Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[ny59giants]

The first thing, is to ask John if your playing through auto-victory. If so, then plan long term.
 
I would build up Burma - Akyab, Mandalay, and use your Chinese LCU's to take and hold Lashio. However, don't forward deploy too much as John may come back with his forces from Australia and land around Madras and/or Ceylon to cut you off.
 
Rather than the Central Pacific, what about going a little farther north and start taking all of Alaska back?? Your going to need a place that you can use attrition to your advantage and plus, this area is the most direct route to Japan.

[Canoerebel]

9/20/42 to 9/24/42
 
Gents, thanks for your comments and suggestions.  I hope this narrative will answer your questions.
 
Australia:  The Seige of Adelaide continues.  The Japs have well over 100,000 troops there, including six divisions, with an unmodified AV of about 2400.  The Allied garrison has an unmodified AV of 1300+ with forts nearing nine and about 90k supplies.  Allied bombers at the base took an unauthorized vacation for several days, but took to the skies on the 24th and got in some good licks at Adelaide and several other hexes.  John has Adelaide isolated - four armored units are across the river.  He used the "follow enemy units" feature to chase a ragtag group of Allied units to this point.  John has Whyalla up to a level 3 airfield, so bombers should begin hitting Adelaide now.
 
The Japs are landing 2nd Division at Hobart, Tasmania.  That accounts for the seven divisions known to be in Australia.  There are parachute regiments and some brigades in various places, including Broken Hill and Whyalla, but I don't know if other divisions are present yet.  One thing is for sure, until he takes Adelaide John has no chance of taking Melbourne and Sydney.  So I believe Australia is going to hold for awhile.
 
One of the KB detachments hit Brisbane on back-to-back days, damaging many merchant ships.  Some Allied ships are fleeing Melbourne and Sydney, some taking a southerly course, some a "run the blockade" route passing Raratonga, and others a "forlorn hopes" route through the Solomons.  Most of the KB seems to have pulled away to the NE, probably aiming to refuel and re-supply at Noumea.  John was probably out of sorties.
 
India:  I'm still assembling ships and troops at Bombay.  I still have grave reservations about moving on Sumatra, so this operation may never get underway.
 
Burma:  18th UK Division will arrive at Mandalay in two or three days, bringing the AV to about 1800 with forts 9.  Lashio is held by six or seven Chinese units, with two more on the way, and forts 6 or 7.  Akyab is held by Allied troops with an AV of about 350 and forts 8.  John hasn't made a move on any of these cities yet.  I had planned to make an across-the-river assault from Mandalay, but John recently reinforced that hex, which now has 40,000+ troops.  The hex adjacent to Lashio has but one unit - the 5th Division, which should be a bit fatigued, disorganized, and low on supplies.  The Chinese may move on it when the two reinforcing units arrive.
 
China:  Based upon an email comment, John is aware the Changsha troops are on the move (he reconned Changsha for the first time in awhile and probably noted the massive decrease in troop numbers).  The Chinese units are 18 miles from the hex adjacent to Nanchang.  John has but two units in this hex.  I haven't reconned Nanchang in awhile (part of my diversion effort aimed at making John think I was focusing on Canton).  Recon will begin tomorrow.  I think Nanchang has 11 units - but whether that's one division or nine I can't say.
 
CenPac:  Three divisions (1st and 2nd Marines, 37th Army) are loaded at Pearl.  But since the KB has left Australia for points north (probably Noumea), I want to wait awhile before I move.  I don't want to take a stab at Canton Island, Baker Island, or even Kwajalein until I'm sure I won't encounter the main KB. 
 
NoPac:  Remains quiet here.  In order to make a move, I would have to shift alot of assets from Pearl to the Aleutians, which would take time and which would put them on the edge of the map.  Right now I want my CVs in CenPac in case an opportunity arises to strike a Mini-KB.  Also, I think I want to try for a dagger to the heart (Kwajalein or something like it) rather than in the Aleutians.  I'm so far behind now that when the offensive begins I'll have to try something pretty bold.
 
