Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

Vettim, wow, thanks for this careful analysis.   But doesn't it take 2x points to achieve auto-victory in 1945?  I know it's 4x in '43 and 3x in '44, so I had assumed it was 2x in 1945.  I have been playing with that in mind, and since I am at 1.53 there is no practical way for me to get to 2x by the end of December.  Even if John didn't score another point, I'd still need 27,000 points to achieve auto-victory.  Shanghai only offers 2,700 (not 30,000+), so it won't be enough.
 
I wouldn't mind achieving auto-victory, but I don't believe it is in the cards in the foreseeable future.  The only thing that could change that is to destroy the KB at little or no loss to myself.  But I don't want to go KB hunting right now - I prefer to employ my carriers in tasks that I KNOW are productive rather than in a task that I could only HOPE might be productive.  I need my carriers to protect my amphibious ships operating on the Chinese coast.  The Allies have an amazing number of ships and troops on the China coast and at Formosa, and I can continue to invade to keep the Japs off balance, unless I let the KB slip in and wreak havoc.
 
I remain convinced that John will eventually have to commit the KB - it will either be that or see his Empire waste away without protection while his carriers (eventually) get hit in port.  I don't think he'll do that - I think he'll coordinate a massive carrier- and LBA-air strike sometime fairly soon.
 
If 2x is the auto-victory level in 1945, the Allies will achieve that eventually - perhaps as soon as February, but certainly no later than Spring (these estimates are based on the KB not getting shellacked; if it gets shellacked, the victory would move up considerably).
 
I believe the Allies can take Shanghai and cut off and then destroy several Jap armies in China.  While the massive army moves in China, and another works on Formosa, new amphibious operations will move on other Chinese cities or perhaps even into Korea.
 
The end of the war approaches.
 
 

[vettim89]

The game is a bit confusing on Victory Conditions in 1945. It says if the game ends in 1945 and the Allies have a 1.75 to 1 ratio or better it is a Decisive Victory. Then it further says the Allies need a 2 to 1 margin for Auto Victory in 1945. So how does the game end in 1945 without Autovictory. Is there a victory check on 14 August 1945? Or is it that if the Japanese palyer resigns in 1945? Odd verbage in the manual. I think I figured it out. It is the end date of the scenario. Big B 1.4 ends March 1946. If I understand this correctly you need a 2 to 1 to win in 1945 then. Shanghai will still put you really close. Don't forget, John loses points when you take one of his bases. I bet if you get Shanghai, you will be at 2 to 1.

[vettim89]

Screw Korea! Go for Okinawa. He can move his Manchuria Army into Korea. Okinawa may be heavily fortified but you have a whole lot of striking power. Just bully your way in and smash them

[Q-Ball]

Vettim is right; if you land in Korea, it will give the 8000 AV in Manchuria something to do. Troops in Korea count against that limit. Best to leave that alone.

[Canoerebel]

I didn't know that about Korea and the Manchuria garrison; thanks for giving me the heads up. 
 
That gives me something else to think about - sometime in mid-45, don't the Russians activate?  So, at some point it might be worthwhile to have the Russians and other Allied forces cooperate to do nasty things to the Japs.
 
Okay, assuming that Korea is out until at least mid-45, the Allied plan:
 
1) China - take Shanghai and try to pick off another coastal city or two with rapid-deployment amphbious operations.
 
2)  Formosa - methodically take out these three cities, which ought to take some time.
 
So what happens after I accomplish those objectives (assuming the KB is still around and the game is still ongoing)?  Okinawa is hugely defended as is Luzon.  To be honest, I'm not sure where I will go.  The DEI would be a possibility, as would some of the PI bases; but a return to Hokkaido might also be worth looking into.  Those bases have been reduced to rubble and the Allies will have total air supremacy.  But that's a ways off...

[anarchyintheuk]

Russians activate in 8/45, far as I know.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't know that about Korea and the Manchuria garrison; thanks for giving me the heads up. 

That gives me something else to think about - sometime in mid-45, don't the Russians activate?  So, at some point it might be worthwhile to have the Russians and other Allied forces cooperate to do nasty things to the Japs.

Okay, assuming that Korea is out until at least mid-45, the Allied plan:

1) China - take Shanghai and try to pick off another coastal city or two with rapid-deployment amphbious operations.

2)  Formosa - methodically take out these three cities, which ought to take some time.

So what happens after I accomplish those objectives (assuming the KB is still around and the game is still ongoing)?  Okinawa is hugely defended as is Luzon.  To be honest, I'm not sure where I will go.  The DEI would be a possibility, as would some of the PI bases; but a return to Hokkaido might also be worth looking into.  Those bases have been reduced to rubble and the Allies will have total air supremacy.  But that's a ways off...

