Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Personally I also ship the very small oil surplus that Formosa provides to Port Arthur, but this is probably not material.

I have been shipping this to the home islands, like all other oil that I can get my grubby little mitts on. But, in late August 1943 I have noticed (just last turn) that I have run out of oil in Port Arthur and it is not refining. I may take your advice to ensure that Port Arthur gets fed properly.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Thinking it a little bit farther, it is more efficient to keep the C/M/K HI fed. For the cost of shipping 2 fuel (whether it's in the form or oil or fuel is meaningless) you get 2 HI. If those 2 fuel go to the Home Islands to produce HI, you'll also need to ship 15 resources there. C/M/K has a surplus of resources so every Hi produced there saves you the fuel it would have cost to move those resources to the Home Islands. (I'm not talking about the excess resources, which need to go to the Home Islands anyway. I'm talking about the resources you'd use for the HI in C/M/K.)

OK, I'd like to belabor this discussion further and feed Mike's OCD some more. Mike-there are some unwarranted assumptions and oversights in your calculations.

1. Not all HI used by C/M/K is near a fuel repository. If fuel has to travel to the site where it will be converted to HI, there will be wastage. In the case of Manchuko, this is not insignificant if the main fuel depot is, say Hong Kong. I believe the selection of port for fuel repository is very important before these calculations about theoretical production values hold merit.

2. Are your calculations regarding Chinese oil / fuel availability based upon all Chinese production facilities on the map or just those under IJ control immediately when the game starts?

3. Resource shipping into the home islands is easy as pie. Sakhalin to Hokkaido is a short jump. Hokkaido to Honshu is a grand total of one hex. Shanghai to Nagasaki is a short jump as is Korea to Shimononseki. It's probably as easy to ensure resource distribution into the home islands as it is to ensure consistent resource distribution into Manchuko, IMO.

4. You've overlooked the benefit of supply production and stockpiling on the home islands. I *want* several million extra supply on the home islands when the Allies come knocking in 1945. Goodness forbid I have to import this supply from C/M/K when the going gets tough. It may even be captured outright if it's in a far-flung production facility that is unfortunate.

5. Your suggestion here: I recommend that the starting fuel and oil in the C/M/K region not be removed. In addition, I recommend that a close eye be kept on the surplus monthly the following be done to ensure the continued supply of HI:

Jun 42: Begin shipping 20k oil per month to this region.
Jan 44: Begin shipping 24k fuel per month to this region.

This suggestion is fine by me. But 20k oil per month for C/M/K is a pittance of what will be collected by the Empire. You risk overstating your point and leaving others thinking that all oil and fuel should be so relegated, instead of 5-10% of that collected.

Indeed, I believe that dumping all fuel in Hong Kong will result in more wastage than benefit served by not completing the jump to the home islands.

But I hear you about the value of HI production in C/M/K. Indeed, I typically recommend expanding the HI in Canton and Hong Kong.

Chickenboy, I’ve been waiting for your comments. Good stuff. Who’s OCD?! [:D]

1. You’re right, wastage wasn’t factored in. I have no clue how to do that. I think there’s an easy workaround though that I’ll get to in a minute. First, it appears to me that there are two primary fuel depots where fuel tends to accumulate – Hong Kong and Pt. Arthur. That’s not too bad. The Pt. Arthur depot most likely feeds the HI in Manchuoko and the Hong Kong depot may (just guessing here) feed China. I propose sending fuel to Shanghai. Fuel doesn’t stay here long. Maybe it’ll feed China?

The workaround is to use tracker or a spreadsheet (if that’s what you prefer) to track fuel (and oil) in C/M/K monthly. This will tell you the net gain or loss of those two commodities. You can then determine what you need to ship there (if anything) in the coming month. That’s typically the way I manage my stuff and where to ship it.

2. My calculations are based on what the Japanese control on 7 Dec 41. Things will change over time. The fact that things will change reinforces my suggestion to track commodity by region monthly to account for those changes. I have a spreadsheet I use that I update monthly that performs those calculations for me.

