The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Crackaces]

I'm gonna need them when the time comes to punish Mandalay or Rangoon.

Hmmmm 'Punishing' seems so personal .. [:'(] Maybe prevent force projection from Mandalay or Rangoon is a better euphemism? [8D]

[Canoerebel]

You're right.  It's hard for even 4EB to do any punishing over well-defended enemy airfields.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right.  It's hard for even 4EB to do any punishing over well-defended enemy airfields.

Now when you start getting those Essex class CV's and Hellcats .. there will be some punishment dealt out ...[:D]

[Canoerebel]

7/1/42
 
NoPac:  The Japanese take Dutch Harbor.  Yamato still up here.  8th Marines at adjacent Akutan has repaired all its disabled squads.  The island AV is up to 140, though the Marines still only have 50% supply.
 
CenPac:  Half KB down around Baker Island to pick off a lone xAK carrying supply somewhere.  I don't know where the other Half KB is.
 
SoPac/SWPac:  The Japanese land and take Horn Island with two BBs (one is Yamashiro) present.  Allied carrier force will be ready to move again at Melbourne in about eight days, if necessary.
 
Bay of Bengal:  Ramree airfield goes to level one - wow, that took more than three weeks, which is awfully slow for the Allies.  AV at Ramree up to 380.  Political points up to 1580.  Ouch, I'm going to lament that improvident/ignorant/res ipsa loquitor exenditure for a long, long time.  Marine 'chutes just arrived at Capetown, but I can't buy them until I buy 41st Div.  Res ipsa loquitor.  Negligence per se.  But for a nail, the shoe was lost.  Act in haste, repent in leisure. 
 
China:  Looking good.  John clearly has designs on Chengte, with lots of prep ongoing, plus 100+ bombers hitting the place every day.  Other than that it looks like his ceasefire is in effect. 

[Houtje]

Just remember that in this case, you cannot invoke the ne bis in idem principle: you will get punished again [:)]

Question: what do you think John is doing in NoPac? Is it just preemptive occupation of bases in order to keep you away from northern Japan as long as possible?

[Canoerebel]

I think so, yes.  I'm guessing here, but the combination of factors in play suggest to me he will be reluctant to take on decent garrisons.  I only have 140 AV at Akutan and Cold Bay, but many of John's amphibious operations haven't gone well for him.  He might try to overwhelm through shear might, but we'll have to see.  I'd like to hold Akutan and Cold Bay, but neither is essential to my purposes.
 
John and I have a rich history in NoPac.  In our WitP match, the Allies invaded Hokkaido, Sikhalin Island and the Kuriles in December 1943.  It resulted in a titanic battle that the Allies ultimately won.  So I'm thinking John is sensitive to any aggression I show.
 
That's part of the reason I'm interested in invading the western Aleutians in August or September.  I think a successfull operation would have a psychological effect well beyond the actual importance of the region.
 
 

[witpqs]

AV at Ramree up to 380.  Political points up to 1580.  Ouch, I'm going to lament that improvident/ignorant/res ipsa loquitor exenditure for a long, long time.

PP non carborundum.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

The air war is significant in the negative, IMHO. The Japanese can use their early pilot and airframe quality and quantity advantages to engage the Allies in attritional warfare, which if successful drains Allied pools but also results in an upward spiral for Japanese pilots and a corresponding downward spiral for Allied pilots. When this happens, Japan gets into the mid-war with crazy good pilots that either slow the inevitable Allied air dominance as later generation airframes come online or a pool of Flying Circus types that can be saved for decisive moments later on.

By avoiding this result, Dan has achieved something, IMHO.

Yeah, but it is not all as bad as it seems. Scen 2 give the Japanese the edge by far and it really hurts in 42 as the Allies are so pressed that they have little resources for training. But in the end, the Allied pilot quality tends to grow regardless where by 1944 there are plenty of good Allied pilots. The real problem is the continued lack of decent army fighters more so than pilots. The one aspect that many miss is that the Allies are always getting a steady flow of "named" pilots. Most with decent skills that need only minor training to get up to speed and some with excellent skills. This really makes a difference over time. I don't think this happens for the Japanese player. The excellent pilots that start the game are never replaced. You are right that the process is slower if the Japanese player knows his stuff but in the end the Allied air force is king.

My own experience is that the Allied second generation fighters are so much superior to the Japanese 2nd generation fighters that this really compensates. I would rather have an average pilot in a corsair than an expert in a George-anytime. I know there is so much talk about the great third generation fighters but if the Allied player is doing a workman like job (killing oil production) then they won't be a factor.

I have been through a long cat fight with a great Japanese opponent who knows how to build and use his air force. Still overall I rather have the Allied air force in spite of the Japanese early advantages. It really is better.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most turns the units are fully supplied.  I just checked and found that supply levels range from 95% to 105% of need.

I don't know what would happen if I advanced into the open terrain during the monsoonal period.  I'm erring on the side of assuming getting supply to troops might be tough.

