Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. Bigred (A).

[FatR]

AE Transportation Magic

Well, the speed with which resources and supply can be moved by road in AE is nothing short of magical. Singapore FINALLY fell on March 25, and by the end of the same day, huge piles of supply and resources from Cam Rahn Bay were relocated there. Oh well. Time to reroute my convoys.

Meanwhile, harsh lessons need to be drawn from the horrible Singapore meatgrinder (which, I'm sure, would have continued for about two months more, if not for reinforcements from Philippines). Past the artillery nerf, it seems to be extremely hard to evict Allied forces from there, due to terrain. Even if you reduce forts, the negative AV modifier is just too huge. I believe at least 2500 AV are now needed to quickly take Singapore if the entire Malaya Army retreats there. Things become even worse, if Allies commit 18th Division to Singapore.

This means, that unless the Japanese player successfully pulls off the Mersing Gambit (which I failed to do), or the Allied players makes the huge mistake of actually fighting on the peninsula, it is probably better to leave Singapore alone, until DEI and Bataan are cleared. And if you don't, you should not hesitate to sacrifice your aviation to keep the forts down after the initial assault. Otherwise, Allied troops will gain experience and city will become much harder to take.

[FatR]

Quirks of Training

When making March 26 turn I started transferring IJNAF pilots to reserve, in anticipation of major air gring over Hawaii (by the way, 24th Sentai is currently in the process of moving to Hawaii - on Maloelap at the moment - to supplement Navy guys and shift a part of the burden on the more pilot-rich Army airforce). These mostly consisted of pilots from seaplane units, who trained on sweep, to increase Air skill of the pilots. Unfortunately, looks like the primary mission of the unit and not the highest skill determines the kind of reserve pilots end up in. So, a whole bunch my Air 65-71 pilots ended up in patrol reserve, from which they must be extracted manually... I'm not sure if this hassle is worth extra fighter pilots in the long run, but at the moment three more dozens of well-trained fighter jockeys are invaluable.

[FatR]

Raid on Oahu, March 26

On March 26, I sent an SCTF comprised of four old destroyers (Nagatsuki, Minekaze, Asagao and Fuyo) to raid Oahu hex and check if it is possible to do so without running into mines/coast defenses. They were set to full speed and had retirement allowed. After brushing aside a PT boat TF, my destroyers clashed with the Allied TF, consisting of
DD Maury and DMS Boggs, Chandler and Wasmuth. Neither side took significant damage and my SCTF, after using up nearly all of its ammo, successfully retreated to Hilo before the Allied aircraft could take off.

On the same night, my screening DD SCTF before Kona found but failed to engage a Philippinian xAKL, doing something sneaky on the approach to Hilo.

As day broke out, search planes from KB, which just moved to the east of PH, to search for a convoy, spotted the previous day by Mavises from Kona, found all those ships in the attack range. Three strike groups sortied, sinking the xAKL and probably all three of the minesweepers (the least damaged one took a torp). As the minesweeper TF was one hex from Oahu, the cost was not light. Almost 20 carrier plane were shot down or crashed during the day, including about a dozen of Zeros (another combat with Zero losses took place against Flying Fortresses that attacked Kona - unsuccessfully and losing 5 of their number during the day - so it is not clear how many carrier Zeros were lost), and almost all carried their pilots to watery graves with them. Allies lost 24 US fighters during this day, hopefully mostly with pilots, due to fighting over the open sea, yet my pilots are way more valuable. This exchange was in Allied favor. Mostly because I'm no longer confident, that with accumulating Zero losses KB can challenge Allied CVs without fighter cover from Kona. KB has enough fuel still, and only Akagi is short on torpedoes, so I might try to replenish a couple of the most beaten-up squadrons by landing them at Kona and trying to take new planes and pilots as if they were normal land-based squadrons.

