The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[JohnDillworth]

John brought a lot of hardware. I think he was expecting more fish in that barrel.

[Canoerebel]

John had it well set up, with subs serving as the anvil and KB serving as the hammer. His use of flank speed allowed him to catch up to the tail end of the Allied merchant TFs, inflicting minor damage on the Allied fleet.

The concept of interdicting Allied supply is a good one. To make this scheme work, he should have positioned his Mini KB (the one now north of Manado) in the Timor region. It should have used one day of flank speed to near Saumlaki at the same time KB was using flank speed to pounce through the Torres Strait. This would have caught many more merchantmen. But even that wouldn't have meant anything more than a satisfying punch and a few more victory points.

[BillBrown]

Why bomb resource centers? Doesn't Nagasaki have aircraft factories to bomb? In the AARs I have seen, Japan has millions of resources in the HI by this time.

[Canoerebel]

Points are more important than anything else at this point of the game. Trying to starve Japan of anything - resources, fuel, aircraft, whatever - is an indirect and uncertain means of strangulation.

I might be able to deny John something like Franks at some point far in the future. But I think smaller, more precise factories (aircraft factories) are harder to hit than more general targets, like Manpower and Resources. At this point, the fastest and most efficient way to victory is to score points by strategic bombing as quickly as possible. Resources seems to be the most efficient subcategory within the Strategic Bombing category.

[Canoerebel]

Just got the turn in from John, with this email comment: "Wow.  Bet you weren’t sure on orders for this turn.  COOL!"

I'm not sure what he means. The turn was pretty straightforward and didn't involve a lot of uncertainty. Time to run the turn and see what happened.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Points are more important than anything else at this point of the game. Trying to starve Japan of anything - resources, fuel, aircraft, whatever - is an indirect and uncertain means of strangulation.

I might be able to deny John something like Franks at some point far in the future. But I think smaller, more precise factories (aircraft factories) are harder to hit than more general targets, like Manpower and Resources. At this point, the fastest and most efficient way to victory is to score points by strategic bombing as quickly as possible. Resources seems to be the most efficient subcategory within the Strategic Bombing category.

There is a finite amount of strategic points to score from weakly defended bases in HI. Would those be enough for victory? If you of course factor in other point sources like LCUS and bases in (Indo)China.

[Canoerebel]

There should be sufficient points in the Home Islands, especially if land-based fighters, carrier air, and naval bombardments factor into the equation. There's no doubt that strategic bombing has to fund most of the victory points needed to get to 2:1.

If John has new doctrine or new generation aircraft that can really blunt strategic bombing, the next most efficient ways to score points are destroying enemy LCUs, taking bases, and sinking ships in mass quantities (meaning, Death Star on the prowl and hitting hard).

All of those will factor in, but strategic bombing needs to be the bell cow.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There should be sufficient points in the Home Islands, especially if land-based fighters, carrier air, and naval bombardments factor into the equation. There's no doubt that strategic bombing has to fund most of the victory points needed to get to 2:1.

If John has new doctrine or new generation aircraft that can really blunt strategic bombing, the next most efficient ways to score points are destroying enemy LCUs, taking bases, and sinking ships in mass quantities (meaning, Death Star on the prowl and hitting hard).

All of those will factor in, but strategic bombing needs to be the bell cow.

I gave up over 60,000 vp in strategic losses...but Allies started in Feb, broke my fighter back by June, conquered western Honshu and all of Hokkaido lost to auto vic on Jan 1 1945.

I held Osaka and Kobe...just barely. I suffered daily bombardments for at least 6 straight months by around 10 battleships...not to mention heavy cruisers, light cruisers, destroyers and destroyer escorts. Every Allied plane that could carry a bomb hit me, and there seemed no daily slowdown due to supply shortage. 99% of all damage was done during day bombing.

How many VP do you need to reach 2-1?

[Canoerebel]

For two days, John has been flipping turns. That's always fun but the downside is that he'll tail off dramatically once whatever held his interest is finished.

It looks like the KB carrier raid is over....and things are really getting ugly for Japan in China. So he'll probably have a hard time ginning up enthusiasm for awhile. That's my guess anyhow.

I'll post tonight, but here's now things look:

1. Carrier Sweeps and strategic bombing mission vs. Nagasaki: The number suggest the fighters battled to a draw and the bombers did well; underneath the raw numbers, the Corsairs performed excellently, boding ill for Japan in the future. 30 B-24Js knocked out scored 40 Resource hits at 7k in daylight. Pretty good numbers. This is consistent with my generally optimistic views on the future of strategic bombing.

2. John committed another disastrous shock attack. 3rd Tank Div. booted a tank destroyer battalion yesterday, leaving on a small arty fragment in the hex; John chose to shock attack even though he knew USA divisions were inbound; well, they arrived just before today's shock attack, which gutted his division. Tomorrow, the Allied divisions will shock attack. This is a bad result on this Hangchow/Shanghai front, which John needs to hold as long as possible.