3. Yup, I agree with you. I ship Sakhalin to Hokkaido (both resources and oil) and Hokkaido to Ominato (resources and oil). I also do Shanghai to Nagasaki (resources) and Fusan to Shimonoseki (resources). I currently am shipping resources from Pt. Arthur to Nagasaki (resources) but will phase that out as Fusan’s port is built up.

4. I agree with you here as well. I also want a huge stockpile of supply in the Home Islands late war. As we know, supply is produced from HI, LI and refineries. As long as we have resources and fuel, the HI and LI produce. The key is oil to produce supply from refineries. I estimate that the Home Islands need ~240k fuel and 100k oil a month to keep the economy going. That will produce 340k supply per month. Calculation:

240k fuel “fuels” 120k HI producing 240k supply
100k oil refines to 10k supply and 90k fuel, which “fuels” 45k HI producing 90k supply.

240k + 10k + 90k = 340k supply per month

I recommend a relatively small amount of oil and fuel be shipped to C/M/K. I don’t think this will affect supply production in the Home Islands much:

24k fuel = 24k supply
20k oil = 20k supply

Total = 44k supply per month

5. Thanks for making that point. Yes, every drop of oil (beyond the 20k per month) needs to be shipped to the Home Islands and all fuel (beyond the 24k shipped to C/M/K and that needed for fleet missions) also needs to be shipped to the Home Islands.

I don’t recommend shipping fuel to Hong Kong (beyond what is needed for HI there and in Canton as you said). I believe it needs to be shipped farther east, possibly Shanghai, as I mentioned above.

I’m going to do some more on this considering I goofed on the oil by a year (!) and add some extra for losses such as wastage and ships.

Edit: Read the next post.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Question: if the Japanese player captures Sian and Lanchow Oil intact, how does that change the equation?

Cribtop! It seems you just asked the supremely important question. I did some calculating earlier and here's what I came up with. Please check the numbers because it sees to be too good to be true:


I just calculated the changes to C/M/K after adding Sian and Lanchow (at 100%) to Japanese holdings. The results are very interesting.

Here’s what the two cities have to offer:

Sian
20 Oil
20 Refinery
160 Resources
20 HI
20 LI

Lanchow
90 Oil
90 Refinery
60 Resources
No HI
60 LI

Their combined monthly net production (after everything in those hexes do their things):

0 oil
28,500 fuel (Yay!)
84,000 resources
6900 supply
1200 HI points

This is significant. The excess fuel will take care of the rest of the shortages for C/M/K. This means that there is no need to ship fuel or oil into C/M/K. Wow! Also, the extra resources increase the surplus to 801k per month available to be shipped to the Home Islands.

This tells me that the initial Japanese operations in China need to have the goal of liberating these two bases. Should there be some destruction of the infrastructure of the bases, the following needs to be repaired:

All oil
All HI
Refineries to total 50 (60 refineries are not needed)
No LI
Resources are optional.

Why only 50 refineries? There are 60 extra refineries in Pt. Arthur. They can take up the slack from these two bases if needed.

Let’s do some more calculating.

Starting HI: 710

The need is 710*2*30 = 42,600 fuel per month.
Monthly fuel production from oil production is 60*9*30 = 16,200.

Net shortage is 16,200 – 42,600 = -26,400 fuel per month.

Ok, we start with the following:

379,650 oil which converts to 341,685 fuel (791,650 * 0.9)
971,900 fuel

which gives us a grand total of 1,313,585 fuel at start in C/M/K. We’re going to lose some to fueling ships and wastage. Let’s say 50%. (I have no clue what it really is but I’m trying to err on the high side.) That gives us ~650,000 fuel available to sustain the C/M/K HI.

The C/M/K HI needs 26,400 per month in addition to internal production so the surplus gives us:

650,000 / 26,400 = 24 months before we need to supplement C/M/Ks fuel. That’s Dec 43! So, we have until that date to capture and repair Sian and Lanchow.

One more note: Once any needed repairs are complete, if the # refineries = # oil centers, then check to see if there is excess oil at Pt. Arthur. If there is, note that amount and ship it to the Home Islands. The excess refinery capacity in the Home Islands would be happy to refine the extra oil.

Very interesting indeed!

