See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[apbarog]

8 Jul 43

I had recently mined the hex just west of Nagasaki. Nagasaki seems to be a busy port for Walker, so I figured that I'd give it a try. Today two subchasers went through the hex and started clearing the mines. No luck this time.

I sent a DMS into Banjoewangi to sweep some mines, and it did.

The big strikes finally flew to Makassar, and in the "right" order. 2 squadrons of Corsairs from Denpassar swept, taking some losses, against 15 Zeros and 36 Tojos. Then 21 P-38Hs from Waingapoe swept dowing a few more enemy. After that, waves of heavy bombers arrived, finding a much reduced CAP. Damage to the airfield was moderate, but many enemy planes were destroyed on the ground.

Total air losses (losses on the ground):

Topsy 16 (16)
Betty 13 (13)
Tojo 11
A6M5 Zero 8 (1)

F4U-1 9
P-38H 3

A good day. Walker, as expected, appears to have pulled out all of the planes he could from Makassar today.

The invasion armada will move to a couple of hexes south of Makassar. They haven't been spotted so far. I set 2 carrier's bombers to have a secondary mission of hitting Makassar's airfield. B-25s from Timor will also hit the airfield. The heavies and P-38s on Timor will hit Kendari today. I'm seeing 41 fighters and 27 bombers there. If Makassar and Kendari are cleared of planes and damaged, the air threat to my invasion will be much reduced. The sub threat, of course, remains high.

Five destroyers will go to to Ambon from Timor, and see if they can catch some shipping there.

Recon of Taberfane shows much reduced number of troops. Walker has been getting troops out of there effectively, either by air or by sub, or both. Topsys at Makassar shows that he has probably been doing the same thing at Koepang. I do still see over 200 vehicles at Taberfane. Can't fly those out.

So the Makassar invasion shipping will be spotted in the next turn and the landing will occur in the turn after that.

[apbarog]

9 Jul 43

DMS Hovey swept some more mines at Banjoewangi. I spotted PT boats on the west side of Java. Could be coming here.

5 US destroyers run into Ambon. First they find a tiny ACM, and quickly sink the minetender. Then they find a patrol boat escorting 3 xAKLs. The ships were docked at first. 2 xAKLs were sunk, with the other 2 ships heavily damaged and with heavy fires. No troops loaded on the ships. Then the destroyers find I-169 at Ambon, pummel it mercilessly in the shallow water, forcing the sub to surface. The 5 inch gunned destroyers finish off the sub.

Near Madjene, sub Lapon spots a tiny minesweeper escorting an ACM. The sub fires on the minesweeper, and gets one hit. I suspect that these ships just left Makassar.

Sub Cisco spots an xAKL task force east of Ominato, but torpedoes miss.

Sub Stingray is spotted by E boats escorting some big xAKs while between Formosa and the Philippines. The sub takes moderate damage and sets course for Darwin.

P-40s sweep Buin in the Solomons but finds no CAP.

Makassar is swept by P-38s but no CAP is found.

Most of the planes ordered to hit Kendari didn't fly, including the sweepers. 9 B-17s and 25 B-24s did fly, and some were lost, with 45 Zeros on CAP. Damage to the airfield was good, however, with a few planes destroyed on the ground.

B-25s hit Makassar's airfield, destroying more planes on the ground.

Walker finally gets a bit aggressive with his planes at Soerbaja, with Zeros and Oscars sweeping Denpasar. Japanese losses are higher than Allies. Kittyhawks, Warhawks, and Corsairs were on CAP. The F4Us did the best, as expected.

I ordered 2 US carriers to strike Makassar's airfield if no naval targets were spotted. More enemy planes destroyed on the ground, but minimal damage to the airfield.

Total air losses for today (on the ground):

14 Zeros
10 Oscars
8 Topsys(8)
7 Bettys(7)
2 Tojos(2)
1 Thalia(1)

5 B-24s
4 Kittyhawk IIIs
3 P-40Ks
2 B-17s

Back on New Guinea, the enemy is finally try‌ing to attack out of its isolated pocket. From the numbers, it looks like Walker attacked with smaller units, while the 1st Infantry Division just arrived in the hex today. It goes very badly for him. Hard to say if he'll try again with the division. I have an armor unit moving here from Terapo. It needs about another week to arrive.

Ground combat at 97,126 (near Terapo)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2252 troops, 11 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 260

Defending force 3547 troops, 48 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 113

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 391

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
705 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 47 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
Sasebo 6th SNLF
1st Division
32nd Nav Gsn Unit
5th Air Div /1

Defending units:
158th(Sep) Infantry Regiment

****************************

Today Makassar and surrounding bases will be invaded. US carriers will move just east of Makassar. Several ASW task forces start patrolling to the west and south of Makassar. Almost every hex has an enemy sub in it, so they'll find some, guaranteed.

