If he's sent the entire KB after Lex (which I doubt, probably still heading back to the barn for re-supply), it would be a huge waste of resources. He'd be running up SYS damage for almost no reason & the chances of actually catching her are pretty slim.
Though, if he is running pell-mell into the Northern Pacific with his greatest strategic asset, it says a lot about his mind-set.
Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)
Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
ORIGINAL: paullus99
If he's sent the entire KB after Lex (which I doubt, probably still heading back to the barn for re-supply), it would be a huge waste of resources. He'd be running up SYS damage for almost no reason & the chances of actually catching her are pretty slim.
Though, if he is running pell-mell into the Northern Pacific with his greatest strategic asset, it says a lot about his mind-set.
I have to agree Paullus , CR should get some WC AOs moving up to NorPac if he hasn't already done so incase he has to make some full speed runs and top off the bunkers on those small legged DDs. If Chez decides to chase Lex that slows down pace of operations in the south seas for the time being.
I guess theres a chance he could split up the KB for a couple three weeks, anybody?
"There’s no such thing as a bitter person who keeps the bitterness to himself.” ~ Erwin Lutzer
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
No worries CR, just stating that I won't flog a dead horse.
I suppose my view of this comes from a very interesting book on knife and swordfighting in Europe in the Middle Ages ( 15th Century to 18th Century or so ) which I read which translated actual manuals from the time. One of the key things they taught was not to take advantage of obvious errors an opponent made early on as:
a) a poor opponent could be relied upon to make similar mistakes time and again and you could take advantage of them on the 3rd or 4th occasion to deliver a killing blow.
b) an excellent opponent would probably just be showing you weakness in order to gauge your thinking and aggressiveness in order to learn what he needed to show you to get a specific reaction from you in the future which, since he was expecting it, would leave you open to a killing blow.
Were I ChezDaJez I would:
a) not have left the AOs uncovered like that - you've learnt something about how sloppy he is. That's good intel for you.
b) have only shown them to you if they were part of a trap - again, you've learnt from him that he doesn't have a two-step mind, rather he has a one-step mind and is much more likely to simply beef up his escorts to fight off such raids in future rather than use such honeypots to dish out disproportionate levels of damage. You'll have to test it more but if you notice he is beefing up escorts in order to fight off your raids then you have learnt something of major value to you in terms of being able to cause him to commit his forces unwisely ( something I managed to get 1EyedJacks to do a lot of in my game vs him with respect to his convoys ).
c) If I had left them uncovered and had not anticipated your move I would now know that you were likely to attack targets of opportunity. That would lead me to think that if I could "manufacture" such targets of opportunity I could lead you to engage them on YOUR terms using YOUR initiative to waltz into my trap. Again though ChezDaJez seems to be a one-step thinker so that will work against him forming such a logic chain.
Overall you may get away with it. It just sticks in my craw to give such important information about one's thinking style and relative judgement of risks/benefits away for just a few AOs. That is cheaply-won knowledge for Japan. Fortunately it looks like ChezDaJez won't take advantage of it but others would.
As to the quest for autovictory... No, I think that's already lost. If you look at the first day strikes, lack of second day strikes combined with the uncovering of the AOs ( I assumed the lack of second day strikes was to cover for the detaching of 2 or more CVs for a sprint to cover "bait AOs" --- but obviously couldn't say so here until the turn played out.... I have used precisely such a gambit and sunk Allied CVs in return for a single "bait AO and DD" before returning to pound PH with 4 CVs on Day 3 and 6 on Day 4... so I was against it because it closely matched the setup of a trap I've laid to great success before.... but it wouldn't have been fair to outline the reasons WHY I was against it so much until it played out ) and the lack of trap in that plan I think it is fair to say Canoerebal has the measure of ChezDaJez. The mismatch is far less than with QBall who simply never formulated a coherent strategic layer plan but Japan can't go on a strength vs strength match even in Scenario 2. Chez will make advances but he doesn't appear sneaky and that will limit his ability to make up for materiel mismatches. Of course maybe he is ueber-sneaky and this is just an uncharacteristic error but it does appear that neither player here is camouflaging their true intentions at the beginning of the game and is playing as they intend to continue playing.
I suppose my view of this comes from a very interesting book on knife and swordfighting in Europe in the Middle Ages ( 15th Century to 18th Century or so ) which I read which translated actual manuals from the time. One of the key things they taught was not to take advantage of obvious errors an opponent made early on as:
a) a poor opponent could be relied upon to make similar mistakes time and again and you could take advantage of them on the 3rd or 4th occasion to deliver a killing blow.
b) an excellent opponent would probably just be showing you weakness in order to gauge your thinking and aggressiveness in order to learn what he needed to show you to get a specific reaction from you in the future which, since he was expecting it, would leave you open to a killing blow.