If you want to go for it, land on Shikoku, the small island that has only Takamatsu and Hamamatsu on it. There are unlikely to be much in the way of land troops, because you have to pay PPs to move them from Honshu or Kyushu. I bet the garrison is smaller than Okinawa or Luzon. You can run supplies from Iwo/;Tori Shima. The difficulty obviously is the unlimited nearby airbases; but you can do it.

That would probably end the war.

Russia does activate in 8/45, and in mid-'45 the Japanese get a ton of new troops in Manchuria, something like 10 divisions.

[vettim89]

I think with the addition of points to Dan and the subtraction of points from John, Shanghai and Takao would give an autovictory

[Canoerebel]

12/11/44
 
Q-Ball: I had just traced my cursor over those two bases - both are held by about half the units John has on Okinawa.  Those bases are possibilities if the game lasts that long.
Vettim:  Shanghai and Takao give the Allies less than 3,000 points; I need at least 27,000 to win via auto-victory.

China:  The probing attacks north of Nanchang failed to achieve anything.  The Japs are pulling out of Wenchow, and that garrison will be able to make it to Shanghai before I can cut the road.  However, the Allies should still vastly outnumber the Japs and will be able to bomb Shanghai at will, so I remain confident in the success of this operation.  The Allies will also pick up Wenchow "on the cheap."  Today was another day of ground troops slowly advancing and Allied LBA working over Shanghai.  An Allied combat TF tangled with a huge fleet of AGs at Shanghai and sank every one of them.  Ningpo airfield went to level 2, so the Allied carriers will head back to Hong Kong to rest, refuel, re-equip, and await further orders.

Formosa:  Another probing attack dropped forts to four.  My guys are fatigued, though, so they'll have to rest a few days before renewing the attack.  The reinforcements at Hong Kong are ready to board ship, now, so soon I'll decide whether to commit them to Formosa, or to instead use them elsewhere (if the troops on hand are enough to take Takao).

India:  The Allies reclaimed Trivandrum but may lose Pangim.  It looks like the Japs will soon be relegated to lodgements at Bombay (which will remain in Allied hands), Pangim, and Bangalore.  The Allies will close on those bases, try to block the routes out, and then begin to squeeze.

SWPac:  The Japs appear to have one unit at Pago Pago; I'll begin recon from Johnston Island tomorrow.  If this one unit doesn't look too formidable, the Allies will invade.  This base is worth about 325 points to the Japs, so it's important.

[vettim89]

And I quote:

The basic VP and final VP numbers for each side are displayed for each base when the
mouse cursor is placed over a base (the basic VP number value is in parenthesis).

My misunderstanding. Thought the number on the screen was before the calculation not after

[paullus99]

So, what's sitting in Tokyo?

With the 10,000+ or so AV that you'll have leftover after the current bases fall - why not a direct attack at the heart of the beast?

[Canoerebel]

I assume you're joking?  20,000 AV fully prepped for Tokyo probably wouldn't be near enough.  Tokyo is an urban hex, and if there is one thing the Japs don't lack it's ground units.  John already has a stout army at Tokyo, with massive reinforcements a day or two away - the road network in Japan is good, so it's easy for the Jap player to shift units around.
 
I invaded Japan's southern island in my previous game.  I already held Formosa and half of Okinawa, had legions of troops, and it still became a long, difficult seige.  And that was without the urban-hex bonus.
 
I seriously doubt there would ever be an invasion of the main island (Honshu?) in my game.  I can't see the game lasting long enough where that would be my best available course of action.  By the time it was desireable and feasible, John should have long since already capitulated.

[Q-Ball]

Unless the Japs completely strip the Home Islands, there are piles of troops available for their defense, and plenty of rail to quickly move them to trouble spots. This applies to Honshu and Kyuhsu.

As I said before though, there is likely no combat units on Shikoku, unless the Japanese pay the PPs to move them. Hokkaido does get reinforcements, and it is possible to "walk" from Honshu, albeit slowly.

Look at the Japanese Reinforcement Queue; the IJA expands rapidly in 1944/45.

A landing on Tokyo would be nuts.

[Canoerebel]

12/12/44 and 12/13/44
 
China:  The race is on to see who can reach Shanghai quickly enough to control the city.  The Japs are getting a headstart because the Wenchow garrison has moved more quickly than are the Allied troops that landed at Ningpo.  Half of the Allied army is now a hex west of Ningpo.  One more hex and they will sit astride the road between Shanghai and Nanchang.  Then they will turn toward Shanghai and fight until they claim the city.  Shanghai is urban, and John will have a pretty strong force there, but I don't think he can hold it long as the Allied army is massive, the Allies rule the skies, and I should have a big headstart in preparation.  At Nanchang, tomorrow the Allies will try their first probing attack in several weeks.

Formosa:  The Allies will try to drop forts at Takao again tomorrow.

