MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[composer99]

Per the rules:
1- All on-map Reserve and MIL units (and all such units on the production track) are moved to the reserve pool when an active country becomes neutral.
2- All Reserve and MIL units in the force pools are removed from play

If the neutral major power once again becomes active, the units in the reserves are placed face-down on the map whenever the power calls out its reserves, and the units removed from play are returned to the force pools.

Edit: Edited after checking the rules.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Per the rules:
1- All on-map Reserve and MIL units (and all such units on the production track) are moved to the reserve pool when an active country becomes neutral.
2- All Reserve and MIL units in the force pools are removed from play

If the neutral major power once again becomes active, the units in the reserves are placed face-down on the map whenever the power calls out its reserves, and the units removed from play are returned to the force pools.

Edit: Edited after checking the rules.

We had a discussion about this after the possibility came up in this AAR, and we concluded that non-Reserve MIL are placed in the "Future Force Pool" until the nation goes to war again, regardless of where they are (on-map, production, etc). I'll recheck the rules, because I may be missing something somewhere. There are numberous different places in the rules that state information about reserves.

As a side-note, if China doesn't surrender, it might be in the best interest of the Axis for both Italy and Germany to DOW China ASAP. That adds 10-12 chits to the Entry Pool for Ge/It. The immediate result would be about a 10% rise in the chance of a successful DOW, but the only way the USA can improve those chances is to increase Tension. Yeah, it's a cheap trick, but this is war, my friends. And, if Japan tries to do something similar with DOWs on the USSR, CW, and France on the same impulse (not necessarily at the same time the EuroAxis does this), it would do the same thing to the USA with the Ja Entry Pool.

Okay, now I'll go check the rules on reserves, et al.

[composer99]

If the Germans are ready to go in March/April (except for the Caucasus front) then they should probably start the war and let the Japanese catch up next turn. It's not like the USSR is going to pile a big garrison in the Far East (yet another reminder, IMO, of how the USSR is much too weak in WiF).

As far as China goes, giving the US a boost from 40% to 50% chance of declaring war is probably not worth it (although I believe the die roll modifier also goes from -1 for Japanese units in an unconquered China to -2 for China being conquered) for a surrender. IMO I would wait till next turn when the US passes the oil embargo.

The top priority options for the US to pass in March/April are Resources to USSR and Oil Embargo. Lendlease to USSR is top priority in May/June.

US/CW need to crank out convoys to bring lendlease to USSR. Assuming factories can't get to Murmansk (they can rail to Archangel, too), the Allies can ship in 3 bp, 1 to Murmansk and 2 to Archangel, while the latter port is not frozen.

[composer99]

Checked the rules again (section 4.1.2). Naturally I missed something:

Neutral major powers can’t have MIL units. When you go to war, add
your MIL units to your force pools. Reserve MIL units would be
placed on the map instead (see 9.6).
If at the end of any peace step your major power is neutral, remove its
MIL units from the game until you are next at war with a major power
(see 13.7.3).

[Red Prince]

Here is all the information I found that might relate (all taken from the Rules as Coded):
-----
Note: Underlined text is what I see as pertinent to the discussion.

4.1.2 Special additions
Neutral major powers can’t have MIL units. When you go to war, add your MIL units to your force pools.
Reserve MIL units would be placed on the map instead (see 9.6). If at the end of any peace step your major power is
neutral, remove its MIL units from the game until you are next at war with a major power (see 13.7.3).

9.6 Calling out the reserves
...
When the USSR comes to peace with Germany, move any reserve units with a “Germany” reserve status that
are either on the map or in the production pool to the reserve pool. Remove from the game all such reserve units in
the force pools.
When you come to peace with every major power (i.e. you are neutral again), move all your reserve units that
are either on the map or in the production pool to the reserve pool. Remove all reserve units in your force pools from
the game.

13.7.3 Mutual peace
If you are now a neutral major power, remove any MIL units designated Reserve you have on the map or in
the production pool and place them in the reserve pool. [Correction. Any other of your MIL units that are on the
map are placed in the reserve pool and are treated hereafter as regular (i.e., designated) reserve units - 2008 WIF
Annual.] Remove all your remaining MIL units from the game until you are next at war (see 4.1.2).

So, it looks like you are right and I'll have to file a "Bug Fix Confirmations" correction report. Thanks for the hlep.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Germans are ready to go in March/April (except for the Caucasus front) then they should probably start the war and let the Japanese catch up next turn. It's not like the USSR is going to pile a big garrison in the Far East (yet another reminder, IMO, of how the USSR is much too weak in WiF).

As far as China goes, giving the US a boost from 40% to 50% chance of declaring war is probably not worth it (although I believe the die roll modifier also goes from -1 for Japanese units in an unconquered China to -2 for China being conquered) for a surrender. IMO I would wait till next turn when the US passes the oil embargo.