Were I ChezDaJez I would:
a) not have left the AOs uncovered like that - you've learnt something about how sloppy he is. That's good intel for you.
b) have only shown them to you if they were part of a trap - again, you've learnt from him that he doesn't have a two-step mind, rather he has a one-step mind and is much more likely to simply beef up his escorts to fight off such raids in future rather than use such honeypots to dish out disproportionate levels of damage. You'll have to test it more but if you notice he is beefing up escorts in order to fight off your raids then you have learnt something of major value to you in terms of being able to cause him to commit his forces unwisely ( something I managed to get 1EyedJacks to do a lot of in my game vs him with respect to his convoys ).
c) If I had left them uncovered and had not anticipated your move I would now know that you were likely to attack targets of opportunity. That would lead me to think that if I could "manufacture" such targets of opportunity I could lead you to engage them on YOUR terms using YOUR initiative to waltz into my trap. Again though ChezDaJez seems to be a one-step thinker so that will work against him forming such a logic chain.
Overall you may get away with it. It just sticks in my craw to give such important information about one's thinking style and relative judgement of risks/benefits away for just a few AOs. That is cheaply-won knowledge for Japan. Fortunately it looks like ChezDaJez won't take advantage of it but others would.
As to the quest for autovictory... No, I think that's already lost. If you look at the first day strikes, lack of second day strikes combined with the uncovering of the AOs ( I assumed the lack of second day strikes was to cover for the detaching of 2 or more CVs for a sprint to cover "bait AOs" --- but obviously couldn't say so here until the turn played out.... I have used precisely such a gambit and sunk Allied CVs in return for a single "bait AO and DD" before returning to pound PH with 4 CVs on Day 3 and 6 on Day 4... so I was against it because it closely matched the setup of a trap I've laid to great success before.... but it wouldn't have been fair to outline the reasons WHY I was against it so much until it played out ) and the lack of trap in that plan I think it is fair to say Canoerebal has the measure of ChezDaJez. The mismatch is far less than with QBall who simply never formulated a coherent strategic layer plan but Japan can't go on a strength vs strength match even in Scenario 2. Chez will make advances but he doesn't appear sneaky and that will limit his ability to make up for materiel mismatches. Of course maybe he is ueber-sneaky and this is just an uncharacteristic error but it does appear that neither player here is camouflaging their true intentions at the beginning of the game and is playing as they intend to continue playing.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Well, that's that settled then.
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Cap Mandrake
- Posts: 20737
- Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2002 8:37 am
- Location: Southern California
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
I was one of the naysayers for the same reasons Nemo mentioned, but it was my fear that Canoe was going to charge by Midway and enage the AO's within potential range of the KB...it wasn't so crazy to go North along the planned escape route and sink the AO's if they showed up...which is what happened.
On this notion of the disclosure of a playing style early in the game...that might be true if he were powerless to change future behavior. This is a long game and it is certainly possible to modify one's behavior to adapt the playing style of one's opponent.
Re. the escape of Lex, the possible pursuit of Lexington certainly seems like it might work. Given the value of the prize, putting off some operation for 7-10 d seems worth it. Chez can detach his shorter legged DD's and head directly for the Dutch Harbor/Anchorage. He can even divide into two groups with some risk to increase his chance of detection.
Re. his previous incaution, yes. There is no way the AO's should have been that close to Midway without the carriers. Just because midway doesnt have bombers on Dec 7 doesnt ean they wont be there on Dec 10
BTW, kibitizing is almost as fun as playing the game during a big battle. [:)]
On this notion of the disclosure of a playing style early in the game...that might be true if he were powerless to change future behavior. This is a long game and it is certainly possible to modify one's behavior to adapt the playing style of one's opponent.
Re. the escape of Lex, the possible pursuit of Lexington certainly seems like it might work. Given the value of the prize, putting off some operation for 7-10 d seems worth it. Chez can detach his shorter legged DD's and head directly for the Dutch Harbor/Anchorage. He can even divide into two groups with some risk to increase his chance of detection.
Re. his previous incaution, yes. There is no way the AO's should have been that close to Midway without the carriers. Just because midway doesnt have bombers on Dec 7 doesnt ean they wont be there on Dec 10
BTW, kibitizing is almost as fun as playing the game during a big battle. [:)]
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
...and sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Cap,
Aye, you are right about the possibility of changing playing styles... I suppose my view is that someone who doesn't have the guile to disguise their play style early on is hardly likely to make a successful change later on. Not always true of course but a good rule of thumb IMO.
Desicat,
Aye, but sometimes it is no harm to look deeper so that you can tell if it is more than a cigar.
