The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I seem to have had a meltdown yesterday. It was an odd sensation because it was limited solely to the cyber world of AE. In real life, it was a pleasantly serene day. I spoke to a group of seniors at a church; I worked with a promising author; I ran three tough miles on Lavender Mountain; I finished An Army at Dawn; and I cleaned the kitchen for my wife, who's a bit under the weather. There were no storms in real life, but in AE Land I snapped.

There was justification (to my way of thinking) for it but it probably wasn't necessary and it probably wasn't productive. I doubt I changed any minds. And I bet John, who's enduring relentless punishment in the game, was stung by the vehemence of my posts and the strong opinions expressed by a number of well-respected members of the community.

Here's a little note I sent today to a kind Forumite who had sent me a private message:

You’re probably right [in offering that the game engine probably has trouble modeling major 4EB strikes on open ground, noting Cobra as an example], but then Germany didn’t have 1,500 (or whatever the actual number is) fighters nearby. John knew the attack was coming and didn’t allocate any fighters to defend the base. Part of that, I think, is shear stubbornness. He’s convinced himself that he’s the victim of abuse, so he’d rather take the abuse so that his visibility as a victim isn’t tarnished by tactics that might suppress the victimization. I don’t know that that’s what’s going on, but I think it’s possible, both with 4EB and Death Star.

Yet John continues to play faithfully, even while absorbing immense punishment every turn. What a trooper he is! He deserves so much credit for soldiering through this mess – soldiering through even when he thinks he’s been unfairly treated. I’m really impressed with his resolve.

I try to send John occasional humorous messages that always include an underlying word of encouragement. But sometimes empathy can come across as pity, which is maddening. I’m trying to avoid that at all costs, because he’s taking enough abuse in the game that he doesn’t need pity making him feel all the worse.

The best thing that can happen now is for me to do everything possible to end the game as soon as possible. It’s getting close. Then he can receive accolades and commiserations for what he’s endured. Perhaps he’ll learn a bit from what’s happened (probably not – he’s smart but stubborn and set on his views). And then he’ll be able to launch his new game vs. Big Red. It’ll be fun to watch that!

Thanks for chiming in with good thoughts.

[Canoerebel]

At lunch today, I read part of the prologue to The Day of Battle. It's as good as the prologue to Guns at Last Light, which is about the finest writing possible (the prologue to An Army at Dawn is good, but not as good as the other two in the Liberation Trilogy). The author, Atkinson, notes that in 1943, the United States manufactured more airplanes (82,000) than the rest of the world combined, and more tanks (30,000) than Germany built from 1939 to 1945. We all know what happened when Japan "woke the sleeping giant," but it really was staggering.

In the game, the British aircraft pools are and have always been empty (except Spit VIIIs and some of the naval aircraft). I have no RAF 4EB and 2EB. As for the Americans, I'm low on all bombers. I have 30 B-24Ls in stock. There are no B-25s to speak of. The B-29 pools are low. Fighter numbers are pretty good. On the map, I'm struggling a bit, though John doesn't know it. Most of my B-24 squadrons are flying at 1/2 or 1/3rd numbers now. I'm having some difficulty producing enough trained pilots to handle my fighters. The Marine and Army fighter pilot pools are in pretty good shape, but Navy pilot pools are sparse. To John it seems that the number of Allied planes attack is unending but it's actually a bit tenuous. But there's no sense of alarm with the end of the game so close.

Allied supply in Korea is sufficient to see the war through. At present there's about 1.2 million supply there. China is beginning to get a bit low - the bases, not the ground troops. If the game seemed likely to last another month or two, I'd now detach DS to head south for supply TF escort duty. But with only about two weeks left to go, in all likelihood, I'll keep DS on station. If supply in Korea drops to 750k, I'll detach DS unless victory is a day or two away. In a way I wish there was enough time to detach DS and handle the invasion of Java. The troops and ships are ready to go. But the war can be won in Korea and China and the Home Islands. No sense in taking the foot off the gas pedal.

[FlyByKnight]

ORIGINAL: Dirtnap86

They will make nice trophies

It'll be Kaga and Akagi getting the canned sunshine treatment instead of Sister Sara in this timeline I guess.

Crossroads will probably be an all-IJN experience at this rate.

[Canoerebel]

In the war, the Allies torched Tokyo from two bases: Saipan and Tinian. If the Allies largely relied on those two bases in the game, they'd lose 85% of their B-29s and score about 1,000 strategic points, if that. The Japanese player would clean his clock. Production of advanced air frames and pilot training are the main reasons, of course.