A look at the "It's War Chart" seems to agree with this, but there are occassions when things on the charts disagree with things in the rules. I'll have to check on this one, too.

Cheap as it is, what do you think of my idea of having Italy and Germany DOW China just to pour chits into the Ge/It Entry Pool? I call it cheap, but it could be considered a "Diplomatic" tactic designed to annoy the USA government, but not necessarily the citizenry . . . "Hey, the Chinese are toast anyway, so why should I care if a few more nations want a piece of the action?" It' 1941 now, and the average chit is up to a hair short of 2.6 . . . so adding 10-12 chits should add between 26 and 31 total chit value to the Ge/It Entry Pool . . . which would create the situation:

Ge/It total value: 42-47
Ja total value: 18

Ge/It Entry: 72-80
Ge/It Tension: 22
Chance of DOW: 30% (until Tension reaches 24 (50%)
Ja Entry: 48-51
Ja Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 70%-80%

But, if Japan is in position to DOW both France and the CW, that should add about 6 chits with a value of roughly 16, plus 2 extra chits per turn.

Ge/It total value: 42-47
Ja total value: 34

Ge/It Entry: 80-88
Ge/It Tension: 22
Chance of DOW: 30% (until Tension reaches 24 for 50%)
Ja Entry: 72-75
Ja Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 50% (until Tension reaches 24 for 70%)

The reason I am considering this, is that it might buy an extra turn or two for the Japanese vs. the USA. Each of the Tension Pools has only 3 chits. A failed DOW removes one of them. As it stands, the USA is likely to have something between a 60% and 70% chance to DOW Japan some time this turn, assuming the Axis takes any aggressive action. Would it not be better to force that down and hope that the Tension Rolls don't produce the desired results for the US?

The top priority options for the US to pass in March/April are Resources to USSR and Oil Embargo. Lendlease to USSR is top priority in May/June.

US/CW need to crank out convoys to bring lendlease to USSR. Assuming factories can't get to Murmansk (they can rail to Archangel, too), the Allies can ship in 3 bp, 1 to Murmansk and 2 to Archangel, while the latter port is not frozen.

The USA actually already has the Convoys to set this up. Not that it will prevent them from building more convoys, but it shouldn't be difficult to get done.

[Red Prince]

13.7.6 Surrender
...
Treat the surrender of a home country as a complete conquest (see 13.7.1) of the major power if it doesn’t
control any aligned minors. Otherwise it is incompletely conquered. [Clarification. Halve the US Entry effect of the
conquest of a country that surrenders - 2008 WIF Annaul.]

9.4 US Entry
When attempting to declare war on Japan:
-2 if China has been conquered.
-1 if China hasn’t been conquered but a Japanese unit is in China.
+2 if the US fleet is not in Pearl Harbor (see 13.3.2, entry option 26).

I don't know if this requires a clarification or not. If the US Entry effect is halved, does that mean China is only "half-conquered" when it surrenders? I doubt it. Conquered is conquered in my book.

[Red Prince]

Just a reminder of where things currently stand:

Ge/It Entry: 33
Ge/It Tension: 23
Chance of DOW: 20%
Japan Entry: 35
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 40%

If the Germans DOW the USSR this turn there is an 80% chance of adding a chit value of 2.6 to the Ge/It Entry Pool. The USA has been lucky so far with chits, so let's say it's a '3' that gets added. That results in:

Ge/It Entry: 38
Ge/It Tension: 23
Chance of DOW: 30%
Japan Entry: 37
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 40%

Add in a Chinese surrender now, that adds 1.7 chits (call it 2) for about a total value of 5, creating:

Ge/It Entry: 40
Ge/It Tension: 23
Chance of DOW: 40%
Japan Entry: 44
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 70%

I don't think the USA could resist a 70% chance to DOW the Japanese during M/A '40, do you? Particularly if it can force about half the Japanese units off the map until they DOW someone else or get DOWed, at which point those units come back improperly positioned and disorganized.

[composer99]

I don't have access to RAC, but RAW 13.7.6 Surrender says:

During any peace step, you can surrender a home country of a major power that controls less than half the printed factory stacks in the home country. You can surrender a home country with no printed factories if there is an enemy land unit there.
Treat the surrender of a home country as a complete conquest (see 13.7.1) of the major power if it doesn’t control any aligned minors. Otherwise it is incompletely conquered.

IMO US gets the die roll modifier for conquered China whether the Japanese finished the job or the Chinese surrendered. Of course whether or not we see that in this game depends on whether China is conquered/surrenders or not.

[composer99]

In the spirit of this still being part of the beta test, I suggest that the Chinese surrender and we see what happens with regards to the US DoW die roll modifier (and maybe ask ADG for a clarification while we're at it).

