MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[composer99]

The rule for the US entry option allowing the US to reinforce the Philippines states:

You can’t move Allied land and aircraft units [Emphasis mine] to the Philippines until either you have chosen this option or an Axis land unit has entered the Philippines. Thereafter, there is no restriction.

No restriction on naval units is mentioned.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The rule for the US entry option allowing the US to reinforce the Philippines states:

You can’t move Allied land and aircraft units [Emphasis mine] to the Philippines until either you have chosen this option or an Axis land unit has entered the Philippines. Thereafter, there is no restriction.

No restriction on naval units is mentioned.

Oops. But I'm not sure I'd want to base a large fleet there. Maybe my SUB fleet, but nothing that could get crushed without warning.

[composer99]

Just enough SUB to make Japan sweat...

[composer99]

As far as the US preparedness for war with Japan goes (in terms of making a surprise impulse count), there are two things I think are pertinent:

First, because the US is usually neutral when it declares war on Japan, it has a hard time setting up a decent surprise impulse (Italy can often have a similar problem when DoWing France & CW early on). In this particular case, the speed of USE build-up may counteract the general difficulties which occur from being neutral.

Second, based on what we have seen so far in this AAR, it seems to me that Red Prince is generally skilled at single-theatre action for each major power (witness Germany's triumphs in France and then Spain and Italy's victory in Egypt as well as the Japanese victory in China); by contrast it seems he is not as skillfull when a major power has multi-theatre responsibilities (e.g. the difficulties the CW has encountered). For a more recent example, consider how the deployment of the German expeditionary force to the Caucasus was suboptimal both in scheduling and in unit composition.

(All that in addition to being barraged by piles of advice and suggestions from players with different viewpoints & play styles.)

Since most of the conversation for the US that I can recall upthread has focused on the need to intervene in Europe to take pressure off the USSR, it's not unreasonable to suggest that the opportunities the US might have if declaring war on Japan were not as carefully examined as they could have been. Likewise, while I assume Japan has been looking ahead at offensive plans for the future (vs. USSR & CW in particular) and has not perhaps been as attentive to the threats of an early US DoW (however limited given the short time frame - it's hard for the US to build up in only a year & a half) - hence the no garrison in Kwajalein & Truk - potential easy pickings if the US has the appropriate sealift/land unit combinations in range.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Changes Since Versions 09.03.05
(as of January 18, 2012)

13. 9.03.05 Post #1 Michael January 9, 2012
Surrender. Not all reserve units are removed from the map.
Fixed - January 17, 2012. I changed the code so all reserve units go into the reserve pool when a major
power is at peace with all other major powers. Non-reserve militia units go into the future force pool. I also
added missing code so the country specific reserve units are moved back into the reserve pool once the two
major powers come to peace (e.g., if the USSR conquers Germany, then the USSR reserve units specific to
war with Germany go back into the USSR reserve pool).

Almost, but not quite there. This came up in the AAR, and here is all the information I found that might relate (all taken from the Rules as Coded):
-----
Note: Underlined text is what I see as pertinent to the discussion.

4.1.2 Special additions
Neutral major powers can’t have MIL units. When you go to war, add your MIL units to your force pools.
Reserve MIL units would be placed on the map instead (see 9.6). If at the end of any peace step your major power is
neutral, remove its MIL units from the game until you are next at war with a major power (see 13.7.3).

9.6 Calling out the reserves
...
When the USSR comes to peace with Germany, move any reserve units with a “Germany” reserve status that
are either on the map or in the production pool to the reserve pool. Remove from the game all such reserve units in
the force pools.
When you come to peace with every major power (i.e. you are neutral again), move all your reserve units that
are either on the map or in the production pool to the reserve pool. Remove all reserve units in your force pools from
the game.

13.7.3 Mutual peace
If you are now a neutral major power, remove any MIL units designated Reserve you have on the map or in
the production pool and place them in the reserve pool. [Correction. Any other of your MIL units that are on the
map are placed in the reserve pool and are treated hereafter as regular (i.e., designated) reserve units - 2008 WIF
Annual.] Remove all your remaining MIL units from the game until you are next at war (see 4.1.2).