Japan:  A big raid on Toyama knocked down 39 Jap fighters at a cost of three P-47Ds and hammered resources.

India:  On the 13th, the Japs tried a deliberate attack at Bombay.  It came in at 0:1, adjusted AV of 265 to 4381, failed to touch the seven forts, and cost the Japs 4102/75 to 73/5.  John's army (three divisions and a tank division) is in trouble.  For three successive days, John's army at Pangim (an Army division and a tank division) has attack, dropping forts from nine to zero.  The defense consists of just two air bases and part of an Indian brigade transported in by air from Nagpur.  They've done a good job of bleeding the Japs.  Pangim ought to fall tomorrow, but the cordon around the Japs continues to tighten.

Allied Carriers:  The Allied carriers are on their way to Hong Kong to rest, refit, replenish sorties, and bring air squadrons back to full strength.  The carriers are in rather shabby condition - very low on fuel, high SYS damage, and most in need of upgrades as dated as mid-43.  There is no fuel anywhere close - the closest decent reserves are at Singapore and Iwo.  What I'll probably do is leave the most "needy" carriers at Hong Kong and put together a strong force that can escort some surplus empty transports back to Iwo Jima.  There these carriers can refuel and then escort new supply/fuel convoys back to Hong Kong.  The Allies now have such a large number of bases in coastal China, Pescadores (and soon, I believe, Takao) that carriers are no longer vital to the mission here.  However, I do have one further mission in the region I would like to use them for.

Jap Carriers:  Once again they have disappeared from my radar.  I haven't seen any of them since they returned to Java from India.  They've had time to go just about anywhere.  My main worry is always an ambush of the Allied carriers coordinated with Jap LBA, but no sign of that.  I'm also worried about raids on my supply lines.  Only a few TFs are currently at sea between Midway and Iwo.  As noted a week or so ago, this is the region that most worries me and was most vulnerable.  But I have since then held all ships at Iwo or Midway, respectively, as they arrived in port.  I'm not as concerned about the lanes between West Coast and Hawaii, and between Aden and Singapore, because shipping is much more dispersed.  Any raid there would get a handful of ships, but probably no more as the warning would be raised and everyone would scatter.

Points:  (A) 88,744 (J) 57,492; Ratio:  1.54 to 1; Strategic Points:  17,762.

[Canoerebel]

12/14/44 and 12/15/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The American amphibious force took Takao on 12/15.  The Japanese defenders had mostly withdrawn over the preceding two days, so the final attack was fairly anti-climatic.  This gives the Allies a level six airfield that can be built to nine (I think).  Two base forces able to handle 120 aircraft move here tomorrow (via air transport from China).  The facilities will need some work before building commences, but I've already transferred in a new P-51D squadron that arrived at Karachi just the day before (man, these things have legs - it flew Karachi to Rangoon to Takao in just over a day).  Most of the Allied troops at Takao will remain there and begin prepping for the next base.  Several divisions at Iwo and Midway are prepping for the northernmost base.
 
Operation Uranus:  The Chinese reinforcements at Hong Kong that had been prepping for Takao are now prepping for new and sexy targets.   They are the core of Operation Milky Way (see next entry).  The massive Allied army continues to land at Ningpo and move inland; however, the going is relatively slow, so it's going to be four or five days before the Allies can really make noise to threaten Shanghai.
 
Operation Milky Way:  As soon as the Allies finish landing reinforcements at Ningpo (an operation nearly complete now), another amphibious operation will occur.  This will be Operation Milky Way and will take lightly held bases much further north on the Chinese coast, thus threatening to encircle most of the Jap army in China.
 
Japan:  Successful "half-raid" on Gumma on the 14th featuring the usual fighter sweep plus the Toyahara 4EB, but not the Shikuka B-29s.  The Japs lost 68 fighters to 8 for the Allies.  Another fighter sweep is scheduled tomorrow, with the B-29s to join this time.  Three more B-29 groups arrived on the West Coast on the 15th and are heading the big new bases on the China coast (at present, only Hong Kong has reached level seven, but Swatow, Amoy, Foochow, and Takao will follow in the not-to-distant future).  Two P-51D squadrons will also servie in the strategic bombing campaing.
 
India:  The Japs took Pangim, but Allied troops are beginning to gather in strength along the eastern edge of the Jap perimeter, so that eventually the Japs will be cornered at Bombay, Pangim, Bangalore, and Hyderabad.
 
Allied Carriers:  Most Allied carriers will be in port at Hong Kong tomorrow.  The notable exception is an 8-CVE carrier force escorting some transports to Ningpo.  There are also some American carriers at Midway awaiting an "all clear" before heading to Iwo.
 
