Cap'n Geezer and Adm Kid Vs. The SpaceChickens

[USSAmerica]

Yep, Andre is Chickenboy, and as far as Steve and I are concerned, anything goes within this AAR.  [:D]

[Nemo121]

Ok, my assessment is that Chickenboy is in command of 12 to 6 counter-clockwise ( China, Burma, DEI ), basically the IJA. Mynok is in charge of the IJN ( Aleutians to Noumea ). From what I can see their boundary is somewhere between Port Moresby and Darwin.

Darwin is problematic. It doesn't fit the pattern. It is either an operation where one or other of them has given very significant assets of the IJA or IJN to the other to use as they see fit OR it is an operation in which the IJN and IJA are operating under different commanders. Some of the errors of co-ordination which we see, plus the uncharacteristic ( of Chickenboy ) failure to protect that little convoy unloading in north Oz leads me to think that Mynok is maintaining control of KB and most of the IJN and Chickenboy is only commanding IJA naval assets and the IJA ground force.

So, going forward, the assumption is that Mynok is running the IJN and the Pacific War and Chickenboy the IJA and the Burma/DEI/Oz war.

I seriously doubt whether you'll see any invasion of India purely because of this division of labours. I think that once they secure NOrthern Oz ( if they do ) then they'll have to patch up the situation in the Pacific and that'll be the end of any Indian ambitions.


So, that's the physical boundary and a possible explanation for some of the outlier nature of what we're seeing at Darwin.


If you want to drive them nuts then I would suggest targetting Mynok physically in-game and out of the game.

In-game:
1. Minor landing in the Aleutians preceded by some queries regarding Home Rules on Strategic Bombing and whether or not that would apply to x or y or z. You can figure out the most plausible. I suggest that you could start by asking if Strategic Bombing includes firebombing and plane/engine factories and then asking if bombing airfields and ports in the Home Islands is OK. Don't ask it all at once, allow pauses to simulate you guys conversing as you get their answers and discussing a plan involving bringing heavy bombers into action over the Home Islands. Ask about any limits on the lowest level strategic bombers can fly. Reference the Doolittle Raid and their low altitude, fight your corner for low altitude raids by twin and four-engined bombers. Give way in the end though as you don't want to sunder the game but leave them with the impression that this was somewhat important to you. This sort of thing will fully engage Chickenboy. Once he's engaged his mind will tick over and they'll begin counter-planning efforts for something which will not come to pass for many years... Any counter-planning they do for this means less time planning stuff which will actually impact you. So, that's the rules-lawyering misdirection component.


2.Small DD TFs ( 2 to 3 DDs max ) raiding through the gaps in his patrol plane coverage in the Central Pacific into the waters east of the Phillipines might do a lot of good and would certainly drive Mynok to distraction. They'd also force him to begin escorting TFs much more heavily. They are quite survivable vs anything less than KB so long as you stay outside of divebomber range of intervening islands.

I've previously posted on how to use subs to determine your enemy's patrol arcs. Use that technique to find the gaps and post some subs at his bases with low aggression COs to spot TFs when they arrive to deliver stuff. YOu can then sprint DD TFs into those bases to ambush those TFs.


3. The Wake thing is a nice idea. I might suggest, a little later, actually trying to hold onto Wake though as it makes a really great refuelling base for DDs engaged in the above operations.


Psychologically I think you need to hit the boundary too.
Everyone wants to think they are contributing to a team. Everyone wants to think they're doing their fair share. The BEST way to break apart a team is to just subtly suggest that this isn't quite so and then let THEM over-compensate so much it destroys their own equilibrium. It is always much more artful and efficient to let their false search for a new equilibrium provide the motion which dislodges them all. Let them think they aren't in equilibrium when they are and they'll do the rest of the work for you. How to do this?

Simple:
1. Play up every Chickenboy success by 20%. Downplay his failures by 20%. Downplay Mynok's successes by 20%, play up his defeats by 20% ( by downplaying the forces you had to commit or lost/ you can't play up his losses since he'll know what they are ).

In the end that will create a situation where equal play will result in Mynok feeling he is 50% inferior to Chickenboy in game terms ( the figures are purely illustrative although the 20% is intended to imply a small shift in what you report, such a shift being within the margin of error of FOW, to prevent them spotting what you are doing ).