Meanwhile, the assault on Hilo managed to took forts to 0 before stalling. The airfield is pretty wrecked by two consecutive battleship bombardments, so I believe Allies won't be able to raise the forts before my troops recover from disruption and fatigue.

[FatR]

March 27, Good and Bad News

As about bad news, Yubari finally started attacking my communications. His cruisers slipped to Kwajalein, just one day after Mini-KB left the vicinity and found an emply xAKL TF, that was the part of gathering of ships for amphibious assaults after the expiration of the amphibious bonus. Results were messy:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Johnston Island at 163,111, Range 11,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
PB Magane Maru, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
xAKL Takegawa Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Shinrei Maru, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
xAKL Toten Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Hinode Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Yuki Maru, Shell hits 2
xAKL Shinmei Maru, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
xAKL Dori Maru, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
xAKL Gyoku Maru, Shell hits 1
xAKL Hiyori Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Shinshui Maru, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
xAKL Naruo Maru, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Eiwa Maru, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
xAKL Sakae Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Astoria, Shell hits 1
CA San Francisco
CL Detroit
DD Shaw
DD Reid, Shell hits 1
DD Tucker
DD Downes

Only two xAKLs survived. At least they missed troop- and supply-loaded TFs that also departed a day before. But the fact that the naval search once again did jack to detect the raiders, despite units on Midway and Johnston itself is disturbing. Thankfully the most critical phase of the invasion is now passed. I still should have been much more careful with planning my convoys, particularly because now I technically can provide decent cover to my shipping in the area, something that wasn't really possible a week ago.

The worst thing, though, instead of creating the situation where I can inflict damage on the Allied fleet, the invasion of Hawaii so far create the situation where my own fleet suffers severe damage. While drain on Allied plane pool is apparently severe (my esteemed opponent even stood down that pesky AVG), ship-wise the campaign goes hugely in the Allied favor so far.

In good news, Japanese Southern China army just broke the back of the main Chinese force in the region, catching it in the open terrain one hex southeast of Nanchang:

Ground combat at 85,55
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 68797 troops, 687 guns, 206 vehicles, Assault Value = 2285
Defending force 79426 troops, 466 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2387
Japanese adjusted assault: 1161
Allied adjusted defense: 188
Japanese assault odds: 6 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2204 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 309 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 200 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled

Allied ground losses:
10693 casualties reported
Squads: 1569 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 945 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 24 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 17 (17 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 9

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
Assaulting units:
15th Division
12th Ind.Mixed Brigade
1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
39th Division
115th Infantry Regiment
22nd Division
60th Division
17th Division
Shanghai SNLF
58th Division
138th Infantry Regiment
13th Army
RGC Army
4th Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
26th Chinese Corps
58th Chinese/B Corps
86th Chinese/B Corps
72nd Chinese Corps
78th Chinese Corps
86th Chinese/C Corps
74th Chinese Corps
88th Chinese Corps
58th Chinese/C Corps

Chinese had about 4000 AV when they started their retreat from Pucheng to the north and then to the west. In four battles since then, they permanently lost approximately 2100 AV (1 Chinese infantry squad = 1 AV) from this number. As the ground combat reports are FOWed, the actual results might differ by a hundred or two squads in one direction or another, but still, I think I can safely assume that the half of the main southern Chinese army is gone. Japanese lost less than twenty combat squads destroyed, although a tank regiment that interdicted the road southwest of Nanchang was routed two turns ago (supplies still apparently failed to flow to Chinese in time), so vehicle losses are somewhat noticeable. Still, this is nothing short of a great result, particularly considering that Japanese ground troops production exceeds Chinese by a huge margin. My strategy of concentrating the main force at Pucheng and isolating the region by armored units was very successful, although I must say, this probably the case of a campaign won by sheer persistence in following the plan and enemy mistakes rather than by any particular brilliance. In particular, Yubari could have created a disastrous supply situation for my troops in Pucheng if he only commanded his corps evicted from Foochow in February to continue holding my pursuing forces in the forest between Foochow and Pucheng, which it was capable of doing, thus preventing me from taking control of the hexside on Foochow-Pucheng road and establishing supply flow from the coast.

