Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I just started to use the option under "Waypoints" to have the TF return the same way they went to their objective (why I waiting this long is unknown [&:]). Really helpful for CS Convoys to hug the coast and stay in shallow waters. I have to give those SC and PB a chance to hit something with the Type 92 DCs.

ANd saves a lot of extra clicking for regular convoys ...very nice feature that Michael added ...

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I just started to use the option under "Waypoints" to have the TF return the same way they went to their objective (why I waiting this long is unknown [&:]). Really helpful for CS Convoys to hug the coast and stay in shallow waters. I have to give those SC and PB a chance to hit something with the Type 92 DCs.

Yes! This is a great feature and is very useful.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I just started to use the option under "Waypoints" to have the TF return the same way they went to their objective (why I waiting this long is unknown [&:]). Really helpful for CS Convoys to hug the coast and stay in shallow waters. I have to give those SC and PB a chance to hit something with the Type 92 DCs.

Yes! This is a great feature and is very useful.

A great feature, yes. Unless you forget to click the button and the commander chooses the most infested route back.

I just looked ahead in the game and the PBs and small SCs never seem to get the Type 95 mod-2 or the Type 2 DCs, even the new ones in 45. Seems if the Japanese had figured out the Type 95 DCs were crap and replaced them on the DDs and Es they would have done so on the sub chasers and patrol boats as well, right? Maybe I'm missing something, like upgrades. Don't have the game here so I can't double check.

[Mike Solli]

***CAUTION – LOTS OF CALCULATIONS***

China/Manchuoko/Korea (C/M/K) Oil/Fuel

I’ve noticed that quite a few Japanese players suck the fuel and oil out of C/M/K early in the war. I propose that fuel and oil should not be pulled from C/M/K. In fact, after the SRA is liberated, I propose you begin to ship oil and (eventually) fuel to this region. Below is my argument.

Note that this is based on Japanese industry on 7 Dec 41 and does not take into account any future gains or losses based on changes in territory or destruction of industry. I always use a house rule that does not allow bombing of industry in China. I believe the lack of this house rule is can provide results in the game that are not intended. The Allied player has enough problems feeding the Great Yellow Horde. Should the Japanese player bomb the industry in Allied controlled China, that Horde would starve. Anyway, this is not an argument for or against that house rule…..

Also note that C/M/K produces a surplus of ~717k resources per month. Suck as much of that as you can to Japan. That will account for almost 69% of Japan’s need (outside of what the Home Islands produce).

Here are some stats on Japanese controlled industry in C/M/K:

At start balances:

Fuel: 971,700
Oil: 379,650

Monthly Production:

Fuel: 32,400
Oil: 18,000

Monthly Need:

Fuel: 42,600
Oil: 36,000

Monthly Shortage (Need – Production):

Fuel: 10,200
Oil: 18,000

Ok, those are the numbers. Now let’s analyze them a bit. Oil first because all it does is get refined to a useable form, namely fuel.

Divide the “at start balance” by the “monthly shortage” (379,650/18,000) and you get 21 months. This means that come ~1 Sep 42, the surplus of oil is gone. Now, the monthly fuel production drops to 16,200 (18,000*0.9). Hang on to that number. We’ll need it later.

Between Dec 41 and Aug 42, C/M/K produces 32,400 fuel per month and uses 42,600 fuel per month, which is a shortage of 10,200 fuel per month (same as the at start numbers). Life is good….. almost. We need to subtract 10,200 fuel for each of those months from the starting balance of fuel to see what’s left.

10,200*21 = 214,200 fuel consumed from the starting balance:

971,700 – 214,200 = 757,500 fuel remaining in the balance. Sounds good, right? Well, let’s see.

Starting in Sep 42, the oil glut is gone and the monthly fuel need is still 42,600. Now, the fuel produced per month drops to 16,200 (see, I told you we’d need that number again) so the monthly fuel shortage rises to 26,400 (42,600 – 16,200).

The remaining fuel will last 28 months (757,500/26,400). This takes us to Dec 44. At that point, the fuel is gone and the HI production in C/M/K should already have imploded. Remember, the HI gets wonky when fuel shortages begin to appear, but I’m not sure what the game engine considers a fuel shortage.

