Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
May 18-20, 1944

Dan and I are cranking out the turns today so I thought I would do a quick update while waiting for his one.

North Pacific
Attu and Paramushiro Jima keep holding.  The Allied Deliberate Attacks are steadily wearing down the defenders.

Central Pacific
Marcus
I've gotten supply raised high enough, I just filled out any missing aircraft I need to flesh out the 7 CV, 6 CVL, and 4 CVE located here.  I'm also shifting the air groups around to help with balance and switch in more effective Daitai/Chutai.  I help with this I am also staging planes in and out of Saipan.

A group of 4 AR arrived recently and I have 1 CA, 2 CL, and 2 CV disbanded in the Port doing some quick repairs. 

A Tf of 4 freshly repaired SS arrived at Marcus on the 20th.  Three of them are Glen-SS amd will be posted around Midway to see what is happening. 

I would imagine that Dan thinks I am up to something.  I am doing the recon of Midway and placing more SS there to make him think that I might be stupid enough to attack the base.  Don't want to do that.  I want to hit a portion of his Fleet coming up from Eniwetok.

Wake
This logical target is getting a resupply run from Maleolap of 8,000 supply and I plan to pull some air units that are at strength 0 and cannot replace their aircraft.

ANYTHING to draw attention to Wake is good.  I want him worried about the base and whatever evil I might be planning with it.

Saipan
This is the staging ground for the air units moving back-and-forth.  It is well supplied so I can upgrade/change planes without any issue.

Tinian
Last troops arriving currently.

Guam
Same said for this island.

South Pacific
All the major ground units and base force I want to save are now loaded and moving to safer waters.  If there is no southwards move by the Americans from Ponape then I should clear the Rabaul--Lae Gap within about 10 days.

DEI
No major developments.

A convoy carrying 200,000 Oil and 20,000 Resources departs Jesselton on the 19th.  Another large convoy will be ready to sail in 5-7 days.

Indochina
Saigon
On the 19th I pull the 3rd Tank Division and 7th Tank Regiment out of here.

31,42
In this hex NW of Saigon I stage a LR CAP trap on Allied bombers.  Dan had a group of Wellington bombers attacking a Combat Command of mine that is approaching Saigon.  Seeing this, I decided to CAP it and stage an ambush.  It works quite nicely.  An attack by 31 Wellingtons is intercepted by 24 Japanese Fighters.  The ensuing aerial battle sees no Japanese losses in exchange for 18 Allied bombers.  Not bad...

Malaya
Singora
It falls on the 18th as I withdraw into Kota Bharu.

Alor Star
This base falls on the same day.  I now have a solid defensive line stretching from Kota Bharu to the base south of Georgetown. 

Outer Defensive Line
This line will be my first major line-of-resistance.  I will not fall back from here.  While not hold a lot of sttrength, each end does have Sz-9 Forts and a garrison of about 600 AS.  It should serve to hold for a bit.  As tentative as Dan has been in attacking I might hope that this line holds until early-June.

MLR
The Main LIne of Resistance will be at Johore Bharu.  I will hold it until forced back onto Singapore Island and then my boys will die gallantly.  If I can hold here until July that would be great.

Singapore
On the 19th I withdraw a Field Artillery Regiment, 2nd Parachute Regiment, and 38th Inf Div.  The 20th sees the 1st Reserve Tank Regiment lifted out.

Home Islands
Gumma
Having followed everyone's advice this base's supply is slowly moving up.  I have two HQ units and have moved Transport planes there in an attempt to draw more supply.  It moved about 8,000 for the first time in a while on the 20th.

Sapporo
After the sting I gave Allied 4EB over Gumma a few days ago there has only been this raid.  On the 20th 11 P-38 and 49 Liberators damage 23 Resources.

Supply and Fuel
Supply is rising throughout the Home Island cities.  I have 2-3 over 20,000 and 4-6 over 15,000.  I've already seen an improvement in production and the aircraft industry.  There is so much fuel in the Home Islands now that I am actaully loading empty supply convoys from Jesselton with it and am spreading it around at Manila, Formosa, Saipan, Marcus, and Palau.

Strategy
I have been thinking about Dan's next move and am not sure what it will be.  The LOGICAL move is to hit Wake and clear his supply lines.  It is what I would do; however, Dan has continued to surprise me with his thinking.  I would wager--given my tentative resistance at Eniwetok and Ponape--that he might feel emboldened to lunge southwards again.  He could attack Kavieng or Rabaul.  This would cut my supply and transport line (if I was actually keeping those garrisons) and be a good move. 

