Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

August 31, 1942

Subs

I-7 torpedoes and sinks the mighty AM Madras near Sydney. Seadragon duds on a PB near Singapore. Annoyed by this boat's arrogance at lurking in shallow waters, we break four fleet DDs out of Indes Fleet and send them hunting (this in addition to another ASW TF and ASW aircraft already deployed).

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

We've got a picket line of PBs on station here now like we do off the West coast of Australia. Of note, one PB picket has lurked for a week only 8 hexes from Luganville without any Allied search aircraft overflights. We've been able to use a lack of air search against CF in the past and may do so again here. This may be a sign the enemy is not serious about the Solomons, but it's just one data point.

Paratroopers load at Truk for their duty station at Rabaul. We will have 120 AS of crack paratroopers standing ready as a local reserve with rapid deployment capabilities.

Chichi Jima hits level four forts.

Southern Army

Kittyhawks sweep Tennant and shoot down 3 Nicks ordered to sacrifice themselves to allow the tank regiments to escape attack. We are fortunate that the pilots are only WIA. The three tank regiments do indeed march out of the hex and even get 20+ miles on toward the next hex East. CF doesn't attack the base today but it will no doubt fall tomorrow.

Three AA units will get to Daly Waters in about a week to provide another weapon for 4E attrition.

Sinabang is occupied and sets up shop as a seaplane base. Siboeret is next.

15th Army

Cribtop HQ is annoyed that the IJAAF refuses to bomb Ledo. We will try tomorrow for a maximum effort with both day and night raids.

A Zero group based at Rangoon re-sizes from 27 to 45, which is wonderful.

China

We order a BA at Pingsiang to test the waters. This base will be taken and then it's on to Changsha. If the BA shows we need more combat power, two fresh divisions will arrive in about a week.

Several regiments have arrived at Nanning and Kweilin to take over garrison duties, freeing up a small para unit and the brigades of a division that will move to Liuchow and re-combine. A second division is en route as well now that the enemy's Kukong thrust has been stymied.

Combined Fleet

Recon of Perth and Sydney is inconclusive. We frankly have no idea where the USN carriers went, but will keep looking. If they move toward the DEI we have lots of early warning to spot them. Same thing in the Solomons.

Other

Mr. Tojo arrives! We immediately ramp up production of the Tojo IIa and will work to replace most Oscar groups. Priority is for groups in Burma and the 1st Sentai, which is currently loitering at Babel with an IJAAF bomber wing and a Dinah group, awaiting commitment to whichever theater CF chooses for an offensive.

A question - we have 75 Ha-5 engines in the pool from pre-war stock. We aren't producing or using them. Is there anything to do with these engines? IIRC they can be used in Anns, which are decent ASW platforms. However, we will soon have so many Lily Is looking for a job that perhaps we can't do anything with the old Ha-5s. Thoughts?

[Cribtop]

Full update later, but the APD FT TF that RO-33 recently missed near Noumea today lands a small infantry unit at unoccupied, Japanese held Ndeni. Recon of Sydney shows 37 LCUs present. Both of these events argue for a SWPAC advance but then the last time the enemy fleet was sighted it was headed West toward Perth.

Cribtop HQ is racking its brains. Which side of Oz will CF strike? Where should Combined Fleet go? The fleet is currently hedging bets at Babel, but we'd like to figure out the enemy strategy and be in the neighborhood. We are also getting ready for offensive actions in case the Baker and Ndeni moves don't presage a major attack in, say, a 60 day time frame.

What do you readers think? CF is more cautious than I am as a player, so it's hard for me to read him sometimes. Baker wasn't a feint for a move elsewhere. It's easy to assume that Ndeni is, but maybe it's just housekeeping for later. I want to move on Baker or Luganville, and I'm aware of and agree with the voices that want Japan to keep the initiative, but I don't want to do anything in SWPAC three days before CF unveils The Plan and launches a multi-divisional assault on Burma, Malaya, Java or Timor.