But, it’s actually worse than that. I didn’t factor in any fuel consumption from shipping. That will happen and I can’t give you a figure for that, which is unfortunate.

Conclusion:

Removing fuel and/or oil will hasten the collapse of the industry in the C/M/K region. At full production, this region produces 1420 HI per day, or 42,600 HI per month. That’s the equivalent of 1183 fighters per month. That’s a significant amount of HI. That is 10% of the total Japanese HI production at the start of the war.

Recommendation:

I recommend that the starting fuel and oil in the C/M/K region not be removed. In addition, I recommend that a close eye be kept on the surplus monthly the following be done to ensure the continued supply of HI:

Jun 42: Begin shipping 20k oil per month to this region.
Jan 44: Begin shipping 24k fuel per month to this region.

If this can be done through Dec 44, there will be sufficient oil and fuel in the C/M/K region to support the HI there through Sep 45. The refinery at Pt. Arthur will have sufficient oil to produce fuel through Mar 45. Add to that the 288k fuel shipped here in 1944 (24k * 12 months) and you will ensure HI production of the C/M/K HI factories through Sep 45, most likely until the end of the war.

Where should this fuel and oil come from? Good question! I recommend it come from Miri/Brunei. Combined, they produce 51k oil and 40k fuel per month. (That’s assuming you repair all of the oil fields and none of the refineries beyond 150.) I ship this stuff to Cam Ranh Bay and from there to the Home Islands. Once the Std- series xAKs begin to convert to TKs (Jun 42), just allocate some of them to ship directly from Cam Ranh Bay to Shanghai (or Hong Kong if you’re comfortable with the overland movement thing) and you should be good to go. The rest can still go to the Home Islands.

Also, keep in mind the 79k supply produced monthly in C/M/K. If the industry collapses, then you have to ship that into C/M/K in addition to whatever you’re currently shipping in order to keep the army afloat!

[ny59giants]

Somebody forgot to take their evening OCD medications (maybe even a few days worth were missed).

[Mike Solli]

[:D] I did that at lunch.

[ny59giants]

We have to find you another hobby.

Suggestions?!?

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

We have to find you another hobby.

Suggestions?!?

I'm applying to be a logistician for the DLA - a government logistician. [:D]

[DRF99]

Recommendation:

I recommend that the starting fuel and oil in the C/M/K region not be removed.

That's depressing...

In my first go as Japan v. AI, it's Feb 1, 42 and I've knocked myself out and already shipped all the oil in C/M/K to Japan.

[&:]

Live and learn.

This AAR really is a must for anyone playing the Empire.

[Mike Solli]

It's just my thoughts on it, not gospel. Did you leave most or all of the fuel there?

[Mike Solli]

To be honest, I took the oil out since WitP came out in 2004 and only stopped about a year ago. I look at it this way - I periodically ship supply to China. If I ship oil, that'll convert and provide some supply. It's really meaningless though, since 10 oil produces 9 fuel and 1 supply. I can also ship the 9 fuel and 1 supply for the same cost. No big deal either way. I do believe you need to feed the HI in C/M/K though, because if you don't, you'll have issues with your army there in late war. That wouldn't be a good thing.

[Mike Solli]

Thinking it a little bit farther, it is more efficient to keep the C/M/K HI fed. For the cost of shipping 2 fuel (whether it's in the form or oil or fuel is meaningless) you get 2 HI. If those 2 fuel go to the Home Islands to produce HI, you'll also need to ship 15 resources there. C/M/K has a surplus of resources so every Hi produced there saves you the fuel it would have cost to move those resources to the Home Islands. (I'm not talking about the excess resources, which need to go to the Home Islands anyway. I'm talking about the resources you'd use for the HI in C/M/K.)

[Mike Solli]

[Cribtop]

Question: if the Japanese player captures Sian and Lanchow Oil intact, how does that change the equation?