If this is his next move then I am out of position to meet it.  Does anyone have any thoughts regarding this?
 

[FeurerKrieg]

Strategy
I have been thinking about Dan's next move and am not sure what it will be. The LOGICAL move is to hit Wake and clear his supply lines. It is what I would do; however, Dan has continued to surprise me with his thinking. I would wager--given my tentative resistance at Eniwetok and Ponape--that he might feel emboldened to lunge southwards again. He could attack Kavieng or Rabaul. This would cut my supply and transport line (if I was actually keeping those garrisons) and be a good move.

If this is his next move then I am out of position to meet it. Does anyone have any thoughts regarding this?

Well, if you have already evacuated your garrisons and don't plan to support them, I think it would be a waste to try and stop an Allied offensive towards Rabaul. I would just continue to build your Wake-Truk-Palau line and if you scare him away from Wake then he'll spend a lot more time securing the southern areas than he would save by just taking Wake, then Marcus and opening the supply runs to Iwo.

If you can't scare him away from Wake, at least your build up will make him pay more for it than if you split your defense.

[ny59giants]

Use Tracker to ensure you have good leaders for all your CVs and then your LBA assigned to Arctic Wind. They do make a difference.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Strategy
I have been thinking about Dan's next move and am not sure what it will be. The LOGICAL move is to hit Wake and clear his supply lines. It is what I would do; however, Dan has continued to surprise me with his thinking. I would wager--given my tentative resistance at Eniwetok and Ponape--that he might feel emboldened to lunge southwards again. He could attack Kavieng or Rabaul. This would cut my supply and transport line (if I was actually keeping those garrisons) and be a good move.

If this is his next move then I am out of position to meet it. Does anyone have any thoughts regarding this?

Well, if you have already evacuated your garrisons and don't plan to support them, I think it would be a waste to try and stop an Allied offensive towards Rabaul. I would just continue to build your Wake-Truk-Palau line and if you scare him away from Wake then he'll spend a lot more time securing the southern areas than he would save by just taking Wake, then Marcus and opening the supply runs to Iwo.

If you can't scare him away from Wake, at least your build up will make him pay more for it than if you split your defense.

Thank You Sir. I agree. There is no point in fighting for ANYTHING east of my Inner Defense Line. Arctic Wind is all about hitting a portion of his Fleet and not fighting an invasion.

[John 3rd]

Michael--You hit the nail on the head!  I am doing that right now.  Want the best I can have to attack with.  My fighters are just so inexperienced right now.  It will be ugly.  I should have enough strength to get through.  We'll have to see.

[Nemo121]

Strategically speaking it seems that you are looking to fight him at Wake and then suckerpunch him in the gut elsewhere. With that said you are also, from what I see, worrying about bases you have already written off.

I would suggest that he who defends everything defends nothing. If he takes Guadalcanal/Rabaul and that axis then so be it. It will take time, you will build up your defensive perimeter and you don't have to resist every enemy thrust to achieve your strategic objectives.

As Japan you only need to crush/withstand ONE invasion in this time period to throw off the Allied timetable for months. If you guess Wake and he goes elsewhere then in two months time when he makes his next attack you'll have another chance to guess right. Eventually you'll guess right and be in a position to cull an invasion force. What matter it that that be tomorrow or 4 months from now? Not a whit.


It seems to me that you've cast the die ( wake plus CVs hitting a soft underbelly elsewhere ) and that you are now second-guessing yourself. Don't second-guess. If you're wrong you're wrong but second-guessing yourself merely means that EVEN if you are right you'll dissipate your force so much that what remains at the point of contact won't win.

Wake is a good guess and I happen to think that that's where he'll go. Have faith and stick to your gameplan until such time as he invades Wake or it is CLEAR that he is going elsewhere.


Rommel wasn't the genius many make him out to be, a good operational commander yes but not what the myth has created BUT I would defer to his words on this.... I paraphase here: "A gamble is a choice from which no recovery is possible while a risk is a choice from which recovery is possible. A good commander must ALWAYS risk." I would add that a great commander can be pretty handily defined as one whose gambles usually worked. For example, Rameses II at Kadesh, Hannibal at Cannae, Epaminondas at Leuctra, Caesar at Alesia, Marlborough at Blenheim, Wellingon at Waterloo et al.

So, you've decided to risk ( you aren't gambling because even if he invades elsewhere it shouldn't result in calamity for your forces and you'll get a chance to try again ) but you need to guard against dissipating your forces such that your risk can't deliver its just reward if you guess right.