[Red Prince]

Of course, things could backfire for the USA. Let's take the last scenario:

Ge/It Entry: 40
Ge/It Tension: 23
Chance of DOW: 40%
Japan Entry: 44
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 70%

Now, this is a result of Chinese surrender at the end of J/F '41. The Allies win the initiative and take the first impulse. The USA, anticipating something nice, sends the MAR in Pago Pago somewhere useful with a small escort. Germany DOWs the USSR on the 2nd impulse, creating the above numbers.

Gleefully, the USA DOWs Japan . . . and rolls a '9' which makes the USA player scream like a banshee. Time to remove a chit from each Ja pool . . . and the rolls are bad, taking away the lowest chit from Entry (0) and the highest chit from Tension (5). Now the situations is:

Ge/It Entry: 40
Ge/It Tension: 16
Chance of DOW: 30%
Japan Entry: 44
Japan Tension: 12
Chance of DOW: 50%

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

In the spirit of this still being part of the beta test, I suggest that the Chinese surrender and we see what happens with regards to the US DoW die roll modifier (and maybe ask ADG for a clarification while we're at it).

I'm pretty sure we've run this test already, and the modifier is -2, but I can run it again as a test to be sure. Then we can talk more accurately about the possibilities.
-----
Edit: Give me about 15 minutes and I'll have the answer for you.

[WIF_Killzone]

This USA DOW talk aginst Japan has me thinking, if you are given the opportunity for USA to declare war on Japan first, can you position USA forces (plan and position for it now?) for a preemptive naval strike against some of the japan fleet? Would like to see the look on Yamomoto's face.

[Red Prince]

I ran the Surrender test, and -2 is the modifier applied in MWiF:

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: WIF_Killzone

This USA DOW talk aginst Japan has me thinking, if you are given the opportunity for USA to declare war on Japan first, can you position USA forces (plan and position for it now?) for a preemptive naval strike against some of the japan fleet? Would like to see the look on Yamomoto's face.

Well, this isn't as easy done than said. In preparation for war with the CW, much of the CV fleet has moved to Canton, which is out of range of everyone except the "holding" fleet at Honolulu. I can pre-position that fleet for a strike on Tokyo or Canton and replace at least part of it with ships from San Diego, but if I don't have 10 BB and 2 CV in Honolulu, I get a +2 to the DOW die roll, which means a greater chance of failure. Additionally, the fleet might do some damage, but it would die extremely quickly after it did that.

The Japanese, fully expecting to have the USA make the DOW rather than the other way around, has held back from the forward positions that might make this a viable option. Even the SUB fleet at Pago Pago is too short-ranged to be a serious threat to the Japanese convoy lines just yet. The sole purpose of a DOW would be to get 10 extra BP per turn and to scare Japan. It also improves the odds of a DOW on the EuroAxis by 10% if the USA is already at war with Japan.

[composer99]

I may have mentioned upthread that US naval forces can base in the Philippines from the start of the game (e.g. US subs or convoy raiders in place) but I'm not sure if it had any traction. [:)]

Otherwise it's hard for the US to actually do anything during a surprise impulse vs Japan. Can't leave non-convoy naval units at sea between turns so no start-of-turn port strikes; can only move 1 unit per naval move while neutral so no setting up an unexpected surprise impulse invasion.

If the US has AMPH or Marines + TRS in Honolulu it can certainly look at surprise impulse invasions. How well-garrisoned are the Japanese remote bases of the Marshall & Caroline Islands (especially Kwajalein & Truk)?

[Red Prince]

In regards to all of those theoretical posts concerning the Chinese Surrender and Super-DOW possibilities:

This is a major thought experiment, and I've tried to view each side in terms of the best potential options. What I mean, is that I've tried to figure out what sequence of actions will gain each side the greatest benefit in terms of US Entry.

US Entry is normally a delicate balancing act, but a combination of good luck for the USA and aggressive play by the Axis has created a situation that (I think) calls for less delicate play. I'm going to collate my chit summaries to see how "off" US Entry actually is from what should be expected. When I've finished that, I'll post the results.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

I may have mentioned upthread that US naval forces can base in the Philippines from the start of the game (e.g. US subs or convoy raiders in place) but I'm not sure if it had any traction. [:)]

Otherwise it's hard for the US to actually do anything during a surprise impulse vs Japan. Can't leave non-convoy naval units at sea between turns so no start-of-turn port strikes; can only move 1 unit per naval move while neutral so no setting up an unexpected surprise impulse invasion.

If the US has AMPH or Marines + TRS in Honolulu it can certainly look at surprise impulse invasions. How well-garrisoned are the Japanese remote bases of the Marshall & Caroline Islands (especially Kwajalein & Truk)?

I thought you had to choose the option to Reinforce the Philippenes first, but I guess I was wrong about that.