My read for now is that SWPAC is more likely given the more convervative and historical nature of CF's play, but I can't shake the gut feeling that CF was heavily influenced by Q-Ball's successful offensive up through the Timor axis in their PBEM.

[Cribtop]

PS - in re-reading the post above it could be subject to misinterpretation. I am not saying I will wait 60 days and then try something offensive. Rather, I am saying that if intel and recon efforts convince me with reasonable certainty that CF is not going on a big offensive in a 60 day window I am likely to try something. Those are very different propositions.

If CF looks likely to try something soon, I'd prefer to anticipate it and have my counteroffensive play off his original thrust.

[Canoerebel]

If CF is a cautious player - as you believe and as his history suggests - then it is unlikely that he's going to take big chances as early as September 1942.  Japan is too powerful at this point in the game - at least in a major head-to-head battle.  CF probably isn't going to risk a major move into Indian Country in which he might have to face the KB.  I can't see him moving on Timor, Java or Malaya at this point in the game (caveat - I haven't been able to read this or any other AARs in depth recently, so if there's been major losses to the KB lately I missed that).
 
CF did suffer a devastating defeat in his game vs. Q-Ball when Q-Ball invaded Timor and the DEI in October 1942.  I'm sure that experience was etched into his psyche.  He knows he got burned bad at an early point in that game.  But September '42 is even earlier.  I just don't see him taking big chances.
 
[:)]

[Alfred]

Always distinguish the facts.[:)]

Two reasons why Q-Ball was successful in his Timor axis move, and even then it was a much closer run race than perhaps you remember it to be.

1. Q-Ball executed well a large maskirovka operation in Centpac which directly contributed to Cuttlefish being unprepared to meet the main Allied operation on the Timor axis.

2. The KB was caught in a dead end sea hex and was therefore destroyed. I presume you're not planning on placing the KB in a similar dead end sea hex.[;)]

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

Q-Ball's maskirovka was devastaing, but it wasn't large.  As I recall it included CV Long Island with an F4F squadron and not much else.  But CF certainly fell for it.  As a result, CF was caught off guard in the eastern DEI.  It really wasn't a close thing at all.  Brad was ashore in Timor in good shape before CF was anywhere close.  By the time CF gathered his troops, he was panicking, which contributed to the awful naval battle that took place near Namlea, as I recall.

[Cribtop]

Thanks, gents. CR, fortunately KB has not lost a CV or CVL, or even suffered any significant pilot losses (knocks on wood).

Alfred, indeed, the PT intercept heard round the world had a lot to do with the loss of KB in CF's game against Q-Ball, and no, I don't plan to sail KB into any box canyons. [;)] I am also aware that the occupation of NW Oz places some limits on enemy freedom of action in the Southern Army AO (as I define that AO). This was quite intentional.

Finally, I agree with you both that an out of the blue attack in Sept '42 just isn't CF's style, and regardless of play style carries significant risks for any Allied player.

I'll recon for another week to look for enemy dispositions and identify targets. Then Combined Fleet will move. For the moment, Luganville looks like the best target for a spoiling attack, but I want to use Glen recon to see what local assets are available at Noumea, Luganville and Fiji.

[d0mbo]

Hi Cribtop,
 
FWIW: I use my HA-5 engines on the MC-10 (?) transport plane. It's the best transport (load/range wise) for the IJA in the early war.
 
Cheers,
 
d0mbo.
 
 

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

August 31, 1942

Subs

I-7 torpedoes and sinks the mighty AM Madras near Sydney. Seadragon duds on a PB near Singapore. Annoyed by this boat's arrogance at lurking in shallow waters, we break four fleet DDs out of Indes Fleet and send them hunting (this in addition to another ASW TF and ASW aircraft already deployed).

Good hunting. Because of the valuable traffic here and the possibility of actually hitting a sub in the shallows, I keep at least one and at times more ASW TFs cruising around here. A night search Jake unit wouldn't hurt either to get early turn reaction for your hunters.