[FatR]

March 28: Disaster!

This day will go down in history as the day of the biggest Japanese plane losses on the ground since beginning of the war. The most infuriating part of this lies in the fact, that so much was done to prevent exactly this scenario. I had a radar-equipped AAA unit in Kona, KB one hex from there and dozens of Zeros on patrol, specifically to offset the vulnerability of staking 100+ planes on a level 1 airfield. Nothing helped in the slightest, as the large Allied raid was detected only in 18 NM (much less than distances at which Chinese infantry usually detects incoming bombers), went in undisrupted (7 Allied fighters bought the farm for one Zero, still no consolation), faced, as far as I can tell, no defensive flak, and, in the clear weather, destroyed no less than 58 Zeros and Mavises on the ground, also wrecking the airfield massively just before it could have upgraded to level 2.

Not only these plane losses are quite bad (half of monthly Zero production), this crap means that the Kona airfield stands a good chance of being suppressed forever, and we need to take Hilo ASAP. 24th Regiment is on the way from Kona, at the moment, and it should be enough to overrun the defenders and force a capitulation.

To add injury to injury, the force of American PT boats once again broke through to the beach at Kona, despite two patrolling SCTFs, and sank APD Hagi an a large xAK, the latter by goddamn 0.50 machinegun fire, which ignited the fuel load. Two torpedo boats were sank in return, which was no consolation.

These abject failures despite all the precautions against exactly what Allied did are disheartening to say the least.

[HMS Resolution]

ORIGINAL: FatR
...destroyed no less than 58 Zeros and Mavises on the ground, also wrecking the airfield massively just before it could have upgraded to level 2.

Holy crap!

[FatR]

You bet. This battle of Hawaii already tests the limits of my fighting spirit. I can only hope that taking a bunch of prisoners at Hilo will compensate the recent misfortunes somewhat. I also started to redeploy my subs into a more offenisive position, because cordons around Hawaii meet practically nothing.

In other news, the large Chinese army at Nanyang slipped away before being counterattacked by my main force. I don't have enough AV to challenge them in open terrain, so it is back to previous positions.

[topeverest]

You should be able to wipe the Chinese board unless they are in rough or woods. Chinese AV dont equal Empire AV

PH is a tough nut, and certainly it hasnt been any easier in your effort. Let me suggest you increase the committment / go for more islands in the chain to further isolate \ get more LBA involved or call it quits before the enemy gets that lucky battle result.

[FatR]

Argh, that was an obvious mistake about Chinese). I meant the forest right northwest of Nanyang. As about increasing the commitment, I need to haul more infantry from Home Islands and Singapore first. All I have in reserve are Naval Guard units.

[topeverest]

Can you perform sealane interdiction between PH and USA? Give him a piece of his own medicine by detaching a CV and patrolling about 20 hexes out. Make a hit and then change patrol zone? Anyway a thought

[FatR]

Overall Situation at the End of March

Japanese still cannot crack the defenses of Hilo! I tried a shock attack on March 31, trusting in recon, that still reported damage on the airfield (and therefore no forts). The attack met 2 forts reduced them to 1 and suffered 5:1 casualties (30:1, counting only combat squads). I'll try a deliberate attack on the next day, and if it fails, protracted siege will be the only recourse. Thankfully, some Sallies are already on the way to start working on suppressing Allied fortifications. And Kona now is a level 2 airfield, 1-2 turns away from being level 3. Japanese can actually outbuild early-game Allies in this mod! Most support units that once landed in Hilo marched to there now. And the concentration of flak increased to the point the gunners started taking down Allied recon planes.

Power of US LCUs is definitely a nasty surprise. 38th and 48th are (were, by now, considering likely experience drop) my toughest divisions, yet their experience advantage seemingly amounts to nothing.