Situation:  John has a huge force in Australia, but he has some challenges.  Sydney will be as tough or tougher than Manila, and Melbourne will not be much easier.  And before he can really go for them he has to take Adelaide.  This will take some time, even if he moves the Jap airforce here.  John will have alot of assets tied up in Australia for some time to come, at a time when the Allies are growing much stronger.  There are opportunities here, and danger too.  A bold strike at Kwajalein could be a great victory if it is lightly held, or a total disaster if he has a couple of divisions and 300 aircraft parked there.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

9/25/42 to 9/28/42
 
Adelaide:  The Jap seige continues, but they rested during this period, trying to recover from disruption and fatigue.  The Allied AV has increased to 1450+ (troops that were beaten down at Kalgoorlie and Alice Springs are receiving replacements) and forts just went to 9.  The besiegers received reinforcements too, a mixed brigade.  The Jap airforce at Whyalla - now a level 3 airfield - haven't made its presence known.  And why not, I wonder?  As noted in previous posts, John used four armor regiments to cut off the Allied path of retreat.  I sent the 4th Aussie Division forward from Melbourne in a relief effort, but at least one additional unit has crossed the river, so Adelaide may have to stand on it's own now.  It had better last a good long time.
 
Tasmania:  After the Jap 2nd Division took Hobart on the 24th, Hudsons and a B-25 squadron from Melbourne hit the port, damaging five APs.  2nd Division is chasing the Aussie base force across the island.
 
NE Australia:  The Japs landed and took both Rockhampton and Cooktown.  The brigades garrisoning Rock, Townsville, and Cairns had just moved south of the Rock, fortunately, but several base forces are hung up at Townsville.  I'm using transports to move them to Brisbane (with a layover in one of the interior towns).  The Rockhampton invasion included 56th Division, the eighth Jap division confirmed in Australia.  With two more known to be in Burma, that should leave the rest of the Pacific pretty empty (unless John has transferred more than the 2nd and 20th which are in Australia).  Brisbane sits on the only road south, so the Japs have to go through it.  I don't believe a single division can do it.  The garrison is about 350 with forts 9.  John will have to bring more.
 
SE Australia:  The Allies are contemplating the eventual final stands at Melbourne and Sydney if the Jap advances continue.  But right now the Japs seem a little dispersed - 6 div. at Adelaide, on in Tasmania, one at Rockhampton.  I'd be more worried if I was facing one massive army.
 
China:  The Changsha army entered a hex guarded by the Jap 22nd Division.  Most of the Chinese units (but not all) launched a deliberate attack on the 27th at 84:1 odds, forcing the Japs to retreat with losses of 930/53 to 1406/46/3.  The Chinese units will now advance on Nanchang.  I don't have any idea whether there is a realistic chance of taking the city.
 
Burma:  Nothing has changed here - I'm still awaiting at least one  more Chinese unit in Lashio before advancing a hex to take on the Jap 5th Division, the only unit in that hex at the moment.
 
Jap Intel?  Is John getting advice on the forum about his weak points?  Surely not!  He has so much more experience with the game; I'm a newb, so it would be ridiculous for him to be taking advice.  But I'm beginning to wonder.  In this AAR, I kick around the idea of invading Sumatra, and then this period I get SigInt that Jap units are moving to both Teloekbetong and Palembang. Coincidence?  Then I just saw that there's a thread running in John's AAR about Midway and Wake, after I've been discussing moving in that region.  Of course, John is experienced enough to evaluate his weaknesses and come up with all this on his own, but it has me scratching my head.
 
India:  So I'm growing less enchanted with the idea of invading Sumatra.  The Brits may just sit tight or try to move on the ground through Burma.
 
CenPac:  I will move here - and take big chances - if and when I confirm that the KB is still involved in Australia.
 
Summary:  The entire Jap army (it seems) is in Australia.  I cannot send relief troops to Australia.  And yet I think Australia can hold for quite some time, and possibly defeat the Japs if we get into next year.

