Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

The requested screenie. Quite interesting, IMHO.



Notes:

The hex selected and in green is Cribtop Intel's best estimate of the position of enemy CVs yesterday. This estimate is based on yesterday's position of our picket PBs (see label). The "empty" red circle is the position where a PB was overflown by seven reported SBDs. If you do the math from that hex to Luganville, an SBD couldn't have made the flight. We think there are Catalinas at Ndeni supported by an AVD, but you have to have some really big numbers of Cats plus some really blind lookouts to report that many Cats as dive bombers.

Cribtop HQ's reaction: MKB (all IJN CVs and CVLs) is moving SE as shown, preceded by an AMC with Jakes. 45 elite Zeros and 36 elite Nells are based at Munda, with 9 ASW trained Kates for good measure to provide LBA support. South Seas Fleet and Tanaka Force are moving to the shallow hex marked to be ready to intervene if an invasion occurs. Finally, a CL TF will move a point a few hexes NE of Tulagi as a rapid reaction force.

EDIT: Crap, I just realized that the "empty" red circle is placed incorrectly. It should be 2 hexes to the east (map). That's where the PB really was. Note that the green circle is just within normal range of F4F-4s from Ndeni. Was CF about to try something and then set up an ambush to our reaction?

[Crackaces]

Would not this situation be a little more certain with air patrol on Tulagi or Munda ?

In my sophomoric opinion) The weakest link for the KB is operating outside of the patrol areas.There does not seem to be a submarine screen to give you a clue of what's up... Hypothetical ..what if the USN were operating multiple TF's and you only find one TF in one hex? .. that might lead to an exchange rather than an ambush ...

Just a thought ..But I am a cautious one [8D]

[BigBadWolf]

Maybe few Mavises in Tulagi could detect something.

[Cribtop]

I agree with you both. The sub screen is heading our way (it was preparing to screen the original descent on Sydney). We have air search out of Munda that stops one hex short of the supposed enemy. Tomorrow Mavii out of Nukufetau will paint the affected area. We won't rush in too fast to avoid counter-ambush. Indeed, after I post tomorrow's recap you'll see I am developing a theory CF was about to try something and use his CVs to jump on my reaction.

[obvert]

Getting tense down there! Looking forward to the next post.

[Cribtop]

September 27, 1942

The Devil is in the details, gents... today the Devil gets his due and probably spoils our ambush.

Subs

Drum misses a DD in one of the two TFs that compose MKB. Although no CVs are revealed in the combat report, BB Kirishima and a CS are spotted, along with a Tone Class CA. If that contact doesn't scream "Kido Butai is on the prowl" to CF, nothing will. Damn shame too, since air search reveals some tasty tidbits that were probably a nascent FT TF invasion Op with Allied CVs lurking to pounce on any reaction. [:@][:(]

Sturgeon duds on ASW DDs near Singkep. Pickerel unfortunately finds and finishes off the big AMC (Kiyosami Maru) she hit yesterday. Apparently Pickerel's crew borrowed some Dutch TTs. K XIV sinks an xAK in a resource convoy near Jesselton.

I-34's Glen recons Noumea - and is lightly damaged by flak - but the brave and well trained pilot reports a convoy of 7 Wickes class APDs in a TF at the port. Sure looks like an FT TF invasion force similar to the one that grabbed empty Ndeni a few weeks back. We really notice the difference in the specially trained pilots on our "recon subs."

Glens spot two huge (CVE/TK/xAP) convoys inbound to Sydney from the East and Perth from the West. This seems to confirm Cribtop Intel's hypothesis that CF is using monster convoys to maintain his SLoCs, resulting in the paucity of IJN sub attacks to date.

Other than that, no sub contacts this turn. [;)]

4th Fleet

Funafuti and Nanumea are reconned, while a 9 ship task force is reported near Gardner Island moving speed 20. Could be a bad spotting report on a sub, but it could be ships inbound for Baker or as part of the enemy Op that we almost jumped.

SE Fleet

Mavis search planes don't report any contacts near the Santa Cruz Islands. Did CF move this turn? Were we hallucinating? Hmm.

65th Brigade completes unloading at Milne Bay, bringing AS here up to 295. Once a few more disabled squads recover, this base will be up to 340ish AS with high forts. This key base is much more secure, which is good if CF is up to something.

Southern Army

No change.

15th Army

We sweep Akyab and bomb the airbase just to keep CF guessing. No CAP is present and the airfield attacks that go in next damage 4 Catalina Is and get good hits on the base. A shame that much of the planned raid was scrubbed by storms at IJAAF bases.

