting great patrols from a PBY squadron posted at a dot hex with an AVP (John probably assumes these are coming from the Gilberts).  I don't know where the other branch of the KB is, but I'm suspicious this will head for western Oz.  I still have patrols operating out of Manado with good supply, so I might pick up any move west from the Truk/Rabaul direction that might help me deduce whether the carriers are bound for Oz or Bay of Bengal.

SoPac:  This likely will be the next vector of attack for the Allies, though probably nothing in the near term.

Near Term Allied Plans:  The most important moves are in Burma and Bay of Bengal, but Oz is pretty important.  I should take Carnavon within the week.  I have a chance at Exmouth, but I suspect John will fight hard. I bet he's moving biggers stuff this way now.  If I ultimately end up with just Carnavon, that's fine as long as I don't lose any carriers in the meantime.

Gifted:  My gift for organization and planning was on display today as a B-17 squadron arrived at Socatra after a long journey from East Coast via Capetown.  She's due for withdrawal in two weeks.  [8|]

[Canoerebel]

One more important note.  The Allies have 1300 political points and I've been torn between buying a 1200-PP Australian division at Perth to help with the Exmouth operation or towards buying 41st USA Div. (1900 PP) which just arrived at Capetown.  I'm almost certain to go with 41st Div. on the belief that Burma is more important and that 41st will be more effective than would the Aussie division at Exmouth.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Despite disruption in the 60s, I'm going to attack again tomorrow just for th heck of it. 

Why are you doing that?

[Canoerebel]

It's worth the shot:  If it fails, no big deal, I rest my guys and renew the attack in a few days, reinforced by Marine tanks.  If it succeeds, I take the main Japanese airfield that poses a threat and I free up units that I can them make the quick leap forward to Exmouth.  The last attack, though it failed, inflicted much higher casulaties on Japan.  Plus it looks like my guys are fully supplied today.  So...why not?

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One more important note.  The Allies have 1300 political points and I've been torn between buying a 1200-PP Australian division at Perth to help with the Exmouth operation or towards buying 41st USA Div. (1900 PP) which just arrived at Capetown.  I'm almost certain to go with 41st Div. on the belief that Burma is more important and that 41st will be more effective than would the Aussie division at Exmouth.

My .02 I agree with this CR ... The US presence in Burma has multiplicative affects including the ability to absorb destroyed squads vs the Commonwealth units, as well as firepower density implications critical to addressing stacking limits in Burma. I find 2 US divisions and some armor is the ticket to break certain key Burmese jungle hexes....Time is of the essence here as once the IJ have a chance to reinforce and dig in .. you might be in a Verdun situation .. but if this IJ error is seized upon now .. once Burma unfolds the IJ will be a puppet reacting to the Allies .. On teh other hand Oz can be dealt with accordingly at any time ..

[Canoerebel]

6/18/42
 
Exmouth:  Allied deliberate attack at low odds fails.  This probing attack might draw a strong enemy counterattack with the Allied force now weakened. 
 
Carnavon:  The CA bombardment TF proves highly effective, damaging and destroying many aircraft on the ground - including lots of Nells - and basically shutting down the airfield.  The Allied deliberate attack comes off at 13:14, doesn't touch forts, and destroys 27 enemy units to 0 for the Allies.  Now my two units have disruption in the 70s, so they'll rest a few days.  The Marine tank unit will arrive tomorrow and attack the day after.  The carriers will move WSW of Carnavon.
 
Oz:  This operation is losing steam.  Things are dragging out and proving tougher than anticipated.  Once Carnavon falls, that big airfield in close proximity to Exmouth might breath new life into things, but I'm adjusting my expectations a bit.  John's getting enough time to gather a counterpunch, so I want to err on the side of caution.  (I'm mulling over having my carriers fly a ground attack at Exmouth to disrupt the enemy there, but not sure I want to do that with sorties currently at 73%.)
 
Bay of Bengal:  Enemy mainly quiet - at least the part that I can see.  Ramree Island airfield is slowly progressing to level one.  Akyab isn't making much progress on port building or airfield either.  Cox's Bazaar, Imphal and Dimapur are progressing nicely.
 