To answer your questions about the outer rim, there is very little there (read nothing) yet. I was hoping to get a GARR into each before the USA could enter the war, which is why I'm considering such drastic actions regarding US Entry Pools.

[WIF_Killzone]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: WIF_Killzone

This USA DOW talk aginst Japan has me thinking, if you are given the opportunity for USA to declare war on Japan first, can you position USA forces (plan and position for it now?) for a preemptive naval strike against some of the japan fleet? Would like to see the look on Yamomoto's face.

Well, this isn't as easy done than said. In preparation for war with the CW, much of the CV fleet has moved to Canton, which is out of range of everyone except the "holding" fleet at Honolulu. I can pre-position that fleet for a strike on Tokyo or Canton and replace at least part of it with ships from San Diego, but if I don't have 10 BB and 2 CV in Honolulu, I get a +2 to the DOW die roll, which means a greater chance of failure. Additionally, the fleet might do some damage, but it would die extremely quickly after it did that.

The Japanese, fully expecting to have the USA make the DOW rather than the other way around, has held back from the forward positions that might make this a viable option. Even the SUB fleet at Pago Pago is too short-ranged to be a serious threat to the Japanese convoy lines just yet. The sole purpose of a DOW would be to get 10 extra BP per turn and to scare Japan. It also improves the odds of a DOW on the EuroAxis by 10% if the USA is already at war with Japan.

Well its all about positioning well in advance isn't it, according to ones strategy. Considering that a savvy US player would notice what the Japanese are up to (i.e. their strategy) by the way its fleet is positioned...etc, the US player would naturally re-position his (or her units)--are there any chicks that play this game??, hmmm). geez, now that was a speed bump, hehhe.

As i was saying, the US player would re-position his fleet to counter japans strategy...but, at the risk (which may be too high) for an opportunity for a counter-strike by Japan on the repositioned US fleet (assuming the benefits to Japan were worth the change in its strategy...my brain hurts.

Moreover, in real-life(hmmm), a country was going to declare war, it would'nt normally just declare it to bump up production, it would have the assets in place, or nearly in-place to stick-it to em. It also wouldnt declare war if it was not ready. But, thats real-life.

Just a thought as I continue to ponder if chicks play this game .

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: WIF_Killzone

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: WIF_Killzone

This USA DOW talk aginst Japan has me thinking, if you are given the opportunity for USA to declare war on Japan first, can you position USA forces (plan and position for it now?) for a preemptive naval strike against some of the japan fleet? Would like to see the look on Yamomoto's face.

Well, this isn't as easy done than said. In preparation for war with the CW, much of the CV fleet has moved to Canton, which is out of range of everyone except the "holding" fleet at Honolulu. I can pre-position that fleet for a strike on Tokyo or Canton and replace at least part of it with ships from San Diego, but if I don't have 10 BB and 2 CV in Honolulu, I get a +2 to the DOW die roll, which means a greater chance of failure. Additionally, the fleet might do some damage, but it would die extremely quickly after it did that.

The Japanese, fully expecting to have the USA make the DOW rather than the other way around, has held back from the forward positions that might make this a viable option. Even the SUB fleet at Pago Pago is too short-ranged to be a serious threat to the Japanese convoy lines just yet. The sole purpose of a DOW would be to get 10 extra BP per turn and to scare Japan. It also improves the odds of a DOW on the EuroAxis by 10% if the USA is already at war with Japan.

Well its all about positioning well in advance isn't it, according to ones strategy. Considering that a savvy US player would notice what the Japanese are up to (i.e. their strategy) by the way its fleet is positioned...etc, the US player would naturally re-position his (or her units)--are there any chicks that play this game??, hmmm). geez, now that was a speed bump, hehhe.

As i was saying, the US player would re-position his fleet to counter japans strategy...but, at the risk (which may be too high) for an opportunity for a counter-strike by Japan on the repositioned US fleet (assuming the benefits to Japan were worth the change in its strategy...my brain hurts.

Moreover, in real-life(hmmm), a country was going to declare war, it would'nt normally just declare it to bump up production, it would have the assets in place, or nearly in-place to stick-it to em. It also wouldnt declare war if it was not ready. But, thats real-life.

Just a thought as I continue to ponder if chicks play this game .

As to whether chicks play this game . . . my friend, Cat, who is currently doing her PhD work near Venice (anthropolgy), tells me that every time I mention MWiF . . . instead of Matrix Games World in Flames, she has something completely different go through her mind . . . Mother-******* World in Flames. I don't know if this is a proper experiment, since it relies on a single subject and has no control group, but I've often wondered the same thing. I know a lot of women who enjoy other war games, but I have yet to meet one who is a WiF fan (my apologies to Steve's wife -- I know she is extemely helpful, both technically and morale-wise, but I don't know if she actually plays the game or not. [:)]