[undercovergeek]

Apologies to dredge up something from the far away past John 3rd, and indeed if you think it doesnt belong here let me know. I am playing the 42a scenario in stock that starts May and have tried to use the opening few months to duplicate your achievements by this date - however as i take canton, baker, pago and suva, whilst also owning wake and marcus - where did you build the outer perimeter and which units did you use to fortify the islands? and did you build all to level 4/5 airfield and ports and fortifications to 9?

[John 3rd]

Nemo---Thank you as always.  I am most definitely nervous and jittery about the current situation.  I keep telling myself that he MUST hit Wake.  If he does that then I am positioned to attack if I think there is a chance of success.  We are now on the may 23rd turn and I am rapidly shifting my air units around on the CVs, Marcus, and Saipan. Your quote is great and, as a Professor of History--well I was at any rate--, it is truly appreciated.

I think that I have misled people regarding the remaining bases and their garrisons in the SE Pac.  I do not care about them whatsoever.  I've loaded the last good units that I want to use and they are moving through the Coral Sea right now.  Given 7-10 days time these convoys will be through and I won't worry a lick about Allied moves after that point.

Undercover--You ask a question that I have to serously think on.  I KNOW I pulled the 10 small Brigades out of China during the first 3-5 months of the war.  They build out to a nice 125-150 AS so they made decent assault units but better garrisons.  Even as I pushed all the way to the Society Islands I knew I would have to fallback eventaully.  If you read the early pages of the AAR you will see my thinking as 1942 began to wane and we looked at 1943.  I started pulling troops back to create the Outer Perimeter at that point.

My biggest mistake was not strengthening my Inner Perimeter any faster.  If I had had so much as ONE Inf Div at Iwo Jima Dan could never have taken it with his troops.  He struggles to wrest it from a Brigade for nearly 3 weeks.  THAT was my biggest mistake.  I simply cold not IMAGINE a landing at Iwo Jima in late-1943 let alone an invasion of Hokkaido in early-1944.  Each move has cost Dan severely (1200 ships sunk!!) but he still keeps on coming.

Let me ruminate on your question some more and thanks for asking.

[John 3rd]

May 22, 1944
Gumma, Japan

The dawns partly cloudy for the veteran Tony pilots at Gumma.  Six days ago they smashed the American heavy bombers forces and have been congratulating themselves ever sense.  As their Tonys were being patched up by mechanics a pair of Jack Daitai flew in to help provide cover for a few days.  Yesterday those Jacks got order to fly all the way to Pagan for some sort of secret operation.  Though about 20 Tony were still getting fixed up, High Command felt it safe to move them out.

The early raid warning comes through that a heavy strike is inbound from Iwo Jima.  Confidentally the pilots streap into their planes and climb to altitude.  Radar operators on the ground are not quite sure what make of this echo approaching Gumma.  There appear to be smaller planes accompaniing the larger bombers.  In the north radar warns of another B-29 raid coming down from Sakhalin.  The pilots are immediately warned of the three-fold danger.

As the Americans are spotted the Japanese pilots cannot believe their on eyes when they see 'Fork-Tailed Devils' ESCORTING the B-24 from Iwo Jima fro God's sake!  As the formations break and attack the japanese veterans of Burma are shocked to see the familiar tiger painted jaws on their adversaries!  The Flying Tigers, who just a week ago were at Sakhalin, are now flying out of Iwo Jima.

The fight is wild and crazy with the forces being reasonably matched: 62 Tony (all Experience 70-80) vs. 67 P-38 (AVG) and 118 4EB.  This time the fighters allow the B-24 to get close enough to ddrop their bombs.  It should be noted that fully half of the 4EB pitch their bombs early and bank for Iwo.  When the totals are tallied, the Japanese have lost 17 planes (only 8 pilots though) but taken 19 P-38, 7 B-24, and damaged another 30 B-24 past that.  The new Frank Production plants get touched for minor damage (7 Hits).

Slightly stunned by the battle, the pilots land, replennish, eat, and climb back to altitude in time for the Silver Bee strike.  In a humbling moment, the 45 Tonys realize that these bombers are flying flat out at 33,500 Ft.  The Japanese fighters cannot fly that high.  Nothing can be done except swear and shake their fists as the B-29 drop their loads onto a new Peggy Factory causing moderate damage (13 Hits).

Seemingly the Gods of Japan listen and another group of B-29 appear from the WEST (Chungking if you can believe it).  THESE planes are flying at an alittude that the Tony can hit.  The 45 angry pilots slash into these bombers and smash the Allied formation.  Though a few bombs hit the new Frances Factory (5 Hits) the pilots get their thrist for revenge somewhat sated.  For no losses the B-29s lose 7 bombers with another 16 damaged.