Makassar troops will be bombed, and Kendari's airfield will be hit again.

[apbarog]

10 Jul 43

Some ASW activity, but most of the enemy subs seem to be forming a barrier to Java, not the Celebes.

Palopo is invaded. It is undefended.
Madjene is invaded. It is undefended.
Para Pare is invaded. It is undefended.
Makassar is invaded. At first glance, when the troops started to land, I found the 48th Infantry Division and 9th Infantry Regiment at Makassar, and that looked to be a problem.

At Kendari, Hellcats swept and found 35 Zeros. Then P-38Gs swept. 19 Zeros and 7 F6Fs are lost. Then heavy bombers arrive, and some planes are destroyed on the ground.

I tasked 2 US carriers to bomb enemy troops at Makassar. Results were ok.

The mandatory enemy bombardment of my troops landing at Makassar show many units there, but combat values show that some are just fragments or shells of the unit. The 48th Infantry Division showed a combat value of 0. The 9th Infantry Regiment is there also, but not in strength. There are many base units here, at least parts of some. It is clear that some of these units were lifted from Koepang.

I think that the US 41st Infantry Division will take the base. I am doing an artillery attack today, and will do so again tomorrow. This will allow me to take the other bases to the north, cutting Makassar off completely. I will land an armor unit there today or tomorrow.

US carriers remain in place next to Makassar. I see no threatening enemy activity.

[apbarog]

10 Jul 43 - Upcoming Events

Here's a list of notable divisions, where they are, what they are prepping for, and current prep levels. As you can see, I only need to wait for my APAs to return to base and start loading for the next event. Koepang could go right away. So could Kolaka, with troops for Kendari landing at Kolaka as soon as the base is taken, and walking to Kendari, to save the disruption. Prep for Boela, Ternate, and Balikpapan will be at acceptable levels following those actions. The juggernaut is rolling. When and where will Walker intervene?

US 7 Division at Fenton prepping for Manado with 40 prep
US 24 Division at Darwin prepping for Koepang with 100 prep
US Americal Division at Townsville prepping for Boela with 59 prep (recovering)
US 1 Cavalry Division at Luganville prepping for Torokina with 15 prep
US 32 Division at Dili prepping for Kolaka with 65 prep
US 1 Marine Division at Darwin prepping for Koepang with 100 prep
US 2 Marine Division at Waingapoe prepping for Ternate with 57 prep
US 3 Marine Division at Townsville prepping for Balikpapan with 64 prep (recovering)
US 4 Marine Division at Luganville prepping for Buin with 15 prep
Brit 18 Division at Lautem prepping for Kendari with 31 prep
Indian 17 Division at Diego Garcia prepping for Soerbaja with 50 prep
Indian 5 Division on ships prepping for Soerbaja with 31 prep
Chinese 5 Corp on ships prepping for Soerbaja with 47 prep

I'm not saying that all of these units will go to the locations they are prepping for, but these are the current plans.

[apbarog]

11 Jul 43

Lots of ASW activity. US carrier planes spotted and attacked more than a few enemy subs near Makassar, and got hits on quite a few, at least 5.

In the middle of the South China Sea, sub Pompon spots a big xAK task force, gets one hit on one, but it's a dud.

Cruisers Wichita, Minneapolis, Trenton, and Raleigh bombard Makassar destroying a couple of planes, but damaging many planes: Tojos, Bettys, Emilys, Sallys, Topsy, and Zeros. 463 casualties caused, and moderate airfield damage. Interesting to note that other damage was 1 manpower, 1 resource, 432 fires caused, and minor port damage.

Watampone is invaded. It is northeast of Makassar. It is unoccupied and will be taken tomorrow. This will isolate Makassar and force enemy troops to surrender when they are defeated.

At Kendari, heavy bombers hit the airfield, causing more damage and destroying a few planes. 40 Zeros were on CAP but they weren't very effective today.

B-25s continue to bomb troops at Makassar.

Pare Pare and Palopo are taken.

I spotted a task force well southwest of Java. I see 3 ships, one being a cruiser. This could be a raiding task force, or could be a carrier task force. A sub nearby was not detected, so maybe not carriers. If Walker wanted to bombard Denpassar, he wouldn't have had to go so far south to do so. This looks like some combat ships looking for easy pickings between the islands and Australia.

CV Victorious will move to a blocking position to try to intercept these ships. It has only a dozen or so TBFs, so expectations are high, but it is what I have in the area. Hope there aren't enemy carriers there.

8 Fletchers from Darwin form up and start to move in this direction. Ships at Waingapoe pull up anchor and head to safer waters. Some naval bombers are moved to Waingapoe.

