1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Gary Grigsby’s War in the East: The German-Soviet War 1941-1945 is a turn-based World War II strategy game stretching across the entire Eastern Front. Gamers can engage in an epic campaign, including division-sized battles with realistic and historical terrain, weather, orders of battle, logistics and combat results.

The critically and fan-acclaimed Eastern Front mega-game Gary Grigsby’s War in the East just got bigger and better with Gary Grigsby’s War in the East: Don to the Danube! This expansion to the award-winning War in the East comes with a wide array of later war scenarios ranging from short but intense 6 turn bouts like the Battle for Kharkov (1942) to immense 37-turn engagements taking place across multiple nations like Drama on the Danube (Summer 1944 – Spring 1945).

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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by Redmarkus5 »

ORIGINAL: kirkgregerson

redmarkus4, in your knowledge and research, how many total loses KIA + wounded + MIA would you say the Soviet forces suffered from June 22 - Dec 31 1941? If you have any source that is great, if not, give me your thoughts.

thanks

Well, I am not sure if you are serious or teasing me, but anything between 5m and 7m total (KIA+MIA+WIA+PoW) feels about right to me. Many of the WIA would return to action, so irreplaceable losses, which is normally what writers focus on, might be 6m?

Any comments anyone? I'm not a genuine expert, just opinionated.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by ComradeP »

Certainly, supplies are too forgiving for both sides in terms of the quantities reaching the frontline. In 1941 for the Germans and later in the war for the Soviets.

There are many mechanics that could use some further finetuning, but the developers are aware of that and numerous things are being tested currently. Of course, major changes require a lot of data and a lot of testing.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by kirkgregerson »

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

ORIGINAL: kirkgregerson

redmarkus4, in your knowledge and research, how many total loses KIA + wounded + MIA would you say the Soviet forces suffered from June 22 - Dec 31 1941? If you have any source that is great, if not, give me your thoughts.

thanks

Well, I am not sure if you are serious or teasing me, but anything between 5m and 7m total (KIA+MIA+WIA+PoW) feels about right to me. Many of the WIA would return to action, so irreplaceable losses, which is normally what writers focus on, might be 6m?

Any comments anyone? I'm not a genuine expert, just opinionated.

Was not teasing and I know people might find some of my posts a bit too aggressive. But I agree with your values. In reality we'll never know the exactly figures. But I will never disagree with somebody using 5-7 million as a good range.

Sorry again if you thought I was trying to tease.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by Redmarkus5 »

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Certainly, supplies are too forgiving for both sides in terms of the quantities reaching the frontline. In 1941 for the Germans and later in the war for the Soviets.

There are many mechanics that could use some further finetuning, but the developers are aware of that and numerous things are being tested currently. Of course, major changes require a lot of data and a lot of testing.

Thanks that's good to know. A bit more of a challenge on the logistics side will have a huge impact on the planning required for operations and the choices players need to make.

May I make a few suggestions?

1. Increase the importance of cities to make them essential objectives for both sides. They should give a boost to nearby units when captured to reflect seizure of civilian stockpiles, booty and plunder, all common features of this war.

2. Do something to reduce the absolute impact of partisan cutting of rail lines, but at the same time make it more important for the Axis to use both security and regular troops behind the lines. Regular units were often pulled into anti-partisan operations, I believe.

For WiTE 2, we need a road net, the ability to construct new roads and rail using engineers or AP (the log roads were critical on the Volkhov front and in the Pripyat) and a proper modelling of the rollbahn to carry a percentage of supply forward by truck in addition to rail. I should be making decisions about vehicle allocations (supply vs movement) and suffering vehicle attrition that varies based on those choices. These are all key strategic/operational judgements that a WW2 AG or Front commander would have to make and they will slow the attack rate down and give us a more realistic tempo of operations - build up-assault-exploit-consolidate.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by Redmarkus5 »

No, your post wasn't aggressive at all. Some other people are pretty aggressive and I wasn't sure where you were coming from :)
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by randallw »

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Units that do rout usually recover and reappear in the line again next turn. You'll notice that there's usually a large pile of Soviet routed units near my breakthrough areas. At the start of my next turn, very few are still routed.

How do you think the routing/recovery rules should be changed?
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: MechFO

@mods

Can we maybe make a consolidated historical discussion theread/subforum? While some of the discussions are interesting, they also tend to rapidly clutter up what should be gameplay threads.
+1
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Bob thinks the Sovs need it during the transitional 42-3 period, Notenome. I'm agnostic on this point.