[Historiker]

I would recommend turning off the refinery at Lanchow. The oil will finally find a refinery to use it, and flowint htere doesn't cause spoilage. You simply don't need any fuel around there.

Considering the spoilage and transport waste factor, it might even be wise to increase refinery capacity close to some HI points on the mainland, while turning others off. I'd prefer oil marching the land than fuel....

[Cribtop]

I asked because I have captured those bases intact and noticed based on my back of the napkin numbers that I should be ok for a long time. Good to have the professor confirm my gut!

PS - leave it to a Texan to instinctively try to capture oil fields, I guess. [:D]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Historiker

I would recommend turning off the refinery at Lanchow. The oil will finally find a refinery to use it, and flowint htere doesn't cause spoilage. You simply don't need any fuel around there.

Considering the spoilage and transport waste factor, it might even be wise to increase refinery capacity close to some HI points on the mainland, while turning others off. I'd prefer oil marching the land than fuel....

Historiker, that's a great idea!

[Mike Solli]

15 Mar 42

Sub War

Nada.

5 Fleet

I tried a SA against Dutch Harbor that failed miserably. Japanese losses were 231(2) to 33(0) Allied losses. One of the Naval Guard units is in poor shape being almost entirely disrupted but the other is in good shape. I’ll wait until the infantry regiment arrives before I try again.

KB is still hanging out south of Adak, out of sight. Still no sign of Allies BBs or CVs.

4 Fleet

The next wave of 7x Naval Guard units is enroute from Japan to their new homes on the frontier.

SE Fleet

Six Betties escorted by 5 Zeros went after that damn AM again just south of Pt. Moresby. Five Kittyhawks rose to meet them and sliced through the Zeros (I thought these guys were good?) like they were biplanes, tearing into the Betties. Four were allegedly shot down but only 2 crews were WIA. I guess it was FOW. Odd.

Philippines

The 16 Division is at Bataan and ready for action. I’ll try a DA with the 16 & 48 Divisions along with the 65 Brigade to test the waters.

China

Maneuvering continues.

Burma

There was no action in the air other than my daily 1E bombing raids of units here and there.

On the ground, Shwebo was successfully assaulted. Japanese losses were 197(0) to 707(81) Allied losses with 2 of the 6 defending units destroyed (Upper Burma BAF Battalion & 1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment). I’ve now cleared the plain and am moving forward to push the remaining rabble out of Burma.

The CA TF has arrived at Rangoon to refuel and sucked Rangoon dry. I’ve turned on the refinery there to produce more fuel for them. I’ll try to keep a reserve of fuel there (10-15k fuel) for emergencies in the future. Other than that, Burma oil will remain as oil and flow south overland.

18 Division is enroute by TF from Singapore to Rangoon.

Java

The long awaited (well, not really but it sounds good) DA against Kalidjati went off without a hitch today. The 6:1 attack against level 3 forts was picture perfect. It was a notable battle, the largest tank battle to date. Here’s the OOB for both sides:

Assaulting units:
20th Recon Regiment – 20 Division
40th Brigade – 20 Division
4th Tank Regiment
78th Infantry Regiment – 20 Division
7th Tank Regiment
8th Tank Regiment
2nd Tank Regiment
21st/A Division
26th Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
Batavia Coastal Gun Battalion
1st KNIL Regiment
4th KNIL Regiment
Mobiele Eenheid Battalion
Lijfwacht Cav Sqn
Tjilatjap KNIL Battalion
Tjilitap Base Force

Given the fact that the Dutch were surrounded and had poor leadership, the level 3 forts really didn’t help a whole lot. For a total of 668(7) Japanese losses, the entire Dutch garrison surrendered losing 12371(1280) troops. I believe this was a grave mistake on Ted’s part. He divided up the majority of the Java garrison among 3 different bases: Soerabaja, Kalidjati and Batavia, with a smattering of small units in other bases. This dilution of his major forces in 3 instead of 2 (or even 1) major bases will allow me to take Java quickly and with relatively minor forces. I have only 2 divisions (20 and 21) along with 4x tank regiments and some support. I don’t know what the Batavia garrison is composed of, but I’m confident that I will take it quickly. It is already surrounded and major Japanese forces will be there in a few days.