2. Routinely comment about how both of you are able to run ops in the Pacific you couldn't run in the Indian Ocean/Oz. Don't dwell, just make the comment in passing. See the above ops.


3. Never lose an opportunity to comment slightly negatively about the IJN performance. "Well, the IJN did well against my convoy but, man, with how well the IJA is doing I'm not sure those troops would have done me any good even if they had landed."


The trick is to be subtle, say something they find believable and then let it simmer for a while. Eventually so long a the Pacific doesn't suddenly go brilliantly for them both of them will begin to have that niggling feeling that the Pacific/IJN CO ( who I'm presuming is Mynok ) might need some help from the other and even that niggle in the back of their minds is worth cultivating as it'll play into their decision-making processes.

If you really played on it then at a time of great stress this belief/doubt would be a fracture line along which they'd sunder.... Since this is only a game and I wouldn't agree to anything which might cause real psychological harm ( through inculcating a sense of learned helplesness etc etc ) I would assume that things wouldn't be taken that far though, and wouldn't advise on how that could be achieved in any case.

I think downplaying one and playing up the other is relatively minor, will be effective and won't leave relationships strained once the game is finished. As such I think it is a reasonable level of PsyOps to pitch into this game.

Any comments/questions?



Do you know who is in charge of the economy?

[USSAmerica]

I have been listening to a lot of "Radio Margaritaville" on the satellite radio in one of our cars.  It's amazing what a wide range of songs they end up playing, and I've had a few obscure Jimmy Buffett songs get stuck in my head.  Recently, the tune "Everyone Has a Cousin in Miami" has been at the top of my mental playlist.  Turns out, it's from the album "Fruitcakes", which we own on CD, so it's been playing a lot the last couple of days in the house as well.  [:D]



OK, looks like the coast is clear.  [;)]

As far as I can tell, CB is running the economy.  This is really only based on his response to a "disagreement" over the defensive armament of B-17's.  We refused to swear off using "4EB Sweeps" to kill their fighters on CAP.  Mind you, we've never done this and effectively end up killing fighters when we do port or AF attacks, but CB called it gamey to use them on "sweeps" and equated it to the gamey manipulation of the aircraft R&D system to get planes into service 6-8 months early, or more.  Since we would not promise to no use "4EB Sweeps" he declared that all bets are off and he will game the production system as much as he can. 

Lots of good ideas in your post above, Nemo.  One question for you.  You start out with your assessment of the operating areas for CB and Mynok, and then base lots of ideas on that assessment.  What are you basing your assessment of their division of responsibility on?  Anything more than Steve and my guesses?  [:D]

[Nemo121]

If you want to know someone then don't ask them questions, let them ask you questions. People may conceal when they speak in response to your questions but very few have the presence of mind to dissemble when asking questions. They ask what they're interested in, they want clear answers so they ask clearly and the way they ask shows their thoughts. Chickenboy has asked me lots of questions/comments inviting response in the past so I have a good idea what he's like.

My assessment was based on what I thought CB would be responsible for and my assessment of his level of competence. What's left is Mynok's . It won't be perfect but I think it is solid.

[USSAmerica]

April 20 & 21, 1942:   The Chickens brought some more troops to the party at Darwin, via FT TF.  I think the troops are some combat engineer types.  The TF had 2 CL’s and 12 DD’s.  The troops got ashore, but the Japs paid for it with a smashed up CL that may or may not sink, and 4 more confirmed DD’s sunk.

Some fighters I had moved up to Darwin flew CAP even though I didn’t intend for them to.  A few 36+ plane Oscar sweeps from Timor dealt them a handful of CAP planes shot down for a couple of Oscars.

The Aussies reclaimed Fenton rather easily with the addition of the 1/3 strength 8th Division.  They scored a 4-1 attack and drove the Yokosuka 1st and 3rd SNLF’s into the desert countryside.  Those guys show a movement tick toward the rail hex east of them, and south of Fenton now.  I’m leaving the 2/8th Arm Rgt behind to garrison Fenton and shifting the 8th Div down to greet the SNLF’s when they arrive.  What ever the Jap LCU is that has straddled the rail line 1 hex south of Katherine (after marching with the 4th Tank Rgt from Wyndham) it will be met next turn by the first two Aussie Arm Rgts to arrive as reinforcements in the area.  They are both pretty weak, with only their starting TOE, but I’ll get a better idea of what they are facing and then decide to attack or wait for help. This enemy LCU is the primary target of most of my tactical bombers in the area next turn.

