Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Air Losses: Hey, the air losses look decent. Japan lost much more than I had expected. Allied losses were about what I had expected, perhaps dampened just a bit by the CVE fighters diverting to Koepang.

[BBfanboy]

He lost 179 more aircraft than you - isn't that more points than two CVEs?
Still, he did better on the denominator/numerator 3:1 comparison.

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Celebes: Ooph. Tough losing carriers, especially when they don't die taking down enemy carriers or combat ships. Darn. My bad.

The Superforts do good work vs. Balikpapan oil. With B-29s operating from Assam and from Timor, Dave will have to spread his fighters out, or he'll pay for it.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

He lost 179 more aircraft than you - isn't that more points than two CVEs?
Still, he did better on the denominator/numerator 3:1 comparison.

Yeah, the math doesn't work from an auto victory standpoint. And it doesn't offer solace in the balance of power either. Replacing aircraft is easier than replacing those incredibly useful jeep carriers. Darn.

[Canoerebel]

This is no country for old men, nor for carriers. I don't think the Allies can move further forward. The situation in the DEI will be: build up airfields; perhaps an occasional FT invasion; and be prepared to fend off enemy counterattacks, if possible. DS will (mostly) remain in place, but I'll have to ramp up my thoughts about other, distant forces moving, whenever KB shows up in the DEI.

[BBfanboy]

There's a good chance KB went to Singapore to repair damaged CVs. It is also a good place on the cusp of both IO and DEI intervention. A night port attack by B-29s might be worthwhile.

[Canoerebel]

I don't think it went to Singapore, because that base is under observation from Cocos Island. I think KB is at Manila. (I previously thought Hong Kong was a possibility; hence the Superfort raid there three turns back.)

[Canoerebel]

4/24/44

Final Thoughts: Losing two Allied CVEs is a blow modestly offset by enemy's loss in aircraft, subs and oil points at Balikpapan. All in all it wasn't a terrible day. A bigger cloud that bots the sunlight is the difficulty of making progress in this environment. Enemy LBA is an issue but the bigger one is the total inability to use LRCAP over friendly bases where ships are docked. A major obstacle, that. How to proceed - and where - will get a lot of thought.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. That turn was a blast. On the edge of my seat throughout. Really fun stuff.

[Crackaces]

If the IJN would have coordinated this attack .. it would be a very different story. The numbers do not include damaged platforms that cannot participate next turn or will be ops losses. The IJ has committed quite a few aircraft to sink 2 CVE's and damage the Barnes ... Plus as you state .. the IJ have quite a few targets they need to protect now or you will bomb them into submission.....this is an optimum position .. the enemy has to spread out and you can select where to concentrate

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

Battle of Celebes: With nightfall (ie, a new turn in the inbox), the biggest threat from the enemy should be subs. I think Dave's LBA at Soerabaja will be tuckered out, won't sortie, and that he's unlikely to bring in fresh squadrons. DS is to move two hexes south, providing one more day of coverage for shipping in the Bima vicinity.

The day opens with a new sub attack...and a new base flip up past Watampone (Madjene, in the Celebes). Any way to take advantage of that? Not really, me thinks, except possibly for PBY use.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

Celebes: For the first time in awhile, enemy subs near Koepang, hoping to pick off inbound ships. You never know what might happen, but I like this. It'll be three or four turns before DS comes this way; in the meantime, air and sea ASW can work this area.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

Celebes: You never know.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

Bangkok: B-29s from Chittagong target Manpower (not Light Industry, as I reported last turn).

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

Soerabaja: B-29s from Koepang target this port, where recon shows there are DDs and perhaps a CL or CA (the carriers having departed a week or more back).

What's this?

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44

Soerbaja: Yowza. Blundered into pleasant surprise.

No confirmation that she's gone under. Tomorrow, perhaps 20 B-24s from Koepang will try suicide daylight attack against the port at 5k.

[Crackaces]

I think it was BBfanboy that explained to me that each 500 pound bomb is about 2 sys damage? I think that was AP 500 lb bomb .. the bad thing here is you can't see the fires or smoke to get an estimate .. but assume about 20 - 30 sys damage and she has some major damage ..

[Canoerebel]

In the old WitP, Heavy Fires/Heavy Damage meant a Japanese ship was a goner. That's not true, so much, in AE, but it's worth paying attention to. Here, I think Akagi should be in dire straights. If she has any speed, Dave may try to move her. But she may also be piersie or in the yards, because she took two bombs during the Battle of Timor Sea, three weeks back.

[jwolf]

At minimum Akagi is certainly out of action for a long time (or a longer time than before). No downside there.

[Canoerebel]

4/26/44

Celebes: ASW finds and kills I-169, which had taken a single hit off Koepang yesterday. The kill is confirmed.