[ctangus]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Jap Intel? Is John getting advice on the forum about his weak points? Surely not! He has so much more experience with the game; I'm a newb, so it would be ridiculous for him to be taking advice. But I'm beginning to wonder. In this AAR, I kick around the idea of invading Sumatra, and then this period I get SigInt that Jap units are moving to both Teloekbetong and Palembang. Coincidence? Then I just saw that there's a thread running in John's AAR about Midway and Wake, after I've been discussing moving in that region. Of course, John is experienced enough to evaluate his weaknesses and come up with all this on his own, but it has me scratching my head.

I don't think I've posted in this thread yet, but I've been reading both AARs. It's certainly an exciting game!

FWIW, I haven't noticed anything in John's AAR that resembles an intel leak. And as you said John's an experienced (and I'd add very good) player. I'd like to say a little more to assure you, but I'm not sure what I can say without providing an intel leak myself... I can understand your concern but IMO there's no need for it.

Well, good luck! [:)]

[Ron Saueracker]

You are not really in much of a position to counter attack anywhere I'd say. Time to hunker down and circle the wagons.

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/25/42 to 9/28/42

Adelaide: The Jap seige continues, but they rested during this period, trying to recover from disruption and fatigue. The Allied AV has increased to 1450+ (troops that were beaten down at Kalgoorlie and Alice Springs are receiving replacements) and forts just went to 9. The besiegers received reinforcements too, a mixed brigade. The Jap airforce at Whyalla - now a level 3 airfield - haven't made its presence known. And why not, I wonder? As noted in previous posts, John used four armor regiments to cut off the Allied path of retreat. I sent the 4th Aussie Division forward from Melbourne in a relief effort, but at least one additional unit has crossed the river, so Adelaide may have to stand on it's own now. It had better last a good long time.

...

You might want to consider turning replacements off for the Adelaide defenders. This way your supply will last longer and buys you what you need most right now... time.

[saj42]

If, as you say, you're having reservations about the Sumatra operation, how about something more ambitious that John would not consider - so it might work well.

I'm talking about loading up those Brit/Indian units and with the RN CVs and taking back PERTH.

Here's my reasoning:

1. It won't be expected.
2. With John's forces based forward at Whyalla and on Tasmania you will have little to fear from the IJAAF
3. All combat units appear to be in SE Oz
4. Now NE Oz is being over-run John's resupply convoys will be using that route from DEI to supply his army (not using the western route via Perth)
5. KB is operating in the Noumea/NZ/Melbourne triangle. It would take KB 4 days at full speed to reach Perth IF they were fully fuelled to make that run.
6. Create a diversion a week before landing at Perth using the USN carriers and the US Marines to pull KB further out of position (but nothing too risky)
7. John pursued you so quickly it's likely he hasn't bothered to build up the forts in Perth.

Logistics is going to be important. You'll need a lot of AKs with baseforce, aviation regt, engineers, air units, supplies and TKs with fuel to sustain the bridgehead.

BUT Perth has to fall on day 1 (OK maybe 2) for this to succeed.

What do you think????

[Alfred]

Canoerebel,
 
A long time ago, Speedy in his AAR against Fabertong, also wondered whether he was the victim of an enemy spy.  Do you have any units prepping for Sumatra/Midway, or reconning those areas that might alert your opponent?
 
Alfred

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Tallyho!

If, as you say, you're having reservations about the Sumatra operation, how about something more ambitious that John would not consider - so it might work well.

I'm talking about loading up those Brit/Indian units and with the RN CVs and taking back PERTH.

Here's my reasoning:

1. It won't be expected.
2. With John's forces based forward at Whyalla and on Tasmania you will have little to fear from the IJAAF
3. All combat units appear to be in SE Oz
4. Now NE Oz is being over-run John's resupply convoys will be using that route from DEI to supply his army (not using the western route via Perth)
5. KB is operating in the Noumea/NZ/Melbourne triangle. It would take KB 4 days at full speed to reach Perth IF they were fully fuelled to make that run.
6. Create a diversion a week before landing at Perth using the USN carriers and the US Marines to pull KB further out of position (but nothing too risky)
7. John pursued you so quickly it's likely he hasn't bothered to build up the forts in Perth.