Other

Mr. Tojo arrives! We immediately ramp up production of the Tojo IIa and will work to replace most Oscar groups. Priority is for groups in Burma and the 1st Sentai, which is currently loitering at Babel with an IJAAF bomber wing and a Dinah group, awaiting commitment to whichever theater CF chooses for an offensive.

A question - we have 75 Ha-5 engines in the pool from pre-war stock. We aren't producing or using them. Is there anything to do with these engines? IIRC they can be used in Anns, which are decent ASW platforms. However, we will soon have so many Lily Is looking for a job that perhaps we can't do anything with the old Ha-5s. Thoughts?

Congrats on the Tojo! How many will you build, and how much of the R n D will you push forward to the Iic?

As for the Ha-5 engines, if you think you could use the Sally Ic in ASW or for later as a kami, (although its deadly slow) this could be an option. Of course the Topsy 1 might be useful still until the Tabby comes along. I built out the pool with Sally Ic and it's been very useful in China to have that extra 50 bombers. Pools are gone now in May and I'm slowly going to replace them with Sally IIa and Helen I.

[Cribtop]

Obert,

Yeah, I've got ASW a/c and now 2 ASW TFs hunting near Singapore.

The Sally Ic may be the best use of the Ha-5s. The IJAAF wing in Luzon that was suppressing Bataan and Clark was equipped with them. This group is now very uber after daily practice and will go to the Helen, but we could use Sally Ics as ASW platforms and in China.

On R&D, the factory researching Tojo IIa is now researching the IIb (which is pretty useless due to the 40mm cannon (in)accuracy). However, the idea is to pull forward the IIb and then switch over without damage to the IIc. We've piled up over 500 Ha-34s to get the research bonus, which should help. The vast majority of R&D efforts are directed at George, Frank and Jack. We even have a size 30 factory working on Sam just for kicks.

Currently, the 100 factories formerly producing Oscar Ic have re-tooled to Tojo IIa.

[Cribtop]

September 1, 1942

The Allies invade Ndeni.

Subs

Gato duds on a DD escorting TKs near Bihoro. Grouper duds on an xAK East of Luzon. This is the first sighting of USN subs in the Philippine Sea, which is bad news as we've been using it a lot.

Recon of Perth is scrubbed by weather. At Sydney we find 37 LCUs and a dark anchor. DL is too low to pick up any specific ships, so we'll keep flying.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

The Marines land on Ndeni by FT TF. It's well executed and the APDs are gone by first light, which is good for CF as we have 36 Nells at Munda Point. Intel shows 2640 enemy troops. The base is undefended and will fall tomorrow.

Southern Army

56th, 18th and 48th Divisions are all less than 2 days out from their staging bases. Cribtop HQ feels a lot more secure in this region now.

Tennant Creek, abandoned by the IJA, is occupied by the Allies.

Trinkat invaded by DBCL troops.

15th Army

Again the night bombers don't fly. The daylight raid goes in, but thunderstorms ruin accuracy and the raid is not successful.

Prome makes level 4 forts.

China

BA at Pingsiang shows raw AS 2319 to 968. We will DA tomorrow under cover of a bombing raid by both China bomber wings.

Kweilin makes level 2 forts.

Combined Fleet

Currently cooling its heels at Babel while we accumulate intel.

[Cribtop]

September 2, 1942

Pingsiang falls! [&o]

Subs

A dedicated ASW TF finds K XV near Singkawang and puts one penetrating DC hit into the sub. That should send her home.

Gar duds on an SC near Toyohara. Then the same sub is chased off by escorts of a resource convoy.

Recon of Brisbane shows only 2 LCUs. Recon of Perth goes off but DL is so low we can't draw any conclusions yet.

4th Fleet

A second SNLF for Tarawa is one days' sail out.

SE Fleet

Ndeni is occupied by the Allies.

Southern Army

Soebi-besar invaded. Lautern makes level 3 airfield.