This last part is key, and I think it overrides the others. MIL that are on-map go to the Reserve Pool and are treated as Reserve units until the nation is next at war.

Thanks.[&o][&o]

Here are my inline notes on this. I will check the code today to make sure it does what I have just written here.

===

// ****************************************************************************
// See RAC 4.1.2, 9.6, and 13.7.3 for what happens to reserve and militia units
// when peace occurs.
//
// The current location of the unit determines whether it goes to the Reserve
// Pool, the Removed Pool, or the Future Force Pool.
//
// Militia units on the map become reserve units. Reserve units (this includes
// militia units that just became reserve units) on the map or in production go
// into the Reserve Pool. All other reserve units (e.g., those in the Force
// Pool) go into the Removed Pool.

// All remaining Militia units go into the Future Force Pool.
//
// When the major power again comes to war with another major power, the units
// in the Reserve Pool may be placed on the map immediately. Those in the
// Future Force Pool go into the Force Pool. Any units in the Removed Pool stay
// there.
// ****************************************************************************

[composer99]

RAW 9.6 also has this section:

When you call out the reserves:
- move your eligible reserve units from the reserve pool to the map immediately in the same manner as reinforcements (see 4.2) except that they are set-up face down; and
- put your eligible reserve units that have previously been removed from the game back into your force pools. [Emphasis mine]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Second, based on what we have seen so far in this AAR, it seems to me that Red Prince is generally skilled at single-theatre action for each major power (witness Germany's triumphs in France and then Spain and Italy's victory in Egypt as well as the Japanese victory in China); by contrast it seems he is not as skillfull when a major power has multi-theatre responsibilities (e.g. the difficulties the CW has encountered). For a more recent example, consider how the deployment of the German expeditionary force to the Caucasus was suboptimal both in scheduling and in unit composition.

(All that in addition to being barraged by piles of advice and suggestions from players with different viewpoints & play styles.)

I completely agree with this assessment. In almost all aspects of life, I do a lot better when I have only a few specific tasks I have to focus on. When my attention gets split while I'm trying to use the same set of resources, I tend to be the proverbial horse, trying to run off in all directions at once. This doesn't tend to work out very well.

Orm has started prompting me to think about what my long-term goals for the US are, and I have to admit that I have barely scratched out any real plans yet. I have a small invasion force available to each theatre and HQs ready to go in each ocean, but all I've really considered at the moment is helping the CW with its convoys (both adding my own and protecting theirs). This sudden (to me) turn of events has cuaght me somewhat off-guard, I'm afraid.

[composer99]

The ability to look at the WiF game from a more global picture is, IMO, a skill that comes with practice. Goodness knows I'm still working on it.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

RAW 9.6 also has this section:

When you call out the reserves:
- move your eligible reserve units from the reserve pool to the map immediately in the same manner as reinforcements (see 4.2) except that they are set-up face down; and
- put your eligible reserve units that have previously been removed from the game back into your force pools. [Emphasis mine]

Thanks.

How about this then:

// ****************************************************************************
// See RAC 4.1.2, 9.6, and 13.7.3 for what happens to reserve and militia units
// when peace occurs.
//
// The current location of the unit determines whether it goes to the Reserve
// Pool or the Future Force Pool.
//
// Militia units on the map become reserve units. Reserve units (this includes
// militia units that just became reserve units) on the map or in production go
// into the Reserve Pool. All other reserve and militia units (e.g., those in
// the Force Pool) go into the Future Force Pool.
//
// When the major power again comes to war with another major power, the units
// in the Reserve Pool may be placed on the map immediately. Those in the
// Future Force Pool go into the Force Pool.
// ****************************************************************************

[composer99]

That looks correct. Good old RAW/RAC - so many rules...

[Centuur]

How can the USA prepare for a war, which might start so early? That's almost impossible to prepare for. The USA simply didn't have enough time to prepare, so only a very few units capable of offensive tasks are on the board. There's one MAR, some SUB's and the fleet. That's all folks. There wasn't time for building a lot, wasn't there?
IMHO, since the US entry level did go so fast, it isn't suprising to see this, isn't it?