Logistics is going to be important. You'll need a lot of AKs with baseforce, aviation regt, engineers, air units, supplies and TKs with fuel to sustain the bridgehead.

BUT Perth has to fall on day 1 (OK maybe 2) for this to succeed.

What do you think????

If you're lucky this would be a POW camp within a POW camp (Australia holds). If you're unlucky this would throw away valuable troops for no gains (Australai falls).
So I really doubt this is a good approach. I mean how would you supply the troops landed at Perth if he parks is carriers outside. And once he has one AF nearby the troops there and every supply you brought will be reduced quickly. Granted you buy some time, but where is the beef? What would you do with the time?

Without knowing the details and the available assets I think it woul dbe best to either go and grab easy stuff that threatens his heart, or you fight your way back to reestablish communication with Australia.

[Canoerebel]

9/29/42 to 10/5/42
 
Thanks for all the input, suggestions, encouragement, etc. 
 
Alfred, I don't think there's really a "spy" at work.  John is honest.  My thoughts ran to something less sinister - somebody in his forum offering innocent advice:  "Hey, John, are you watching your back door?  What if he invades Sumatra?"; or something like that.  I haven't been prepping for Sumatra, Wake, or Midway, so there's been nothing I've done that would prompt SigInt reports that would alert John.  It's probably just a coincidence, because he's certainly experienced enough to understand Allied capabilities at this point, evaluate where he's weak, and we've played several UV games before, so he's familiar with my approach.
 
Tallyho's suggestion - invade Perth! - was just the kind of back-door, suprise operation I would love to lauch.  I think it would work if I could quickly land about 2k AV with plenty of supplies.  But I don't have that many troops available, and what I do have is at Bombay.  It would take weeks to get them to Australia, and alot could happen in the meantime, so I passed on this idea after mulling over how fun it would be to do it. 
 
Ron, I don't think at this point in the game the Allies have to circle the wagaons.  You know we 
Americans aren't given to that kind of defensive thinking!  How about a Doolittle Raid!  No, I know what you mean; but the Allies need to apply pressure somewhere, but it should be a relatively safe operation.
 
Australia:  John hasn't moved forward yet; he's continuing to build up his bases at Whyalla and Broken Hill (Betties are based at both now) and I think he is doing the same at Hobart, Rockhampton, and Cooktown.  He's only bombarding at Adelaide.  I am continuing to accept reinforcements because quite a few of the units that arrived had been beat up in earlier battles.  The Allied AV is at 1500 now.  With forts 9 and 80k supplies, I think it's going to take John awhile to capture this base.  Allied bombers continue to hit Jap units in this and surrounding hexes.  4th Aussie Div. defeated one of John's tank regiments, but now faces four in a hex across the river from Adelaide.  I don't think this division can overcome 4 tank regiments, so I doubt I can lift the seige - John used his armor to create zone of control problems for the Allied troops in Adelaide.  I think this was a really gamey move, but tough luck for me.  Melbourne bombers have done a job on a number of Jap APs at Hobart.  Bettys have damaged a few ships at Melbourne.  CV Akagi was sighted at Hobart, but I'm not sure the bulk of the KB is here at the moment.
 
SoPac:  Various isolated Allied transports are moving from and to NZ both between the Tongas and south of the Societies.  John caught wind of this and moved bombers to the Tongas and has a surface force with Jakes trying to interdict the shipping.  Several transports have been sunk.  I'd like them to get through, but it's helpful to have an appearance of lots of shipping here, because that creates another target for John - a place he'd like to send CVs.
 
CenPac:  Quiet here.  Some of the transports that fled Australia a few weeks ago slipped by more northern routes.  One was sunk north of Kwajalein, but several made it safely after taking a more southerly route near Canton Island.  Some of those AKs are now posted in an arc SE, E, and NE of Canton Island.  None have been sighted.  I think (but I am by no means sure) that the Allies could sneak pretty close to Maloelap, Wotje, and Kwajalein without detection.  The US CVs left Pearl weeks ago and moved SE to a point near Christmas Island, then NW to take station between Christmas and Palmyra.  Now they are awaiting arrival of transports loaded with three divisions and other units.  The Allies may try an invasion; or I could get cold feet and pull back.  (I sure hope there isn't a leak of this info).
 