3. Japanese resistance in Indochina collapsed today. John is through here.

4. Changsha forts fall to three.

5. Enemy carriers are near Timor; no hits scored vs. Allied shipping today.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I gave up over 60,000 vp in strategic losses...but Allies started in Feb, broke my fighter back by June, conquered western Honshu and all of Hokkaido lost to auto vic on Jan 1 1945.

I held Osaka and Kobe...just barely. I suffered daily bombardments for at least 6 straight months by around 10 battleships...not to mention heavy cruisers, light cruisers, destroyers and destroyer escorts. Every Allied plane that could carry a bomb hit me, and there seemed no daily slowdown due to supply shortage. 99% of all damage was done during day bombing.

How many VP do you need to reach 2-1?

I went through this in a lot of detail a few days back, so the info is pretty fresh.

The score today: Allies 99.9k; Japan 68.2k.

So the Allies lead by 31.7k.

The Allies need roughly 37k to achieve auto victory (if the Japanese score holds steady at around 68k - unlikely, but let's use that for as a best case scenario benchmark).

The score was tied on August 2, 1944. So the Allies have take a 31.7k lead in a little more than four months - call it 130 days. That's roughly 244 points per day. At that rate, the Allies need 151 days to achieve auto victory. So, five months = end of May 1945.

But the Allied scoring pace is accelerating. Strategic bombing really didn't begin until mid September. And the collapse of the Japanese army in Indochina and China is accelerating the rate of LCU and Base points.

I expect the accelerated rate to continue. Supply has just come in to fully fund Allied strategic bombing; Death Star is no longer tethered to defense; and China should be a strong generator of LCU points for quite some time to come.

The wildcard is naval assets. One side or the other could score a lot of points quickly by winning a lopsided naval battle. So I need to watch that carefully.

I expect the war in the air to remain fairly tight for quite some time to come.

So, Strategic Bombing is the most efficient way to score. And given what's transpired since August 2 (and September 15), I think things are on schedule for a Spring '45 victory (or sooner).

[JeffroK]

John chose to shock attack even though he knew USA divisions were inbound; well, they arrived just before today's shock attack, which gutted his division.

After a couple of "coincidences" like this he has to think you are cheating [8D]

JIII, hit and run, dont hang around for Day 2

[paullus99]

It's in his nature to "kill" something. I'm sure he wanted to crow again that he'd killed more troops...instead, he's cost himself one of the last mobile assets he had.

[Canoerebel]

12/10/44

Death Star Raid Nagasaki: DS fighters sweep Nagasaki, clearing the air for Liberators from Ningpo. Not a stellar day but okay...and instructive.

[Canoerebel]

12/10/44

Death Star Fighters Sweep Nagasaki: Hellcats go in early, low, and at high cost; Corsair go in late and finish the deal.

[paullus99]

So, going to hit him again? Same spot or try something different?

[Canoerebel]

12/10/44

Fancy Pants: No more organized IJ resistance in Indochina. In China, good progress made today at Changsha, on the Kukong Front, and on the approaches to Hangchow. Lots of supply and reinforcements landing.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: paullus99
So, going to hit him again? Same spot or try something different?

I'm going to try the same place. That in itself may be unexpected. But my main reason is that I already have "eyes" on the mines at Nagasaki. Usually, that helps ships avoid them. A test bombardment TF to hit Nagasaki tonight. If that goes well, bigger TFs will go in tomorrow night.

[crsutton]

I forget, can you create landing craft at the American base just to the east of Changsha? If you can create them and then spring a naval river attack it might be fun.

[Lowpe]

What range for the bombardment?

I was going to talk about the air war, but feel you should probably not bombard and simply clear the trash ships instead of bombarding.

Or better yet, put together a convoy of PT boats with a ship with fuel, and make your way across to Nagasaki, ditch the fuel ship, and send the PT boats in to fight the trash. If you want to see carnage among Japanese MTBs....assuming those are MTBs.

[Canoerebel]

I'm pretty unfamiliar with the late air war and Japanese staying power. By default, I have to assume that John has a limitless supply of good pilots and good aircraft. That's not true, of course, but I simply don't have the experience to gauge whether the Japanese air force might be suffering in one respect or another. If I push my own air force too hard, thinking I have John on the ropes, I may take excessive losses. B-24Js and B-29s are particularly worrisome - limited numbers, limited pools. So I want to push but not too hard.

Some of you have far more experience than I do. You may get frustrated by my ham-fistedness in handling things. But I think it's better that I try to handle this myself, trying to learn, rather than have the experienced Peanut Gallery try to ghost write this book.

I remain fairly optimistic about the strategic war, especially with KB (or half of it, anyway) so far away.