The Space Chickens made a good move in the Darwin area this turn, landing a small number of troops at Bathurst Island, just off the coast from Darwin.  If they are left alone, they can bring in some engineers and eventually build the place up into another decent sized AF.  I don’t intend to leave them alone if I can help it.  [;)]

The first two days of 4E bombing raids on Wyndham managed to bag a couple of handfuls of Jap fighters on the ground and cratered up the runway a bit.  I think the Chickens have a good number of engineers there to repair damage, but after the turn the AF is still 18% damaged.  I will keep this up for a while.  There are 51 fighters indicated at Wyndham and there was no CAP resistance to my attack, although I did lose 4 B-17’s to ops losses.


No other real action of note elsewhere. 

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

If you want to know someone then don't ask them questions, let them ask you questions. People may conceal when they speak in response to your questions but very few have the presence of mind to dissemble when asking questions. They ask what they're interested in, they want clear answers so they ask clearly and the way they ask shows their thoughts. Chickenboy has asked me lots of questions/comments inviting response in the past so I have a good idea what he's like.

My assessment was based on what I thought CB would be responsible for and my assessment of his level of competence. What's left is Mynok's . It won't be perfect but I think it is solid.

Many,many thanks.[&o][&o][&o] You have definately given me a great deal to think about (and Plot with![:D]). I'll be posting the results here (after they've happened...I really do have a hang up about discussing ops before they occur here).

[AW1Steve]

In addition to Mikes report, I had a BB bombardment group planning on visiting Wake. An I boat spotted them so I've turned away to go blow up somewhere else. Haven't figured out where yet, but it will take at least a turn to get there so I'll just meander elsewhere. [:D]

[USSAmerica]

April 22 & 23, 1942:

There was not a lot of excitement this turn.  My 4E's continue to bomb Wyndham's AF, destroying a couple of planes, putting a few dents into the runways, and blowing up a bit of supply.  All but the B-17D's are flying at extended range, so at 1/2 payload.  Even if they don't succeed in shutting down the AF completely, the main purpose is being accomplished as they are forcing every Jap fighter based in Oz (only at Wyndham) to stay home and fly CAP, so there is no cap over the various ground troops wandering in the Aussie Outback. 

It does appear that the 2 reinforcing Jap divisions that landed at Wyndham will win the race with my reinforcing Aussie divisions to Katherine.  I am sure they assume the threat of being cut off will force us to withdraw our troops from Darwin to keep them from being surrounded and cut off.  I doubt if I can beat them to Katherine, but they have no idea of the sheer masses of troops that are making their way to Katherine. 

Albacores from Darwin did spot and sink an escorting SC that was on the run into Wyndham.  I moved the DB's from Katherine up to Darwin for the 24/25th turn and also figured out that my Catalinas flying out of Darwin had screwed up orders and have not been flying.  We'll post more once we get the turn back, but I'll tease that the Combat Replay involved new ventilation in several IJN CA's next turn.  [;)]

[USSAmerica]

April 24 & 25, 1942

OK, so correctly setting the Naval Search percentage on my small Aussie Catalina squadron at Darwin was like turning on the lights in a dark room to watch the roaches scatter. [:D] There were probably 8-10 different Jap TF’s spotted. Some BB’s in a TF off Timor would likely have made a nice target, but they were out of SBD and Albacore range from Darwin. I did find a few cruisers closer to Darwin. I can only guess they were a covering force for some supplies or reinforcements to land on Bathurst Island. What I do know is that the DB’s dented one of them and the Albacores supplied several new sea water vents. 1 CL and 3 CA’s were hit with torpedoes. CA’s Atago and Ashigara are on the sunk list, while the third CA and the CL each only took one hit, so they will likely survive. CL Kuma was also resurrected as it had apparently been falsely reported as sunk around 30 days ago. One other boost I hope to get from properly flying Naval Search in the Darwin area is better detection of targets for my subs to react to. We’ll see over the next several turns. I’m very likely going to boost the Naval Search with another small Cat squadron to spot as much as I can right now, while I have the ability to damage ships in place. This window may close at any time, for instance if the KB decides to visit and retake air superiority for a while. [:)]

Elsewhere, there is still some actual fighting going on. I continue to pull back the rearguard troops and the Japs have taken Mandalay and moved 1 hex North along the rail line in pursuit. Steve’s last position of notable resistance in the PI was eliminated as the LYB’s pushed his troops out of Cagayan. They were nothing more than hold outs, and now the survivors are nothing more than stragglers needing to be cleaned up by the Japs.