15th Army

We get lazy and pay the price. CF sends 4 UK DDs to ambush our DBCL task force at Trinkat. The TF is empty, so no troops are lost, but 2 xAK and a DMS go down. We thought about sailing out of the hex last turn while the ground troops did their thing, but figured we had so much air search in the area no one could sneak up on us. We were wrong - CF's DDs must've moved in at flank speed from beyond our search arcs. A lesson for the future. A PB and a third xAK survive and escape. By dawn, our G3M3 pilots find no sign of the intruders.

Trinkat is occupied by our suddenly stranded DBCL company.

China

We are disturbed that weather scrubs all our bombers from hitting Pingsiang. Despite the lack of air support our troops prevail, dropping forts to 0, obtaining a 2:1, and taking the base. 17(!) LCUs surrender! Banzai! It turns out the single Allied controlled hex side meant nothing because we had our armored cars stationed in the hex adjacent to that hex side. 10 Corps, 2 base forces and 5 HQs surrender. Casualties are a tasty 35,977(3,822) vs 2,871(12). Wow. That's almost a year's worth of replacement squads. Ouch.

[&o]

Better, this action, as planned, frees up a lot of combat power to go for Changsha. Cribtop HQ calculates it can bring over 5,000 AS of battle hardened troops to bear. Niiiice!

Combined Fleet

We are trying to devise an operation that would draw the enemy fleet into a trap. It's rather difficult because CF is unlikely to let himself be sucked into range of our LBA. Hmm.

[ny59giants]

TOJO POWER !! [&o][&o]

You can go from Tojo IIa to Tojo IIc via the IIb. You have to click on the next model in the series first when doing R&D. If you skip one, then some will become damaged. To prove this for you, make sure you have saved the game. Click on "J" to open up Industry screen. Just pull up your R&D and then click on the Tojo IIb. You should be able to upgrade to the IIc without have any factories damaged. If they do become damaged, then exit the game and reload.

[Cribtop]

Thanks, Michael. That's what I did. Worked like a charm. With Mr. Tojo we will seek out the Allied air force with the IJAAF everywhere we can. [&o]

[Cribtop]

September 3, 1942

Subs

Lots of action, most of it bad for Japan. CF has clearly launched a big sub offensive, focusing on the DEI. We will shift even more ASW assets, primarily aircraft, to counter.

Seawolf duds on a TK near Muntok. K XIV sinks an xAK in a new Singers to Manila resource convoy near Jesselton. K XV sinks an APD in an ASW TF that was hunting the sub near Singkawang. [8|]

I-18 goes ahead with a midget attack on Perth for recon purposes. She dodges ASW ships on the way in, drops the midget (which can't penetrate the harbor), then torpedoes and sinks the AM Colac on the way out, taking a penetrating DC hit in return.

Recon of Perth shows no anchor but what looks like a TK convoy. A second pass over Brisbane shows 5 LCUs.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

We are moving an LCTF to hover at Ontong Java, in position to intervene if CF tries for any more cheap conquests.

Southern Army

Waingapoe makes level 2 airfield and provides a base in the center of the island chain East of Java.

Soebi-besar occupied.

15th Army

An analysis of yesterday's raid revealed a small gap in our air search patterns in the Bay of Bengal. We close it today and spot the UK DDs heading westbound, proof of concept that we closed the hole.

A night raid finally goes into Ledo. It's ineffective, but a moral victory they finally launched.

China

Marching on Changsha.

Combined Fleet

No change.

[Cribtop]

September 4, 1942

Subs

An ASW TF harasses Gar near Toyohara, then the sub duds on an SC. Gato duds on an xAK in the same waters. We will soon unlease an elite ASW group here.

4th Fleet

Bettys hit Baker and find that a construction unit has joined the Raiders.

Tarawa is now reinforced with a second SNLF unit. Total AS is now 100.

SE Fleet

Pago Pago port goes to 4.

Southern Army

No change.