I will say this. Am presently testing a Stalingrad scenario and it would be pretty difficult to do it without this extra little bump as the Sovs. Some of the testers are having problems recreating the pocket. I managed to do it, but it took some work. This mid war Red Army isn't amazing, lacking as it does the sheer mass of artillery that comes along later. The mobile troops are largely green. Rifle corps are fairly rare. So Bob's point isn't without some basis. On the other hand, a player doing a GC can probably contrive to optimize the Red Army and get a better showing from it even during this stage. Then again, you still aren't going to get those big guns until December 1942 (and effectively until virtually 1943, since it takes several turns for freshly raised arty divisions to become combat capable.)

On the whole I tend to agree with Pieter on this issue, but it's not quite the slam dunk he believes when taking the larger view.

In my game vs ara i had 60 rifle corps by june 42. I had 15 tank corps too so maybe soviets might have too many AP?

I'm not an expert on the # of corps russia managed to pull together by june 42 so i'm not trying to start a war just curious if it was devs intentions to let russia have this ability to build big corp stacks so early?

That being said i have a few armys not right in C&C so i could just be robbing peter (not setting my c&c properly) to pay paul (going crazy with corp creation)

maybe there should be a cap similar to guards limit if that's not the intention?
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: Jakerson
ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Bob thinks the Sovs need it during the transitional 42-3 period, Notenome. I'm agnostic on this point.

I will say this. Am presently testing a Stalingrad scenario and it would be pretty difficult to do it without this extra little bump as the Sovs. Some of the testers are having problems recreating the pocket. I managed to do it, but it took some work. This mid war Red Army isn't amazing, lacking as it does the sheer mass of artillery that comes along later. The mobile troops are largely green. Rifle corps are fairly rare. So Bob's point isn't without some basis. On the other hand, a player doing a GC can probably contrive to optimize the Red Army and get a better showing from it even during this stage. Then again, you still aren't going to get those big guns until December 1942 (and effectively until virtually 1943, since it takes several turns for freshly raised arty divisions to become combat capable.)

On the whole I tend to agree with Pieter on this issue, but it's not quite the slam dunk he believes when taking the larger view.

Even with this bonus you cannot go on the offensive as much as soviet did historically during that time period I already complained in some other thread ridiculousness how much troops soviet need to mount an assault against German stacks of three panzer divs in the same hex that have CV power of 30-37. Taking away this bonus will only make it worse.

I have assaulted against three German panzer divs with six fully equipped tank corps and nine rifle divisions at same time (that is five full stacks of Soviet troops) without being able to get any other result than hold and I prepared assault by bombarding that same German panzer stack ten times with whole soviet air force witch most of it I had deployed same sector couple turn before and that is thousands of planes.

Those German panzers divs stack had zero forts lvl and no help from reserves other than couple artillery attachments.

Hold hold hold is only result I get and Me loosing 10k-15k troops eatch attack and German 1k troops. Now I see people lobby for chance that makes this even worse. [X(]

This test was run on summer 42 and done with the Soviet bonus. If german stack up their mobile troops in stack of 3 with or without bonus Soviet have nothing or no way to make any type of offensive against those stacks even if Soviet attack from 5 sides same time with full stacks it end up soviet taking 15k German 1k casulties.

Head on Soviet counter attack against German spearhead on 3 panzer divs on same hex simply no possible in 42 no matter how much troops Soviet have around them attacking.



That is weird. With my game i am having a super easy-ish time of beating back panzer corps with rifle corp & cav corp stacks. Seems almost two easy at times. I wonder if it's just how i played the russians thats different? I cared less about making sure my C&C was right in early 42 and more about getting tank and rifle corps so i horded AP's.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by Smirfy »

I have to say Jamaim I appreciate your use of Roumanians to enable concentration of German units
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: Paul McNeely

ComradeP, the complaint against the +1 is invalid.

The combat result that you call cheesy in the AAR where 90,000 russians pushed out your panzer and motorized divisions was due to the doubling of final CV.  The +1 bonus was then the cherry on top but without the doubling the attack would have failed.  Your opponent got lucky there.  Without the doubling that attack had no chance to succeed.

The string of combats the forced out the 7th Panzer division was a combination of your fault and divine intervention.  Your fault because they had no ammunition after the first attack.  The remaining attacks are consistent only with the HQ sent support units firing (possibly some minor fire from your panzer division but I am dubious of even that).  Then his CV was tripled-divine intervention-...can someone official comment on how that is possible?  If there had been no odd ball modification of the final CV odds due to leadership rolls the attack may have failed since you would have had to loose a lot of squads and tanks for your CV to go from 120 to below 73 to leave the odds at slightly above 1:1 so the +1 would have kicked in.  I'd open a few cathedrals and light some candles over those results myself if I was the soviet player.

