Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I think Mindanao is a better target, long term, than Java.  Java offers one advantage - severing Japan from resources.  Mindanao offers two - severing Japan from resources and closing with Japan proper to permit strategic bombing.  If I change my main vector toward Java, I'll find myself far from Japan by the end of the year and that would be bad. 
 
Not that Java isn't a viable and important target, it's just too late for me to shift priorities at this point.  Too, I have an army 100% prepped for Ternate and another 100% prepped for Manado.  I can take both of these under cover of land-based CAP.
 
Finally, Java will be more strongly garrisoned that Mindanao.
 
The Allies had considered switching vectors from north (Mindanao) to west (Java) about three or four months ago, but ultimately decided to head north.  It's too late at this point to change plans.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think Mindanao is a better target, long term, than Java.  Java offers one advantage - severing Japan from resources.  Mindanao offers two - severing Japan from resources and closing with Japan proper to permit strategic bombing.  If I change my main vector toward Java, I'll find myself far from Japan by the end of the year and that would be bad. 

Not that Java isn't a viable and important target, it's just too late for me to shift priorities at this point.  Too, I have an army 100% prepped for Ternate and another 100% prepped for Manado.  I can take both of these under cover of land-based CAP.

Finally, Java will be more strongly garrisoned that Mindanao.

The Allies had considered switching vectors from north (Mindanao) to west (Java) about three or four months ago, but ultimately decided to head north.  It's too late at this point to change plans.

Interesting analysis. Though my opinion is that the Allies can turn Java into a Japanese deathtrap if they start an operation there, you are absolutely right that in your situation it would
mean a shift of direction, with less benefit as you already progressed far beyond the point where changing directions would increase the offensive tempo.

In Millers position and if he can see this developement, I´d evacuate Java though, and only leave a token force there because if you continue he would need these forces elsewhere desperately.
Depends on how you can outguess him. Not attacking Java makes his choice what to defend a bit easier. Thats the disadvantage of offensives with only 1 or 2 directions.

[Canoerebel]

In my WitP game with Miller, I did invade Java.  The invasion occurred in 1943 while the Allies were also moving from Timor into the Celebes and Moluccas.  The RN led a sizeable armada carrying British and Indian troops to the beaches on the south coast of Java.  The Allies got ashore and ended up taking some three or four cities.  Miller reacted with great fervor and hostility, nearly destroying the RN in the process and eventually booting the Allies from Java. 
 
But that was well, well worth it for the Allies, because it served as a massive distraction.  While Miller was so focused on Java, the Allies waltzed north and made startling progress toward the Philippines.
 
From that experience I learned that Miller really, really obsesses over Java and its oil.  I think he'll have it carefully guarded in our game.  However, if recon shows Java is not well-protected, the Allies can move that way at a propitious time.

[JohnDillworth]

In my game against the AI I took Java and it was a great staging area for the rest of the war. Plenty of fuel, plenty of air fields and a ship repair facility (the biggest bonus)! IT was a great place to ship millions of tons of supply from cape town the middle east My bombers quickly neutered Singapore and closed the straits to Burma. It also pretty much shuts down Borneo and you can pick off the good bases one at a time. On the other hand, a strong position in the Philippines denies the Japanese player all the oil/fuel anyway, and you really don't have to fight in Java if you don't want to.
my 2 cents

[Canoerebel]

I agree, John.  Java would make a great base - and really hurts the Japanese - but the Allies need to be working towards Java by early '43 and ought to be landing there by early '44.  IE, it should take a vast amount and length of preparation to really do a Java campaign justice.
 
Since it's already '44 and since all my troops are prepping for other destinations, I feel sure it's too late for me to shift to Java.  So "Mindanao Bound!" is our cry.

[wpurdom]

Sounds like good analysis to me as long as every couple of weeks you try to recon it as well as you can. Java is likely to be well-defended unless/until your opponent feels he desparately needs the troops in the Philippines or SE Asia.

Also thorough recons might distract your opponent, if your not actually invading.

[Canoerebel]

1/26/44 and 1/27/44
 
Point and Click:  After several month's absence, the KB showed up - bringing massed air squadrons to bear on a single point - Allied shipping at Morotai.  The results were mixed, but damage incurred will hamper the Japanese strategically while the Allies probably won't be affected strategically.