In the game, the Allies have been bombing Japan from Korea for several months - from level 9 airfields packed with supply and aircraft. And before that, the same was taking place from multiple huge airfields in China, and Taiwan, and Luzon. Despite that massive advantage and all the other advantages (Death Star, 4EB vs. ground troops, etc.), this game is going to end in May 1945. That's just three months before the actual end. Many, many factors enter into that (certainly, some Forumites believe, operator error and inability), but the main reason is that Japan is awfully tough to beat under the Victory Points system. There's almost no way to achieve AV in 1944 (3:1? No way.).

Japan has gotten pretty torched in this game, and the fact that the Allies are bombing from Korea as opposed to distant Tinian and Saipan is a great barometer as to just how hard Japan has been hit. But Japan is tough and resilient in capable hands and probably even in incapable hands if the Allied opponent is also incapable.

[JohnDillworth]

[/quote]

In the war, the Allies torched Tokyo from two bases: Saipan and Tinian. If the Allies largely relied on those two bases in the game, they'd lose 85% of their B-29s and score about 1,000 strategic points, if that. The Japanese player would clean his clock. Production of advanced air frames and pilot training are the main reasons, of course.

Well, not really. If you were to use historical aircraft production and training Japan would be dust.....just like in real life. On a good day Japan was putting up dozens, not hundreds of interceptors. And crap ones at that. On a good night? a few. The planes and pilots that Japan was sending to intercept B-29's were not up to the job. They had more success ramming than shooting. Most of them could not really get to altitude and speed to make more that an occasional pass.

[Canoerebel]

I meant "in the game." If the Allies relied on the Marianas for strat bombing in the current game, with Japanese production, etc., they'd get killed. In the game, strat bombing from Saipan/Tinian would be feeble. That's just another illustration of how different the game is from the real war.

[Canoerebel]

4/27/45

Intel Screen: A good day for the Allies, mainly due to the near-destruction of the main IJ army in the Kaifeng Pocket.

I'll post a "big picture" screenshot later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Canoerebel]

4/27/45

China: The Allies reaped a lot of points today from the near-destruction of the IJ army in the Kaifeng Pocket. There's not much left to do in China shy of Peiping and Tientsin. There might be time remaining to arrive at the former and perhaps even take it. But the hourglass is nearly empty.

[Canoerebel]

4/27/45

Korea: Allied army moving forward in good order. The final battles of southern Korea will take place over the next week or two.

Home Islands: The Allies have milked southern Japan about as much as possible. To finish the game, I'll have to take on John's well-defended bases in middle Japan. Death Star might lend a hand.

[BillBrown]

I see port symbols on a number of cities in Japan, could there be points to be made using your 2 engine bombers on those targets? Just a thought.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, good thought. Many ports have 5 or 10 or so small fry. To this point it hasn't been worth targeting them since strategic bombing offered a more direct return. But now that is a viable source of points. Thanks for the suggestion.

[JeffroK]

One "problem" with the VP system is that it is "calibrated" against Scen1.

The many mods which give the JFB extra toys still has the VP based on Scen1, I'm not sure how to go about it but the AFB should receive more points for capturing "Inner Defence Zone" bases in FIC, Taiwan, China, Korea etc.

Cant see 3-1 in 1944 unless the JFB was playing against me.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

One "problem" with the VP system is that it is "calibrated" against Scen1.

The many mods which give the JFB extra toys still has the VP based on Scen1, I'm not sure how to go about it but the AFB should receive more points for capturing "Inner Defence Zone" bases in FIC, Taiwan, China, Korea etc.

Cant see 3-1 in 1944 unless the JFB was playing against me.

This doesn't seem like as much of a problem to me as both sides know when they enter into the game that it's a tougher job and stacked more in Japan's favour. The resources though are not different and so Japan must also still run the economy and by the end that can be a scrape with more tools on the board.

The Japanese might hold the Allies off from strat bombing for slightly longer, and do slightly more in destroying Allied stuffs, but they also have more VPs on the table to harvest. There are more ships, more planes and more troops, and so by the end I think the Allies just have more points from those extras.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/27/45

... Home Islands: The Allies have milked southern Japan about as much as possible. To finish the game, I'll have to take on John's well-defended bases in middle Japan. Death Star might lend a hand.

Not necessarily ... especially if you anticipate heavy air losses. Remember each downed 4E gives Japan 2 VPs.

Singapore promises a good VP harvest. Currently it provides Japan with 540 VPs. If it's supply level drops to below it's required level, there is a drop in the VPs credited to Japan.

Better still is if Singapore becomes Allied owned when not only does Japan lose all 540 VPs but the Allies gain 2430 VPs. In that scenario the VP equation shown in post #13827 would change from Japan 77 884 Allied 150 520 (an Allied shortfall for auto victory of 52488) to Japan 77 340 Allied 152 950 (a shortfall of 1738). To which the VPs gained from destroying enemy devices in the process of capturing Singapore would be added.

