ORIGINAL: MengJiao
Realistically the encirclers would be more confused than the encircled. The encircled just have to get out, the encirclers have to go deep into enemy territory, strung with transport along winding routes at top speed, get to some unknown location in some time frame, find all the other encirclers, stay suppplied and in contact with their own forces and be prepared to react to threats from any direction. The encircled just have to stay out of contact and get away through familiar territory.
I don't follow the logic here, the encirclers have the initiative, they know the event is about to take place, they may have been planning and briefing for days, they have a plan, they know where they are required to go, through recon they may already know where the opposition is. The defenders have few of these advantages, they have to react to events, at short notice, driven by a plan that they don't know the details off (with exception of events such as Kursk).
Except that with IGOUGO, the defender seems to get to see the opposition plan fully unfold, then gets a chance to react to it, therefore I still think that there needs to be some penalty to reflect the realistic situation of defenders reacting to events as they happen and not after they have happened. In reality some units would flee through any gaps, but some would blunder into encircling units and be forced to try to fight their way out.
It is early days and I would not want to prejudge the issue, but the event under discussion does seem odd. [:)]