China

No change.

5th Fleet

We spot a second TF at Umnak Island with a DD reported present. The CA TF is still there. The enemy is probably delivering something (troops/planes/supplies) but there's a chance of a quickie invasion just before Winter so we will send 5th Fleet up to take a look and maybe lob in a few shells. Attu makes level 3 forts, which is rather timely under the circumstances.

Combined Fleet

We will move MKB into a position well north of the Santa Cruz Islands just in case CF continues forward. The surface combat elements will park on a small hex of shallow water East of Shortlands except for Kurihara Force, an SCTF consisting of 5 CLs. They will cautiously move into position to bombard Ndeni over the next several days in hopes of stirring something up.

[Cribtop]

September 28, 1942

Subs

Searaven duds on an xAKL near Cam Ranh Bay, a new area of operations for enemy subs. Return DC fire is ineffective but at least reaches the sub thanks to Mod-2 DC launchers. Pompano duds on an xAK near Daito Shoto. ASW forces harass Sturgeon near Singkep.

Taking a tip from Mike Solli's AAR, we tried launching an SSX from one hex outside Sydney and then moving them into the hex. This works pretty well as the mini doesn't try to penetrate the harbor but does try to attack passing shipping. Enemy ASW assets force the mini to the surface and sink her.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

A PB on picket duty south of Milne Bay reports an encounter with enemy surface ships but there is no combat animation. Odd. No information is available on the nature of the enemy TF and nothing is spotted by our numerous search planes the following day. Still, something is stirring the pot around here.

Southern Army

We are continuing to build the second line of defense behind Darwin, with base forces now building up Babar, Saumlaki, and Ruteng in addition to the bases already in the works.

After noticing an enemy sub traversing the Tandjoengpinang hex, we drop mines and ACMs at that base and Lingga as an ASW move.

15th Army

We launch night raids at Akyab and Chittagong just to shake things up. We are doing this because Mr. Tojo is almost ready for his debut and want to have enemy fighter bases to target for sweeps.

Toungoo makes level four forts.

China

No change.

5th Fleet

Our ships are approaching a mid ocean re-fueling before entering the Bering Sea.

Combined Fleet

The spider is in the web near Ocean and Nauru Islands, but Cribtop Intel suspects the fly is gone.

Other

We get an interesting report that BB North Carolina sank near Luganville. She was hit by a torpedo in the Bass Strait and reported sunk, then removed from the list (no surprise). Getting put back on near Luganville is interesting. Perhaps we picked up a radio signal of flooding as she limped back to Pearl? No way she sank, but still a hmmm.

[Cribtop]

September 29, 1942

Subs

I-176 misses a DD in a big SCTF NE of Pearl that included at least one CA.

K XIV misses a PB near Pontianak. Really annoying that CF can continue to operate in these waters as we have ASW air patrols with trained pilots out in force covering the whole triangle from Palembang to Singers to Pontianak.

Everywhere else

Very quiet.

Forts galore

Nanchang hits level 6; Adak, Buka, Namatanai and Myitkyina all hit level 3.

[Cribtop]

September 30, 1942

Subs

Grunion duds on an xAK near Aogashima. A B-26 attacks but misses a Glen boat we had snooping near San Francisco.

Southern Army

Daly Waters makes level 4 forts, which is nice in terms of future delay enforced on the enemy.

Combined Fleet

We've lurked and pushed around pickets and subs near Luganville without result except that we have mapped out the Allied naval search coming from Luganville pretty well. No doubt the USN has cancelled whatever they may have been up to thanks to the alert crew of the Drum.

[Cribtop]

October 1, 1942

We push on into the fall of 1942. CF appears to be stirring a bit in SWPAC and Burma but overall is content with Sitzkrieg. Cribtop HQ is studying its options but doesn't want to mount any major offensives at this relatively late date. We want to pursue a very active defense but so far there is no offense to be active against. [:D] Patience is probably a virtue here.

Oh, wait. Scratch that. We spot all sorts of stuff today.

Subs

O-23 torpedoes and sinks an empty supply ship returning from Saumlaki to Kendari. I-23 misses a DD in an ASW TF and takes a penetrating but non-fatal DC hit in return. I wish there was a button for "IJN subs won't shoot at DDs." I-153 misses SS Perch near Perth. Try saying that fast five times. [;)]

4th Fleet

We spot a TF at Baker Island but our Bettys don't fly to attack.