The Japs launched 2 days of Deliberate attacks at Sian in China. They took big losses both days, around 7k casualties the first day and around 5k the second day, but their engineers dropped the forts a level each day, and they are now down to 1. My guys are instantly pegged in the red for their supply situation and the Japs managed a 2 -1 odds attack the second day. It really should only take 1 more Deliberate attack to capture the base, if the Japs don’t wait. If they do wait, my situation may improve a little, but I don’t think a break will allow me to get much stronger there. Supply is just so hard to get into Sian from Chungking.

[USSAmerica]

April 26 & 27, 1942

CL Nagara was the unnamed CL target of an Albacore torpedo last turn. It was only 1 hit, but she showed up on the sunk ships list today. Also making an appearance on the sunk list today were SS I-4, and xAK, and an AMC that was sunk near Wake I. a while ago. For the most part this was the highlight of the turn. Bad weather scrubbed most of the air missions for the turn.

The LYB’s held off attacking at Sian this turn, and the two day’s respite allowed some supply to reach my defenders and allowed the forts to be built back up to 2.53%. With no attacks next turn, the forts will be back at lvl 3. They should have attacked again today, regardless of the casualties they took in the last turn’s two deliberate attacks. They would have captured the city. Tomorrow, my forts will be back where they started before last turn, and my supply situation will be ok again. The Chickens can still decide to pound me for a couple of turns here and route me if they like, but the respite will make it hurt very much the next time they try, instead of clearing me out this turn. I think whoever is ordering the IJA in China looked at the casualty numbers and didn’t see or realize the significance of the fort levels dropping and the 2-1 result they reached on the second attack. Maybe a bit gun shy, but I’ll take whatever breaks I can get in China. [:D] I did finally get the 1/3 of a division pushed out of the port city of Wenchow. They held out a very long time. Now, I’ll see if I can manage to march them across Indian Country to rejoin their mates near Changsha.

The biggest development of the turn was the result of the few air attacks that flew in the heavy weather. Some War/Kittyhawks and Hurricanes ground attacked the advancing Imperial Guards Division as they make their way toward Katherine. The planes also attacked the 38th Division, which I already knew about, but in addition they attacked the 20th Division! That’s 3, not 2, divisions advancing to cut my line at Katherine. They really wanted to make sure they brought enough this time to get the 2 Divisions (4th and 21st) and friends at Darwin out of trouble. In the long run, all the presence of the 20th Division means is another Jap Division stuck in the quagmire of North Australia.

[USSAmerica]

April 28 & 29, 1942  

No attack at Sian again this turn.  Forts are back up to 3 and about 900 AV from 4 corps arrived to boost the defenders from the defensive lines 1 hex to the SE.  For now, Sian is out of the woods.  For the medium and long term, it’s back to a supply watch.  I should be able to switch my transports at Ledo over to carrying supplies into Tsuyung in another 3 turns or so, after they finish flying out the last NCAC LCU.   

Steve has delivered a couple of P-39 squadrons to Oz with very nicely trained pilots.  The catch is they are quite skilled in Air, not ground attack.  Instead of setting them to train their GrnB skill, I’ve dumped almost every pilot back into the USAAF fighter pool and pulled in all veteran pilots with 55+ GrnB skill.  They will take several turns to all arrive, but they will be ready for action much sooner than training them.  I have enough fighters, for now, in N Oz, but need the ground attack boost, especially single engine planes that can carry normal bomb loads from the lvl 2 and 3 AF’s.  I can’t wait to get Tennant Creek and Daly Waters expanded to lvl 4.  