Meanwhile, my subs spotted Repulse and a bunch of other British combat ships southeast of Ceilon. Unfortunately, the only torpedo from I-155 that impacted Repulse did not explode. I can only muster 2 CAs, 3 CLs and about 15 DDs in DEI at the moment (2 more CAs were disbanded to repair minor damage in Soerabaja, but looks like insidious Dutch shipyard engineers sabotage repairs, because they haven't advanced at all in several days). CLs and a bunch of DDs now patrol Malacca Strait. Netty coverage in DEI is pretty good, contrary to what Yubari might think, but most groups don't have Zeros to escort them...

These news caused me to abort convoy movements to Burma and landings at Northern Sumatra. The latter still must be executed soon, to deny Allies airfields from which to recon Singapore.

[janh]

Awesome AAR, FatR.  You are an extremely aggressive player, but watching an invasion of the Hawaiian chain unfold is of course always a highlight.  The Zero and Mavis losses due to the US bomber raid on the overstacked airfield were surely not nice, but counting the plane losses you inflicted previously, also not too serious.   Long term, if you can take and hold the other islands and Pearl, you will win an unsinkable CV which will pay off very well.

What LCU's do you presently have in this operation, and what else do plan to bring to reinforce?  Any units from Singapore or Java on plan for this?  I did such an invasion once in good old PacWar, and I recall it took me at least 5 or 6 division worth of forces to pull this off, as well as concentration of all CV and most BB/CA for almost 4 months.  And that despite having beaten the allied carries in battle decisively. 
What are your provision for protecting the KB, and where is mini-KB?  Are you constantly replenishing their fighter squadrons?  You appear to be handling your CV's extremely aggressively and always in sight of Hawaii, which surely does good to prevent major reinforcements from the West Coast.  But wouldn't you think this would present itself as an ideal situation for the allied player to scrape together all CV's he has and give battle with the advantage of his LBA nearby?  Or are you gambling for that?

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: topeverest
Can you perform sealane interdiction between PH and USA? Give him a piece of his own medicine by detaching a CV and patrolling about 20 hexes out. Make a hit and then change patrol zone? Anyway a thought

Unlike what some people think upon seeing my strategic plans, I'm actually a cautious player. The thought of detaching a carrier group that will certainly lose to US CVs if they met is anathema to me. Similarly, I do not dare to patrol sealanes with major surface combatants while Allied carriers lurk somewhere beyond my line of detection. But certainly, after LBA presence at Hawaii is established, Allied aviation is beaten into submission (which I believe is inevitable, given disparity in reinforcements and consistently inferior performance of Allied fighters so far), and both KB and mini-KB replenished their planes, I'll engage in large-scale raiding operations to isolate the theater.

[FatR]

Before I'll continue laying out the situation on March 31, which might take alot of time, I want to say, than on April 1 Allies launched a major raid against Kona (while 24th Sentai swept Lahaina and didn't find many targets, indicating only overbleeding CAP from Oahu), and the losses for the day looked like this:



Japanese pilot losses for the day were 3 men. Judging by Allied air performance, Yubari probably does not pay enough attention to pilot training, so losing a couple of dozens of semi-competent pilots today must hurt (I do not believe that an Allied player might sacrifice at least 1/3 of his total monthly fighter production at this stage just to obfuscate his pilot situation). So, at least my belief in the ability of Japanese airforce to suppress the Allied one had some foundation.

The attack at Hilo failed in the meantime. So, siege it is. I'll recon smaller islands to see if Japanese can land there while the bulk of the Southern Army is shipped from Singapore.