Now: reading all this in regards to US entry, the question now is: what do the Axis know? They know that the USA passed the bill and lost a chit for it. That's all (in a normal game).
The Euroaxis knows he is in a reasonable position to try to kill the USSR (reasonable, not great, since the composition of the units going to Persia is not good and the Italian airforce isn't at the eastern front). However: he is pressed for time. The longer he is waiting, the worse is his position going to be, because of the big green monsters high US entry.
The Japanese are on the move to the USSR border and are 1 factory away to conquer China. That's good.

So what to do: DoW the USSR this turn by the Germans and start moving into Eastern Poland. It's snowing, in the Arctic and that's good for moving units. Wait a turn for a better surprise impulse? Why? To give the USSR another turn to build more INF units? In M/J there is also the risk of bad weather appearing in the Arctic zone. You should use all reasonable weather you can get, if you are in position at the border. Snow is reasonable weather. Rain, Storm and Blizzard are not. So attack. You are ready, do so. Don't wait until the first Fine impulse comes around, because that can still be a long time, if you are unlucky with the weather rolls...
Next turn: the Japanese DoW the USSR, conquer China, DoW the CW and the French in subsequent impulses. By doing this you put an awful lot of chits into the US entry pools. Also let the Italians and Germans DoW China and let the Italians DoW the USSR seperate from the Germans. Why: because it doesn't matter anymore and you should try to frustrate US entry.
This might delay the US entry in the war a few turns (or not, if you are unlucky).
In those turns you've got your hands free to try to grab as much from the USSR as possible. Therefore: move now with the Germans into the USSR, since every impulse delay will mean 3-4 hexes less USSR in Axis hands at the end of 1941 (given reasonable weather).
Also: the Japanese are going to be oil embargoed next US entry phase, if you don't give the USA another option to choose, which he should do, because it is more important than the oil embargo. That option is to send resources into the USSR. He should choose this option before the oil embargo if the USSR is at war with Germany. If not, well: the USA is playing into the hands of the Germans.

I would never wait for fine weather. Snow is good enough to start the war with the USSR. And that's also, because Eastern Poland is almost empty of enemy units.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The ability to look at the WiF game from a more global picture is, IMO, a skill that comes with practice. Goodness knows I'm still working on it.

I think of WIF as having 3 major decision making tasks: tactical, operational, and strategic. That's how I am setting up the AI Opponent's logic.

Tactical and strategic should be obvious to readers of this forum. My definition of operational here is the deployment of assets (e.g., units) to different theaters. These decisions need to be planned out 2-6 turns in advance.

It is quite easy to screw up any and all of these decision types with results that are intensely annoying to the decision maker.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

That looks correct. Good old RAW/RAC - so many rules...

Don't you go stealing my motto now! (Too many rules . . . too many rules . . . )

I'm gonna copyright that some day, ya know.[:D]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

One downside to DOWing the USSR in snow is that the turn is likely to be short. That means all the Russian reserves will become organized and capable of moving sooner. A DOW during fine weather means they are likely to be disorganized stationary targets in cites, instead of forming a defensive line behind a river.

In general, the worst turn for the USSR is the second one after the DOW. That's because of the horrendous losses in the first turn and that the newly built militia haven't arrived in the frontline yet. Any newly built INF and GAR are still sitting in production.

When the DOW is during a short turn, the losses are less and the Germans not as far into Russia when the turn ends. That lets the militia deploy to better hexes more easily. Similarly, the new INF and GAR get onto the map sooner.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

So what to do: DoW the USSR this turn by the Germans and start moving into Eastern Poland. It's snowing, in the Arctic and that's good for moving units. Wait a turn for a better surprise impulse? Why? To give the USSR another turn to build more INF units?

Answering just this question for now. This is the entire land unit force pool the Soviets have to work with -- until the MIL start showing up. If I can't make good progress at the start of the turn, and if it looks like the turn will be short, I don't want to add those MIL to the force pool.

Now I'll read the rest of the post (which might explain why what I just said is stupid). [:)]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I would never wait for fine weather. Snow is good enough to start the war with the USSR. And that's also, because Eastern Poland is almost empty of enemy units.