My long term expectation is that supply will flow forward from what will be a line of big bases - Ramree, Akyab, Cox's, Chittagong, Imphal and others - at least when the monsoon ends, but perhaps earlier.

You build Ramree up to max and then shuttle LSTs into it from Calcutta and Chittagong and the supply flows just beautifully through Burma even in the monsoon. All the way into China if the Lashio Road is open. This probably should not happen but it does-so why not...

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Most turns the units are fully supplied.  I just checked and found that supply levels range from 95% to 105% of need.

I don't know what would happen if I advanced into the open terrain during the monsoonal period.  I'm erring on the side of assuming getting supply to troops might be tough.

My long term expectation is that supply will flow forward from what will be a line of big bases - Ramree, Akyab, Cox's, Chittagong, Imphal and others - at least when the monsoon ends, but perhaps earlier.

You build Ramree up to max and then shuttle LSTs into it from Calcutta and Chittagong and the supply flows just beautifully through Burma even in the monsoon. All the way into China if the Lashio Road is open. This probably should not happen but it does-so why not...

I have found that Ramree Island is so significant in this repsect that the IJ have to defend this well in 1942 or face an unstopple onslaught in 1943. The other alternative of Warzzup and Kaylemyo as foundation bases for supplies takes a lot of work, investement in engineers, and a lot of supplies pushed through India. Ramree Island is a single base that will distribute supplies quite nicely as you pointed out.

There is one down side to Ramree . it will draw the attention of the IJN and in the games outside of scenario #1, a lot of IJN assests can be brought to bare at a single point. IMHO) The Allies best bet is a lot of LowNav trained B25C pilots, airgroups with high accuracy, and inland bases like Prome along with any other bases close by to launch overwhelming air strike packages at that vulnerable 10 hex range from Ramree. Otherwise the IJN get in and out untouched. Mines, PT/MTB's, subs alone are just not effective enough to discourage the IJN. I found that only thrashing the BB's where they require long term stays in the pen will do the trick. LowNav attacks with 2E's do the trick at this range.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

The air war is significant in the negative, IMHO. The Japanese can use their early pilot and airframe quality and quantity advantages to engage the Allies in attritional warfare, which if successful drains Allied pools but also results in an upward spiral for Japanese pilots and a corresponding downward spiral for Allied pilots. When this happens, Japan gets into the mid-war with crazy good pilots that either slow the inevitable Allied air dominance as later generation airframes come online or a pool of Flying Circus types that can be saved for decisive moments later on.

By avoiding this result, Dan has achieved something, IMHO.

Yeah, but it is not all as bad as it seems. Scen 2 give the Japanese the edge by far and it really hurts in 42 as the Allies are so pressed that they have little resources for training. But in the end, the Allied pilot quality tends to grow regardless where by 1944 there are plenty of good Allied pilots. The real problem is the continued lack of decent army fighters more so than pilots. The one aspect that many miss is that the Allies are always getting a steady flow of "named" pilots. Most with decent skills that need only minor training to get up to speed and some with excellent skills. This really makes a difference over time. I don't think this happens for the Japanese player. The excellent pilots that start the game are never replaced. You are right that the process is slower if the Japanese player knows his stuff but in the end the Allied air force is king.

My own experience is that the Allied second generation fighters are so much superior to the Japanese 2nd generation fighters that this really compensates. I would rather have an average pilot in a corsair than an expert in a George-anytime. I know there is so much talk about the great third generation fighters but if the Allied player is doing a workman like job (killing oil production) then they won't be a factor.

I have been through a long cat fight with a great Japanese opponent who knows how to build and use his air force. Still overall I rather have the Allied air force in spite of the Japanese early advantages. It really is better.

No doubt - we are in agreement. The mid and late war Allied planes are godlike and will prevail. The only difference is that the early plane and pilot attrition that crimps the Allies and lets Japan grow more uber pilots slows the process down by six months or so. In this game, Dan will achieve dominance quicker is all I'm saying.

[Canoerebel]

7/2/42
 
NoPac:  With Dutch Harbor in their hands, the Japanese now resume bombarding Akutan.
 
CenPac:  Half KB is way down south of Baker Island, not too far from Fiji and Pago Pago.  As the old saying goes, "Keep your friends close and your enemies far, far away from anything useful."
 
Oz:  Damaged AP Zeilin is a few days out of Melbourne.  Lots of enemy activity up the west coast for the past couple of weeks.  Exmouth, Port Headland and Broome are receiving much attention from John.  This, too, is good given my medium term plans.
 
Bay of Bengal:  More troops and supply ashore at Ramree.  AVG/2nd withraws today.  That unit had 71 kills.  I'll withdraw /1st and /3rd tomorrow.
 
China:  Looking good.

[AcePylut]

Hope you released the pilots to gen reserve before withdrawing the unit... [:)]

[Canoerebel]

7/3/42 and 7/4/42
 
Spent Saturday canoeing Talking Rock Creek with my youngest son; then, yesterday, the whole family gathered in Chattanooga, including my daughter who drove down from Knoxville.  A festive time that left me with little opportunity to flip turns and none to post here, but now I have returned.