The thing about habits is that if you aren't used to looking deeper then you don't do so as a habit and so you only ever see the surface of the thing, blind to what may lie underneath. If you are alive to the possibility that there is more then you can still look beneath the surface, see nothing and say, "It is what it seems." whilst also being certain not to be caught out if it is not what it seems.
You don't spot traps unless you check for them. I'm not sure they were being checked for here, hence I spoke.
Aye, you are right about the possibility of changing playing styles... I suppose my view is that someone who doesn't have the guile to disguise their play style early on is hardly likely to make a successful change later on. Not always true of course but a good rule of thumb IMO.
Desicat,
Aye, but sometimes it is no harm to look deeper so that you can tell if it is more than a cigar.
The thing about habits is that if you aren't used to looking deeper then you don't do so as a habit and so you only ever see the surface of the thing, blind to what may lie underneath. If you are alive to the possibility that there is more then you can still look beneath the surface, see nothing and say, "It is what it seems." whilst also being certain not to be caught out if it is not what it seems.
You don't spot traps unless you check for them. I'm not sure they were being checked for here, hence I spoke.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Well, that's that settled then.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Nemo, I will say that since Chez is former military he may subconsciously not view assets as expendable for "traps". That may or may not be useful for CR's future plans.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
If I was the Japanese player I would be appalled losing those AOs. They are big and fast and cannot be replaced. You are correct in that this will limit his long-range threat ability.
Your move was somewhat atypical of your style Dan and this is why I REALLY thought it was an excellent choice/risk. It was highly risky and you won the roll of the dice for little cost. Gaining a victory like this early in the conflict is a real downer for the Japanese player.
EXCELLENT work!
Huzzah.
Your move was somewhat atypical of your style Dan and this is why I REALLY thought it was an excellent choice/risk. It was highly risky and you won the roll of the dice for little cost. Gaining a victory like this early in the conflict is a real downer for the Japanese player.
EXCELLENT work!
Huzzah.
Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.
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bradfordkay
- Posts: 8686
- Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2002 8:39 am
- Location: Olympia, WA
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Nemo, I think that you are reading a little too much into this. I have been playing against Chez for several years now. He does occasionally set very wicked traps. Other times his operations are very straight forward. Don't get caught in the trap of thinking that you can judge a player's style from the first week of gameplay; that would be a huge mistake IMO.
fair winds,
Brad
Brad
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Concur.
Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Well, if nothing else, the destruction of the AOs is certainly enriching the discussion in what is sure to be a great AAR. My guess is that Lexington not only scored a nice coup, but will live to tell the story. Good luck, Canoe. (I'm NOT reading Chez's AAR, so all "predictions" on my part are not based on any knowledge of what he intends)
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
Cap,
Aye, you are right about the possibility of changing playing styles... I suppose my view is that someone who doesn't have the guile to disguise their play style early on is hardly likely to make a successful change later on. Not always true of course but a good rule of thumb IMO.
Desicat,
Aye, but sometimes it is no harm to look deeper so that you can tell if it is more than a cigar.
The thing about habits is that if you aren't used to looking deeper then you don't do so as a habit and so you only ever see the surface of the thing, blind to what may lie underneath. If you are alive to the possibility that there is more then you can still look beneath the surface, see nothing and say, "It is what it seems." whilst also being certain not to be caught out if it is not what it seems.
You don't spot traps unless you check for them. I'm not sure they were being checked for here, hence I spoke.
"Bluff early and get caught." Amarillo Slim Preston
I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.
Sigismund of Luxemburg
Sigismund of Luxemburg
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
All this deep double thinking reminds me of something, hopefully CR doesn't fall for one of the 'Classic Blunders' and go all in in China!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQNHBUqfLnM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQNHBUqfLnM
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
I concur with John 3rd that a large portion of the value of this move is how much it goes against CR's conservative play vs Q-Ball in his last game. Thus, Chez will be uncertain whether CR plans a more aggressive style in this game or not. That combined with the material impact of the loss of the AOs will work to slow down and worry Chez. He'll be thinking "what if" more often, which is good.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
It was very daring an totally unpredictable. LIKED IT A LOT!
Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.
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Canoerebel
- Posts: 21099
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2002 11:21 pm
- Location: Northwestern Georgia, USA
- Contact:
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
I thought I had attached the turn with my last email to Steve, so while he was awaiting a turn from me, I was awaiting one from him. Oops, that cost us a day.
Meanwhile, prompted by Nemo's insight into possible traps, I went back to check the last sighting of the KB (near French Frigate, on the day I ordered Lex to steam north) and found...just four IJN carriers in the mouse-over. Two are not accounted for! Might Steve have detached two and sent them north to ambush Lex? I might find out next turn. If Lex survives next turn, I'll have to be careful to shield Lex using those NoPac DDs.
