ORIGINAL: Buckrock
ORIGINAL: warspite1
My comments referred to post France i.e. the defeat of France. The bottom two sentences in my original quote refers to Directive No.9
I think this Directive probably gives the answer to what Hitler thought possible at the time and does not refer to defeat of the French, but a tactical victory that sees them take French territory along the coast. As said, that was the limit of their realistic thinking. I would not doubt the planners in the Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine developed various plans.
Should the Army succeed in defeating the Anglo-French Armies in the field and in seizing and holding a sector of the coast opposite England, the task of the Navy and Air Force to carry the war to English industry becomes paramount.
The part underlined at the end of the sentence is also relevant here because Lemay has dismissed there being any sort of air war over England in the absence of Sea Lion. That clearly was not Hitler's vision.
I don't see the intended conditions for the directive's execution as relevant in this case, just the timing of when it was issued. My original point was only that some level of planning for how Germany might achieve "the defeat of England" was clearly already underway before the end of 1939 and from that, the idea of sounding out Spain earlier in regard to Gibraltar shouldn't be completely dismissed as a hypothetical possibility. It's almost certain that the real hard-bargaining between Germany and Spain over some Gibraltar action wouldn't have occurred until at least Summer 1940 but an earlier start to the initial dialogue or even just Gibraltar appearing earlier on Germany's official list of "things that may hurt England", might have led to the panzers rolling into Spain in early Autumn rather than late Autumn, or whatever time-line your hypothetical group-think consensus produces.
warspite1
And just to clarify so there is no confusion. I haven't read (or if I have I've forgotten) what studies the army and air force may have carried out in 1939 about taking the war to the United Kingdom. My guess is - and it is a guess - is that any such studies don't assume the defeat of France, rather it assumes war with France is on-going and air and naval war against the UK is to be conducted within that framework.
In the absence of any confirmation otherwise then I am assuming that Directive No.9 reflected those studies and looked at taking the war to the UK, but only in the context that war with France is on-going.
If that is wrong then no problem, and I'd certainly be interested in what they came up with.
This to me is important because a Med-First strategy involving Spain
has to assume France is beaten. Why? Because, as said, if anyone in the German High Command knew what a basket case Spain was (as a result of the devastation of almost three years of civil war) then they would not even be bothering to make enquiries of Spain. This is especially true given the need for Germany not to upset their supplies of Wolfram from the Peninsular.
Of course enquiries
could have been made through diplomatic channels, military attaches, contacts made during the civil war etc etc at any time and I would not be at all surprised if there were such conversations. But as I think we are all agreed, these would be swiftly re-buffed by Spain (accompanied with the usual niceties observed of course) and - in the absence of any Med-first strategy, would NOT be pursued.
But Lemay's hypothesis doesn't mean such "fireside chats". Instead if his hypothesis is to have credence, we need to acknowledge that Hitler and the High Command could have been seriously thinking about a Med-first strategy either pre-war or "shortly after" and that involves the defeat of France.
I maintain that it is
that that is a step too far.
I mean just thinking about it. So September 1939, Hitler and his cronies are chewing the fat.
Hitler: "Ribbentrop, why don't you get on the blower to Madrid and ask if they fancy joining us in the war?"
Ribbentrop: "Are you sure Mein Fuhrer?"
'Comedy Goering': "Yes, they could take Gibraltar and also threaten France from the rear ..... Ooohheerrr Missus!"
Halder: "I'm not too sure about that, after the civil war aren't they a bit screwed and that like?"
Hitler: "Let's ask Canaris... what do you think Admiral?"
Canaris: "Well they have oil reserves of a maximum of 1.5 months, they have a population on the brink of starvation and rely for their oil and food from the USA. They have a poorly equipped army of 250,000, a poor road system, a desperate rail system, a shortage of transport, a hodge-podge of aircraft from different manufacturers and different countries that they have to cannibalise to keep as many flying as possible, and a small, obsolete navy.... Oh and I should add that we rely heavily on the Wolfram that comes from Portugal and Spain so need to ensure those supplies are kept safe."
ALL: "We'll leave it then...."
Hitler: "Anyone fancy a pint?"
; Julia Child
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