China:  Looking good.  John tried an extremely low odds attack at Chengte a few days ago resulting in more than 100 IJA squads destroyed.  He's bombing this base heavily and must think he's making progress, when in fact my units all have 0/3 disruption/fatigue.  He did drop forts from 4 to 3, but the act was at something like 1:20 or 1:30 odds.
 
Pacific:  A stout part of the KB remains parked at Jaluit, with more BB bombardments of both Tarawa and Luganville.  So John hasn't stripped his main force yet to visit Oz or Bay of Bengal.
 
Victory Points:  For the first time since the opening bell, the Japanese lead in "Army Loss" points fell under 10:1. Early in the war, a 10:1 or better lead for Japan seems normal in my games, so this is signficant, especially considering the recent fall of Clark Field.  The Allies have more than a 1,000 plane lead in enemy aircraft destroyed.  And Japan has fallen under 4:1 ratios in numbers of ships sunk and in points for ships sunk.  Again, that's somewhat surprising considering the Allies have lost two slow BBs in recent weeks.  Overall, Japan leads 21.9k to 10.1k, which is considerably less than I usually see at this still-early date in the game.

[Crackaces]

For the first time since the opening bell, the Japanese lead in "Army Loss" points fell under 10:1. Early in the war, a 10:1 or better lead for Japan seems normal in my games, so this is signficant, especially considering the recent fall of Clark Field. The Allies have more than a 1,000 plane lead in enemy aircraft destroyed. And Japan has fallen under 4:1 ratios in numbers of ships sunk and in points for ships sunk. Again, that's somewhat surprising considering the Allies have lost two slow BBs in recent weeks. Overall, Japan leads 21.9k to 10.1k, which is considerably less than I usually see at this still-early date in the game.

I do think this is your first shot at the Yamamoto scenario correct? So I am not sure a direct comparison with Scenario #2 can be made as an example. But .. I do think it is significant in comparing your strategic plan overall context.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Victory Points:  For the first time since the opening bell, the Japanese lead in "Army Loss" points fell under 10:1. Early in the war, a 10:1 or better lead for Japan seems normal in my games, so this is signficant, especially considering the recent fall of Clark Field.  The Allies have more than a 1,000 plane lead in enemy aircraft destroyed.  And Japan has fallen under 4:1 ratios in numbers of ships sunk and in points for ships sunk.  Again, that's somewhat surprising considering the Allies have lost two slow BBs in recent weeks.  Overall, Japan leads 21.9k to 10.1k, which is considerably less than I usually see at this still-early date in the game.

If he barely gets 2:1 odds in early-mid 1942, it bodes ill for the rest of his game. He *should* be hitting his high water mark about now, is this all he can muster in terms of a ratio?

I'd say you're not in danger of a January 1, 1943 Japanese autovictory, Canoerebel. [;)]

[Lecivius]

True, but about now all the Jap toys start rolling off the ways. It would be wise to bear in mind this is a mod. AV is out, but stalemate still in the works.

[Cribtop]

I definitely vote for buying 41st Div. Burma is more decisive than Oz. As for NW Oz, turn it into a big feint. Seize Carnarvon and threaten Exmouth with local forces. Get John all worked up while you transition over to the offensive in Burma, making sure to feint in NOPAC just as winter begins and ends. Be-Devil him in Burma for months then get Essexes and, assuming he never re-takes the Gilberts, start the Death Star tour of Asia there while the Commonwealth takes the opportunity of KB's absence to undercut Burma at Moulmein. Call it War Plan Tornado in honor of your recent escape from Mother Nature. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

John couldn't flip a turn last night and was out and about early today, so it's a planning day for me.  The Allies have units prepping for "down the road" in each theater.  In this post, I want to focus primarily on NoPac, but here's a general overview:
 
