Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]India[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

A bit cluttered but I hope its somewhat clear what is happening. 2nd British are just 2 days out from Calcutta now. 2nd Marines are about 2 weeks out.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think your next attack succeeds unless he brings in reinforcements (remember, he can strat mode them into the contested hex, though doing so leaves them vulnerable) or unless your undersupplied. With a 2:1 and two forts dropping to one on the last attack, I think you might hazard a shock attack next turn. I'd definitely do it if you can check off these three things: (1) you have suppy; (2) you aren't unduly disrupted and fatigued; and (3) there's no risk of meaningful IJA reinforcements arriving.

My sense is that a shock will work here. If so, his stack will be in terrible condition.

Good luck!

agreed... though if you can prevent any reinforcements from entering, another deliberate, followed by a shock attack with the tanks in reserve mode.
Or if you could hit him hard from the air (do you have anything left?), shock attack next with the tanks in reserve.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think your next attack succeeds unless he brings in reinforcements (remember, he can strat mode them into the contested hex, though doing so leaves them vulnerable) or unless your undersupplied. With a 2:1 and two forts dropping to one on the last attack, I think you might hazard a shock attack next turn. I'd definitely do it if you can check off these three things: (1) you have suppy; (2) you aren't unduly disrupted and fatigued; and (3) there's no risk of meaningful IJA reinforcements arriving.

My sense is that a shock will work here. If so, his stack will be in terrible condition.

Good luck!

I think so too. Sadly supply is in the red again so I´ll have to wait. Disruption and fatigue are under control though. Nothing too bad. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj
agreed... though if you can prevent any reinforcements from entering, another deliberate, followed by a shock attack with the tanks in reserve mode.
Or if you could hit him hard from the air (do you have anything left?), shock attack next with the tanks in reserve.

Air is gone and will be for a while. [:(] Have some 4Es coming in but they are 7 days from CT.

I´ll attack as soon as supply are back in white!

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: tiemanj
agreed... though if you can prevent any reinforcements from entering, another deliberate, followed by a shock attack with the tanks in reserve mode.
Or if you could hit him hard from the air (do you have anything left?), shock attack next with the tanks in reserve.

Air is gone and will be for a while. [:(] Have some 4Es coming in but they are 7 days from CT.

I´ll attack as soon as supply are back in white!

How red is red? Remember that supply usage goes up considerably when you go into combat. What was white yesterday is red today (even if their hadn't been any supply draw). If your divisions are still in 4 digits, I'd go now. Always remember, he is hurting too - and in this case, more than you. Wait, and he gets supplies, his disruption gets lower, he recovers disabled squads, and he builds forts.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Air is gone and will be for a while. [:(] Have some 4Es coming in but they are 7 days from CT.

More stream of consciousness here: I usually build up the Socatra airfield so that TFs inbound from Capetown and carrying airfcraft can unload there. Speeds up arrival at the front by roughly four to six days.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: tiemanj
agreed... though if you can prevent any reinforcements from entering, another deliberate, followed by a shock attack with the tanks in reserve mode.
Or if you could hit him hard from the air (do you have anything left?), shock attack next with the tanks in reserve.

Air is gone and will be for a while. [:(] Have some 4Es coming in but they are 7 days from CT.

I´ll attack as soon as supply are back in white!

How red is red? Remember that supply usage goes up considerably when you go into combat. What was white yesterday is red today (even if their hadn't been any supply draw). If your divisions are still in 4 digits, I'd go now. Always remember, he is hurting too - and in this case, more than you. Wait, and he gets supplies, his disruption gets lower, he recovers disabled squads, and he builds forts.

All IDs are juuuust above 1k. So they are all 2-300 supplies short. Too much for me to risk an attack.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
More stream of consciousness here: I usually build up the Socatra airfield so that TFs inbound from Capetown and carrying airfcraft can unload there. Speeds up arrival at the front by roughly four to six days.

That is something I had not thought of! Thanks for the advice. [:)]

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Do you think this is Lowpe's first awareness that 32nd USA Division in India? If so, what do you think he'll make of that info?