15th Army

Night bombing of Ledo goes in but is ineffective as most bombers "stray" in low moonlight and poor weather. Lao Cai is now building to be an LRCAP base for the other end of the re-supply flights.

China

Our hasty calculations on AS were wrong. Instead of 5,000 AS, we will be bringing 7,000 to the party at Changsha.

Combined Fleet

No change as we continue to lack any info on the USN. From what Cribtop Intel can decipher, far from prepping an offensive the enemy may have gone to ground. Plan is to send Glen boats to various odd corners in search while a special I-boat with fully trained recon pilots in the Glen group obtains definitive intel on likely spots like Sydney, Perth, and Noumea.

[Cribtop]

September 5, 1942

Today is all about the subs.

Subs

DD Hasu chases Porpoise away from a TK convoy near Singers. Seawolf duds on an xAK near Palembang. Both enemy subs are lucky as we have ASW aircraft and 3 ASW TFs operating in the area.

Porpoise's luck then runs out as she takes a run at our DBCL TF at Groot Natoena - a lowly PB puts a penetrating hit on the sub that CF confirms was nasty via e-mail.

I-17 misses a KV near Umnak Island and takes a DC hit as well. It's not very serious, but enough to force the sub to retire.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Nells out of Munda spot an AV at Ndeni. Tomorrow we will try a port attack to deal with this pest.

Bora Bora port port level goes to 3.

Southern Army

Groot Natoena invaded.

15th Army

Meiktila airfield hits level 3.

China

As we march on Changsha, Canton makes level 6 forts and will stop there. Hopefully it never comes to this, but good luck taking a heavy urban hex with level 6 forts.

Combined Fleet

I-34 arrives and we load it up with 70+ trained recon pilots. She departs Tokyo for Truk and then on to find the enemy fleet.

Other

Fusan makes level 5 port, awaiting an increase in business once Changsha (hopefully soon) falls. A little nostalgia there as my Dad went through Pusan in the Korean War, which oddly enough served as the springboard to a brief professional baseball career (fun story I once detailed in the "family war stories" thread a few months back).

[Cribtop]

September 6, 1942

Q-u-i-e-t D-a-y

Subs

A DE DCs I-6 near Perth, chasing the sub away from a small convoy of xAKs.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

A big port attack at Ndeni by 36 Nells fails to find the enemy AV spotted yesterday. She probably headed for the hills once CF spotted our search planes yesterday.

14th Army HQ and 65th Brigade will arrive at Truk tomorrow. 65th Bde is bound for Milne Bay.

Southern Army

Nicks tangle with B-17s over our retreating armor in NW Oz. We get 2 critical hits and 2 B-17s damaged, but forget to check Tracker on this, so we're not sure how many B-17s failed to get home.

Groot Natoena occupied.

15th Army

No change.

China

We are marching on Changsha while the enemy force at Ankang is still trying to march into the mountain hex to the SE (map) of our mountain blocking force. Not sure whether the enemy intends to abandon Ankang or try to develop the combat power to punch through, but today another division arrives in the hex, raising AS to 1450+ with a x4 multiplier. We feel secure here.

Combined Fleet

No change.

[Cribtop]

September 7, 1942

Subs

Escorts of a resource convoy chase S-39 away near Pontianak.

UK DDs DC I-28 off the coast of India, scoring 2 penetrating hits and forcing the sub home.

4th Fleet

TB makes level 5 forts.

SE Fleet

No change.

Southern Army

Today the B-17s get the best of our Nicks. We only lose 1 plane and no pilots, but fail to down any enemy planes.

After days of Glen recon, Cribtop Intel becomes convinced that nobody is home at Perth.

15th Army

No change.

China

No change.

Combined Fleet

We send a CA attached to Tanaka Force home for upgrade.

[Cribtop]

September 8, 1942

This was the quietest day of the war. Seriously, there's really not much to report. Even the daily milk runs were mostly socked in by bad weather.

It's spring break and SXSW time here in Austin, I guess the war took a day off too! [:D]