It's not the Northern part of the USSR I'm worried about. It's the Ukraine. Snow up north might mean Storm or Rain in the South, and that's where I need to get good Ground Strikes and advance the most -- so I can try to get to Stalingrad (or thereabouts) by the end of the summer.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Here is information on land unit builds. The USSR wants them to arrive soon and at low cost.
It looks like Koniev and motorized are the best bet given the force pool composition.

Building ahead might deserve investigation.

[composer99]

To be fair, Bessarabia is in the arctic area if memory serves, so snow should be suitable for a March/April DoW.

BTW: haven't seen an end-of-turn report. I assume that's because the various players concerned about the US gear up (in particular US player Red Prince, Japan player Red Prince, CW player Red Prince) are engaged in some serious cogitation. [;)]

Once again, I should like to re-emphasize that, in my opinion, if the Allies have a +2 initiative bonus they should (a) not ask for a re-roll even if they lose initiative, and (b) make the Axis go first if they do win initiative.

I think it is much more important to preserve the initiative bonus plus re-rolls for the summer. Yes, March/April could see sunny skies and panzers racing to the Dneipr, but given the highly variable weather - who knows?

[composer99]

If the Germans go in in March/April, unless they get a long clear-weather turn they probably won't kill a whole lot of USSR units.

So I agree with Steve in building MOT and HQ-I Koniev. Also, the MECH should be produced. All of these units will arrive in the key July/August turn, as will any INF/GARR builds in March/April.

[Red Prince]

While I've been listening to the discussion, I went down through every last potential USE roll so far in the game, and here are the year by year results:
-----
A/B = Expected/Actual chit draws
The first line in each sequence is Ge/It, the second is Ja, and the 3rd is the combined values
1939 is based on an average chit value of 2.333444
1940 is based on an average chit value of 1.789041
-----
1939 Total Chit Selections
4.5/5 Values: 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4 / -1, -3
3.8/6 Values: 0, 1, 2, 4, 4, 5
8.3/11 Values: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5 / -1, -3
Average Value of chits drawn: 2.69 / -2
Total Value of chits drawn: 35 / -4 = 31
Expected Value of chits drawn: 30.33 / -4.67
Expected Value of Expected chits drawn: 19.37

1939 Total Tension Chit Moves
1.5/2 Values: 3, 4
1/2 Values: 1, 4
2.5/4 Values: 1, 3, 4, 4
Average Value of chits moved: 3
Total Value of chits moved: 12
Expected Value of chits moved: 9.33
Expected Value of Expected chits moved: 5.83

1940 Total Chit Selections
9.7/8 Values: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3 / -1
7/5 Values: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3
16.7/13 Values: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3 / -1
Average Value of chits drawn: 1.57 / -1
Total Value of chits drawn: 22 / -1 = 21
Expected Value of chits drawn: 25.05 / -1.79
Expected Value of Expected chits drawn: 29.88

1940 Total Tension Chit Moves
1.6/1 Values: 4
1.2/1 Values: 5
2.8/2 Values: 4, 5
Average Value of chits moved: 4.5
Total Value of chits moved: 9
Expected Value of chits moved: 3.58
Expected Value of Expected chits moved: 5.01
-----
1939-40
Ge/It Expected Values of Expected chits Drawn: 27.8541957
Ge/It Expected Values of Expected chits moved: 6.3626316
Ja Expected Values of Expected chits Drawn: 21.3903742
Ja Expected Values of Expected chits moved: 4.4802932

If everything had gone "as expected", these should be the current numbers:

Ge/It Entry: 40.7
Ge/It Tension: 11.8
Ja Entry: 36
Ja Tension: 9.9

. . . except that a different set of decisions would have been made by the USA. The key here is that Tension grew much much faster than it should have. I think looking at 1940 proves that the actual chit draws tend to even out over the course of the game, but if Tension builds quickly enough, the USA can get the production schedule going that much faster.
-----
If you think this looks wrong, or if you think I've screwed something up somewhere, I'd be happy to post the entire file I used to make these calculations.