The Allies sent out the first strikes:  27 SBD from Morotai torched four unprotected AKL near Manado.  Then 24 SBD escorted by 100 high-quality fighters squared off against the KB - or a stout Mini-KB - and a CAP of 130 fighters.  The Allies lost 18 planes, the Japanese 3.  No hits scored.

First day Japanese strikes:  150 IJN fighters escort 41 strike aircraft against shipping at Morotai.  The CAP of 81 fighters downs 15 aircraft while losing 7.  Damage to ships:

     xAK John Alden, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     LSI(L) Dunedin Star, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     xAK John T. McMillan, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
     xAK Kiangsu, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     AK Antrim, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk

A second strike of 29 fighters and 28 strike aircraft faces 13 fighters protecting ships at Lobolata (adjacent to Morotai).  The Japanese lose 4 aircraft, the Allies none, with the following damage:

     xAP B. F. Shaw, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     AM Effective, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Allied First-day PM strike:  27 SBD do the following damage to shipping near Manado:

     xAKL Tsuneshima Maru, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAKL Konei Maru, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     xAKL Fukkai Maru, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
     xAKL Genmei Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAKL Nanko Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
     xAKL Ryuto Maru, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
     xAKL Nissyo Maru, Bomb hits 1,  on fire

Then 21 bomb-equipped TBF square off against 12 Zero.  Three TBF are downed, but the rest manage this:

     xAKL Nissen Maru #2, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     xAKL Tenshin, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
     xAKL Tsuneshima Maru, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage

First-Day PM IJN Strikes:  90 fighters and 70 strike aircraft vs. a CAP of 50 fighters.  The Japanese lose 16 aircraft, the Allies one.  The damage:

     CL Mobile, Torpedo hits 1
     DE Fleming, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     AK Lyra, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy damage
     xAK John Carroll, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AK Naos, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy damage
     xAK Josiah Royce, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires

Then 28 Zero and 50 strike aircraft vs. 9 CAP.  IJN lose 5 aircraft, Allies none.  Damage:

     DD Talbot, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     DD Gilmer, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     LST-40, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     SC-749, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     xAK Elisavet, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
     xAP B. F. Shaw, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
     xAP Cape Mendocino, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
     AM Chief, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
     xAP Golden Eagle, Kamikaze hits 1,  on fire

Japanese second-day A.M. attack:  66 Zero and 47 strike aircraft face 41 CAP over Morotai.  IJN loses 17 aircaft, the Allies 2, for this damage: AK Naos, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk.

Then 35 Zero and 4 Jill face 16 fighters over Lobolata, the IJN losing one and the Allies two, with the following:  DD Talbot, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk.

Allied second-day A.M. attack:  51 unescorted SBD face 36 Zero on CAP; 12 SBD are flamed, but accomplish this:
     CVE Unyo
     CVE Chuyo, Bomb hits 1
     CVE Shinyo, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     CVE Hosho
     CVE Kaiyo
     CVE Taiyo

Then, at a cost of five aircraft 16 fighters and 15 SBD contribute this:

     CVE Taiyo, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires
     CVE Chuyo
     CVE Shinyo,  heavy fires
     CVE Kaiyo

Next, at a cost of two aircraft, 13 TBF and 9 fighters contribute this:

     CVE Shinyo, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CVE Taiyo, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires
     CLAA Tenryu
     CVE Kaiyo

Japanese second-day P.M. strikes:  70 fighters and 45 strike aircraft vs. 21 fighters, the IJN losing 9 and the Allies 2, with this:

     LSI(L) Dunedin Star, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     AK Lyra, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     AK Sterope, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
     xAK Josiah Royce, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Lawrence, Bomb hits 1,  heavy fires

Analysis:  The IJN probably lost far more aircraft than advertised, but scored decently against merchants with a few hits against smaller combat ships.  Any decline in lift capacity is a blow to the Allies, so the damage will be felt.  The Japanese, on the other hand, should have three CVE out of commission and have given away the location of a sizeable group of carriers - not an insignifcant matter given the upcoming Allied invasion of Ternate. Finally, the "somewhat" effectiveness of Allied strike aircraft against the carriers and those AKLs may help dissuade Miller from using them in such proximity to Morotai, and that would be just fine with me.

Burma:  The Japanese army continues to retreat toward Tavoy rather than Bangkok, a situation that has me totally mystified.  The Chindit assault on Raeheng didn't accomplish anything.