KB:  There was an odd sighting of a Jap CV at Takao on the 14th; it had to be a phantom sighting (though usually CV reports are the most reliable of any ships sightings in WitP).  Nothing came of it on the 15th.  No sign of the KB.
 
Points:  (A) 89,477 (J) 57,795; Ratio:  1.54 to 1; Strategic Points:  17,780
 
 
 
 
 

[vettim89]

If I may suggest, once you get Takao repaired and built up, move your B-29's Down there. You should have better luck with the weather

[Canoerebel]

Yes, as soon as Takao is level seven it'll get one B-29 group.  I'd send more, but I also want B-25s, B-24s and PBY Liberators there to handle convoy interdiciton.  As soon as I get another big base force there, Takao can handle at least two B-29 groups and perhaps three.

[Canoerebel]

12/16/44 to 12/18/44
 
China:  The Allied army has moved inland from Ningpo and is beginning to arrive in force on the road between Shanghai and Nanchang.  While this is going on there is another big Allied army beseiging Nanchang, and smaller armies in the Singyang area.  Also, the Allies continue to build up the airbases and will soon be able to base B-29s at Foochow, just a short flight south of Japan.  What I don't think John realizes is that yet another Allied amphibious operation is organizing. Troops - perhaps 1,500 to 2,000 AV total - are gathering at Hong Kong.  Within a week, these force will weigh anchor and head still further north, leapfrogging past Shanghai to what looks like a very lightly defended NE China coast.  If this succeeds, and I'm nearly positive it will, all of Jap-held China is in mortal danger.  I want to see what happens!
 
Allied carriers:  The carrier TFs docked at Hong Kong and now most of the DDs and alot of other ships have elevated SYS damage due to upgrades.  My carriers and combat ships are also low on fuel.  Yesterday, a stout carrier force (six CV/CVL TFs and one CVE TF) left Hong Kong to escort some empty transports back to Iwo Jima.  At Iwo, the carriers will refuel and escort back to Hong Kong replenishment, fuel, supply, and reinforcement TFs.
 
KB:  The KB showed up in the sea lanes between Midway and Iwo on the 16th.  I thought this was a possibility and therefore had all ships stay in port once they arrived at Iwo or Midway; nevertheless, there were three straggling TFs heading into Iwo when the Japs showed up.  The KB launched against two of them and got perhaps ten AKs.  That was it and I think the KB has returned to Marcus.
 
India:  The Allies should reclaim Mangalore tomorrow and will deliberate attack at Bangalore.  I think the cordon is tightening around the Jap troops so that they won't be able to "rampage" any longer - they'll be stuck in the corner of India where they are now and the Allies will methodically tighten the cordon until the Japs are trapped in one or two places.
 
Japan:  Several sweeps (ando one raid) at Gumma did good work.  Tomorrow the Allies will hit resources and the Frank factory at Fukuoka (assuming the raid comes off as ordered).
 
 

[Canoerebel]

12/19/44 and 12/20/44
 
Troops and assets from both sides have been getting to new positions and I think things are about to heat up again...

China:  Most of the Allied army has reached the Nanchang/Shanghai road and will begin moving toward Hangchow tomorrow.  The AV will be nearly 5,000, but I'm not sure what I'll be facing.  John was able to pull his troops out of Wenchow, so the Hangchow/Shanghai defenses could be strong.  But the Allies will win here eventually because they'll devote all their air power and sea power until they do.  50th Indian paratroops, the Allies' "star unit" of the game, took an unoccupied Wenchow.  Allied LBA in China is focusing on Nanchang, Hangchow, and Shanghai.  Operation Milky Way troops are mostly loaded at Hong Kong now and this force will be ready to get underway tomorrow or the following day (I'm awaiting some fuel to replenish the carriers that will provide cover).

Formosa:  The level 6 airbase now holds a P-51D squadron and about 40 PBY Liberators.

American carriers:  The TF heading to Iwo Jima passed by Formosa yesterday and should arrive in three or four days.

KB:  No sign of it since it stopped by Marcus after the short raid north of Iwo (or at least I think that's where they went; a bunch of DDs ran through a sub-layed minefield at Marcus the day after the raid, so I feel sure that's where the KB went).  John is reconning Midway, Iwo, Wake, Eniwetok, and Ponape.  All of these but Ponape have good fighter compliments plus fairly stout combat TFs.

India:  18th UK Division arrived at Poona, hopefully blocking the Jap army at Bombay, although there is a road leading north, but that would separate the Bombay troops from the rest of the Jap army.  IE, I'm still trying to corral the Japs.

Points:  (A) 90,152 (J) 57,911; Ratio: 1.55 to 1; Strategic Points:  17,998

[tocaff]

A 2:1 is an all but done deal from the looks of things, which is what you need to end the game on an AV in '45 or later.  I think that another large setback or 2 and John will throw in the towel as even a KB on the loose isn't going to change things.