But neither result was due to the +1 both were due to the odd ball CV modification that at least so far as I can figure out is a leader check of some sort.  You may have even got the leader modification since it looks like your CV was 16x in that last battle...consistent with his 3xx or so...and the final odds being 3.3 (2.3:1 pre odds adjustment).  Remove those leader modifications and the final battle would have had CVs of (you)80, (him) 73 and an adjusted final odds of 1:1.1 HOLDES.  If you had had ammunition to shoot for the full turn the first and last attacks would have looked similar.

I'm curious is a lot of people complaining about combat units sucking could be attributed to no AMMO. It would be nice to see something in the combat report say LOW AMMO :)
Then people can say oh shit my bad.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by Emx77 »

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

At the times when I am making a one hex breakthrough, there's a simple reason for it: German mobile unit hasty attacks suck, period. A Rifle division in a hex with 2=8 is in many cases going to stay in that hex, even if you bring a Panzer corps.

Why? Because Soviet units that are hasty attacked by mobile units rarely rout, usually retreat and usually don't suffer significant losses.

I think that you are making mistake by attacking first line defence with hasty attacks. You need to make breach using delibrate attacks with infantry divisions first. Then exploit the at least 3 hexes wide gap with mobile units and make hastly and/or delibrate attacks with Pz divisions on second line units. Also, if you find that Soviets have a solid defense line with 2=8 units try to manevour in order to find weak spot. It is very important to to keep your opponent off balance and not let him to dug in and form =8 defense. With constant move around you will force him to leave fortified positions to avoid encirclement. All in all, I do pretty similiar operations as JAMiAM described with a lot of success. I don't even want to think what would happened to Soviets if I played without swamp *2 defence rule.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

Something just doesn't feel right about the balance of forces in Jan '42. I have too many divisions and too many options for manoeuvre, IMO. I don't really mind (it's fun) but unless the Axis turns around and kicks me back to the Volga or Moscow come summer, I will be sorely disappointed.

+1
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

What seems fishy is that Von Manstein, one of the best German leaders and better than all Soviet leaders aside from Zhukov, managed to add, at best, 20 CV to the Panzer division. And then some mediocre Soviet leader, or possibly Rokossovsky, effectively quadrupled the Soviet CV? It just doesn't add up.


Rokossovsky was an amazing general and should have remained zhukovs superior if not for his unwarranted stint in a gulag where he had some teeth pulled out. Just cause. He actually cared for his troops more so then zhukov too which was impressive in a soviet leader of the time.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by Emx77 »

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

This game was my first CG, and so I have made a few mistakes along the way, as well. I didn't understand just how important morale is in the game for the first few turns, and didn't maximize morale gain for my units, not morale hits for my opponent. This can have a cascading effect, as the game progresses, and has made me weaker than I could be, and him stronger.

JAMiAM may I ask you to elaborate this thing about units morale in more detail? Or at least to give us link to a thread where this is discussed. Thank you in advance.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by bwheatley »

ORIGINAL: notenome

One could test this in the editor, no? Put one Axis division in clear next to one soviet division and assign Manstein to one side and Rokossovky to the other. Then make a hotseat 'game' and have each side attack 10 times, see how CVs faired.

+1 whos gonna do it?
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by JAMiAM »

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Your posts shows that you really need to play against a competent Soviet opponent to see that the situation you describe is highly utopian.
That will be your job in our game...[;)]

In the meantime, and in my opponents collective defense, I will say that none of them are incompetent. They possess varying levels of competence, and have utilized a variety of defensive techniques, none of which have been able to stop very similar breakthroughs throughout the summer and early fall of 1941. Therefore, I contend that your evaluation of "highly utopian" is in error.

When we resume our game, I am willing to be proven wrong, if you can manage it..[:)]
ORIGINAL: ComradeP

At the times when I am making a one hex breakthrough, there's a simple reason for it: German mobile unit hasty attacks suck, period. A Rifle division in a hex with 2=8 is in many cases going to stay in that hex, even if you bring a Panzer corps.
Occasionally, a 2=8 will stay in place. However, properly outfitted Pz Korps stacks, with directly assigned SUs and GS-on, will pop them 9 out of ten times. Once retreated, then you are dealing with a 1=1, or 1=2, which will soon rout.

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

I'd really like to cause more casualties to, but I can't.

Why? Because Soviet units that are hasty attacked by mobile units rarely rout, usually retreat and usually don't suffer significant losses.