The Days totals settle out on the Japanese side fairly nicely.  For 17 planes and 8 pilots the Allies lose 19 AVG, 7 B-24, and 7 B-29.

Word of this attack rapidly spreads throughout the Home Islands and reinforcements arrive that night.  Two Daitai of Jacks as well as a Daitai of Tojo arrive.  When the American formations appear the NEXT time there will be well over 150 fighters ready-and-waiting...

[John 3rd]

The current situation:

[John 3rd]

Fairly simple plan...

[undercovergeek]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Let me ruminate on your question some more and thanks for asking.

thanks for your thoughts. I think its ok to type this as my opponent knows where i am at the moment anyway, but had it been stock Dec 7 i would have used Admiral Laurents AAR as inspiration and invaded Pearl as i have before, however as that is too late and your AAR starts in almost the exact same place as 42a i chose your AAR as inspiration as it should be to all IJN players who want to fight the good fight and go out in a blaze of glory and not behind the defences of Java and Wake i think youve done an excellent job here and will continue reading and formulating my battle plans along your path

[John 3rd]

That is a damned nice thing to say.  Thank You.

I truly wish I had started the AAR when the war began but at that time (several lifetimes ago) I had far less time on my hands then I do now. 

[John 3rd]

From Saipan Fleet Admiral Yamamoto takes a deep and cleansing breath as he re-transmits the signal that started the war "Niitaka Yama Nobore" to Vice-Adm Nagumo...

[John 3rd]

I cannot believe that I have to leave right now to see my Father.  I will be thinking about this the whole time I am with him!


"Hello my name is John and I am a War in the Pacific addict."

[John 3rd]

Arctic Wind
Order-of-Battle[/b]

Carrier TF 1—Adm Nagumo                                          78Z, 59DB, 70TB Akagi                           24—00--54
Kaga                            27—36--16
Ryujo                           27—23--00
CA, CL, 7 DD   

Carrier TF 2—Adm Yamaguchi                                          69Z, 63DB, 54TB Shokaku                       27—36--18
Zuikaku                        33—27--18
Chitose               9—00--19
2 CA, CL, 7 DD  

Carrier TF 3—Adm Yamada                                             54Z, 78DB, 43TB Amagi                          45—00--27
Unryu                          00—54--16
Zuiho                          9—24--00
CA, CL, 7 DD  

Carrier TF 4—Adm Ugaki                                              93Z, 18DB, 27TB Taiho                           63—18--00
Ryuho                          3—00--27
Shoho                          27
CA, CL, 7 DD  

Carrier TF 5—Adm Kusaka                                             41Z, 23DB, 5TB Hosho                          5—00--5
Taiyo                          27
Chuyo                          9—23--00
4 DD  

Carrier TF 6—Adm Kakuta                                             5Z, 27DB, 24TB Kaiyo                           5—00--15
Shinyo                          0—27--9
4 DD  

Totals:  7 CV, 6 CVL, 4 CVE with 841 Planes:  340Z, 278DB, 223TB  

Settings for Aircraft on Day 1:  CAP 50% Range 6, DB 14,000 Ft Range 6 No Search, and TB 12,000 Ft Range 6 No search  

Settings for the Planned Day of Battle:  CAP 20% and everything else the same.  Whatever is still flying at Wake will add LR CAP over the Fleet.  

STF 1 2 CL and 3 DD  

STF 2 2 CL and 1 DD

All this looks so nice as I paste it into this and I know the spacing will get all  &*(&%^-up! I had to come and edit so this looked somewhat decent...

[ny59giants]

Settings for Aircraft on Day 1: CAP 50% Range 6, DB 14,000 Ft Range 6 No Search, and TB 12,000 Ft Range 6 No search

Why do you have your DB & TB below 15,000 ft?? They will come in against his ships in 4 plane vs 9 plane formations. I always thought it was best in CV vs CV battles to go in from a higher altitude.

[John 3rd]

Michael--I have never heard of that! Does anyone know the answer to his question?

[John 3rd]

Dan is landing at Malacca once again.

I list this because it take my DAY TWO heading off of the page so Dan doesn't see it.  Might fully JUSTIFY his concerns...

[castor troy]

If you have your ac at 15.000 or lower you will attack with 4 ac groups. If you attack higher your attack goes in with 9 ac groups. Means not 4 but 9 planes will attempt to bomb a ship all the time.

I don´t like it, therefor I use the 4 ac tactic...