I’m pretty sure Ted decided to garrison Kalidjati because that was my invasion site in our last game, and I used it to great effect. Its level 4 airfield pretty much forced Ted to garrison it heavily. I’m just surprised that he never moved the garrison to Batavia after I achieved my bridgehead elsewhere.

SRA

I’m still sucking fuel out of Palembang, something that will go on for a long, long time. The fuel level is low enough that I have turned the refinery back on.

I’ve discovered that there is still a shortage of AS in this part of the world (along with most other places). I’m shipping those units as soon as they arrive as reinforcements. There actually are a lot, but they need to be placed more efficiently, something I am in the process of doing. My air force (both IJA and IJN) is scattered as well and needs to be rearranged for defense as well as ASW and offensive ops in Burma (where there also is a shortage of AS). It’s the chicken and egg syndrome. I can’t move the air units until I get the AS in place and much of the AS is locked in place because it is supporting some air units. I’m shuttling around the small excess AS I currently have and am trying to get more AS there as quickly as possible to accelerate the process.

Other Stuff

The future…..

My Phase I operations are coming to a close. I expect them to be complete by mid to late April (hopefully sooner). The conclusion of this phase (and future plans) includes the following:

Burma

This is a slow process but is working well with few losses on the ground. Currently, I have the 33, 55(-) and 56 Divisions there with 18 Division enroute by sea and IG Division soon to follow by sea. Future reinforcements will be 2-3 more tank regiments as well as significant artillery, plus significant AS and AA units. Most of the 3 Air Division will end up here as well as the entire 22 Air Flotilla (primarily based at Pt. Blair). In June, I will get reinforcements allowing me to form the 1 and 2 Tank Divisions. These units will end up in Burma as well. I would like to move on Imphal as a Phase II objective, but we shall see if that is practical.

SE Fleet

Soon I will own all the bases (with the important exception of Pt. Moresby) between the Solomons, southern New Guinea and points north. Luganville is being considered as a forward observation point. It’s definitely expendable but would provide a nice post for some flying boats. I haven’t done much recon on it and really don’t know if it is garrisoned. I’ll have to find that out. If I have a spare sub, I’ll post it there to see what it can see. Then there’s Pt. Moresby. My intel is showing 30k troops stationed there! They’re sitting tight and Ted isn’t trying to oppose me in the air over Pt. Moresby. I don’t have enough bomber strength to really bomb the place effectively (just 27 Lilys and 54 Betties) and the Betties are being used (rather ineffectively most of the time) in a naval attack role. I doubt that I can take the place but that option is still on the table. I still have the 90 and 144 regiments and the Gds Brigade down there doing nothing. I need to make a decision there soon. The 144 regiment eventually will head to Burma because it is the missing regiment of 55 Division.

Another thought I’ve been toying with is an invasion of the Australian mainland (say Cooktown) and Horn Island instead of trying for Pt. Moresby. This would allow me to station Betties all around Pt. Moresby and more effectively cut it off. The problem is that Cooktown would be surrounded by Allied bases. Hmm….

4 Fleet

Right now I’m just building my outer crust (infantry and forts). I have not done anything other than the historical expansion. I’m thinking of taking Baker Island (currently unoccupied) just as an additional potential target for Ted. If he did attack it, it would just cost him more time. If I were the Allied player and my opponent took Baker, I’d just ignore it or use it for bombing practice.

5 Fleet

My initial plans of taking Adak and points west were changed suddenly when I thought it would be smart to attack Dutch Harbor and Umnak Island. In retrospect, that may have been a mistake. Anyway, Ted doesn’t have much force there, only a small base force unit and the 2/250 Coastal Artillery Battalion. My 2x Naval Guard units (1 currently combat ineffective) don’t have the combat power to take it. I have a decent infantry regiment enroute (should be there soon) and I’ll land it and try again. With KB in the vicinity, I could bomb them using KBs aircraft and probably take the island easily but that would show my hand there. My real goal is to ambush an Allied TF of capital ships (BBs or CVs). I’m not sure they’re even coming back though (or where they went). Another option is to detach the 4x Kongos escorting KB and have them make a high speed run in to bombard the place. I’m still debating and have a few days before a decision has to be made.