Burma Theater:  Big armies prepping for Toungoo and Rangoon, with one UK division prepping for Moulmein.
Western Oz:  Several units prepping for Exmouth one one Aussie division prepping for Broome (though I'll likely change that).
Coral Sea:  Large number of Allied units prepping for Milne Bay and adjacent islands; smaller but growing army prepping for Noumea.
CenPac:  Reinforcing units prepping for Gilberts with some units prepping for Baker Island.
NoPac: The Allies intend to invade the Aluetians in a major way.  I think John is focusing on the  Adak to Umnak line, so the Allies are focusing further west - the isles from Adak to Attu.  Following his campaign to recover the Gilberts (which I think will succeed), John is likely to vector his carriers to Oz or possibly the Bay of Bengal.  I'd like to strike the Aluetians while the KB is far away.  Not sure I can be ready that quickly.  Not sure I even want to be ready that quickly (the best time to be ready to invade would be in a month or six weeks, but the optimal time from my perspective would probably be October in order to have the reassurance of winter weather on the horizon).  Here's what I have ready and what I need:
 
Adak: 35k stacking; 828 AV; infantry, combat engineers, AA, tnaks, arty, base forces.  Needs: Engineers and base forces.  Questions:  Is this a realistic target?  Better to divide troops amongs other bases?
Amchitka:  20k; 314 AV; infantry.  Needs:  Engineers, base forces, more AV and support if I really want this.
Kiska:  20k; 115 AV.  Probably lightly defended.  Needs:  Engineers, base forces.
Ulak Island:  10k; 69 AV, infantry, paratroops.  Needs: Engineers, small base force.
Attu:  35k; 768 AV, HQ, AA, infantry, combat engineers, AA, arty, base forces, engineers, CD.  Needs:  more base forces.
Shemya:  10k; nothing yet.  Needs: small infantry, engineers, small base force.
Agatta:  35k; nothing yet.  Needs:  infantry, engineers, base force.
Buldin:  35k; nothing yet.  Needs:  infantry, engineers, base force.

[Cribtop]

I would ask what the strategic purpose of the NOPAC move is. If you intend to move on the Kuriles later on, then go kitchen sink. If it's an offensive of opportunity or a big feint, what is it feinting for? Assuming the latter is your intention, I like grabbing the less defended western bases, and ignoring anything defended in strength. Note that NOPAC is a great feint for a Moulmein invasion, not such a great feint for a move in CENPAC (but you know that as well as I do).

Re Burma, don't forget that the base just East of Rangoon on the map is a port. A sneaky amphib site if conditions are right.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

As for NW Oz, turn it into a big feint. Seize Carnarvon and threaten Exmouth with local forces. Get John all worked up while you transition over to the offensive in Burma, making sure to feint in NOPAC just as winter begins and ends. Be-Devil him in Burma for months then get Essexes and, assuming he never re-takes the Gilberts, start the Death Star tour of Asia there while the Commonwealth takes the opportunity of KB's absence to undercut Burma at Moulmein. Call it War Plan Tornado in honor of your recent escape from Mother Nature. [:D]

Meh. A late 1944/early 1945 tour de force by the Allied player is status quo. It's expected. It's (yawn) conventional. Sure, you'll win the war in 1945 (maybe even before September!!!! [8|]), but who cares? That will just prove to me that you didn't get 'auto-vicced', small consolation for the Allied player.

What would impress me would be a slashing or novel Allied offensive to capture an underrepresented piece of real estate. The fact that this would be against a naval OOB wholly favoring the Japanese 'side' of the equation would be doubly impressive.

Grind 'em up offensives in 1944-1945 are pretty average, IMO. This is a great time for the Allied player to show his strategic acumen, his unconventional thought and abilities. Time for daring sweeps and clever feints. Canoerebel is capable of doing this sort of thing. His festung Iwo Jima landings in 1943 (versus John) made an impression not soon forgotten on my gaming mind. I'd like to see Canoerebel's modern version of that, akin to GreyJoy's Hokkaido 1944 landings. A Formosa coup de main in 1943? Now that's whay I'm talkin' about.

[Crackaces]

A Formosa coup de main in 1943

That would be most amazing in my perception .. I have gotten close before the game ended in Feb 1944 . but I had a July 1944 timeframe .. Doing it say December 1943 would be quite the trick in my book [8D]