8MP Team Game - The Axis team

[Crackaces]

Now it is a matter of clearing the Volga and moving elements of the 1st Army in place to meet with elements of the 2&3 Panzer Armies

[Crackaces]

Now Elements with MP's of 2nd and 3rd Panzer Armies fill in to make a bridgehead. One thing this plan depended on is that units in the Kessel will lack the MP's to move and attack. It is possible that unknown Soviet units to the East of the hexes flipped could attack; however, it is very doubtful that units in the Kessel will have the MP's.

[Crackaces]

This screenshot has been posted before but it shows without any clutter how (later we learned) 1.75 M Soviets are now isolated. That will mean that turn 65 will be focused on opening a supply route while smothering the Panzers. Maybe slowing them down hoping for turn 70.

[Beria]

I feel very sorry for the pilots on both sides of this war!!!

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Beria

I feel very sorry for the pilots on both sides of this war!!!

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

[Bear1888]

can you enable the ZOC so we can better see the frontline? and 630 luftwaffe loses in one turn? holy moly. if that goes on, soon the only flying units of the luftwaffe will be the racing pigeon units.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Bear1888

can you enable the ZOC so we can better see the frontline? and 630 luftwaffe loses in one turn? holy moly. if that goes on, soon the only flying units of the luftwaffe will be the racing pigeon units.

I think this is an excellent concept to cover. If I could use an analogy. In the US Civil War during 1864 - 1865 General Grant used a strategy of simple attrition. The North had more men, resources, and better logistics to deploy these resources. The South was hurting badly at this point. One battle of note is Cold Harbor. This battle was a disaster from a tactical aspect; however, the numerator of the equation reduced proportionally worse than the denominator and Grant advanced to Petersburg. Let us explore this .. Side A has 100,000 Side B has 200,000. This is exactly 1:2. Now we fight a battle. Side A loses 20,000 leaving 80,000. Side B losses 30,000 a tactically proportionate disaster. However 80,000 / 170,000 is 0.47%. Side A is losing the proportional battle.

So you are right, "a disaster" looking at the one turn in its own cocoon. However, spreadsheets look at a much bigger picture including the overall ability for the Soviets to replace losses vs. the Germans. One more point. In the above example, I described Grant's advance on Petersburg. IN the 8MP game on turn 65 we are surrounding what we know now as 1.75M Soviets. This is well worth short term losses to gain a much more overall strategic position.

So the picture below does not include Soviet turn 65 losses as the game ended in their turn. But the Germans can feel pretty confident that the LW will dominate in 1943. One thing I want to point out here. Much like the batter being blamed for striking out in the last of the 9th inning, or the star striker missing a game tying goal at the 90th minute and extra time .. this picture started game turn 1 and progressed until about game turn 63. M60 got a very bad situation and made the best of it. He guessed wrong on turn 64 and does not have the resources to reverse course.

[Crackaces]

The picture below shows the total Soviet aircraft situation. The mud turns would provide some relief - but to both sides. The Germans will be in position to bomb factories in the Urals.

[Crackaces]

The diagram below shows what M60 opened after the Logistics phase. Very simply there is nothing East of the Kessel to hold the Panzer hordes back. There are the movement points to smother the Panzers, but not enough to push the bridgehead back over the Volga. It is very clear that the pocket could be broken, but turn 66 would see another stronger pocket and the imminent collapse of the Soviet Army. The Germans would have 3 more turns to clear Kuby and Saratov, while setting up bombing runs on the Urals. T

[Beria]

That is the Mother of all pockets!

[Crackaces]

The map below shows in detail the MP's of the units nearest to the neck of the Kessel. There are certainly enough MP's to open the pocket, and smother the Panzers. One attack might be possible; although, the initial CV will be less than 2:1 before the fireworks start. The real problem is that 18th Army will replace 4th Panzer Army positions, and another Panzer Army will be joining in to seal the Kessel next turn.