I beg to differ. Even if they don't rout the first time, they will after repeated retreats. In my opinion, this is where you're not taking advantage of your mobility and following up with the successive attacks.
ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Units that do rout usually recover and reappear in the line again next turn. You'll notice that there's usually a large pile of Soviet routed units near my breakthrough areas. At the start of my next turn, very few are still routed.

If your penetrations are deep enough, then you should be displacing the routed units further from your critical hexes. In any event, when they recover, they are usually at an unready status, and unable to both move and attack.
ORIGINAL: ComradeP

I'm facing a checkerboard or wall of units, and my mobile units (despite what their CV's might indicate) don't have the power to remove many of them from their hexes.
I've been facing the same thing, with a competent set of opponents, yet my results are much different. Why? We are playing the same game, so the obvious answer seems to be that we are doing things differently.
ORIGINAL: ComradeP

When the infantry attacks, the Soviets might suffer around 2500-3000 losses and the units might rout, but there are always more.
Indeed, which is why you absolutely need to leverage your superior mobility and firepower to multiply this effect as much as you can. There are always more...to attack.
ORIGINAL: ComradeP

A crossing like the one you made, at just one point, can fairly easily be contained. The speed with which you've advanced with limited mobile units just shows that your opponent has a thing or two to learn about defence in depth and maintaing reserves. Crossings in one area are generally a bad idea.
The crossing of the Dnepr cannot be contained with the forces that are available to him in the immediate area. I have reserves that will be *pouring* through the gap. Not dribbling through a one-hex opening. I have interior lines within the exploitation region and he has too much frontage to try to contain it. If he does not displace his lines, he will be pocketed on the following turn.

If the breakthrough was not supported by the northern attacks, then he might be able to *attempt* to contain it, but again, since he has the exterior lines to manage, it would leave me with the initiative to once again cut through and exploit on the next turn with my reserves. Giving him two such bulges to try to contain, will stretch his reserves too thinly, allowing multiple successive encirclements. Counterattacking my bulges will not lead to any result other than keeping his forces close to mine and pocketed, rather than escaping. I've left my opponent a one turn window of opportunity, to either abandon the Kiev pocket en masse, or face a certain encirclement closing on the following turn.
ORIGINAL: ComradeP

As for the second picture: punching two Panzer Groups through what seems to be a poorly held part of the front, without substantial Soviet reserves in the area is child's play as long as there are no protected natural defences in the way. Anyone can do that. A maximum of 10 pocketed divisions also isn't too great for an operation like that.
The objective here was not to pocket 10 divisions. The objective was to force a mass displacement of the enemy, peeling him off a set of natural defensive lines, with minimum casualties to myself. I did this through leveraging concentration of force, and mobility - two of the primary advantages that the Axis have at this stage of the game. I did this against a variety of defensive positions, against a competent player who was dug in, and defending in depth. Though it might not be child's play, it is certainly possible to repeatedly perform these types of operations as the Axis player in 1941. Even against competent Soviet play.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by raizer »

the i do this, you need to do that thread

flav says notenome is the first soviet player he has seen on the forums that "gets it" as a soviet pusher...I believe him, and therefore, note is a better player than your competent opponents, its like comparing apples and cashews.
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by abulbulian »

ORIGINAL: raizer

the i do this, you need to do that thread

flav says notenome is the first soviet player he has seen on the forums that "gets it" as a soviet pusher...I believe him, and therefore, note is a better player than your competent opponents, its like comparing apples and cashews.


Wrong and very wrong. I can tell you first hand bwheatley gets it too. Play him if you don't believe me. [:'(]
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RE: 1:1 odds, counterattack casualties etc

Post by kirkgregerson »

ORIGINAL: raizer

the i do this, you need to do that thread

flav says notenome is the first soviet player he has seen on the forums that "gets it" as a soviet pusher...I believe him, and therefore, note is a better player than your competent opponents, its like comparing apples and cashews.


lol, raizer you need to get out more I guess. My sov opponent was able avoid large pocket and leave counter attack pz units with easy in 41 when he decided. He's starting spr 42 with almost 8 million men. When I asked him his secret, he said it was easy .. just have to keep moving troops out of axis inf range, leave some toekn units in good defense terrain to slow axis down, and keep back cav and tank units to counter if axis push armor to far. Not liking that he was not stressed in 41 and won't be again in 42. I agree with comments about it just not feeling right going into 42.

Also, I don't like the insinuation that ComradeP is some novice axis player and doesn't know what he is doing. I think what you need to take away from this is that even a first time sov player like notename is able stay on top of a WitE experience player. I don't think your evaluation of notename being a genius sov player is the right conclusion. Not saying he isn't a smart player... just not what the trend seems to be for what sov players can accomplish in 41-45 scen.
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