[Dan Nichols]

I think the oil will run out about 1 Sept 43, not 42

[Captain Cruft]

I think Mike is absolutely right. Although the individual HI "factories" in the C/M/K region are not large, in total they add up to quite a lot.

The easy way to deal with this (IMO) is to occasionally ship some fuel from Brunei/Miri or indeed Palembang to either Hong Kong or Shanghai. This is cheaper than shipping it to Japan, you cannot move fuel without also consuming it ...

Personally I also ship the very small oil surplus that Formosa provides to Port Arthur, but this is probably not material.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

I think the oil will run out about 1 Sept 43, not 42

Yup, you're right. Thanks for checking!

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Personally I also ship the very small oil surplus that Formosa provides to Port Arthur, but this is probably not material.

I think there are 8 oil there. That's 72 fuel a day = 72 HI a day or 2 fighters. That's 730 fighters a year. That's substantial.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Thinking it a little bit farther, it is more efficient to keep the C/M/K HI fed. For the cost of shipping 2 fuel (whether it's in the form or oil or fuel is meaningless) you get 2 HI. If those 2 fuel go to the Home Islands to produce HI, you'll also need to ship 15 resources there. C/M/K has a surplus of resources so every Hi produced there saves you the fuel it would have cost to move those resources to the Home Islands. (I'm not talking about the excess resources, which need to go to the Home Islands anyway. I'm talking about the resources you'd use for the HI in C/M/K.)

OK, I'd like to belabor this discussion further and feed Mike's OCD some more. Mike-there are some unwarranted assumptions and oversights in your calculations.

1. Not all HI used by C/M/K is near a fuel repository. If fuel has to travel to the site where it will be converted to HI, there will be wastage. In the case of Manchuko, this is not insignificant if the main fuel depot is, say Hong Kong. I believe the selection of port for fuel repository is very important before these calculations about theoretical production values hold merit.

2. Are your calculations regarding Chinese oil / fuel availability based upon all Chinese production facilities on the map or just those under IJ control immediately when the game starts?

3. Resource shipping into the home islands is easy as pie. Sakhalin to Hokkaido is a short jump. Hokkaido to Honshu is a grand total of one hex. Shanghai to Nagasaki is a short jump as is Korea to Shimononseki. It's probably as easy to ensure resource distribution into the home islands as it is to ensure consistent resource distribution into Manchuko, IMO.

4. You've overlooked the benefit of supply production and stockpiling on the home islands. I *want* several million extra supply on the home islands when the Allies come knocking in 1945. Goodness forbid I have to import this supply from C/M/K when the going gets tough. It may even be captured outright if it's in a far-flung production facility that is unfortunate.

5. Your suggestion here: I recommend that the starting fuel and oil in the C/M/K region not be removed. In addition, I recommend that a close eye be kept on the surplus monthly the following be done to ensure the continued supply of HI:

Jun 42: Begin shipping 20k oil per month to this region.
Jan 44: Begin shipping 24k fuel per month to this region.

This suggestion is fine by me. But 20k oil per month for C/M/K is a pittance of what will be collected by the Empire. You risk overstating your point and leaving others thinking that all oil and fuel should be so relegated, instead of 5-10% of that collected.

Indeed, I believe that dumping all fuel in Hong Kong will result in more wastage than benefit served by not completing the jump to the home islands.

But I hear you about the value of HI production in C/M/K. Indeed, I typically recommend expanding the HI in Canton and Hong Kong.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

To be honest, I took the oil out since WitP came out in 2004 and only stopped about a year ago. I look at it this way - I periodically ship supply to China. If I ship oil, that'll convert and provide some supply. It's really meaningless though, since 10 oil produces 9 fuel and 1 supply. I can also ship the 9 fuel and 1 supply for the same cost. No big deal either way. I do believe you need to feed the HI in C/M/K though, because if you don't, you'll have issues with your army there in late war. That wouldn't be a good thing.

Armies starving to death is a bad thing. But I believe that supply can be creatively routed into C/M/K from the surfeit produced in the home islands, particularly Honshu. Feeding the HI with fuel in C/M/K as a rationale for adequate late war supply is a non-sequitor in my opinion.