[Canoerebel]

Now that I've seen the turn file, an update regarding Japanese force size and disposition:
 
1.  The KB is stationed near Talaud Island, while a Mini-KB is providing a cover for transports at Ternate.  I think the Japanese are bringing in supplies.
 
2.  Allied transports for the Ternate invasion continue to load - the Allies will actually be able to carry roughly 1800 AV in the first wave.  D-Day may be as soon as eight days away.
 
3.  Miller is landing reinforcements at Bangkok, so he'll have armies both there and at Tavoy.  But unless he signficinatly reinforces Bangok he may have miscalculated, because the Allies have two fresh divisions on the way to augment their army.  Also, Bangkok, like Rangoon, can be bypassed, isolated, and bombed to death.  So if Miller doesn't look at the map very carefully and plan accordingly, he may find himself in a fix in a few weeks.
 
4.  The ceasefire has ended in China with Japanse units moving (mainly retreating to consolidate) all over the place.  I expect to find Liuchow and Hengyang vacant.  If so, the Chinese will pour through and move on Kukong and Kanhsien.  The Allies will also try river crossing against Sian and Ankang in the north.  Nanning, bolstered by the troops recently at Liuchow, won't be possible now.

[witpqs]

So, if you advance far enough down the Malay peninsula and build big airbases there, and you already have (and get more) big airbases on the other side of Borneo, you cut off oil from Sumatra, Java, and Borneo near completely then, right?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

So, if you advance far enough down the Malay peninsula and build big airbases there, and you already have (and get more) big airbases on the other side of Borneo, you cut off oil from Sumatra, Java, and Borneo near completely then, right?

The grand plan is for the Burma army to head east to the coast of the South China Sea in Vietnam; the DEI army will head west or northwest to take ports on the South China Sea in the Philippines and/or north Borneo. The combination of the two movements will choke Japanese shipping from the DEI.

Of course, the Allies will look for other opportunities, such as moving down the Malay Peninsula, but that's not the preferred vector at this time.

[John 3rd]

Dan,
 
If I was in Miller's shoes I might try something wild (surprise).  Watch your left flank.  Java could serve as a perfect platform to lop off your salient once you have moved far enough forward.  In fact, I might ENCOURAGE your move into the southern Philippines and then try to retake Timor.  This is probably a wild thought but it jumped out at me as I caught up with the AAR.
 
.02...
 

[Canoerebel]

It took me hours to analyze the map, the disposition of forces and availability of reinforcements, and possible Japanese moves.  The end result could mean a sharp engagement if the Japanese carriers and transport fleets remain in the area - or much ado about nothing should Miller retreat.  The plan:
 
1.  About a half-dozen six-boat PT TFs will hit Ternate, where Miller has/had many transports and some CVE.  Two small CL/DD forces - one from Boela and one from Ambon - will also head that way.
 
2.  Two or three PT TFs will patrol the waters in the vicinity of the current locations of the KB.
 
3.  The two Allied CA/DD TFs at Morotai will head south at flank speed, as will most of the merchant shipping there.
 
4.  Allied 4EB will hammer Ternate's airfield (planning to keep it shut down) and port (hoping to hit any damaged CVEs that sought refuge there).  I also hope the 4EB will "use up" the Japanese CAP.
 
5.  I've loaded the forward bases - and there are a bunch of them (Boela, Ambon, Namlea, Oti, Lobalato, Morotai, one near Morotai with a name that escapes me, and Sorong all are level three to seven, and Talaud Island, a level two) - with top-notch fighters and fresh SBD, TBF, and Beufort squadrons.  Since I have three Air HQ in the area, all of the torpedo planes can carry torps.
 
6.  The bulk of the Ternate invasion armada will weigh anchor at Darwin and move north toward Taberfane Island.  I'd like to time their arrival at Ternate with the withdrawl of the Japanese carriers.

[JohnDillworth]

It took me hours to analyze the map, the disposition of forces and availability of reinforcements, and possible Japanese moves. The end result could mean a sharp engagement if the Japanese carriers and transport fleets remain in the area - or much ado about nothing should Miller retreat. The plan:

1. About a half-dozen six-boat PT TFs will hit Ternate, where Miller has/had many transports and some CVE. Two small CL/DD forces - one from Boela and one from Ambon - will also head that way.

2. Two or three PT TFs will patrol the waters in the vicinity of the current locations of the KB.

3. The two Allied CA/DD TFs at Morotai will head south at flank speed, as will most of the merchant shipping there.

4. Allied 4EB will hammer Ternate's airfield (planning to keep it shut down) and port (hoping to hit any damaged CVEs that sought refuge there). I also hope the 4EB will "use up" the Japanese CAP.

