Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: This is the third IJN sub to be torpedoed by a USN sub in the past ten days.

This is probably a product of different strategies, both of which have merits and demerits.

Dave doesn't like to fly navsearch in an tight environment in which Allied CAP will shoot them down. Consequently, he has spotty detection on Allied TFs and subs.

I'm willing to lose a lot of PBYs in exchange for detection and information (just ask Obvert). I have detection on a lot of his subs at the expense of a lot of aircraft. It helps with ASW and attacks like this one.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Uh oh. This good TF is supposed to be on patrol two hexes from Bima, shielding DS from possible enemy TFs. But this good TF began reacting to enemy MTBs during the turn and ended way the heck over to Ambon. And the sun is up.....

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: What the hey? Another combat TF chasing those MTBs! It's daylight and a total of seven DDs and two CLs are in harm's way.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: It looks like DS is right where it's supposed to be. (The a.m. air phase is just beginning, but already there's been a heckuva lot of knife fighting at arm's length.)

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Bleedover LRCAP from DS. This is the equation that is simply untenable: sweeps vs. LRCAP never work for the LRCAP. Thank goodness that it isn't possible to sweep carrier TFs, or the game would be well and truly broken.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: I like the looks of this! LBA sortying from Soerabaja in modest numbers should get chewed alive by carrier CAP's massive numbers....as long as KB isn't around to lend a hand. I don't think it is but I'm not yet positive.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Escort provided by Franks and Georges looks formidable, but none of the torpedo bomber make it through to drop.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Oscars aren't as formidable. One Francis drops and misses.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Five Francises make drops. Franks (and Georges) on escort are trouble.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Unescorted Francis raid vs. three xAKs and escorting DD Doyle delivering supply to Bima. It looks like all available LRCAP got sucked into the trap at Watampone.

Doyle is a small DD, but those are very important for escort and ASW purposes. I hate losing them as much as the bigger ones.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: I like the math. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: But I'm not very good at math.

I'll take a careful look at the altitude of all these strikes to see if they were unusually low or high. CAP is staggered from 6k to 25k, so I don't think I had holes, but I'll double check.

The math doesn't work here but it's exactly the kind of thing that happened in the war. George and Frank escorts are bad news!

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: It's beginning to seem like there's a bad moon on the rise.

These Zeros probably didn't inflict much damage, but I hope the strike aircraft aren't about to follow.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Unescorted, the math works.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Uh oh.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: None survived to drop (I'll make a careful study of this raid, and all settings, to the one that killed the two CVEs).

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: And now the p.m. phase begins. What? All that was just morning phase? Arg, it's The Longest Day!

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Not enough escorts. None survived to drop.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: The day finally ended. The Longest Day. I haven't looked at the turn file yet, but I hope the twin pain of losing two CVEs will be partially offset by enemy aircraft downed and subs sunk. It won't offset, because I lost the points battle today. One thing is clear - it's a good thing DS & The Herd pulled their heads from that noose without waiting another day. It's time to regroup, re-think, and re-arm.