Something I need to do is to get some air power in the Aleutians. Right now the total air power there is exactly 2 Emilies. Wow! The problem is there are none to be had. I could probably scrounge up a Nettie daitai, but there are no fighters available and that shortage is going to get worse with some frontline fighter units on the hit list to be withdrawn soon. There are some on the reinforcement track but I’m going to need more in Burma/Pt. Blair.

Philippines

Bataan is doomed. It’s only a matter of time. I’ll try my first DA tomorrow to see the state of the Allied forces there. They have been bombed daily. In the practically daily ground bombardment, their strength is slowly deteriorating. The sooner the better because it frees up the 14 Army for other potential missions.

SRA

I still have to take just about all points south and east of Kendari. Forces are enroute, but they are just small units changing green to red on the strategic map. I para dropped the 2 Raiding Regiment on Koepang a while ago hoping for a coup, but they didn’t have the strength to take the base. They’re in good shape and are being supplied by air. Ted doesn’t have the ability to reinforce either. I currently have a good SNLF that will land there tomorrow. I hope they, combined with the raiding regiment, will have enough strength to take the place. That’ll provide me with a nice airfield to forward deploy some Netties. If they don’t, I have an additional SNLF available that I can ship there.

China

I still have 10 surrounded units to clean up. One army is tasked with that job. In the north, I am headed to Sian and Lanchow. Intel is showing Sian with 123k troops. It may be a long siege. That’s ok. More Chinese in the bag eventually. Will he ever run out to troops in China? Sheesh! Once both of those bases are liberated, my focus will turn to the south to clear the coastal and SE parts of China. I intend this to be a campaign of maneuver, to surround or force the Chinese forces to displace.

IJAAF

The 3 Air Division will be stationed primarily in Burma. There will be some fighter, recon and ASW (primarily 1E bombers) scattered around the SRA (mainly Palembang and Java) but pretty much the rest will be in Burma.

The 5 Air Division is currently in the Philippines for the most part. One Lily sentai is at Lae and the fighters are in the Balikpapan area. This air division will eventually guard the southern SRA with a strong detachment in the SE Fleet area.

IJNAF

21 Air Flotilla – Southern SRA and Java.
22 Air Flotilla – Pt. Blair and Burma.
23 Air Flotilla – SE Fleet.
24 Air Flotilla – 4 Fleet.
25 Air Flotilla HQ – New reinforcement headed to Batavia.
11 Air Fleet HQ – Headed to SE Fleet.

15 Army – Burma (33 & 55 Divisions)

25 Army – Malaya (5 Division) and Burma (IG, 18 & 56 Divisions)
16 Army – Java (38 Division) and Southern Sumatra (2 Division)

14 Army – Southern SRA (16 & 48 Divisions and 65 Brigade)

Southern Army – Reserve (4, 20 & 21 Divisions & 21 IMB) – 21 Brigade will go to Pt. Blair after Java is concluded. I haven’t decided where to position the divisions yet.

The future (where to go – if anywhere):

First of all, here’s what will be available for future offensive missions:

4 Division – currently in southern Sumatra
20 Division – currently in Java
21 Division – currently in Java
2 Division – currently in northern Sumatra
38 Division – currently resting in Singapore
16 Division – currently in Bataan
48 Division – currently in Bataan
65 Brigade – currently in Bataan

Northern Australia – If there really are 30k troops in Pt. Moresby, Australia has to be pretty sparse in troops. I’ve done this every game Ted and I have played. Do I do this again? Pro – there may be few troops here due to the presence in Pt. Moresby – maybe. Con – Ted will expect me to do this again and be ready for it. Con – Darwin is a nice base for enemy bombers to hit the southern SRA.

Ceylon – I’m considering this as a recon in force. The goal would be to kill all the Allied units on the island and then leave just a small sacrificial defense (or nothing at all). Pro – I don’t think Ted, in his wildest dreams, would expect me to head here. Con – What does it really accomplish? I would need carrier air support and MKB would be all I would send here. KB is needed to guard the rest of the world.