5. I've loaded the forward bases - and there are a bunch of them (Boela, Ambon, Namlea, Oti, Lobalato, Morotai, one near Morotai with a name that escapes me, and Sorong all are level three to seven, and Talaud Island, a level two) - with top-notch fighters and fresh SBD, TBF, and Beufort squadrons. Since I have three Air HQ in the area, all of the torpedo planes can carry torps.

6. The bulk of the Ternate invasion armada will weigh anchor at Darwin and move north toward Taberfane Island. I'd like to time their arrival at Ternate with the withdrawl of the Japanese carriers.

Love the PT boat moves. They might serve as either a warning or a tripwire. If Miller chooses to stand, and his recent reactions and resupply indicates he might, there could be a sharp fight ahead. As you expect it will be a battle of the KB vs. your long range cap. This one might be for all the marbles. It is going to be 70 , sunny and dry in the Northeast for the first time in half a year, but I will be checking in on this.
good luck!

[Canoerebel]

1/30/44 and 1/31/44
 
After issuing orders for aircraft, PT TFs, and two combat TF to "flood the zone" around Ternate, I received this email from Miller:  "What a depressing turn for the IJN........."  Now, every Allied player loves to get a message like that, so I opened the file expecting to find some nice, juicy Allied strikes.  There were a few nice strikes, but nothing to really justify that kind of email, unless there was more to the turn than met the eye.
 
Ternate:  The PT boats went in first and tangled with a CL/DD TF.  A few PT boats went down without inflicting any damage against the combat ships.  One PT boat put a TT into an xAK.  Next came the Allied CL/DD TFs, which brushed aside the Japanese combat ships (both sides had two ships taking moderate damage).  The Allied combat ships then savaged three Japanese transport TFs, sinking at least two DD and eleven xAK.  Finally, massed waves of Allied bombers came in and did essentially zilch.  The Allies lost 90 aircraft over two days and I don't recall a single hit - miserable performance.  My best guess for the passion Miller expressed in his email is that he really needed those xAKs to deliver supplies to Ternate.
 
Ternate Invasion force:  The amphibious TFs will rendezvous just north of Boela over the next two days.  D-Day for Ternate is three or four days away.  The invasion will be covered by 10 CVE and 4 CVL.  The KB has withdrawn to Babeldaob and I hope Miller will pull it back into the Philippines (he knows Allied 4EB can hit Babeldaob).
 
After Ternate:  Once the Allies take Ternate (easier said than done), I may bypass Manado, which Miller just reinforced, and make the big push for Mindanao.
 
Burma:  The Allise have a three-prong advance:  A relatively modest "check" force to keep the Japanese army at Tavoy in place; another modest force moving toward lightly-held Raeheng; and the bulk of the army moving towards Bangkok.
 
China:  The Allies should take Hengyang tomorrow and Liuchow in three days.

[Canoerebel]

2/1/44 and 2/2/44

Operation Kennesaw Mountain (invasion of Ternate):  This operation is underway, with D-Day scheduled for tomorrow for the fastest transports (APA and the like).  Here's the skinny:

Opposition:  The garrisons consists of 40k troops - about two divisions that should be short on supply.  The airfield is closed, but plenty of big bases not too far away, Manado being the best.  The KB is parked at Babeldoab and there's a decent chance Miller will commit, if not this two-day turn then thereafter.

Protection:  One four-CVE TF will follow the ships to Ternate; two four-CVE TFs and a four-CVL TF will take position two hexes east of Ternate. A one-BB TF will bombard, a one-BB TF will escort, and three CA/DD TFs will escort.  LRCAP will be provided from Talaud Island, Morotai, Lobolato, Oti, and an island-base whose name escapes me.  The CVE/CVL TF will get some LRCAP from Boela, Sorong, and Namlea.  Protection will probably not be sufficient if Miller "floods the zone" with carrier- and land-based air.

Invasion Force:  The first wave consists of three divisions plus another equivalent.  Might not be enough for the job.  Two-plus divisions are in reserve at Darwin.

Subwars:  PF escorting part of the invasion TF ripped apart two subs north of Boela.  PF are far more potent than even DE, which claimed a sub also.

Burma:  Troops on the march.