EDIT: To Jahn - Initially I was most afraid of LBA from Oahu and Allied CVs double-teaming the invasion fleet. At the moment I feel (by comments in emails and in-game events) that Yubari will not risk his force in a carrier battle. Until Kona airfield was operational, KB and Mini-KB hanged together, at the moment Mini-KB is at Kwajalein, waiting for Nisshin to join and for plane losses to replenish (Kwajalein was temporarily short on supplies). So, the devastating raid against Kona left me in quite a critical situation for a moment. I even contemplated retreating the fleet. But seeing the cautiousness of my opponent (at least where ships are concerned) I decided not to. And just now Yubari made keeping KB nearby not necessary anymore, so I'll retreat it as soon as the major supply convoy and the troop convoy that hauled reinforcements to Kona unload. Then they and battleships that blew their ammo bombarding Hilo will retreat under KB cover.

As about my further plans, I'll reveal them in the general theatres overview.

[FatR]

Victory Points at the End of March

I forgot to make a screenshot of the intelligence screen for March 31, here's the one for the next day. With the fall of Singapore, Japanese lead increased much. I also expect to rack up several hundred more points by cleaning remaining Dutch strongholds. Ship losses and lack thereof on the Allied side are still the sore point. By now I'm pretty sure that Nevada survived Pearl Harbor, and Marblehead dropped of the list of sunk ships. Whomever sends the latter under will receive a personal gratitude from the Emperor.

[FatR]

The Pacific

While Midway and Johnston were taken quite easily and with little loss, The Big Island turned out into our Guadalcanal in terms of both force pull and losses for little effect. Currently 38th and 48th Divisions, 16th, 17th and 24th Regiments are besieging Hilo and all of these units are in quite bad shape after fruitless assaults, needing at least two weeks of complete rest before they can reach anything near full strengh. Losses in ships you can look up below. Most of them can be attributed to crap damage control on Japanese transport ships. Only one of the transport sunk by CD guns was lost outright, all of the others burned out on the way home. In terms of fast transport and minesweepers our losses are grievous. Two DDs also struck mines during the second raid against Oahu harbor two days ago, but managed to reach Kona. It should be noted that moving at full speed increases damage on crippled ships very swiftly, so unless they need to move more than 3-4 hexes it is probably better to risk moving them at cruise speed.

There are, however, three aspects of this campaign in which the Guadalcanal situation is diametrically reversed. First, Japanese have a functional airfield in the combat area and so far Allies were forced to fly attacks against it. They had success for a time, but now Japanese have finally had revenge. Things with only go downhill for Allies in the immediate future. With over 300 engineers and over 30 engineer vehicles in place, Kona will probably grow to size 5 in the next week.

Second, for the next several months, Japanese will be able to pump a lot more planes into the fire than Allies. Until August-September, Allies are outproduced in airframes to a massive degree. The entire US military gets 105 fighters/month, Japanese get 230 modern fighters/month. Planes arriving with units make the situation a bit better, but still, Allies are woefully behind my current production and this situation won't change in a big way until August (and in August I'll expand IJAAF production with Tojos). Yubari is quite cautious with his airframes, but not cautious enough, and, I believe not cautious in the right way. He could have achieved more by throwing as much as he can in as few air assaults as possible at key points, particularly in the days of landing.

Third, Allied fleet does not try to contest the waters around the battlezone directly. This might have saved Allies from a major naval defeat, but now it makes their garrizons de-facto blocaded, and also restricts their available airfields to Oahu. This might change, but as air superiority over Hawaii will, hopefully, be achieved soon, I believe that Japanese will enjoy the benefits of a fleet operating under CAP umbrella in the future.

In other words, I think it is now possible to grind down the US airpower in the region (and if my opponent - hopefully - persists, in general) and methodically isolate and take outlying islands. The invasion of Oahu is now in doubt, of course. It will all depend on the garrizon's strength.

[FatR]

Japanese Ship Losses in Operation HI



Another sub damaged by an air attack sank on April 1. Overall, the sub picket around Hawaii achieved jack (claiming only one xAKL).

Allied ship lossess in the same area I'm certain or almost certain about are 1 AV, 1 ocean-going PC, 3 DMS, 2 xAKL and 5 PT. Probably lost are 2 subs, with a couple more being damaged. A very disappointing haul.