The Aleutians – I’ve done more here than I’ve ever done in the past, but Ted hasn’t really opposed me (other than Dutch Harbor and Umnak (which I pulled my troops out of)). Pro – It’ll keep his forces from touching my currently vulnerable 5 Fleet area. Con – It really doesn’t do much for me other than create another isolated area I have to supply. It’s ultimately doomed. I guess I could take it for a year and then run and leave a couple of dogs behind.

Central Pacific – Midway, Johnston or Baker Islands or any of the islands in that area. Pro – Uhh…. Con – More doomed troops, bomb magnets. Con – I thought of one. Maybe it’ll force Ted to oppose it with his carriers. That may actually be a con. I want to oppose Ted’s carriers with my carriers within my LBA. Right now Ted won’t do that.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Well the 3rd air division is BIG. If there is no imminent air war in Burma you could stretch it out to guard the entire area from Burma to uh lets say Ambon for a while and transfer the 5th air division to the Aleutians.

[ny59giants]

I would like to move on Imphal as a Phase II objective, but we shall see if that is practical.

I would think about marching into China from Burma and then linking up with your forces in China. Make him rely solely on the supply generated in China.

Right now I’m just building my outer crust (infantry and forts). I have not done anything other than the historical expansion. I’m thinking of taking Baker Island (currently unoccupied) just as an additional potential target for Ted. If he did attack it, it would just cost him more time. If I were the Allied player and my opponent took Baker, I’d just ignore it or use it for bombing practice.

Taking Baker and Canton would open up the possibility of raiding his SLOC between the USA and South Pacific/NZ/Oz. It would be easier to slip carriers, SC TF, and even subs into that area.


Looking at future objectives, the questions comes to you putting your hat on as the Allies. You focus a lot on the Japanese logistics and their economy. What can you do to disrupt the flow from the USA to others places on the map?? Since you allow bombing of industry right now as Magwe is slowly being bombed back to the stone age, how do you plan to protect your assets?? Northern Australia and even over to Perth area might keep him away form the critically important SRA even longer. The Central and South Pacific do nothing except push his transports further south.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Ceylon – I’m considering this as a recon in force. The goal would be to kill all the Allied units on the island and then leave just a small sacrificial defense (or nothing at all). Pro – I don’t think Ted, in his wildest dreams, would expect me to head here. Con – What does it really accomplish? I would need carrier air support and MKB would be all I would send here. KB is needed to guard the rest of the world.

I'm a big fan of the smash and grab in Ceylon. IRL, this would have caused panic amongst the British in the Far East and mass confusion. Was their entire SE Indian front coming unhinged? Will they have to buttress Madras or points further West from invasion? If their Burma troops are also cut off by a landing in E. India, what would they do if they couldn't wrest control of the sea lanes from the Japanese encampment on Ceylon?

In the game, I believe that two CVLs are cancelled if Colombo is captured. The Japanese player gets the VPs for that just as if they were sunk. Don't know if that changed in the latest patch or not. Some feel this gamey, but no more so than B17 bomber sweeps, marching 5 divisions over the Owen Stanleys to take Lae and E. P/NG or borked supply routes that favor an early Allied advance. It's in the game, so it's in the game.

You will have to do this operation in force-a recon in force will be insufficient strength to beat 'em up good.

Kill Britisher LCUs and base forces?
Destroy a portion of the RN with KB?
Destroy two CVLs on the slips?
Cut off a chunk of the E. Indian forces to forestall their rebuilding?

Where do I sign?

[Mike Solli]

My my, such good arguments, all three of you. [:)]

Let's see. GZ - Good idea, but the only issue with the 5 AD is that they suck at naval attack. If Ted comes this way, it'll be in ships. I won't be able to stop him on the ground, only slow him a bit there. It'll be killing ships that stops him.

NYG - you're spot on, as always. Your argument is the reason I alway have hit N Australia in the past. Ted knows my preferences. That's why I'm minus the Hiryu right now. I fear a drawn out battle tying up a good chunk of my ground forces needed to defend the SRA. Still, it's the obvious choice to secure the SRA.