SE Fleet

Our 5 CL SCTF bombards Ndeni. Effect is minimal since the base is unimproved, but the whole idea was to try to dangle a target in front of the enemy and perhaps get him to chase the red cape.

After days of no contacts, one of our picket PBs suddenly reports overflights by four SBDs, three in quick succession in a single phase. Did CF nose his CVs back to take a look? If so, the timing of our bombardment run was perfect.

Glen recon from the marvelous I-34 spots a goodly number of fighters, bombers and auxilliary planes at Suva, along with 4 LCUs and two TFs composed mostly of APDs. Perhaps just ASW TFs, but very possibly the FT TF we saw at Luganville a few days back.

Munda Point makes level 4 forts. Fort building here is very accelerated now that we moved the engineers that were previously fortifying Tulagi.

Southern Army

No change.

15th Army

Recon of Chittagong appears to show one or more units moving south toward Cox's Bazaar and Akyab.

China

Reinforcements arrived yesterday and we DA today, supported by every IJAAF bomber in China. We are very pleased indeed with the result, which achieves 3:1 odds, drops forts to 2, and nets casualties of 3362(72) vs 7168(60). This has been a painful siege in terms of disablements (today two divisions are rendered combat ineffective), but permanent losses have been very light and it appears to be only a matter of time.

Combined Fleet

The CLs will retire to Truk. MKB will take up a position north of the Santa Cruz Islands in hopes of action. We doubt CF will chase the bombardment force, but hope he takes up station to ambush an invasion that isn't coming and then gets whacked himself.

[Cribtop]

October 2, 1942

Subs

Stingray duds on a small TK near Singers. A Lily out of Palembang reports a hit on a nearby SS. Finally those ASW flyboys are justifying their 70 ASW skills. A Kate out of Munda attacks a USN sub just west of the base.

I-35, a Glen boat moving south near Luganville, is spotted by search aircraft from the base but nothing extensive enough to be enemy CV aircraft.

4th Fleet

The enemy finally recons Nukufetau and no doubt has discovered our secret seaplane base. We were surprised how long it took to find it, but now will pull the AV and Mavii back to Tulagi.

SE Fleet

Shortlands forts go to level 4.

Southern Army

No change.

15th Army

Recon confirms that 1 LCU is moving on the trail between Chittagong and Cox's. Cribtop Intel theorizes that the movement of this unit and the 45th Recce just to the East could be attempting to create an LCU picket line to prevent the IJA from slipping behind Akyab to hit Cox's Bazaar. Then again, they could still presage a massive offensive, but we doubt it.

China

Our army at Changsha will recover for a few days and pull out the trashed divisions for R&R, but another DA is coming soon as we are already back to 4500 AS in the hex and want to close the deal here. Recon is carefully watching for any sign the enemy is attempting to reinforce, but nothing. Frankly, at this point CF should either reinforce the base if he has the capability or abandon it. I shudder to think of the losses that will be inflicted when 20 Chinese LCUs are forced to retreat.

Combined Fleet

Not a nibble or a peep of enemy reaction to the Ndeni bombardment. We lit up the area with our TB Bettys in addition to the normal coverage and thus had black search lines extending just about all the way to Luganville. If the enemy was here, he has moved south.

Other

We are intrigued to report that material is slowly piling up at Fusan at a rate that confirms the land route is open even before the fall of Changsha. Banzai!

[Captain Cruft]

"Mavii"

ROFL

[Cribtop]

Can't help it, it's the Latin from Law School. [:D]

[FeurerKrieg]

Taking a tip from Mike Solli's AAR, we tried launching an SSX from one hex outside Sydney and then moving them into the hex. This works pretty well as the mini doesn't try to penetrate the harbor but does try to attack passing shipping. Enemy ASW assets force the mini to the surface and sink her.

I'll second that sentiment. I did this (dropped one hex away and moved in) near Port Moresby in my game and two of my minis got hits. In my case it is still early so the ASW didn't get my minisubs. They actually got recovered and will rearm.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Taking a tip from Mike Solli's AAR, we tried launching an SSX from one hex outside Sydney and then moving them into the hex. This works pretty well as the mini doesn't try to penetrate the harbor but does try to attack passing shipping. Enemy ASW assets force the mini to the surface and sink her.

I'll second that sentiment. I did this (dropped one hex away and moved in) near Port Moresby in my game and two of my minis got hits. In my case it is still early so the ASW didn't get my minisubs. They actually got recovered and will rearm.