In short capturing Singapore negates the need to conduct a costly air campaign over the rest of Japan.

If enemy air resistance over Tokyo et al is not fierce then the strategic bombing would do. But I suspect it will be very fierce until air superiority is achieved. That could take some time and may well see progress towards auto victory crawl until air superiority is reached.

On the other hand enemy air resistance over Singapore will be less fierce plus the more air combat occurs, the quicker local supply gets depleted which benefits the VP equation plus makes it easier to capture the base. Provided you have the infrastructure a shift in the air offensive away from Japan towards Singapore could be very smart. Your opponent will not risk weakening his air defences over Tokyo et al, particularly if you keep the DS in the vicinity, but you can shift 2Es to hit Singapore AF and Port to destroy supply etc. Don't overlook fighter night raids against Singapore as Japan will not move NF units from Japan.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for those thoughts, Alfred. I've been mulling over how to "close the deal" - how to gross 5k or 6k points without giving John too many. Singers and Strategic Bombing and the inefficiencies of the air war have been the focus of my thoughts, with Peiping and Korea probably being the keys to the door. Peiping offers base points and points for IJ troops. Korea offers a lot of points for IJ troops.

Here's the latest on Singers. John is reinforcing there.

[Canoerebel]

There is a wildcard in the VP ratio that might work in favor of the Allies...I think: Ship losses.

There is often a lag between ships going down and the event being "confirmed" by the AI, with the points being awarded. The Allies haven't lost anything meaningful in ships in a long, long time. But Japan has lost a lot of ships recently, I think. There might be hundreds of points not yet credited in that category. Fog of War leaves me uncertain. Yesterday's clash between the Allied CL/DD TF and the Japanese replenishment TF is a good example. Perhaps a dozen high-value AOs and TKs were sunk or received heavy damage. I received credit for three of them but there's a chance eight or ten went under.

I'm interesting in seeing how FoW affects the AV calculation, if it does at all.

[Alfred]

Although fewer VPs will be in the equation Peiping is certainly a viable alternative, but in that case you must capture Peiping as the loss of VPs to Japan from undersupply is quite small.  Plus you will have to ensure overland supply gets there and that will require all Allied bases in the LOC be fully supplied.  Can you do that without redeploying the DS away from Japan and the latent threats it currently poses?
 
As to the Singapore garrison being reinforced.  The more mouths to feed, the greater the strain on the local supply depot.
 
Alfred

[Canoerebel]

I doubt I can get full supply to Peiping. Even if I dropped 500k supply at Shanghai, it would go hither and thither and only a bit would end up at Peiping. Some players could massage the flow and get it there but that's beyond my capability.

The Allied army in China will proceed forward until victory comes. I think China will contribute another 1k VPs to the total in the next week to ten days.

The enemy army in Korea is 150k. John's army will be eradicated within the next ten days, providing that DS does it's job of preventing a Dunkirk. And at least 500 points should come from base building. I think 1k to 2.5k points will be scored in Korea in the next ten days.

I doubt there's time left to handle Singers in such a way that it will really contribute (though I'm setting the table just in case the war drags on). So the remaining points needed will have to come from strategic bombing or the sinking of enemy ships. BillBrown's port-targeting idea was a good one. There's also a chance John will Banzai, prefering to go out with a bang rather than with a whimper, though that's unlikely.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I doubt I can get full supply to Peiping. Even if I dropped 500k supply at Shanghai, it would go hither and thither and only a bit would end up at Peiping. Some players could massage the flow and get it there but that's beyond my capability.

The Allied army in China will proceed forward until victory comes. I think China will contribute another 1k VPs to the total in the next week to ten days.

The enemy army in Korea is 150k. John's army will be eradicated within the next ten days, providing that DS does it's job of preventing a Dunkirk. And at least 500 points should come from base building. I think 1k to 2.5k points will be scored in Korea in the next ten days.

I doubt there's time left to handle Singers in such a way that it will really contribute (though I'm setting the table just in case the war drags on). So the remaining points needed will have to come from strategic bombing or the sinking of enemy ships. BillBrown's port-targeting idea was a good one. There's also a chance John will Banzai, prefering to go out with a bang rather than with a whimper, though that's unlikely.

Not sure if this would make an adequate difference but keep in mind that pulling out all but minimal troops/equipment in the city and turning off all building will minimize supply needed.

[Canoerebel]

That's a good idea too.

On a related note, if time remains in the game, that 11,000+ Allied army will soon be on the Manchuria border. Russian activation would be interesting. But I don't think there's enough time to trigger the interesting medium term things that might've happened - Russian activation, Singers falling, invasion of Java...and the invasion of Japan (all troops in Korea are prepping at about 50%, and Korea will be finished within two weeks).