[Crackaces]

In the south you see the Soviet's perspective. The Soviets are poised to lose another 10,000 after 50% goes back into manpower, but worst of all 4 precious units. The Soviets are cut off from railing any more units in this area. (The rails from Stalingrad East and North are cut off). Those Axis cavalry units will join 4 more cavalry units just off screen to the North and cut supply to this whole area on turn 66.

The German air and SU support would make breaking this pocket nearly impossible. The situation would be to salvage and hope for a mud turn.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

This looks familiar to me from the team game - every time the number of aircraft gets down to the black line the Soviet air force collapsed and disappeared from the map. Only when all were in reserve did numbers go up again. It looks like they are about to run out of fighters again. They only just have enough to fill the airgroups they have assuming they created no new ones and there are no inefficiencies in replacements. Below that and you get in the same air spiral of death they had in 1941.

[Telemecus]

If they had not lost over 2000 fighters from strategic bombing you can see how much better off they would be now. There would be a big margin over that black line.

Axis losses for this turn have been very bad - but the pools built up over the last 64 turns means they will last longer than the Soviets can.

[Bear1888]

Thank you for your analogy about the civil war. Indeed. Lee won at cold harbor but it was just a Pyrrhic victory because Grant simply refused to retreat over the Potomac like many former commanders and stayed in the south.

If this pocket holds, it will put the German pocket of Kiev in September 41 into the shame. what an intense game.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Bear1888
If this pocket holds, it will put the German pocket of Kiev in September 41 into the shame. what an intense game.

I know when I first saw this I did wonder if it was as bad as some think. The Kessel is wide open in the North East and so can be broken just by walking. There are guards units at Penza that could be moved down to hold the Kessel open next turn, or even push back the few units from centre that crossed the Volga. Many of the units in the North and East can walk out and those in the south and west I thought could walk to the centre of it far from the front and be disbanded. I am not saying this is good news, it would be an Axis win in 1942 and probably a running retreat north of Kuybyshev until mud arrives in a few turns. But the manpower would be preserved and after the winter the Soviet army would be bigger and better again in 1943.

EwaldvonKleist updated me on the disband rules. They not only need to be far from Axis units but need more than enough MPs to arrive at working rail. As the nearest working rail is north east of Saratov there will be few that have that, and those that do will not need to be disbanded anyway. And I understand it from Crackaces some motorised units only have small single digit movement points. So OK it is worse than I thought. But I guess still more than half of that Kessel would escape encirclement?

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Bear1888
If this pocket holds, it will put the German pocket of Kiev in September 41 into the shame. what an intense game.

I know when I first saw this I did wonder if it was as bad as some think. The Kessel is wide open in the North East and so can be broken just by walking. There are guards units at Penza that could be moved down to hold the Kessel open next turn, or even push back the few units from centre that crossed the Volga. Many of the units in the North and East can walk out and those in the south and west I thought could walk to the centre of it far from the front and be disbanded. I am not saying this is good news, it would be an Axis win in 1942 and probably a running retreat north of Kuybyshev until mud arrives in a few turns. But the manpower would be preserved and after the winter the Soviet army would be bigger and better again in 1943.

EwaldvonKleist updated me on the disband rules. They not only need to be far from Axis units but need more than enough MPs to arrive at working rail. As the nearest working rail is north east of Saratov there will be few that have that, and those that do will not need to be disbanded anyway. And I understand it from Crackaces some motorised units only have small single digit movement points. So OK it is worse than I thought. But I guess still more than half of that Kessel would escape encirclement?

There is 1.75 million in the Kessel. Just roughly trying a scenario where the Soviets in I got 1 million snared (500,000) returned to the pool. The big problem is units or stuff to occupy space. Worse .. stuff that can force deliberate attacks. The Panzers can hasty isolation on turn 66.. with Soviet units not putting up a good fight.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Turn 65 at STAVKA

OK - whodunit?

[Zorch]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Turn 65 at STAVKA

OK - whodunit?

The Good, the Bad, and the One with the Unloaded Gun.

[Rokko]

Long time reader/lurker here, would you mind uploading the final savegame? I would like to look a the final dispositions.