This is really good to know. Until confirmation from you guys, it was just a theory.

[Cribtop]

October 3, 1942

Subs

The USN subs continue to use Dutch torpedoes. Sturgeon sinks an xAK hauling supplies from Palembang to Singers. Sargo torpedoes and sinks an xAK that just re-supplied Munda. O-20 completes the insult by sinking DMS W-8, which had been part of an ASW TF prowling the sub-infested waters off Palembang. Fortunately, the lost ship's companions put two penetrating hits into O-20 and she shows heavy damage in the combat report. Lilys out of Palembang also attack several subs this turn.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

Glens spot two TFs just East of Luganville. One a 3 ship TF w/ "APD, APD, xAP" reported, the other a 9 ship TF with 5CL, 2DD and 1 TK identified. Interesting. Is the latter TF a replinishment TF with most of the CLs really misreported DDs?

Hollandia airfield is up to 4.

Southern Army

Recon shows a huge commitment of transports at Alice Springs, no doubt trying to supply the enemy army south of Daly. Cribtop HQ is pleased by this since per most Allied players it is simply impossible to get enough supply to an army advancing overland on Darwin, meaning the transports are employed in a futile effort.

15th Army

Recon yesterday noted that there were lots of auxilliary planes but no fighters at Ledo. We send in a bomber wing and find no CAP. 3 C-47 are destroyed and 24 damaged. Nice. Engineers have completed the tortured journey to Lao Cai and will build up an airfield there to allow LRCAP of Kunming to further interdict supply flights.

China

BA Changsha nets 237(4) casualties but more importantly shows that most of the Chinese corps present are wrecked from the replay AS displays. The end is near as we will attack again within 72 hours. Cribtop Intel estimates at most 2 more attacks before capture.

Canton makes level 6 port. I honestly didn't realize I was building it up and may re-evaluate whether to stop as Hong Kong is already level 9.

Combined Fleet

MKB could move flank speed and bring the two spotted TFs near Luganville into threat range, but doing so could really hang the IJN CVs out deep in Indian Country. Instead we evaluate these sightings as further proof that CF is up to something nearby and that MKB is in the right area of operations. We will loiter a few more days and consider detaching a DD raiding force to look for targets and perhaps serve as a trap.

[Crackaces]

Have you thought about your transition into defense? I am also interested in your thoughts of what the road to '46 looks like?

[Cribtop]

Frankly I have for all practical purposes already transitioned to the strategic defensive. Once Changsha falls there really is no more territory I absolutely must have.

My plan is for an active defense based on multiple lines of mutually supporting bases. I want to take advantage of counter offensives - direct, indirect and even dislocative where appropriate. However, it is hard to conduct a defense when your enemy won't really go over to offense. [:D]. I think CF is gathering for a big attack over the next 60 days, but is starting a little slower than the historical timeline because he wants to come with a multi-divisional offensive. All signs point to SWPAC but then again that may be misdirection. Time will tell.

As for '46, the general goal is to keep up the active, delaying defense. Key to the strategy will be that China should be starved by then and hordes of divisions from China and Manchuria will be added to the perimeter.

[Crackaces]

It seems you have thought about it. What I read in AAR's is Japan tries to maintain the offensive initiative until the Allies are ready to attack and then .. disaster and a scamble to establish a line. So I had an inkling you had some thoughts in this direction.

A look at my AAR and the IJ had not planned to go on defense and key positions in open hexes were not fortified, other key bases do not have the port/airfield/fort level to maintain supply given a sudden shift to offense. Thus my reason for asking the question. It seems the time for the Allies to apply some force projection.

[Cribtop]

Yes, I think many AARs find Japan establishing its initial goals and then answering the inevitable "now what?" question with a further offensive that ends in defeat. I've been busy building outpost bases, and several MLRs in each AO. I do not want to surrender the strategic initiative entirely but a discussion a few pages back concluded that the best way to do so in a strategically coherent manner was to use the active defense approach.

Examples:

4th Fleet AO

Outposts - Ellice Islands, formerly Baker.

1st MLR - TB, Tarawa, Kwaj, Roi Namur

2nd MLR - Ponape/Eniwetok/name escapes me (they form a triangle just West of the Marshalls)

SE Fleet AO

Outpost - Tulagi, formerly Ndeni

1st MLR - Port Moresby/Milne Bay/Munda

2nd MLR - Bougainville/Lae/Buna

Support bases - Rabaul, Namatanai, Gasmata, Kavieng

Etc.