NoPac:  Enemy carrier TF sighted in the Gulf of Alaska on the 3rd - perhaps the other Half KB that was last seen in the Gilberts a week ago.  Cursor overview doesn't indicate an overwhelming force and I have decent fighter protection (96 aircraft including two Canadian Kittyhawk squadrons that have done some feasting), so I leave most of my shipping in port at Kodiak (a CL being the biggest prize).  I figure the enemy is raiding my shipping lanes (four xAK and a DD are out there), but to my surprise they hit Kodiak on the 4th.  The result is ugly for Japan - roughly 50 Kates downed with no hits scored.  John is probably lamenting the dice rolls, but what's he doing going up against an established (level five) airfield?  I'm getting SigInt of troops prepping for Cold Bay, so it looks like John has big plans for my islands in the upper Aleutians.  Meantime, I am continued with my plans to invade the western Aluetians sometime in September - still no indication of Japanese attention to those bases.

CenPac:  The other Half KB probed nearly as far south of Pago Pago and Fiji but is now moving back.

SoPac/SWPac:  More bombardments of Luganville plus enemy landings at various dot hexes in the Carpathian (spelling?) Sea and at Portland Roads.  Lots of activity on the west coast.

Bay of Bengal:  No enemy attention here whatsoever, which is the most telling aspect of what's going on.  John's expending all of his effort in the relatively worthless vastness of the middle Pacific while he's doing nothing to hinder the Allies at Ramree and Burma. He is sending 18th Div. to Rangoon (per SigInt), but it suits me to have four to six enemy divisions in Burma, because they don't have the high ground.  Mainly, though, John's failure to contest the sea lanes is critical.  He's going to have to come eventually, but far too late.  Those carriers in the Gulf of Alaska and touring Funafuti?  Pfft.  I wonder if, when he finally reacts in the Bay of Bengal, he ends up leaving NoPac without adequate carrier coverage.  That's my fondest hope right now.

China:  Looks good.  Second enemy deliberate attack at Chengte easily repulsed, though forts drop to two.

[paullus99]

CR - I am reminded of excerpts from "Shattered Sword" where is it discussed that many of the additional ships committed to the Midway & Aleutians operations, were there almost as a means for giving them "something to do" rather than sitting in port.

John seems to be flailing around in an attempt to get you to "dance to his tune" hitting inconsequential targets that he has deemed "valuable" without considering if you would. Anything he takes at this point, outside of a full operation against India or even Australia (and those times have past) is just about empty space - since you have no reason whatsoever to commit yourself to defending or even taking back most of these areas until much later in the game (if you want).

Running his carriers ragged like this isn't getting him anywhere & he is blatantly ignoring the biggest thorn in his side (Burma). I've seen what the allies can bring to the table over the next year (north of 10K AV) and he's going to have to defend against that offensive power in some of the worth defensive terrain in the game.

This isn't going to end well for him.

[BBfanboy]

+1 Paullus99.
And further to the discussion above about the excessive Japanese losses in the early air war, loss of 50 Kates and most of the veteran pilots will be felt keenly when the carrier clash finally does occur. John is dulling his sword by whaling on steel and stone.

[GreyJoy]

Agree. John is clearly not seeing the major threat of your Burma initiative and is wasting time and resources (think about the fuel needed to get in the Aleutinas with the KB) against useless targets (really useless!).
 
Why is he always raiding some stupid xAKs around the globe?!

[paullus99]

@GJ - because he feels compelled to constantly add to his "ship sunk" list. He feels that if he isn't doing something offensively, he should at least be laying traps to try to get the allies to counter-attack into his prepared defensive positions (which is probably why he's hitting the Aleutians and New Caledonia - he thinks CR will be compelled to take them back - which isn't the case).

[Canoerebel]

John is tremendously aggressive, which makes for an exciting game.  He's going to find some way to use his assets offensively.  Another telling indicator:  I've known the precise whereabouts of the main part of the KB since late May.  Every single day. He's benefitted in that he's locked the Gilberts from me, but he's spending fuel and eliminating the "force in being" worries I would usually have ("Where are his carriers?  Yikes, they might spring on me at any moment nearly anywhere!").  I doubt he's aware that he's kept the KB in the open for about six weeks.  I doubt he'd care if he was aware.
 
The situation in the Aleutians might get very interesting as time goes on.  But Ramree is my ace in the hole.  An American EAB goes there from Chittagong via APD over the next few days.  I'll be able to buy 41st Div. in four days.  I plan to insert this unit at Ramree (if still open and if John hasn't occupied the adjacent hex in strength) or at Akyab.  At that point, I think the Allies may be read to go on the offensive. 

[paullus99]

CR - given that John doesn't have a lot of experience in the "ground game" or much concern really (his moves in China seem very haphazard), I don't think he truly understands the steamroller that the Commonwealth forces can become.