A note about Koepang: it still shows 19 units, but the number of men there has decreased significantly. I now see 11480 men, 190 guns, and 133 vehicles. There were about 20000 men there. They are coming out by air or by sub. There is little doubt now that 2 divisions will take this base, should I decide to do so.

The Makassar invasion shipping will leave and head to Darwin, escorted by the 6 US carriers. A small task force with an armor unit will move into Makassar today and start to unload. This is a risk, with air protection leaving, but I've seen no attempts to use air against me there so far. Walker will reconsider this tomorrow when he sees my carriers leave. I hope that the armor will have unloaded by then, as I will be deliberately attacking tomorrow.

[jwolf]

At Makassar, once you defeat the Japanese there, won't they retreat into the bush to the E or NE? I understand they will be trapped but you'll still have to hunt them down, right?

[BBfanboy]

Once he takes Watampone he has a solid barrier across the peninsula and the enemy can only retreat into the hex NE or E of Makassar. It will be easy to push them into a corner or surround them - not much hunting required. They might not even try to retreat given that they do not have an open path all the way to a Japanese base.

[apbarog]

Yes, once Watampone is taken, the peninsula that Makassar is on will be cut off. With no bases to draw a path to, the enemy will surrender instead of retreat. This is important to me with these invasions, because my only landing in strength is at Makassar.

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43

Off the west coast of Luzon, patrol boats look for US subs. Sub Hake finds the task force, and gets a torpedo hit on PB Kembu Maru, probably sinking it. I-168 fires on Concord while it heads southeast, but misses.

Cruiser Concord and destroyers bombard Makassar, doing light damage.

B-25s bomb troops at Makassar.

Near Donggala, off the west coast of the northern part of Celebes, sub Triton spots a combat task force with cruisers Aoba, Mogami, and Kinu, and 5 destroyers. 4 torpedoes are fires at Aoba, but all miss.

An armor unit is unloaded at Makassar, and the shipping leaves afterwards. Today Makassar will be attacked. Watampone was captured without a fight, so retreat from Makassar is impossible.

With US carriers returning to Darwin, I decide to start loading for the invasion of Kolaka. Kolaka seems to have just a very small unit, with about 300 men. I will have one division secure Kolaka, and another land there afterwards and both will walk to Kendari. Lots of engineers will land also.

The enemy task force spotted well southwest of Java was not seen today. Walker may have gotten cold feet with them, after they were spotted, or he sent them south or southwest toward Exemouth, looking for shipping. CV Victorious did not spot them, and will now return to Darwin. The Fletchers coming from Darwin will continue west, sweeping the ocean, then turn southwest to Exemouth.

I have naval bombers at Exemouth now.

The many subs near Makassar now seem to be heading to Soerbaja. Many were damaged, and the rest probably thought better of sticking around. Of course, now it's safer, with my carriers having left. But there's also almost no targets left in the area. ASW from Denpassar continues.

Carrier Lexington II arrived in Balboa. It now heads to Pago Pago.

[Macclan5]

Congrats on a very successful axis of advance. [&o]

You have many many options North - West - even East back to New Guinea. Given its July 43 and your equipment momentum is really just starting to roll....[8D]

--

Please don't forget to drop a snapshot of the overall strategic map and/or Burma/India ~ Central Pacific Islands ~ Coral Sea.

There is no doubt (in my mind) those theaters are probably secondary in your planning; rightfully so.

However we the allied Fan-boys and devoted fans of this AAR are very curious as to where you are holding the line.

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43 - The Aleutians

All bases in Allied hands, with bases building. No activity here other than the occasional enemy sub. A few subs sortie from Adak and go to northern Japan.

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43 - The Marshalls and Gilberts

All quiet here too. I suspect that Walker has mostly abandoned the Marshalls. I would move north from Tabitueua, but so far I've sent everything I can to the offensive north of Australia.

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43 - Burma

A static line with no activity. I've sent so many units to Australia, including my best air units, that I can't start a meaningful offensive here. And I don't want to give away the fact that I've sent so much. Walker has also weakened his front here, but still has the Imperial Guard split up on the front, as well as a full tank division on the road south of Chittagong.

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43 - The Solomons

Fairly quiet. I continue to bombard at Munda. Equal forces there. That will change soon. I have 2 regiments organizing at Rennell Island, heading for Munda soon. Also, I have 2 divisions prepping at Luganville for Buna and Torokina. This area is not a priority for me, but I want to show some interest in getting closer to Rabaul.

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43 - The Strategic Map

[apbarog]

12 Jul 43 - Intel Information

In addition, the Japanese have lost 20 destroyers, while the Allies have lost 13, 6 of which are US destroyers.

[jwolf]

Air losses seem surprisingly low on both sides as I suppose both of you try to avoid CAP traps or other super aggressive air operations. So I would guess that both sides have a pretty good pool of top notch pilots.