He might think SWPAC is a bit light on and make him frisky there?

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
More stream of consciousness here: I usually build up the Socatra airfield so that TFs inbound from Capetown and carrying airfcraft can unload there. Speeds up arrival at the front by roughly four to six days.

That is something I had not thought of! Thanks for the advice. [:)]

Never thought to do this either. Would really only work for fairly long range planes right?

Would likely suffer some ops losses for the long range transfers, but weighed against the potential to lose the entire squadron to a sub attack it seems to weigh out positively.

[JeffroK]

Do you have any spare units which can make moves to either delay or give Lowpe cause to withhold reinforcement?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: JeffK
He might think SWPAC is a bit light on and make him frisky there?

I´m not sure. If he has done his homework he should know about the Americal starting in OZ. Besides them I´ve only sent the 27th ID there.

Perhaps he is underestimating the Australian army? While not the most powerful units there are still plenty of full IDs with decent EXP. In a defensive role with some good terrain and backed up with extra arty and some armor I think they can prove quite resilient.

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Do you have any spare units which can make moves to either delay or give Lowpe cause to withhold reinforcement?

Do you mean the stack trying to push in between Asansol and Calcutta?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]India[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Quite surprisingly my units at Asansol were able to draw in more supplies after just a turn of waiting! [&o] Tomorrow we attack again. I decided against shock attacking. I´m short on combat engineers after the last attack and if Jeff got the forts back up we could do more harm to ourselves then to him with a shock attack.

His stack is showing movement to the NW. Probably wrecked units moving to Ranchi and then strat mode out. My 3 IDs move in to block Jeffs stack trying to slot in between Calcutta and Asansol. He should have shifted hex a long time ago though so this is just a feint from him. Nonetheless we are now in place.

2nd British just passed Nagpur. 2nd Marines will come on map in 2 days. British BBs will cover their crossing.

Jeff continues to bomb me from the air. He looses a couple bombers each time for no noticeable effect.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]SOPAC[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

A small unit (probably a BF) lands at Belep Island. Not going to react to this until I know more. Something more is coming no doubt. Had a bit of good timing here.

Noumea expands fortifications to size 6

Started expending the airfield now. I´ve loaded up reinforcements for Noumea but they are holding for now. Doubled NavS on the OZ coast around Townesville.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: JeffK
He might think SWPAC is a bit light on and make him frisky there?

I´m not sure. If he has done his homework he should know about the Americal starting in OZ. Besides them I´ve only sent the 27th ID there.

Perhaps he is underestimating the Australian army? While not the most powerful units there are still plenty of full IDs with decent EXP. In a defensive role with some good terrain and backed up with extra arty and some armor I think they can prove quite resilient.

If he is counting units, seeing 6 & 7 OZ & 32 US in India might appear that SWPAC only has Oz Militia and 1-2 US Divs, I dont overestimate the Australian Militia units, and the US Divs are (should be) far from being the lean, mean fighting machines of 1944-45.

IFF the japanese player can land 3-4 Divs at one point he should have enough force concentrated to take the base (Unless its your L6+forts at Noumea) and see off reaction forces as they arrive.

Lots depends on whether its a game for AV or 1945.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: JeffK
If he is counting units, seeing 6 & 7 OZ & 32 US in India might appear that SWPAC only has Oz Militia and 1-2 US Divs, I dont overestimate the Australian Militia units, and the US Divs are (should be) far from being the lean, mean fighting machines of 1944-45.

IFF the japanese player can land 3-4 Divs at one point he should have enough force concentrated to take the base (Unless its your L6+forts at Noumea) and see off reaction forces as they arrive.

Lots depends on whether its a game for AV or 1945.

I think the window for 3-4 IDs to run rampage in SOPAC are way past now. The OZ army actually upgrade from a militia to proper IDs in spring 42. [:)] Very light TOE but not that different from a standard Jap ID.