China:  A large Chinese army is departing Hengyang for Kukong (and then Kanhsien).  This is the main prong of the Chinese attack.  Another Chinese army attacked across-river at Sian, got a 2:1 and dropped forts from 5 to 3.  Miller has reinforcements coming, so it's a race now to see what happens.

[Canoerebel]

2/3/44 and 2/4/44
 
The first two days of landings at Ternate went well.  Highlights:
 
1.  No appearance by KB or combat ships, meaning the invasion probably caught Miller by surprise.
2.  No mines.  A CD unit is present but didn't do any damage to speak of.
3.  1250 AV came ashore in great shape and found the garrisons consists of a regular division, a guards division, and a mixed brigade - about 790 AV.  The Japanese had better be low on supply or this will be a long, tough siege.
4.  Landings appear to have caught KB on wrong foot - sighted well northwest of Babeldaob as though headed for Philippines.  Even if Miller recalls the carriers, I don't think they would arrive on the scene quickly enough to mess with the Allies tomorrow, except at long range.
5.  Two big TFs with 9th Oz Division and two brigades will arrive tomorrow.  If these landings go well, the Allies should end tomorrow with nearly 2,000 AV ashore.  Since gracious plenty supplies have landed, the Allies should be in great shape.  Tomorrow is the key day.
6.  Allied LBA savaged the airfield at Manado.  I hope it's shut down (though recon reports just 49% damage).  LBA will continue to hit the field.
7.  Already two big APA TFs have unloaded all troops and so can retire to Boela.  Getting APAs out of harm's way will be a tremendous relief.  I cannot spare these ships.
8.  Three four-CVE TFs and one four CVL-TF will unite and remain two hexes SE of Ternate, protected by a one-BB TF and a CA/DD TF.
 
Things look good at the moment.
 

[Canoerebel]

2/5/43 and 2/6/43
 
Ternate:  Miller didn't commit the KB, combat ships, or LBA, so the landings at Ternate have gone as smooth as possible.  The entire operations must've caught him by surprise and on the wrong foot.  Nearly the entire Allied army and plenty of supplies are ashore (see summary below), so the Allies are going to "get while the getting is good."  I'm pulling everything out tomorrow in anticipation that a thoroughly aroused Japanese military will strike.  Here's what the contest at Ternate looks like:
 
Ground combat at Ternate (78,102) 
Japanese Bombardment attack
Attacking force 18616 troops, 236 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 769 
Defending force 51564 troops, 1034 guns, 1011 vehicles, Assault Value = 2029
 
Japanese ground losses:
      22 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled 
 
Assaulting units:
    24th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    52nd Division
    2nd Guards Division
    3rd IJN Special Cst Gun Bn /74
    63rd Field AA Battalion
    68th JAAF AF Bn
    65th Field AA Battalion
    13th Field AF Construction Battalion
    62nd JNAF AF Unit /111
    66th Field AA Battalion
    2nd Base Force
    30th JNAF AF Unit
    66th JNAF AF Unit /108
    64th Field AA Battalion
    59th JNAF AF Unit /114
 
Defending units:
    18th Australian Brigade
    104th Combat Engineer Regiment
    29th British Brigade
    II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
    33rd Infantry Division
    9th Australian Division
    1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
    25th Australian Brigade
    2nd USMC Engineer Regiment
    185th Infantry Rgt /178
    6th British Bde /169
    2/13th Field Regiment
    108th Tank Attack Regiment
    2/16th Field Regiment
    XI US Corps
    134th Field Artillery Battalion
    II Australian Corps /1
 
Burma:  A Japanese counterattack at Raeheng failed, probably due to lack of preparation.  The Allies have reinforcements on the way and should take this base within a week.  A small Allied army will then move forward from Raeheng, hopefully to threaten Bangkok from the north while the main force moves in from the west.

[Canoerebel]

Didn't get a chance to play much over the weekend, so I'm just now evaluating the Allied position in the DEI and issuing orders for the next few turns:
 
1.  The Allied force at Ternate (2050 AV) will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  I expect this to be a tough battle, but the Allies may be able to to take the base within a reasonable time without reinforcing (if, as I believe, the Japanese are low on supply).
2.  In anticipation of a large, coordinate Japanese counterattack, all Allied transports, carriers, and combat ships will leave and move to Boela or points south.
3.  Allied LBA will continue to divide attention between Manado and Ternate.  Both are shut down, but I won't be surprised if Miller does his best to get Manado reopened.
4.  Allied engineers will land at several of the small (but potentially large) dot hexes NW of Namlea and just west of Morotai (near Manado) to support future operations.
5.  All signs continue to point to a serious cruiser shortage for the IJN.
6.  Once Ternate falls, I don't think the Allies will move immediately on Manado.  Instead, I'm thinking of a feint toward Mindanao with a major landing at a small Celebes base near Kendari. 