CB - I suspect I used the wrong term. What I meant by recon-in-force was to take the island temporarily, then withdraw. If you leave forces there too long, it becomes a POW camp. I need those divisions for the future. It does sound like a lot of fun. I was thinking the invasion force would be 5-6 divisions and some armor and artillery. MKB could hang out to the SW for support. Unfortunately, it's just out of Nettie range of Pt. Blair. It's not really a game winner, but it definitely would be fun and different.

At any rate, nothing happens until I take Batavia, because two of the divisions would be the divisions currently taking Java. Still time to think about it.

[ny59giants]

The easy part of playing Japan is coming to a close in the next few months. You have less than 1/2 month worth of the "Invasion Bonus" so unless the forces are prepped and loaded right now, I don't see you going anyplace soon. Your style is very methodical, but you now have to go outside your comfort zone to a certain degree and find a place that you force him to fight with his air force. Like I mentioned before about the Allies, especially the Americans, have enough pilots, its NOT having enough airframes. You MUST force him into a battle of attrition in the air. If not, he can sit back and rise up at various times to fight you briefly in overwhelming numbers, then hide and continue to train up his forces.

Invading Ceylon will be a place that will force the issue, but it may not be long term enough as he will fortify the coast and send in his subs to interdict your re-supply efforts.

Aleutians is too narrow a front and "Ms Weather" is a fickle mistress, especially up here where operations are at her mercy.

The west and east coast of Australia seem to be the best place for this to happen. You need to bleed him here for the rest of '42 while you build up behind. The India/Burma front cannot be ignored, but it is too easy for him to pull back outside of escort range of the Zero to train while his infantry and large AA units make it costly for you.

Choose wisely, my young Jedi. [:D]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I would like to move on Imphal as a Phase II objective, but we shall see if that is practical.

I would think about marching into China from Burma and then linking up with your forces in China. Make him rely solely on the supply generated in China.

Right now I’m just building my outer crust (infantry and forts). I have not done anything other than the historical expansion. I’m thinking of taking Baker Island (currently unoccupied) just as an additional potential target for Ted. If he did attack it, it would just cost him more time. If I were the Allied player and my opponent took Baker, I’d just ignore it or use it for bombing practice.

Taking Baker and Canton would open up the possibility of raiding his SLOC between the USA and South Pacific/NZ/Oz. It would be easier to slip carriers, SC TF, and even subs into that area.


Looking at future objectives, the questions comes to you putting your hat on as the Allies. You focus a lot on the Japanese logistics and their economy. What can you do to disrupt the flow from the USA to others places on the map?? Since you allow bombing of industry right now as Magwe is slowly being bombed back to the stone age, how do you plan to protect your assets?? Northern Australia and even over to Perth area might keep him away form the critically important SRA even longer. The Central and South Pacific do nothing except push his transports further south.

Good thoughts in general, but N. Australia as a 'also ran' is increasingly difficult. Many Allied players are waiting for this. Combined with the uber B17/B24 armada's effects on ground troops in the open in N. Australia (it's ALL in the open practically), this makes for an expensive barrier to the SRA. It may not be necessary or even worth it if you opponent opposes you with everything at his disposal. The IJ can scarcely afford to get bogged down here in April 1942.

Witness the pending annihilation of the IJ in N. Australia in Sprior/Mandrake's AAR as exhibit one. Exhibit two is my own abortive 2x2 PBEM with USS Mike and AW1Steve. My troops (I played as IJA) were butchered by repeated waves of (unescorted) B17s in the open. It was a real dog's breakfast trying to extricate them too.

This is another argument for Ceylon. Limited ability of Allies to reinforce or defend, limited number of opponents present to defend in the first place, it forces your opponent to redeploy in defensive formations (or risk a move directly onto Bombay if he fails to do so) and it outright kills some enemy units. It's a limited offensive, sure, but it's a way to hurt 'em for comparatively limited downside.