Most important factor though is forts. I have had 10 months to build forts. All important places have level 5-8 forts.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]SIGINT[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Some very interesting SIGINT have dropped in the last couple of turns. Been a while since I sat down and went through everything. Its a good thing I did because I found a lot of interesting things.

2/25th/B Division is loaded on xAKL Gyoun Maru moving to Rangoon.
1/18th/B Division is located at Imphal(60,40).
5/19th Division is planning for an attack on Calcutta.
9/48th/A Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
21st/A Division is located at Skagway(191,35).
4th/B Division is located at Pearl Harbor(180,107).
18th/A Division is planning for an attack on Ledo.
4th/A Division is located at Pearl Harbor(180,107).

This is a just a couple. There are a ton more but I don´t want to dig them all up. I can´t stress to new players just how important keeping track of SIGINT is. Its THE most important tool you have early game and might provide your only chance to react to Japanese movement in time.

Anyway. This tells me three things I didn´t know.
-19th ID is in India or on its way.
-48th ID are on boats going somewhere and its not PR (He would need 10+ IDs for that). I bet they are going to India.
-25th ID are moving to India.

This boost Japanese strength to at least 7 IDs (5th, 18th, 25th, IGD, 38th, 4th Guards ID, 48th(?)). This still leaves him seriously understrength in India.

------------------------
NORPAC/CENTPAC
------------------------
4th ID at PH
21st at Skagway

------------------------
India
------------------------
4th Guards at Asansol
5th ID. Not seen in India but SIGINT showed them moving to Chittagong in Mars and planning for Calcutta in June.
18th ID
25th on ships to Rangoon
38th at Asansol
Imperial Guards at Ledo
19th planning for Calcutta. Last seen on Mindanao.


------------------------
China [X(] (Just realized this!!!)
------------------------
33rd ID (woot!)
Guards Tank Division (wooot?!)

Not really sure how I managed to miss this. But Jeff have actually moved the 33rd ID from NORPAC to...China. That is a huge Allied victory. I must really have frustrated him here.

Go me?! [:D]

------------------------
Unknown
------------------------
16th last seen at Coal Harbor. Most likely still there.
48th on ships. Last seen at Bella Bella. Probably moving for India.
6th Guards ID. Never seen (possibly China?). Begins at CRB in February.


Not sure if I have missed any? But its obvious Jeff has moved the bulk of his forces to India. In fact almost half of them are there.

------------------------
Conclusions
------------------------
This tells me many important things assuming I havn´t missed any major Japanese troops.
-There is NO threat to SOPAC. He would need 5-6 divisions to take any location of importance (Noumea, Suva) and mainland OZ/NZ is completely out of the picture.

-It also tells me there won´t be any WC invasion. He would need everything he has (10-15 IDs) to have even the slightest chance. With 9 IDs in India and China this is absolutely impossible. Thoughts?

-Jeff is slowly getting sucked into the Indian morass CR mentioned. He is now fighting the worst possible place the Japanese can fight. And more importantly he has completely lost the initiative. He is now reacting (and has been for the last few months) to an allied buildup in India.

-Japan is dangerously week in SOPAC and NORPAC.

I have to give this some more thoughts. But I see some interesting possibilities for the allies.

[BBfanboy]

Sigint is showing 4th division A and B portions in PH and then mentions just "4th ID", but does not mention 4th/C. Does that mean he has split the Division and sent some of it to other parts of Hawaii or SoPac? Could he be starting to extract the division?

[ny59giants]

After running the Combat Replay and loading the actual turn, I ALWAYS hit the "L" key for SIGINT. [:D] If you skip a turn doing this you can miss something very important.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Sigint is showing 4th division A and B portions in PH and then mentions just "4th ID", but does not mention 4th/C. Does that mean he has split the Division and sent some of it to other parts of Hawaii or SoPac? Could he be starting to extract the division?

I doubt that he would have sent them far away. He would want them close by to recombine if needed!

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

After running the Combat Replay and loading the actual turn, I ALWAYS hit the "L" key for SIGINT. [:D] If you skip a turn doing this you can miss something very important.

I actually do this before I do anything else. [:)]