Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]SOPAC[/font]
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[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]OZ Defense[/font]
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I´ll abandon the smaller industry locations on the coast (10-20 size) while protecting the big ones. I´ve moved all the AA out from Sydney as the 300 Fighters there should be enough to protect the industry.

My "response team" consisting of Americal and 27th US Division and Australian 4th division are put on start mode together with 200 Grant/Lees.

The fleet has evacuated behind Tasmania. They are fully fueled and have AOs with them. They will meet up the Wasp/NC when given opportunity. KB can´t cover everything and he is really light on fighters which will mean poor LRCAP for any invasions.

I´m not going to commit anything before I know what he is doing.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Strategic musings[/font]
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I´m not really getting a good grasp of Japanese intentions.

Phase 1 - PH invasion.
Phase 2 - NORPAC invasion.

So far so good. This makes sense in a way (although I personally don´t think its the best opening from a VP perspective). This was the setup for a strategic bombing campaign. Nothing strange. But then all of the blue...

Phase 3 - Indian invasion.

This I REALLY don´t get at all. [&:] Given the weak Japanese commitment there is no way for him to hold on to what he has taken to the end of 42. A second front is now opened on the other side of the world from phase 2. Not enough troops, not enough navy to really accomplish anything here. But a huge part of the IJAAF is here which cannot substitute the lack of the other two.

This Indian en devour makes absolutely no sense to me. [&:]

Phase 4 - SOPAC. We now have a large portion of the IJN down here. For what? A 3rd front opened as far away as it could possibly have been from the other two? Goals? Strategic bombing? Invasion of New Hebrides and Caledonia? Invasion of OZ? If so, why now? Why didn´t he send the troops used for India here instead?

Add to this the presence of unrestricted troops in China and it makes even less sense. Jeff has now committed forces to every possible theater on the map.

I don´t get it. If I were Jeff I would have sent the navy to India together with what troops I have to stabilize the situation which he is rapidly losing control of. Or do something about NORPAC where Japanese efforts have ground to a complete halt. Besides base VPs (which is not permanent) the NORPAC invasion has gotten him nowhere closer to AV. So basically as it stands now NORPAC is a Japanese failure (unless the base VPs tip the balance to give him AV).

[BBfanboy]

My guess is that he is trying to find the VP balance he needs before year end. (What the heck is the game date anyway - couldn't find it on this page)?

I think he was not expecting you to have so much in India at Calcutta and wanted an easy grab of VPs in that area with a deep probe toward Karachi to see if he could grab that. When it was clear that you could really hurt him there he thought of going of Oz, assuming it would be weak with the troops you have in India.
He could just be looking for strat bombing points so taking Brisbane and bombing from there would make sense.

I don't see any point in him taking the main SOPAC islands, but he may be going for Lord Howe for a search and strat bombing base.

[zuluhour]

Agree with BB, he is looking for AV. I knew in May I was going to "get it", the rapid fall of China and his
perfect air campaign left me hanging. I bet you can look to defend high VP locations to find his intentions
in SoPac. If I read the map right, he takes the island to watch Sydney, then wheels and takes New Caledonia
and the Fiji.

[poodlebrain]

The efforts do not make sense from a war winning perspective. However, there is some logic from a game winning perspective. It appears to me that he has been trying to harvest VPs for an automatic victory rather than create a sustainable empire. Toward that end, VP from strategic bombing and enemy casualties are permanent while VP from bases are transient. The Japanese must hold the bases at specific points in time for them to be worth the effort.

I don't think it is realistic for the Japanese to invade Australia and hold any bases until 1Jan1943. Thus, any LCU are probably intended for Noumea which is a high value base the Japanese could reasonably expect to hold until 1Jan1943. The IJN, and the KB in particular, are in the vicinity looking for permanent VP, and to support an invasion of Noumea is the only thing that makes sense.

If you apply the same thinking to all fronts, what will you expect from the Japanese? China is pretty easy to figure out. Destroying units at a >4:1 ratio and building airfields at captured bases give him the best return on investment from a VP perspective. Your goal should be to minimize his ability to accumulate VP. This might mean putting small speed bumps in every hex to force at least one more turn of combat to slow his transit time rather than allowing him to advance to specific hexes where you try to make defensive stands.

At this point India can't possibly be more than a feint designed to draw your reinforcements. There aren't enough VPs from bases that he can realistically expect to capture to justify the effort. All he can hope for is to get some favorable combat results from his qualitative advantage, but that window is pretty much closed without a grievous error on your part or enormous luck on his.

The NORPAC invasion doesn't seem to have worked as intended from a strategic bombing perspective. However, it can still be the launch point for a game winning amphibious assault on the WC. Since automatic victory becomes possible as of 1Jan1943, the timing for any amphibious assault would not be too far in advance of then as it would be difficult for the Japanese to avoid a <4:1 loss ratio from the inevitable U.S. counterattack.

[JocMeister]

Have to put the kids to bed but thought I should share this before! [&o]

KB fighter strength is down to only 75 fighters! Most bomber losses are in NORPAC where we finally managed to ambush his under escorted bombers. [&o]

+81 VPs today!

[JocMeister]

BB, Zulu and poodle. Really good thoughts. [&o]

I´ll get back to you on it!

[zuluhour]

HUZZAH!!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 17th 1942[/font]
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A very good day although costly!

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NORPAC
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Finally managed to ambush a bombing run. Jeff has stopped hitting Vancouver, Seattle and other AA covered sites. He is now back to hitting the smaller undefended targets. I took a chance and put my CAP at Seattle with range 2. This fatigued my pilots and didn´t get that many planes in the air. But Jeff havn´t been escorting that much lately.