Burma:  Both sides bomb the other side - I don't think John can move forward here, and I doubt that I can right now.  So the Allies hold Akyab, Mandalay, and Lashio and wait for an opportunity.
 
China:  The Chinese units moving toward Nanchang are moving slowly.  I have more than 8k AV, but John now has 15 units - some 150k men - in Nanchang.  With 9 forts, I don't think I have a prayer there.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

[saj42]

The Perth operation was a long shot - didn't really know how many assets you have spare up in India.

Re the map you put up on post 136. Some of the bases bypassed by John in DEI and Borneo are still Allied. At some point I'd want to mop up those bases (not garrison them) to force the allies to re-invade rather than walk safely ashore come 43/44. Have you noticed any of these bases falling in recent turns?
Pity you don't have enough subs and expendable LCUs to upset his composure by re-occupying one [:D]

[Canoerebel]

10/6/42 to 10/10/42
 
Australia:  In a bit of a surprise, 4th Aussie Division drove back four tank regiments 120 miles, including a contested river crossing.  I didn't think this unit was strong enough, but weeks of campaigning apparently wore out the Japs, along with repeated Allied bombing attacks and an ill-advised (I think) shock attack by the tank units against 4th Div. on the 6th.  These defeats reopened the road to Melbourne, which I had feared was permanently closed.  But do I WANT to pull out of Adelaide?  I'm torn - Adelaide has 8 forts and plenty of supplies.  I've compromised by ordering some HQ and base force units to move out toward Melbourne.  I'll debate what to do with the rest of the garrison for a few more days.  (Note, a Jap deliberate attack against Adelaide on the 8th - before the seige lifted - reduced forts to 8 but came off at 0:1 and cost the Japs 2k+ to 1k+ casualties).
 
The Jap 2nd Division took Devonport, Tasmania, on the 10th.  A stout part of the KB is cruising just to the NE and put up 100+ Zeroes on CAP; a few TiVs and Beauforts sortied out of Melbourne, but were squashed.
 
A tiny Jap paratroop force took an unoccpied town west of Sydney.  I had a brigade on the road to Melbourne that would have taken care of this force, but the brigade sidestepped the town for some reason.  I've ordered them back in.
 
The Japs haven't moved south from Rockhampton yet, nor has the Cooktown force moved south.
 
Australia summary:  John is landing alot of troops all over the place, but I still have hopes for the SE corner of Australia.   
 
NZ:  Another Mini-KB is patrolling waters NE of Auckland and ravaged an AK convoy and a TK convoy. 
 
SoPac:  John has several combat patrols south of the Societies tracking miscellaneous isolated transports.  A few have been damaged and sunk by Betties out of the Tongas, but the ship-launched Jakes are ineffectual.  My hope is that these targets tempt John into sending CVs this way.  Also, while many empty ships have been fleeing east and NE, a few scattered AKs with a big base force have been steaming west toward NZ.  So far each of them has managed to make the run unscathed.  Three are now nearing NZ.
 
CenPac:  The Allies are rolling the dice, and I nearly called it off today.  A big invasion TF is steaming WSW from the general vicinity of Johnston Island toward Wotje/Maloelap/Kwajalein.  They could very well be steaming right into the teeth of the KB.  Since John has taken several bases in SE Australia and has Betties based there, he may have decided that he could spare the KB to head north to deal with the threats I've tried create against Midway.  After debating long and hard, I've decided to proceed.  One reason is that I do have isolated AKs stationed between the target hexes and my invasion and cover TFs.  Hopefully I would get some warning.  I've just about decided to send the invasion in against Wotje, a level 4 airfield and level 1 port.  If things go well, I could make a quick try for Maloelap.  The benefit of this invasion is that it forces John to choose between Australia and the Allied invasion.  I think it gives him two pressing needs whereas until now he's had but one, and that one of his own choosing.  If my invasion gets clobbered, it might be time for me to consider an unconditional surrender.
 