There was a little excitement around N Oz today.  First, I spotted a convoy heading for Wyndham.  A Dutch sub put 3 fish into an xAK loaded with troops and put her under, and an S Boat scored 1 hit on a loaded xAP.  After the sun came up, it was the SBD’s turn.  I had SBD’s, Albacores, and P-38’s set to Naval Attack/Escort at Darwin.  They all got separated.  The Albacores got lost and returned to base each time, and the P-38’s ended up sweeping over the enemy TF, but there was no CAP.  Good thing, too.  My 16 SBD’s went in by themselves.  The first bombing run scored 2 hits each on 2 xAP’s, other than the one reported on fire from the sub torp.  The second bombing run of 14 SBD’s scored 5, 2, and 2 hits on 2 xAK’s and an xAP.  My rough estimate is that I hit about half of the transports in the TF.  There are still several that will make it to Wyndham tomorrow.  The sunk ships list only had the victim of the 3 Dutch torpedoes on it.  I’m sure more will show up over the next several days.  SigInt reported that the LYB 11th Rgt is loaded on these transports, so the Chickens are still bringing in more troops.  I hope I can get some coordinated attacks on the rest of this TF tomorrow, including the Albacores.  The massacre would have been complete with several torp hits added in.   

It’s funny how different the perspective can be from each side in the war.  We look at the LYB’s at Darwin, noting that they are stuck there and can’t march out of the hex, and see them as under siege.  The Chickens see the same situation as their troops besieging  our troops in Darwin, I guess.  I can’t imagine any other reason why they would try a deliberate attack today.  [:D]  

Ground combat at Darwin (76,124)
 Japanese Deliberate attack  

Attacking force 30892 troops, 506 guns, 98 vehicles, Assault Value = 872
Defending force 46970 troops, 627 guns, 873 vehicles, Assault Value = 791  

Japanese adjusted assault: 276

Allied adjusted defense: 1419  

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 5)  

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:  

Japanese ground losses:
      3037 casualties reported
         Squads: 16 destroyed, 218 disabled
         Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 200 disabled
         Engineers: 2 destroyed, 56 disabled
      Guns lost 33 (2 destroyed, 31 disabled)  

Allied ground losses:
      456 casualties reported
         Squads: 32 destroyed, 12 disabled
         Non Combat: 25 destroyed, 104 disabled
         Engineers: 6 destroyed, 9 disabled
      Vehicles lost 38 (1 destroyed, 37 disabled)  

They have got to be short on supply to have their AV adjusted down so far.  They also must have believed that our supplies at Darwin are exhausted.  Not quite, as I still have over 35k supplies there.  I’ve been regularly bombarding the Jap troops at Darwin with my ground forces, but I’m going to quit that to conserve supplies.  Darwin is about to become a waiting game, since the 3 reinforcing LYB divisions will win the race to Katherine.  I expect at least two of them to move immediately to reinforce their troops at Darwin, leaving maybe 1 Division and some support to defend Katherine.  My reinforcing divisions should be able to retake Katherine when they arrive and then I intend to push up to join the battle at Darwin as well with them.  I have several ARM Rgt’s in the mix of reinforcements that will cut across country to form a line from Katherine to the coast NW of there, cutting off any supply flow from Wyndham to the LYB troops at Darwin.  Time is the key.  As long as my defenders at Darwin can hold out and keep control of the base, the LYB’s will be caught up in a big pocket where we can eventually grind them down with superior numbers and logistics.  If, however, the Chickens are able to capture the base at Darwin, then they can evacuate troops by sea from there, like lancing an abscess.  LOL  I think their hope is that they can do just that, taking lots of POW’s at Darwin in the process and then pulling the bulk of their troops out.  I am sure they are not expecting 4+ divisions (including 2 very strong one’s) in our relief force.  Hopefully, we can overrun Katherine quickly enough and get to Darwin to boost the defense before the Chickens can take it.  We’re rolling the dice and are going to have all of the defenders currently at Katherine and North of there fall back on Darwin to make it as hard as we can to capture. 

[AW1Steve]

Any interest in seeing this AAR come back? If so then let me and my partner know.

[USSAmerica]

I have lots of interest, much more interest than time.  [:D]  I will, however, try to make some time to bring things up to date.  I enjoy it.  [:)]