[Canoerebel]

2/7/44 and 2/8/44
 
Ternate:  Very good signs here.  Back-to-back 1:1 deliberate attacks drop forts from 3 to 2 and inflict more casualties on the IJA than on the Allies.  I'm nearly positive the Allies can take the base without reinforcing.  I have one reinforcing unit on the way from Darwin.  I'll stop it at Boela until I see whether it's needed.  All other Ternate-prepped troops will begin prepping for another target.  That means I need to decide what's next - Mindanoa or a surprise attack on the peninsula above Kendari.
 
SWPac:  The Allies are prepping modest armies to invade Port Moresby (lightly garrisoned; should be easy) and Koepang (modestly garrisoned; don't know if the IJA is short of supplies or not).  Both of these invasions could take place before the next major Allied assault.
 
Burma:  Three-prong advance continues: toward Raeheng, Bangkok, and Tavoy.  The first two compliment each other as Raeheng presents a route that threatens Bangkok's rear from the north.
 
China:  The big Chinese army (5100 AV) should arrive at Kukong in three or four days.  The Chinese army at Sian was getting the best of the Japanese army, but took such high losses that I'm going to cancel that offensive.  The Chinese army moving on Nanning should arrive there in the next two or three days.
 
Grand Tactics:  Miller has really presented a well-coordinated, well-though-out, tenacious defense in the DEI.  My hat's off to him.  In part, this is because he's very gifted at tactical defense.  In part it's because he has experience defending in this area because our WitP game followed a very similar path.  But he's also been "just ahead of me" throughout the campaign, managing to garrison bases (like Morotai and Dadjangas) just before I was able to move on them.  The Allies are making steady progress and have seriously attritioned the Japanese.  I think the war is going pretty well.
 
From my perspective, what could Miller do to most seriously impede the Allies at this point?  Bearing in mind that there are certain factors in our game that won't be present in others (the massive Allied transport and carrier losses, and the massive IJN battleship and cruiser losses, for instance), here are my thoughts:
 
1)  The Allies are so short on troop transports that a major loss now would seriously impede my progress.  To Miller it must seem that the Allies have an inexaustible supply, but they don't.  APAs are worth their weight in gold - knock out 10 to 15 and it would dramatically reduce Allied lift capacity and increase the time (and exposure) of Allied ships at beachheads.  If Miller were omnipotent (he's not, but he's quite capable) he'd know this and would concentrate on attritioning these ships whenever possible.
2)  Prep-time seriously impedes Allied progress more significantly than Japanese troop concentration.  Allied LBA and troop numbers allows me to reduce and take any base within reasonable range.  But it takes time to prep an army, transport it to an objective, take the objective, prep for a new base, and arrange transport either to a rear staging area or from that forward base.  Therefore, it doesn't make sense for Miller to over-stack any particular base.  He just needs a large enough garrison to force the Allies to commit in a big way.  For most bases a garrison of about 30k to 40k troops (say a division plus a little more) should be sufficient.  When a defense of this sort is presented in depth, the Allied advance will be slow and methodical, giving the Japanese time to prepare defenses further back.  Miller has done an outstanding job in this regard.
3)  Miller still has a decisive edge in carrier numbers.  The "fleet in being" concept is very, very effective and Miller has used this to maximum effect.  However, he can't be everywhere all the time and just missed a good chance to hit the relatively exposed Allied invasion ships at Ternate.
4)  As noted previously, a lengthy, hard-fought campaign of attrition should eventually "break the backs" of the Japanese.  Since we're playing AE and since this is Scenario Two, I'm not sure how much more damage Miller can absorb before his back is broken.  I think, but I'm not positive, that I'm pretty close with respect to Japanese combat ships.  But Japanese carriers and LBA remain very potent.

[Q-Ball]

Don't forget in your calculations on Thailand, Miller now has access to the RTA. They are poor troops with crappy generals, but should be prepped for defensive positions, and trained into the 50s, so they are worth something. They are also fresh. The RTA is 6 divisions, about 1500 AV total.