China:  I think my army is two days from Nanchang.  Average prep is 90+ now.  The Japs have 180k troops and 15 units in Nanchang, so I don't think the Chinese are going to take the city.  I'll give it a good stab or two and then pull back if it looks like a developing quagmire.

[Canoerebel]

10/11/42 and 10/12/42
 
Australia:  The Japs have moved forward another armored unit - or recycled one of the first four - to create more zone of control problems for the Allies.  During the window of opportunity, two HQ units and some three or four small base forces made their escape and are on the road to Melbourne.  I probably should have extracted the big infantry and armor units also, but just couldn't make myself give up Adelaide.  Another Jap deliberate attack (this on the 11th) reduced forts to 7 and again came off at 0:1 with the Japs losing 1792/108/3 to 955/49.  The Jap AV of 1920 was adjusted to 1008.  The Allied AV of 1349 was adjusted to 1392.
 
Gamey?  John's use of his armor in this Australia campaign has really bothered me.  First he used the "follow enemy" routine to move his four armor units across vast amounts of terrain in a short period of time to isolate Adelaide; now he's used these weak units to freeze the Allied units in Adelaide.  Is it gamey to use armor in this fashion?  I think so, but perhaps I'm just cranky.
 
Jap CVs:  Allied recon from Melbourne and other fields has sighted various Jap CVs near Tasmania the past few days including Junyo, Hiyo, Kaga, Akagi, and several CVLs and CVEs.  I know that there is another CV force north of New Zealand.  So hopefully John doesn't have an overwhelming force near Kwajalein, because he's about to have dozens of juicy targets.
 
CenPac:  Jap recon sighted one of the US picket ships NE of Wotje, but no bombers sorted (Kwajalein and Maloelap both have airfields with aircraft of some sort).  Tomorrow the bulk of the Allied invasion fleets will be stationed just 300 miles from Wotje and Maloelap.  The fun is about to commence for one side or the other.  I'm tempted to roll the dice and try for Kwajalein, but I think I'll focus on Wotje with hopes of following quickly for Maloelap if these bases aren't strongly held.
 
China:  The Chinese army arrived in Nanchang today.  A shock attack ordered for tomorrow.  Most of my units are 20 disruption, 60 fatigue or thereabouts.

[ny59giants]

The question about Adelaide is can you afford to have those units isolated and lost?? It may take time for John  to wipe them out completely, but your combat reports show that the forts are going down too fast, IMO. Thus, it will mean the base may fall sooner rather than later and then it will be just time before the units are destroyed. There is no terrain modifier and that hurts you after you lose the base (which will be less than one month, IMO).
 
The issue of armor units following your retreating units, I feel this one is not gamey, but would be if he was using infantry to do so. Too many European theater games under my belt to feel armor should not be able to exploit combat results.
 
I hope your Central Pacific operation comes off.  

[Lameduck]

    Hi, if you don't mind advice from someone who's been reading AAR's for a couple of years, but have never posted before, I think you should take a step back and not feel like you need to do something right now to turn things around.  You remind me of the Allied player in the Clash of Steel AAR who, when he started to loose India, launched an invasion of Java to distract the Japanese.  It was a disaster that set the Allies back even further, but the Allies were able to return as you can see in that AAR.
 
   I know I'm not an expert, but I would say see where you can use your LBA to grind him into dust.  So my question is "How are your airbases in and around Burma?"  Instead of trying something big and flashy, why not set yourself the goal of gaining control of the skies over Burma, then use your LBA to disrupt his army, and then slowing steamroller across Indo-China under the cover of your LBA.

[Canoerebel]

10/13/42 to 10/15/42
 
Invasion of Wotje/Malolap:  The US invasion TFs arrived within 60 miles of both Wotje and Malolap before Jap recon picked them up.  John was surprised and I was half right - one of the two islands (Wotje) is lightly held.  Early recon reports indicated both were lightly held, so I divided my forces between the two islands.  John, recognizing that Wotje was the more vulnerable, reacted by sending in two powerful combat TFs to contest the landings.  The first, anchored by BB Heie, got the best of a surface engagement with a TF anchored by BB Mississippi and got in amongst some transports, sinking several.  The second, anchored by BB Kirishimi, inflicted more damage on the Mississippi TF.  These engagements ensured that the Allies landings were sporatic and unsuccessful.  Over at Malolap, the landings were relatively uncontested, but the garrison strong enough that it easily defeated the troops as they came ashore. 
 
