Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

4/26/44

Soerabaja: Sorry, guys. You've been chosen for a suicide mission: port strike at Soerabaja at 5k. 17 4EB go in; 7 remain to drop their payloads. It works.

[Canoerebel]

4/26/44

Soerabaja: Persuasive evidence that Akagi sank.

My guess is that the initial port strike caught Dave by surprise, that fires were set aboard the carrier, and that this prevented him from offloading her aircraft complement. (I think fires prevent doing so.)

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I think it was BBfanboy that explained to me that each 500 pound bomb is about 2 sys damage? I think that was AP 500 lb bomb .. the bad thing here is you can't see the fires or smoke to get an estimate .. but assume about 20 - 30 sys damage and she has some major damage ..

If I made the comment about two points of system damage per 500 lb. bomb, it would have been in connection with a non-penetrating hit on a cruiser or BB. That size bomb penetrates the decks of most IJ carriers (Taiho excepted) and should be expected to cause an average of about 7 System damage and about five points of fire damage, plus whatever extra damage is reported.

Given the number of bomb hits Akagi took plus an ASE (equates to about three 1000 lb. bomb hits), I can't see how she survives even with the large port there to help. The fires should prevent her parking pierside but she can disband at anchor or form up in an Escort TF to avoid port strikes. But she's a goner no matter what.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/26/44

Soerabaja: Persuasive evidence that Akagi sank.

My guess is that the initial port strike caught Dave by surprise, that fires were set aboard the carrier, and that this prevented him from offloading her aircraft complement. (I think fires prevent doing so.)

If the strikes all happened same day, there would be no opportunity for Dave to order the planes removed. The AI will only automatically save the aircraft already in the air when the carrier becomes incapable of flying ops. So a few CAP aircraft if they were up, but most of the air group were probably in rest and repair mode.
I think that is a mistake, leaving an air group on the anchored carrier when the Enemy is close enough to strike the port. Perhaps the airfield was overcrowded with Francis cannonfodder and their escorts! [:)]

[jdsrae]

Crunch... I hope CrackSabbath isn’t reading your AAR [:D]

[JohnDillworth]

This is bad luck on your opponents part. I have to think those ships were in a seemingly safe yard for repair. Obviously the shipyard/port is now close to useless. The Level 9 airfield, however, is the key to the areas defense. This whole place is going to be a graveyard for ships and planes. Fun stuff

[Canoerebel]

I followed this same line of attack in a game vs. Miller ten years ago. It was hard going. The biggest difference is that, here, the Allies penetrated deep, fast, and early, before Japan could finally coax them to a halt. They're already ashore on Celebes and near Java, though tenuously.

Soerabaja and Singapore are the only two level nine airfields anywhere close. One option is to bomb one or the other into submission before invading in the vicinity. There are other possibilities.

[RangerJoe]

So, does this attack on the Akagi with its losses make up for the two CVEs and their losses? Plus whatever other damage that was done to the other ships?

He should have unloaded the aircraft when the Akagi made port.

[Canoerebel]

From a victory points ratio standpoint it turned out pretty good, by luck rather than design. From a fighting standpoint, it was a good four or five days.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I think it was BBfanboy that explained to me that each 500 pound bomb is about 2 sys damage? I think that was AP 500 lb bomb .. the bad thing here is you can't see the fires or smoke to get an estimate .. but assume about 20 - 30 sys damage and she has some major damage ..

If I made the comment about two points of system damage per 500 lb. bomb, it would have been in connection with a non-penetrating hit on a cruiser or BB. That size bomb penetrates the decks of most IJ carriers (Taiho excepted) and should be expected to cause an average of about 7 System damage and about five points of fire damage, plus whatever extra damage is reported.

Given the number of bomb hits Akagi took plus an ASE (equates to about three 1000 lb. bomb hits), I can't see how she survives even with the large port there to help. The fires should prevent her parking pierside but she can disband at anchor or form up in an Escort TF to avoid port strikes. But she's a goner no matter what.

First, sorry to use tour name in vain [8D]
Second you are exactly right .. I looked back in the AAR and I hit a BB 20 bombs and your comment was to expect 2 Sys per 500 pound bomb .. that BB although burned to the waterline because of fires .

So we got recorded what to expect vs a Japanese CV’s...

[RangerJoe]

I would rather be lucky than good. [8D] Although being good does help.