Thanks for posting the area maps and the overall strat map. When do you expect to be able to launch a second major axis of advance?

[apbarog]

Air losses have been low. We haven't fought an attritional air war anywhere, really. Walker tends to massively CAP important locations, like Soerbaja now, and Rabaul for quite awhile. I tend to not sweep these heavily protected locations, unless I'm doing a maximum effort, including heavy bombers. And I have to have a good reason to do so.

My landings, in New Guinea, up the east coast of Australia, north to Timor, and beyond, have tended to not run into massive defenses. I've been able to hit points of interest, like Koepang and Kendari, with enough sweepers and heavy bombers, to make these locations unsafe for his aircraft. Then he leaves. Then I invade.

As for a second major axis of advance, I don't foresee a new separate axis of advance. With my holdings on Timor, the islands toward Java, the Celebes, and Dobo, I can go multiple directions. And I will. I will go to Borneo, do a right hook to Ternate and Sorong, threaten Java with the Indian and Chinese troops, and move on to Mindanao. Southern Borneo will be fairly easy to do. Wrapping around the eastern side of Borneo and going to the north side would be interesting.

The warning signs have to be flashing for Walker. I could already be bombing Balikpapan's oil. If I take Balikpapan, I could be bombing northern Borneo's oil, and Palembang isn't that far away either. When the Japanese lose easy access to the oil, it's the beginning of the end for them.

But I expect a determined defense from Walker. I just don't know when and where I will see it. He's lost some carriers, but no battleships. He's used his battleships as bomb sponges so far, but that may change with the lack of carriers.

[apbarog]

13 Jul 43

Well south of Cam Ranh Bay, out in mid-ocean, sub Grayback finds a big xAK task force, and hits xAK Sydney Maru #2. It is loaded with fuel and is now burning brightly. Probable sinking.

B-25s bomb enemy troops at Makassar. US troops attack, with poor odds but acceptable results. Will rest and then attack again.

Ground combat at Makassar (65,106)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13268 troops, 203 guns, 239 vehicles, Assault Value = 418

Defending force 12147 troops, 112 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 245

Allied adjusted assault: 52

Japanese adjusted defense: 105

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
888 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 62 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 26 disabled
Guns lost 43 (19 destroyed, 24 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
512 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 35 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 38 disabled
Guns lost 9 (2 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 14 (1 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Assaulting units:
102nd Cmbt Engineer Regiment
41st Infantry Division
4th USMC Tank Battalion
2/543rd Boat&Shore Engineer Battalion

Defending units:
48th Div /3
25th Ind Engineer Regiment
9th Infantry Regiment
12th Garrison Unit /1
1st Base Force
144th JAAF AF Bn
2nd JAAF AF Coy
16th JNAF AF Unit
17th JNAF AF Unit
64th JNAF AF Unit
23rd Air Flotilla
21st Port Unit /1


I had to chuckle when I saw Walker recon a dot base far in inland Borneo (see map). He must be getting really paranoid, expecting me to appear just about anywhere. To see him that worried tells me that I must be doing something right.

[edit: Note Walker's TF south of Java has reappeared, 4 hexes from Denpassar. That is also the range from Denpassar to Soerbaja, so I can't put naval bombers at Denpassar and allow that much range, or they'll get slaughtered over Soerbaja. Walker knows this. I don't know what his intentions are, but I should find out soon. I have 8 Fletchers coming up from the south. If Walker's ships stick around a day, we'll have an intercept. ]

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

As for a second major axis of advance, I don't foresee a new separate axis of advance. With my holdings on Timor, the islands toward Java, the Celebes, and Dobo, I can go multiple directions. And I will. I will go to Borneo, do a right hook to Ternate and Sorong, threaten Java with the Indian and Chinese troops, and move on to Mindanao. Southern Borneo will be fairly easy to do. Wrapping around the eastern side of Borneo and going to the north side would be interesting.

The warning signs have to be flashing for Walker. I could already be bombing Balikpapan's oil. If I take Balikpapan, I could be bombing northern Borneo's oil, and Palembang isn't that far away either. When the Japanese lose easy access to the oil, it's the beginning of the end for them.

1) Thank you for the maps.. updates.. very much appreciated.

2) Nice summary above.

As you correctly note the bases you captured can be developed enough to represent spring boards to so many places in so many directions.

Its more than a salient or a bulge; its actually another Pearl Harbor / Hawaiian Islands in the south west pacific.

When you start parking LB Air units on Celebes.... yikes.

Not much need for a second axis of advance if the 2nd 3rd and 4th axis of advance jumps off of Makassar or Kendari (eventually).

The BBs do represent a threat to you as you note but without CV Air cover ??? They can counter punch you certainly but it will have to be in a spot withing range of his LBA.... so you should be able to "plan around it".

It only takes one lucky torp to cause a BB headache for 250 days.