The day prior to the landings, Jap Betties from Kwajalein hit the American carriers, which only put up light CAP and a soft defense.  One wave of 45 Betties got through and finished off CV Wasp.  I ordered the remaining three CVs to withraw towards Johnston Island.  They TFs separated and CV Hornet got picked off on the invasion day.  For reasons I cannot fathom, Hornet didn't even have CAP although she was set at 70%.
 
So it's fair to say that the invasion is a disaster at the moment, but I'm not giving up.  I've redirected everything to Wotje.  I have enough combat ships to put up a decent fight.  I'll give it another day or two.
 
Part of the problem has been that I've been squeezing in fast turns between a busy schedule at work - we're proofing our next issue; so I've been sloppy.  I can believe how sickening a game - a simple game! - can make one feel.  It's almost like grief to experience a big defeat. 
 
Australia:  My Adelaide troops seem to be free of zone of control problems, but for some reason didn't march this turn and reset to defend.  I've issued marching orders again.  The defense of SE Australia actually seems to be going decently.  Sydney and Melbourne are going to be tough fortresses that should hold for a long time, and I think Brisbane can hold against at least one division and that's all John has to the north (to my knowlege) at this point.
 
China:  The shock attack at Nanchang was a disaster - 8000+ AV Chinese against 7 Jap divisions with 9 forts.  The Japs lost 1902/46/1 to 17,046/348/20.  That showed me all I need to know - Nanchang is held strongly enough that I'm not going to take it.  So I issued orders for my troops to pull back a hex.  Once again, my troops ignored marching orders and reset to defend.  So I'm trying again.  I want to pull them back to Changsha and come up with some new idea.
 
Situation:  Bleak.
 
 

[Jzanes]

I suspect your units aren't moving because your opponent's bombardments are cancelling out your move orders. in order to move you need to set your move order to a base. so to move from adelaide, i'd tell my units to move to melbourne and to move from nanchang i'd tell them to move to changsha. once they move out of the occupied hex you can cancel their move and hold the hex or continue on to the city.

hope this helps.

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
...

Situation: Bleak.

Good to see you're still optimistic. [;)]

Seriously, your situation is really grim and you are surely behind the historical schedule. On the bright side you have nothing left to loose from now on but everything to win.
I firmly believe that you can turn this game back on track for the allies. I understand you've been hit by strange game behaviour and some real life constraints and it is surely not an easy task, but doable I believe. Keep your spirit up.

[Cathartes]

Hang in there.  It's humbling and demoralizing to be licked, but you gain something when you hit bottom and make it back to the surface. I think many on this forum have been there. Take a break, detach.

The art of this game is in the daily process, fullfillment is elusive, victory anticlimactic, surprise and dissapointment is in every turn. I'm not trying to throw up a BS Zen smoke screen here, but the moment we commit to go the distance we don't imagine the worst will happen. 

You now have one of the greatest strategic challenges ahead of you, and nothing less than the free world is at stake.  Regroup, dig in, plan, be patient, learn from your mistakes. Think of all those Essex Class carriers coming! The game mechanics can be demoralizing at times, but it will also affect your opponent in the future. 

I hope your real life situation and time invested will allow you to continue, a lot of folks are enjoying and learning a lot from your AAR (me included).  I think your opponent was a chess master in a former life.  If you can stick it out, I'm rooting for the underdog.

[Canoerebel]

10/16/42
 
Thanks, gents, for the many encouraging words and humor.  Much appreciated.

John, who is a good guy who I have known for years - he and I played deeply into two UV campaigns and now this WitP marathon - offered to give me a mulligan after Hornet failed to put up any CAP.  That was a kind gesture.  I declined on the basis that I've made my bed so I'm gonna lie in it.  Besides, if I come back and whup up on him, I don't want that whuppin' to be tainted by a mulligan.