[Canoerebel]

4/26/44

Celebes: I've pushed about as far as I can go. DS will retired to Koepang for R&R. Allies will push engineers to the dot bases north of Timor as fast as possible. Building them is a priority. There is an indefinite "line in the sand" that will trigger reaction by DS. I'll definitely work to defend Bima and the bases closer than that. Kolaka, Watampone and Ternate will depend on all the circumstances.

With two CVs and a CVL inbound in about ten days, DS should be pretty secure - as long as its CAP/LRCAP doesn't blunder into hexes that the enemy can sweep.

I don't think Dave will take chances with big ships, so he may be limited to fast transport-type counter invasions.

[CaptBeefheart]

Although the loss of two CVEs stings a bit, I'd say you are doing well in the DEI. You may need to use your heavies for a bit more airfield suppression in the future, however.

Good kit on the Akagi. Next step would be to pull a surprise hit on Manila with B-29s (maybe from a built-up Ternate?).

Cheers,
CB

[Gridley380]

I notice you haven't taken Roti - are you planning to let the troops there starve or mop it up when you have some troops to spare?

[jwolf]

Great job by your Liberators, and definitely worth the sacrifice. I would imagine you are in position now to disable the airfields at Kendari and Ambon; that would sure help your position.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Great job by your Liberators, and definitely worth the sacrifice. I would imagine you are in position now to disable the airfields at Kendari and Ambon; that would sure help your position.

As usual, there are many targets, so priorities are key. 4EB have suppressed Ambon, Kendari and Sorong, from time to time, usually doing only modest damage. When necessary, concentrated bombing will probably work. And ship bombardments are possible at Kendari and Ambon (I wouldn't go so far as Sorong yet). The B-29s will mostly be used for strategic targets.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Gridley380
I notice you haven't taken Roti - are you planning to let the troops there starve or mop it up when you have some troops to spare?

Short term, no plans to take Roti. Mathematics limits what I can do with what I have.

As the Allies have moved forward from Lunga to near Soerabja, a lot of divisions with prep have been used for the main targets (Lunga, Milne Bay, Rabaul, Merauke, Koepang, Darwin). A few have been recycled or otherwise moved to secondary targets (Tassafronga, Lae, Lautem). That's a lot of major targets involving a lot of prep time and some units with secondary prep-time too.

Enemy bases in my rear include Tassafronga, Tulagi, Lae, base near Kaevieng, and Roti. Dave isn't using any of them actively - no air activity (though that can change, a factor kept in mind). Tassa and the base near Kaevieng are being reduced steadily. Lae is a beast with a strong division. It will take a lot of time.

So, do I want to take a division prepped for some future target and switch it to Roti? I don't think so. Maybe much later, after nearby targets like Ambon, Namlea, Kendari, etc. are handled.

[Canoerebel]

4/27/44 and 4/28/44

Celebes: Only one ASW skirmish over these two days - an IJN sub heavily damaged (not sunk) near Endeh. Things seem to have quieted considerably. I think Dave through his best bunch and is now re-grouping. That doesn't mean there aren't subs around, just not as many.

I'd handled most of the orders issued for the turn of the 28th when I noticed enemy ground unit icon midway between Kendari and Kolaka. This resulted in a bunch of new decisions and orders. First, 4EB ordered to strike, with P-38 escorts (weather would prevent that, as it turned out). Second, DS ordered to return to port and replenish everything, especially ASW ammo and missing fighters.

The replenish-everything went well on the 28th, so DS to return to the Banda Sea on the 29th.

I might be wrong - I'll monitor carefully - but I think Dave indeed threw his best punch. It may be possible to reinforce Kolako. And, if not, there may be other helpful steps that can be taken.

CV Bunker Hill and CVL San Jacinto leave Townsville tonight for Darwin, where CV Yorktown waits.

CV Hornet II is disbanded at Sydney, handling SYS damage first. The two damaged CVLs are doing the same at Pearl Harbor.

A CVE TF departs Pearl tonight for SWPac, where it might handle ops against bases like Hollandia (or, if reinforcements are needed, report to Timor).

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
And ship bombardments are possible at Kendari and Ambon (I wouldn't go so far as Sorong yet).

It's the naval bombardments that I had in mind. Even if you can't do it regularly or very often, one or two good bombardments would mean that Dave can't really use the bases for heavy frontline use unless he commits a LOT of resources to guard them -- and if so, those resources (combat ships mostly) would themselves by vulnerable. Similarly, I would imagine that Soerabaja is no longer safe as a port for any really valuable ships and that is a very valuable by-product of your successful air raid there.

[Canoerebel]

You're right. Dave has withdrawn most ships from Soerabaja. He'll be taking similar precautions at other points within range.