Meanwhile, in a possible counter-counter-move arrangement, Saratoga is now in NoPac...so there's a chance she and Lex could rendezvous to deal with two raiding IJN carriers, if any there are!
I don't know what's going on!
Meanwhile, prompted by Nemo's insight into possible traps, I went back to check the last sighting of the KB (near French Frigate, on the day I ordered Lex to steam north) and found...just four IJN carriers in the mouse-over. Two are not accounted for! Might Steve have detached two and sent them north to ambush Lex? I might find out next turn. If Lex survives next turn, I'll have to be careful to shield Lex using those NoPac DDs.
Meanwhile, in a possible counter-counter-move arrangement, Saratoga is now in NoPac...so there's a chance she and Lex could rendezvous to deal with two raiding IJN carriers, if any there are!
I don't know what's going on!
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Perhaps he just detached Shokaku to head for port given her torp damage. You shouldn't count on such a benign reason, but it's possible.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
Waste of resources if he just rushes into the Northern Pacific to chase a single American carrier. I'd be afraid you'd have another trick up your sleeve (and god knows, die rolls can kill you) - and why put two carriers at risk. He may have split them off to support CENTPAC invasions or perhaps sent them South to deal with your interuptions at Talugi & Rabaul - so I wouldn't be too worries.
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
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Canoerebel
- Posts: 21099
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RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
12/11/41
NoPac: It's been a LONG time since I've used "max" speed over any distance, but Lex hoofted it to within seven hexes of Dutch Harbor. That's moving! She suffered only very slight wear-and-tear. She'll proceed to a point NE of DH tomorrow. By then, she'll be behind the flanker DDs, so one more day and I think Lex will be safe. Not to mention that Saratoga could probably meet up with her in two days if needed.
Borneo: That large IJ amphibious force that I thought might be making for Mersing or possibly Palembang (which wouldn't make sense this early, I realize) is two hexes from Singkawang, which makes alot of sense. Force Z (PofW, Repulse, Danae, Dragon, Durban, Mauritius, Boise, and eight DD) are just a hex away. I've posted five fighter units at Singkawang and Kuching, and Force Z will take position at the former. I don't think Steve has any carrier cover to speak of, and I think he's a bit too far forward at this point. The Mini-KB, meanwhile, is in the Celebes Sea about three hexes SE of Jolo, which just fell to the Japanese.
Sumatra: The Allies have 87 AV at Palembang. Two more patrol squadrons are joining the airlift. I have troops coming from Borneo, Java, Malaya, and Sumatra. It's fun! (I just hope it proves effective; and I wished I had started on turn one...)
Miscellaneous: Japanese combat TFs, subs, and aircraft have been picking off fleeing Allied ships from near Tori Shima all the way to near Java. Nothing out of the ordinary, here, so I haven't commented much, but for the record should clarify that Steve has been doing a good job. Houston, however, is north of Marcus and probably will make good her escape to the Aleutian zone.
NoPac: It's been a LONG time since I've used "max" speed over any distance, but Lex hoofted it to within seven hexes of Dutch Harbor. That's moving! She suffered only very slight wear-and-tear. She'll proceed to a point NE of DH tomorrow. By then, she'll be behind the flanker DDs, so one more day and I think Lex will be safe. Not to mention that Saratoga could probably meet up with her in two days if needed.
Borneo: That large IJ amphibious force that I thought might be making for Mersing or possibly Palembang (which wouldn't make sense this early, I realize) is two hexes from Singkawang, which makes alot of sense. Force Z (PofW, Repulse, Danae, Dragon, Durban, Mauritius, Boise, and eight DD) are just a hex away. I've posted five fighter units at Singkawang and Kuching, and Force Z will take position at the former. I don't think Steve has any carrier cover to speak of, and I think he's a bit too far forward at this point. The Mini-KB, meanwhile, is in the Celebes Sea about three hexes SE of Jolo, which just fell to the Japanese.
Sumatra: The Allies have 87 AV at Palembang. Two more patrol squadrons are joining the airlift. I have troops coming from Borneo, Java, Malaya, and Sumatra. It's fun! (I just hope it proves effective; and I wished I had started on turn one...)
Miscellaneous: Japanese combat TFs, subs, and aircraft have been picking off fleeing Allied ships from near Tori Shima all the way to near Java. Nothing out of the ordinary, here, so I haven't commented much, but for the record should clarify that Steve has been doing a good job. Houston, however, is north of Marcus and probably will make good her escape to the Aleutian zone.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
RE: Tokyo Rose was a Hussy!
I hope those guys don't freeze to death up there - that's a pretty good run from where they started!
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...