And it's also unexpected...[;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

The west and east coast of Australia seem to be the best place for this to happen. You need to bleed him here for the rest of '42 while you build up behind. The India/Burma front cannot be ignored, but it is too easy for him to pull back outside of escort range of the Zero to train while his infantry and large AA units make it costly for you.

In April 1942, the IJAAF inventory is not up to the task of dealing with waves of B17s, ny59giants. I don't know about scenario 2, but I've yet to see a successful long-term position in eastern Australia in scenario 1.

There would be chronic blood loss, but who's bleeding who?

[ny59giants]

I'm one of the few players that has a HR against using 4e bombers below 10k and they cannot bomb troops. IRL, they were seldom used in this role. If allowed to in AE, it will be almost impossible for Japan to resist. In your game CB, you are steadily destroying the Japanese forces wherever you send the B-17/24s.

I will keep this HR in any future game, regardless of the side I play. Playing this way probably biases the way I view the game and may make some of my observation incorrect.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
In your game CB, you are steadily destroying the Japanese forces wherever you send the B-17/24s.

Hi ny59giants. I didn't understand this comment. As I only play the Japanese, I don't have the opportunity to send the B17s anywhere. Were you thinking that I was playing the Allies?

ETA: Given the opportunity to send all B17s and B24s somewhere, I know where I would choose to send them. To hell! [:@] [:D]

BANZAI!

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I'm one of the few players that has a HR against using 4e bombers below 10k and they cannot bomb troops. IRL, they were seldom used in this role. If allowed to in AE, it will be almost impossible for Japan to resist. In your game CB, you are steadily destroying the Japanese forces wherever you send the B-17/24s.

I will keep this HR in any future game, regardless of the side I play. Playing this way probably biases the way I view the game and may make some of my observation incorrect.

Anyways, that HR is a potential game changer. It puts a lot of things back on the table and changes my mind about a lot of things. Mike Solli-do you have such a HR?

[Mike Solli]

To quickly answer the last question in your little ping pong match - The only HR involving bombers is the inability of either side to bomb infrastructure in China. Other than that, all's fair....

[Mike Solli]

A little bit more info - I believe he's lost exactly 2 B-17Es. He's got some full B-17 squadrons out there somewhere. I've seen hide nor hair of them so far. I'm working on getting Tojos early but so far none of the R&D factories are completely repaired. *Sigh*

[Wirraway_Ace]

Mike,

as a retired Army Logistician, your AARs always bring a smile to my face.

My thoughts:

Ceylon is a good operational objective. It deprives the RN of its last main fleet base in the IO, rendering it nearly impotent. This reduces significantly his ability to interdict your SLOCs to Burma. You will need to ship in supply once the RAF wrecks your industry there and heavily reinforce towards the end of 42. Allied CVs can also raid Palembang using Celyon as a base.

Northern OZ has very little going for it unless it is part of a massive effort to isolate OZ. Aussie armour (when trained and upgraded) and the 5th AF will handly wreck what ever you put there without delaying his ability to invade the southern SRA a day unless you are simultanously cutting off the flow of fuel and reinforcement through Sydney and Perth. I frankly think this is beyond Japan's capabilities against a solid Allied opponent.

A deep thrust into SOPAC is very logistically challenging, but it can often bring the US CVs and 4Es into exposed positions. If you can estabilsh a strong forward base with plenty of fuel, ARs, AKEs and ADs at, say Tulagi and buildup airfields at Lugenville and Noumea, a threatened invasion of Fiji can bring the Allied key assets into striking range. Anytime he masses his 4Es in a coastal hex, he puts them at significant risk. The trick, of course, is that the combined fleet is exposed along with all the tankers it takes to support an operation in SOPAC.

CENPAC is too vast to make much difference.

NORPAC is a side show.

Depending on how the war has gone to date in China, the Southern Army divisions available after all the phase I objectives have been taken can many times tip the balance dramatically in favor of Japan--if combined with massed air power and a very large infusion of supply.

Summary: Only a massive operation in SOPAC or a strategic pivot on China offer the chance of strategic success (defined as crippling the US CVs and 4Es or freeing up much of the Army in China). That being said, both are risky. Ceylon offers the chance for achieving an operational objective that will slow SEACs eventual counterattack.

mike