Marshalls:  Naval clashes once again occurred at Wotje.  A powerful TF led by BB Kirishima and a number of CAs including Suzuya and Mogami, faced three Allied TFs, each led by a BB - Mississippi, South Dakota, and Washington in that order.  The Japs scored more hits, but those landed by the Allies seemed to be big caliber.  Kirishima, Suzuya, and Mogami were left smoking and several DDs heavily damaged.  The Allied BBs got off pretty much scott-free during these naval clashes, but CL St. Louis and about ten DDs were heavily damaged.  The Allied TFs performed adequately, but I was disappointed that the two "fresh" BB TFs didn't wreak havoc on the already bloodied Kirishima TF when their turns came.  The surface combat prevented the Japs from getting in amongst the transports this time.  Jap bombers sortied from Kwajalein, Maloelap, and somewhere far to the SE (Canton?) during the afternoon and put three torps into Mississippi, but she was only lightly damaged.  A number of transports were sunk by aircraft, but it wasn't by any means a bloodbath.  During the afternoon, the auto-shock attack succeeded in taking the island from the Japs with a 7:1 attack.  With most of a base force already ashore and Wotje a level 4 airfield, the Allies transfered in about 150 aircraft - the Wildcat squadrons from the two remaining US CVs (which are far to the east and hopefully out of range of Jap aircraft), two P38 squadrons, a SBD squadron from CVE Long Island, and a big B17 squadron from Canton Island.

The taking of Wotje is potentially a major event in the game.  IF - and I realize it's a big if right now - the Allies can hold this base, it gives them a big headstart when it's time to take the offensive.  By launching this suprise invasion now, the Allies avoided having to try for the first Jap-held base later in the game, when John might have had the entire KB at his disposal, plus the many other units, ships, and aircraft currently tied up in Australia.  I did not relish the prospect of trying to land at Bora Bora, Pago Pago, or Canton Island with the entire Jap military ready and waiting.  Now if I can hold Wotje there's a chance the Allies can simply bypass those islands and work deeper into the heart of Japanese territory.  That's a huge headstart, perhaps giving me 6 months, and I probably would have lost more than the two CVs and one BB (and quite a few other, smaller ships) had I waited until later in the game to get underway.

But holding Wotje is gonna be tough.  I have an MLE about five hexes away.  I hope she can avoid bombers tomorrow.  ML Oglala and about five DMs are also on the way, but two or three days out.  Mining Wotje heavily is a priority.

The Allies will have most of two Marine divisions, a CD unit, a Raider battalion, an EAB, and a big base force on the island.  Getting the island adequately supplied is going to be tough, but another priority.

The other imporant factor in this is that its a big poke into John's belly at a time he was focusing solely on Australia.  Wotje has to worry him.  He'll either have to ignore it (if having quite a few powerful surface combat TFs in the area can be considered ignoring it) or he'll have to divert some of the assets currently in ANZAC.  I think the multitude of Betties came from Australia, for I haven't faced any massed bomber raids against Brisbane in several days.  That may be a small return on the invesement.

Australia:  My Adelaide garrison refused to march again, so I followed the advice given and set them to march to Melbourne rather than to the adjacent hex.  There aren't zone of control issues at the moment, so there's a chance I can extract them.  I still feel pretty good about SE Australia.  Sydney is fine with AV 1400 and 9 forts; Brisbane is adequate with AV 350 and forts9; Melbourne is understaffed with AV 600 and forts 9, but most of the Adelaide force will come here.  Also, there's one more Aussie brigade on the way to Melbourne from the north and it has an open road, so at a minimum, even if the Adelaide force gets cut off again, Melbourne's AV will be well over 700.  How tired will John's troops be after the battles at Adelaide?  The Aussie's get another division in about 3 or 3.5 months.  Can I hold that long?

China:  The Chinese units at Nanchang refused to march for the same reasons as the Adelaide troops, so I've issued orders to pull back to Changsha.  I've got to get these guys out of there.  I'll leave a strong contingent in Changsha, but a sizeable number of these guys are gonna prep for Hanoi and move out quickly.