Afternoon Air attack on Bremerton , at 211,52

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 3
B5N2 Kate x 33

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 27
P-40E Warhawk x 29
F4F-3A Wildcat x 6
F4F-3 Wildcat x 5
F4F-4 Wildcat x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Afternoon Air attack on Bremerton , at 211,52

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-Ic Sally x 22

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 27
P-40E Warhawk x 29
F4F-3A Wildcat x 5
F4F-3 Wildcat x 5
F4F-4 Wildcat x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-Ic Sally: 9 destroyed, 4 damaged

Two sweeps also hits. One before and one after trading about 1:1. Its a good haul of VPs for only one repair yard hit.

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India
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Japanese bombers hits one of my "recon" units. This is useless units I just put in forward positions to spot incoming movement.

Jeff moves even further West with parts of his main stack. [&:]

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China
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Panzer Armee Tojo strikes again... [8|]

Ground combat at 74,52 (near Tuyun)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 38399 troops, 496 guns, 1222 vehicles, Assault Value = 1505

Defending force 45154 troops, 153 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1108

Japanese adjusted assault: 1013

Allied adjusted defense: 1327

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
503 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 46 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 45 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Vehicles lost 114 (10 destroyed, 104 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3356 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 283 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 92 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)

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SOPAC
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This is the most interesting area right now. Jeff moves the KB in towards Brisbane. Fighters sweep Brisbane doing...not good!

Morning Air attack on Brisbane , at 96,160

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 35 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 20

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 49
P-400 Airacobra x 11
P-40E Warhawk x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 4 destroyed

Considering this is the KB elite pilots...My guys did really well. Another sweep does about the same and KB fighter strength is now down to only 75 fighters. This is not enough to provide CAP, escort AND sweep.

The KB bombs 2-3 locations around Brisbane scoring a single resource hit. No bombers lost though. I´ve kept the CAP up but added a little extra surprise. Lets see what Jimmie Thach and his VF3 can do if the Japanese show up tomorrow.

Allied ASW forces a Japanese sub to the surface south of Melbourne and sinks it! [&o]

ASW attack near Portsea at 81,172

Japanese Ships
SS I-29, hits 5, and is sunk

Allied Ships
AM Kalgoorlie, Shell hits 1, heavy fires
AM Bunbury, Shell hits 1
AM Mildura

Very close to 1000 VPs for Japanese ship sunk!

The big SCTF previously spotted between OZ and New Caledonia turns back towards the Solomons? Jeff seems to be unloading troops in the Solomons. Perhaps he was worried about their protection from Allied raiders?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Solomons[/font]
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[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]July 18th 1942[/font]
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Two good turns in a row! [&o]

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NORPAC
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I stood down my ranged CAP at Seattle due to fatigue and the sweeps I knew would come this turn. About 60 Japanese Fighters sweep the area around Seattle including 30 Nicks.

This is followed by a nice little freebie! [:)]

Morning Air attack on Edmonton , at 210,35

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 21

Allied aircraft
F2A-3 Buffalo x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 11 destroyed, 1 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Probably a mistake by Jeff and not intentional. VPs are VPs though! [:D]

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India
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Looks like Jeff will give battle! Stay tuned! [X(]

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SOPAC
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Another freebie! No escort? [:)]

Submarine attack near Rennell Island at 113,140

Japanese Ships
xAP Katori Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS KX

Japanese ground losses:
18 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Submarine attack near Rennell Island at 113,140

Japanese Ships
xAP Katori Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS KX

Japanese ground losses:
43 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Still no clue what the heck is happening here! [&:] What is that SCTF doing? Is he actually going to land on mainland OZ?! [X(] My response troops are still packing up.

Jeff hits Toowoomba with Kates from the KB. No damage. [&o]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]SOPAC[/font]
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[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]VPs[/font]
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So, a look at the score. Compared to my game with Tom I´m up 1300 VPs. Quite happy with that as one of my goals for this game was to be more aggressive. [:)] The extra VPs are from Japanese ship and plane losses.

I did some quick (and probably faulty) math and if I can keep up this VP gain pace I´ll end up with about 12300 VPs. That in turn would require Jeff to gain 49200 VPs for AV. Considering he currently have 29000 VP that number feel quite impossible. He would have to gain about 110 VPs/turn. His current pace is 59 if you exclude the Luzon troops.

Looking good for the Allies. Now I just have to stay away from any major FUBARs! [:D]

PS. Just broke the 1000 VP barrier for Japanese ship losses! [&o]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]India[/font]
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Here is Jeffs main stack in India. I hope to give this stack a bad day in 2 turns!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]India[/font]
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I hope to give this stack a bad day in 2 turns!

Do you know if he has brought up AA units with that big stack?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Do you know if he has brought up AA units with that big stack?

Last time I had full intel on that stack is was just one ID (18th?) and a crapload of arty. Like 10 units of them but no AA!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Dogfighting over Brisbane![/font]
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Heavy Japanese sweeps over Brisbane! VF3 gives the Japanese something to think about and we do slightly better then 1:1 today. KB has now lost over 60 Fighters in 2 days! How many of those are elite KB pilots lost?! [&o]

KB is now down to 38(!) fighters. [X(]

[Canoerebel]

Those figher figures have to be radically skewed by FOW. No Japanese player puts the KB in harm's way with minimal fighter protection. The fact that Lowpe is experienced makes that all but a certainty. He's probably got 250 or more fighters available.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Those figher figures have to be radically skewed by FOW. No Japanese player puts the KB in harm's way with minimal fighter protection. The fact that Lowpe is experienced makes that all but a certainty. He's probably got 250 or more fighters available.

I don´t think they are that much off actually! But he knows he is pretty safe from Allied bombers as long as he stays away from Sydney. Biggest AF in range is Brisbane at level 4.

I guess if I´m right he will pull back to Rabaul next turn. [:)]