[FatR]

DEI

Singapore was FINALLY finished giving Japanese a massive uncommitted infantry force, which, however, needs a bit of rest, at least until the morale of units is 99. Remaining Dutch troops on Java are huddling in the mountain stronghold of Malang. Artillery of the Southern Army sails to Soerabaja to help with smoking them out. I'm not in much haste to finish them off. I was slow to move from Samarinda on Balikpapan because the Imperial Guards brigade failed to land as a whole due to sub and air attacks, I once mentioned above, and because I wanted to soften the defenders, so that Balikpapan won't suffer as much damage as Samarinda did.

In good news, except for losing 20 oil wells out of 100 in Samarinda, Southern Resource Area fell into Japanese hands nearly undamaged. There were 21 damage to resources in Kuala Lumpur and minor damages here and there, but overall my trophies are in great condition. Yubari did not fight for either Batavia, Soerabaja or Magwe, so their industry and oil were seized without a scratch. He now retreats from Medan as well.

[topeverest]

Good progress and smart move for the engineers. Invalidates his HB advantage. Need to clear the big island asap IMO. I would not underestimate the difficulty of hawaii. It will suck replacements and reinforcements like a vortex. PH is likely out of reach from amphibious assault if your opponent is smart. Without knowing if your esteemed opponent has overlowed the area with ENG too, I would bet on it. That makes the campaign boil down to naval and air attrition, and who is willing to lose more. I would not be overconfident that you are outproducing the combined American airpower as spring comes on. F4F, P40E, P39D as well as leftover prior models. Thats 105 planes / month alone without the new squadrons coming in, which are considerable. IMHO, you should be aware, he has PH which is an unlimited airbase / no overstacking penanties and functionally impossible to knock out. One thing is certain, there is not going to be a winner any time soon barring a magnificent event, so if this is your guadalcanal, what are your updated goals, expectations, and loss limits (not that you have to tell us) - and how are you going to achieve them.

Banzai!

[FatR]

Unfortunately, looks like my opponent saw through my plans, and with the Pacific Fleet remaining uncommitted, even in the best case I cannot achieve my main strategic goal unless he obliges me. I'll try to lay some traps and sneak KB between Hawaii and the West Coast once it replenishes, but this is just gambling on a lucky chance. By necessity, now I must seize whatever opportunities the flow of the game presents, because it is too late to change my strategic direction.

So if Yubari seems to be willing to engage in attritional air warfare, even though his fighters are no match for mine. I intend to capitalize upon this. Allies plane pools cannot be in good condition, considering the flying collection of antiquities I saw over Oahu and conspicous absence of AVG ever since the battle for Hawaii proper began. His raid at Johnston also indicates that he is not going to abandon the direction completely. Maybe cleaning up other islands will give Japanese superior positions for the convoy war. Unfortunately, we have a HR against strategic bombing, so starving Oahu completely might be extremely hard (even if local resource production will not be enough to feed a large garrizon and air force).

I'm on the fence about plans for the future. If I do not intend to storm Oahu in the spring - and the probability of success there seems quite low considering how extremely strong resistance at Hilo is - sending entire 25th Army to Hawaii might be excessive. In this case it's probably better to continue air campaign over Hawaii while using my reserves to take parts of northern Australia, Aleutians and other secondary parts of the perimeter. Also, some parts of the Singapore force would be very welcome at Burma and Northern Sumatra, to safeguard against the possibility of British moving there in force. More recon is needed! I'm sending some NavGuards to The Big Islands, to hopefully adjust Japanese AV favorably, and rotating bombardment battleship crew (two old BBs retreat for reloading, two more from Kwajalein). I've sent Nagato and Mutsu to DEI, as they cannot reload ammo any closer than Truk and need some repairs. Yamato will be in the cover force instead of them.